Jeffrey C Neal

Jeffrey C Neal
University of Bristol | UB · School of Geographical Sciences

PhD University of Southampton

About

132
Publications
39,244
Reads
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7,322
Citations
Additional affiliations
June 2007 - present
University of Bristol
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
October 2003 - July 2007
University of Southampton
Position
  • PhD Student
Education
October 2003 - December 2007
University of Southampton
Field of study
  • Geography

Publications

Publications (132)
Chapter
Full-text available
The term ‘system’ is prominently used in connection with resilience to describe the associated processes of resistance, absorption, accommodation, and recovery to hazard exposure. Essentially, these associated processes are complex in nature but, in an elementary sense, they are maintained through preservation and restoration of essential structure...
Article
Full-text available
Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolut...
Article
Full-text available
Geodetic altimeters provide unique observations of the river surface longitudinal profile due to their long repeat periods and densely spaced ground tracks. This information is valuable for calibrating hydraulic model parameters, and thus, for producing reliable simulations of water level for flood forecasting and river management, particularly in...
Chapter
Floods can be devastating to society and the environment. Recent events around the globe have been disastrous and broke records in economic losses. Flood disasters often operate at spatial and temporal scales that far exceed local and regional, or even national, assessment and response capabilities. There is no doubt that remote sensing observation...
Article
Full-text available
The growing worldwide impact of flood events has motivated the development and application of global flood hazard models (GFHMs). These models have become useful tools for flood risk assessment and management, especially in regions where little local hazard information is available. One of the key uncertainties associated with GFHMs is the estimati...
Article
Many dryland rivers are terminal systems, with small channels undergoing prominent downstream size reductions before ending on channelless floodplains, in wetlands, or at playa margins. Spaceborne Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) provide potential for assessing subtle topographic and hydrodynamic changes in these low-gradient, low-relief settings, b...
Article
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This paper uses a coupled hydrodynamic agent-based model (HABM) to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response. This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and the NetLogo agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation o...
Article
Full-text available
Global flood models integrate flood maps of constant probability in space, ignoring the correlation between sites and thus potentially misestimating the risk posed by extreme events. Stochastic flood models alleviate this issue through the simulation of flood events with a realistic spatial structure, yet their proliferation at large scales has his...
Preprint
Hydrodynamic floodplain inundation models have been popular for many years and used extensively in engineering applications. Continental scale flood studies are now achievable using such models due to the development of terrain elevation, hydrography and river width datasets with global coverage. However, deploying flood models at any scale is time...
Article
Full-text available
Levee failures due to floods often cause considerable economic damage and life losses in inundated dike-protected areas, and significantly change flood hazard upstream and downstream the breach location during the event. We present a new extension for the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model which allows levee breaching along embankments in fully two-dim...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. This paper presents a new flood risk behaviour model developed using a coupled Hydrodynamic Agent-Based Model (HABM). This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP Hydrodynamic Model and the NetLogo (NL) agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood...
Article
Full-text available
The execution of hydraulic models at large spatial scales has yielded a step change in our understanding of flood risk. Yet their necessary simplification through the use of coarsened terrain data results in an artificially smooth digital elevation model with diminished representation of flood defense structures. Current approaches in dealing with...
Article
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This study evaluates and compares two-dimensional (2D) numerical models of different complexities by testing them on a floodplain inundation event that occurred on the Secchia River (Italy). We test 2D capabilities of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS (5.0.3), implemented using various grid sizes (25–100 m) based on 1-m DEM resolution. As expected, the best...
Article
Full-text available
Freely available Global Digital Elevation Models (GDEMs) are essential for many scientific and humanitarian applications. Recently, TanDEM-X 90 has been released with a global coverage at 3 arc sec resolution. Its release is sure to generate keen interest as it provides an alternative to the widely used Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM,...
Article
In this paper we attempt to produce a first hydrodynamic model of the middle reach of the Congo river system in order to understand what controls this river’s unique bimodal flood pulse. The model covers the area between Kisangani and Kinshasa on the main stem and includes the major tributaries and the Cuvette Centrale wetland, one of the world’s l...
Preprint
Hydrodynamic floodplain inundation models have been popular for many years and used extensively in engineering applications. Continental scale flood studies are now achievable using such models due to the development of terrain elevation, hydrography and river width datasets with global coverage. However, deploying flood models at any scale is time...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasts of tropical cyclones have seen rapid improvements in recent years as expanding computational capacity permits more runs of finer resolution meteorological models with increasing representation of physical processes. However, the utilization of a hydrodynamic component in these models is often neglected, meaning flood forecasts typically o...
Article
Full-text available
Current estimates of global flood exposure are made using datasets that distribute population counts homogenously across large lowland floodplain areas. When intersected with simulated water depths, this results in a significant mis-estimation. Here, we use new highly resolved population information to show that, in reality, humans make more ration...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we seek to understand the nature of flood spatial dependence over the conterminous United States. We extend an existing conditional multivariate statistical model to enable its application to this large and heterogenous region and apply it to a 40-year data set of ~2,400 U.S. Geological Survey gauge series records to simulate 1,000 ye...
Article
Flood risk, particularly in Small Island Developing States, is increasing. Although spaceborne Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have provided a capacity to model flooding at the global scale, their relatively coarse resolution (~90 m) has led to a limited ability to provide fine-scale flood assessments in smaller catchments such as those in Small Is...
Article
Full-text available
Open-access global Digital Elevation Models (DEM) have been crucial in enabling flood studies in data-sparse areas. Poor resolution (>30 m), significant vertical errors and the fact that these DEMs are over a decade old continue to hamper our ability to accurately estimate flood hazard. The limited availability of high-accuracy DEMs dictate that da...
Article
The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission has long been used as a source topographic information for flood hazard models, especially in data-sparse areas. Error corrected versions have been produced, culminating in the latest global error reduced digital elevation model (DEM)—the Multi-Error-Removed-Improved-Terrain (MERIT) DEM. This study investigates...
Poster
Full-text available
A poster submitted to the ESSA SSC 2018, Stockholm, regarding the preliminary method and analysis for a robust framework to represent and support the evaluation of emergent properties within complex flood hazard systems. The poster was the winner of the best poster award at the conference.
Article
Short- to medium-range flood forecasts are central to predicting and mitigating the impact of flooding across the world. However, producing reliable forecasts and reducing forecast uncertainties remains challenging, especially in poorly gauged river basins. The growing availability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-derived flood image databases (e....
Article
After the publication of our article Testing the skill of numerical hydraulic modeling to simulate spatiotemporal flooding patterns in the Logone floodplain, Cameroon’ in the Journal of Hydrology, volume 539 (2016) 265-280, we discovered an error in the simulations utilized for the paper. Specifically, a typo in an input file meant that rainfall wa...
Poster
Full-text available
This poster represents the latest developments of the GLOFRIM framework, including the addition of WFLOW as well as first results of a two-directional coupled set-up with PCR-GLOBWB, LISFLOOD-FP, and MODFLOW for the Niger Inland Delta.
Chapter
In this chapter we review the underlying challenges that have, until recently, precluded the development of global flood models at the global scale. The solutions that have emerged in response to these challenges are presented, detailing how significant advances in recent years have enabled a shift from local to global‐scale models. Examples of cur...
Article
Full-text available
The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years....
Article
Full-text available
Flood inundation models are increasingly used for a wide variety of river and coastal management applications. Nevertheless, the computational effort to run these models remains a substantial constraint on their application. In this study four developments to the LISFLOOD-FP 2D flood inundation model have been documented that: 1) refine the paralle...
Preprint
Full-text available
The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. He...
Chapter
Flood modeling at global scales represents a revolution in hydraulic science and has the potential to transform decision-making and risk management in a wide variety of fields. Such modeling draws on a rich heritage of algorithm and data set development in hydraulic modeling over the last 20 years, but conceptually the challenges of global flood mo...
Poster
Full-text available
Conference poster summarizing the main work done so far in the project. It shows the assets and work flow of GLOFRIM, a validation of discharge simulations, and a benchmark of inundation extent simulated by two different coupled set-ups.
Article
Full-text available
Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems, and socioeconomic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. How...
Article
Full-text available
We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB as well as the hydrodyn...
Article
Full-text available
To increase the representation of physical processes in inundation modelling, current research approaches aim to integrate both hydrological and hydrodynamic models. A previous study by Hoch et al. (2017) showed that spatially explicit coupling approaches can outperform stand-alone runs by single-purpose models as they combine spatially distributed...
Article
Full-text available
Spaceborne digital elevation models (DEMs) are a fundamental input for many geoscience studies, but they still include nonnegligible height errors. Here we introduce a high-accuracy global DEM at 3″ resolution (~90 m at the equator) by eliminating major error components from existing DEMs. We separated absolute bias, stripe noise, speckle noise, an...
Article
Full-text available
Study region: Terrain and hydrological data are scarce in many African countries. The coarse spatial resolution of freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission elevation data and the absence of flow gauges on flood-prone reaches, such as the Oti River studied here, make flood inundation modelling challenging in West Africa. Study focus: A flo...
Article
Full-text available
Inflow discharge and outflow stage estimates for hydraulic flood models are generally derived from river gauge data. Uncertainties in the measured inflow data and the neglect of rainfall-runoff contributions to the modelled domain downstream of the gauging locations can have a significant impact on these estimated ‘whole reach' inflows and conseque...
Article
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data have proven to be a very useful source of information for the calibration of flood inundation models. Previous studies have focused on assigning uncertainties to SAR images in order to improve flood forecast systems (e.g. Giustarini et al. (2015) and Stephens et al. (2012)). This paper investigates whether the ti...
Article
As modeling capabilities at regional and global scales improve, questions remain regarding the appropriate process representation required to accurately simulate multichannel river hydraulics. This study uses the hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP to simulate patterns of water surface elevation (WSE), depth, and inundation extent across a ∼90 km, anabr...
Article
Full-text available
Single satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are now regularly used to estimate hydraulic model parameters such as channel roughness, depth and water slope. However despite channel geometry being critical to the application of hydraulic models and poorly known a priori, it is not frequently the object of calibration. This paper presents a u...
Poster
Full-text available
Predicting the Effects of Man-Made Fishing Canals on Floodplain Inundation – A Modelling Study
Article
Have you ever experienced rain where it rained so hard or for so long that you feared you may soon be up to your eyeballs in water? Sadly, many people in the world have witnessed this firsthand, and this is likely to increase due to climate change unless we do something to prepare for flooding disasters. Some areas are more prone to floods than oth...
Article
Full-text available
Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now...
Article
Flooding is governed by the amount and timing of water spilling out of channels and moving across adjacent land, often with little warning. At global scales, flood hazard is typically inferred from streamflow, precipitation or from satellite images, yielding a largely incomplete picture. Thus, at present, the floodplain inundation variables, which...
Article
The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission planned for launch in 2020 will map river elevations and inundated area globally for rivers >100 m wide. In advance of this launch, we here evaluated the possibility of estimating discharge in ungauged rivers using synthetic, daily "remote sensing" measurements derived from hydraulic m...
Article
Recent innovations in hydraulic modeling have enabled global simulation of rivers, including simulation of their coupled wetlands and floodplains. Accurate simulations of floodplains using these approaches may imply tremendous advances in global hydrologic studies and in biogeochemical cycling. One such innovation is to explicitly treat sub-grid ch...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate measurement of water surface height is key to many fields in hydrology and limnology. Satellite radar and laser altimetry have been shown to be useful means of obtaining such data where no ground gauging stations exist, and the accuracy of different satellite instruments is now reasonably well understood. Past validation studies have shown...
Article
The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the ac...
Preprint
Full-text available
Single satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are now regularly used to estimate hydraulic model parameters such as channel roughness, depth and water slope. However, despite channel geometry being critical to the application of hydraulic models and poorly known a priori, it is not frequently the object of calibration. This paper presents a...
Article
Full-text available
Global flood hazard models have recently become a reality thanks to the release of open access global digital elevation models, the development of simplified and highly efficient flow algorithms, and the steady increase in computational power. In this commentary we argue that although the availability of open access global terrain data has been cri...
Chapter
These computer-based practical exercises compliment the preceding chapters by allowing users to put into practice some of the ideas they have been reading about. The tasks in this chapter introduce users to numerical flood modeling using both test data and a real-life example. In Task 1 users explore the effects as well as pros and cons of includin...
Chapter
This chapter provides an overview of global and low-cost topographic data to support flood studies, with a focus on usefulness of shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) topography in supporting two-dimensional hydraulic modeling of floods. In particular, flood propagation and inundation modeling of a 10-km reach of the River Dee (United Kingdom) w...
Chapter
Floods are no doubt a major hazard and the risks they pose are increasing due to shifts in meteorological forcings, population pressures, as well as anthropogenic change to riverine landscapes. Flood waves and related processes are observed globally, through either river gauging networks or remote sensing acquisitions. River gauging stations are de...
Article
Advances in remote sensing have enabled hydraulic models to run at fine scale resolutions, producing precise flood inundation predictions. However, running models at finer resolutions increases their computational expense, reducing the feasibility of running the multiple model realisations required to undertake uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it...