Jeffrey S. Dukes

Carnegie Institution for Science · Department of Global Ecology

Global warming, in combination with altered precipitation patterns, is accelerating global soil respiration, which could in turn accelerate climate change. The biological mechanisms through which soil carbon (C) responds to climate are not well understood, limiting our ability to predict future global soil respiration rates. As part of a climate ma...

Past research has shown that plants possess the capacity to alter their instantaneous response of photosynthesis to temperature in response to a longer-term change in temperature (i.e., acclimate). This acclimation is typically the result of processes that influence net photosynthesis (Anet), including leaf biochemical processes such as the maximum...

In the face of ongoing and projected climatic changes, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) have produced a wealth of data about the effects of precipitation changes on soils. In response, researchers have under-taken a number of synthetic efforts. Several meta-analyses have been conducted, each revealing new aspects of soil responses to p...

Report of the Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee, Market Risk Advisory Committee of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent, intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America (Canada, USA and Mexico). Accelerating climate-change hazards pose significant risks to the well-being of North American populations and the natural, managed and human systems on which they...

Trait differences between invasive plants and the plants in their recipient communities moderate the impact of invaders on community composition. Callery pear ( Pyrus calleryana Decne.) is a fast-growing, stress-tolerant tree native to China that has been widely planted for its ornamental value. In recent decades, P. calleryana has naturalized thro...

Aim Native biodiversity is threatened by the spread of non‐native invasive species. Many studies demonstrate that invasions reduce local biodiversity but we lack an understanding of how impacts vary across environments at the macroscale. Using ~11,500 vegetation surveys from ecosystems across the United States, we quantified how the relationship be...

While the impacts of global drivers such as international trade, population growth, technological development or climate change on local-level pricing, decision making, biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) have received strong and increasing attention over the recent decades, relatively few studies have examined how impacts on local BES due to...

Invasive species science has heavily focused on the invasive agent. However, management to protect native species also requires a proactive approach focused on resident communities, and the features affecting their vulnerability to invasion impacts. Vulnerability is likely the result of factors acting across spatial scales, from local to regional,...

Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO2, temperature, nutrient and water...

Supporting information for publication “When things get MESI: the Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative – a coordinated effort to synthesize terrestrial global change experiments” by Van Sundert, Leuzinger et al. (2023).

In a changing climate, the future survival and productivity of species relies on individual populations to respond to shifting environmental conditions. Many tree species including northern red oak (Quercus rubra) exhibit phenotypic plasticity, the ability to respond to changes in environmental conditions at within‐generation timescales, through va...

effects of experimental eCO2, warming, nutrient addition and/or water addition/removal on carbon and nutrient cycle related variables We welcome contributions to the database on github.com/MESI-organization/mesi-db, or by email. When data are used, please cite both the database doi as well as the accompanying manuscript: Van Sundert, K., Leuzing...

The degree to which elevated CO2 concentrations (e[CO2]) increase the amount of carbon (C) assimilated by vegetation plays a key role in climate change. However, due to the short‐term nature of CO2 enrichment experiments and the lack of reconciliation between different ecological scales, the effect of e[CO2] on plant biomass stocks remains a major...

Significance International concern about the consequences of human-induced global environmental changes has prompted a renewed focus on reducing ecological effects of biological invasions, climate change, and nutrient pollution. Our results show that the combined effects of nonnative species invasions and abiotic global environmental changes are of...

In democracies around the world, societies have demonstrated that elections can have major consequences for the environment. In Colombia, the 2022 presidential elections will take place at a time when progress towards peace has stalled and socioeconomic, security, and environmental conditions have deteriorated. The recent declines in these conditio...

Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to...

Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs), or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitat...

North America has accumulated more naturalized species, or “alien species that form self-sustaining populations in new regions,” than any other continent (5958; 3513 of which come from outside the continent). Over the last 35 years, North America has seen a rapid increase in the number of plant invasions; species have arrived through the horticultu...

Tropical ecosystems strongly influence Earth's climate and weather patterns. Most tropical ecosystems remain warm year‐round; nonetheless, their plants undergo seasonal cycles of carbon and water exchange. Previous research has shown the importance of precipitation and radiation as drivers of the seasonality of photosynthetic activity in the tropic...

Terrestrial ecosystems regulate Earth’s climate through water, energy, and biogeochemical transformations. Despite a key role in regulating the Earth system, terrestrial ecology has historically been underrepresented in the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to understand and project global environmental change. Ecology and Earth system model...

The significant portion of global terrestrial biodiversity harboured in the mountains is under increasing threat from various anthropogenic impacts. Protecting fragile mountain ecosystems requires understanding how these human disturbances affect biodiversity. As roads and railways are extended further into mountain ecosystems, understanding the lo...

Tropical vegetation influences local, regional, and global climates, largely through its relationship with the atmosphere, including seasonal patterns of photosynthesis and transpiration. Removal and replacement of natural vegetation can alter both of these processes. In the Amazon, land use/land cover change (LULCC; e.g. deforestation) started dec...

Crops worldwide are simultaneously affected by weeds, which reduce yield, and by climate change, which can negatively or positively affect both crop and weed species. While the individual effects of environmental change and of weeds on crop yield have been assessed, the combined effects have not been broadly characterized. To explore the simultaneo...

Mean surface temperatures have increased globally by ~0.7 °C per century since 1900 and 0.16 °C per decade since 1970 (Levinson and Fettig 2014). Most of this warming is believed to result from increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activity. Temperature increases have been greater in winter than in summer, an...

In this chapter, we describe current understanding of and identify research gaps on how invasive species directly, and indirectly, affect ecosystem processes. Specifically, we focus on how invasive species can alter the terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles and how changes to these terrestrial cycles cascade to affect water quantity a...

Ongoing climate change is increasing rainfall variability in many parts of the world; in particular, the heaviest rainfall events are becoming heavier. In terrestrial ecosystems, nitrogen deposition is increasing as a result of emissions from fossil fuel burning and volatilization of nitrogen‐based fertilizers. These changes in the timing and rate...

While all sectors of the economy can be impacted by climate variability and change, the agricultural sector is arguably the most tightly coupled to climate where changes in precipitation and temperature directly control plant growth and yield, as well as livestock production. This paper analyzes the direct and cascading effects of temperature, prec...

The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a collaborative effort to provide professionals, decision makers, and the public with information about how climate change affects state and local interests throughout Indiana, USA. This assessment effort has three interrelated goals: (1) analyze and document the best available climate chan...

Theories of plant invasions predict that plant communities should be more easily invaded when resources increase and/or competition decreases. We tested this with an experimentally introduced plant population by manipulating precipitation and resident community biomass. We used a spatially explicit demographic approach to develop a new population‐l...

Reductions in the diurnal temperature range (DTR), for example, greater increases in daily minimum than maximum temperatures, have occurred for several decades and are projected to continue over this century, which could affect terrestrial carbon (C) cycling. Carbon‐use efficiency of plants (CUEp) and ecosystems (CUEe) represents the capacity of pl...

As Earth’s climate rapidly changes, species range shifts are considered key to species persistence. However, some range-shifting species will alter community structure and ecosystem processes. By adapting existing invasion risk assessment frameworks, we can identify characteristics shared with high-impact introductions and thus predict potential im...

Abstract. In the face of ongoing and projected precipitation changes, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) have produced a wealth of data about the effects of precipitation changes on soils. In response, researchers have undertaken a number of synthetic efforts. Several meta-analyses have been conducted, each revealing new aspects of soil...

Thermal acclimation of plant respiration is highly relevant to climate projections; when included in models, it reduces the future rate of atmospheric CO 2 rise. Although all living plant tissues respire, few studies have examined differences in acclimation among tissues, and leaf responses have received greater attention than stems and roots. Here...

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestri...

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestri...

Background and aims: Future shifts in precipitation regimes and temperature are expected to affect plant traits dramatically. To date, many studies have explored the effects of acute stresses, but few have investigated the consequences of prolonged shifts in climatic conditions on plant growth and chemistry. Methods: Plant size and metabolite pr...

The role of plant diversity in reducing invasions has generated decades of debate. Diverse communities might be more resistant to invasion because the communities contain resident species that are functionally similar to the invader (limiting similarity), or multiple species use the range of available resources more effectively (complementarity) th...

Climate change has increased global mean surface temperatures and altered hydrological processes, and projections suggest that these changes will accelerate. As seasonal precipitation patterns change, so will the soil resources available for plants. In the midwestern United States, winter temperatures and precipitation are expected to increase, whi...

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration should stimulate biomass production directly via biochemical stimulation of carbon assimilation, and indirectly via water savings caused by increased plant water-use efficiency. Because of these water savings, the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) should be stronger at drier sites, yet large differences...

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data fro...

Climate change is accelerating global soil respiration, which could in turn accelerate climate change. The biological mechanisms through which soil carbon (C) responds to climate are not well understood, limiting our ability to predict future global soil respiration rates. As part of a climate manipulation experiment, we tested whether differences...

Colombia, one of the world’s most species- rich nations, is currently undergoing a profound social transition: the end of a decades- long conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC. The peace agreement process will likely trans-form the country’s physical and socioeconomic landscapes at a time when humans are altering E...

Triose phosphate utilization (TPU)-limited photosynthesis occurs when carbon export from the Calvin-Benson cycle cannot keep pace with carbon inputs and processing. This condition is poorly constrained by observations but may become an increasingly important driver of global carbon cycling under future climate scenarios. However, the consequences o...

Realistic representations of plant carbon exchange processes are necessary to reliably simulate biosphere‐atmosphere feedbacks. These processes are known to vary over time and space, though the drivers of the underlying rates are still widely debated in the literature. Here, we measured leaf carbon exchange in >500 individuals of 98 species from th...

In the coming decades, Indiana’s changing climate will bring with it higher temperatures, longer heat waves, more extremely hot days and more frequent extreme storm events. Those changes will affect the health of Hoosiers in every part of the state. The pathways that lead to human health impacts are both direct and indirect. Direct effects include...

Predicting the effects of climate change on tree species and communities is critical for understanding the future state of our forested ecosystems. We used a fully factorial precipitation (3 levels; ambient, -50% ambient, +50% ambient) by warming (4 levels; up to +4°C) experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern United States to study...

The structure and function of soil microbiomes often change in response to experimental climate manipulations, suggesting an important role in ecosystem feedbacks. However, it is difficult to know if microbes are responding directly to environmental changes or are more strongly impacted by plant responses. We investigated soil microbial responses t...

Leaf canopy carbon exchange processes, such as photosynthesis and respiration, are substantial components of the global carbon cycle. Climate models base their simulations of photosynthesis and respiration on an empirical understanding of the underlying biochemical processes, and the responses of those processes to environmental drivers. As such, d...

While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax ), th...

Environmental stresses not only influence production of plant metabolites but could also modify their resorption during leaf senescence. The production-resorption dynamics of polyphenolic tannins, a class of defense compound whose ecological role extends beyond tissue senescence, could amplify the influence of climate on ecosystem processes. We stu...

Although encroaching woody plants have reduced the global extent of grasslands, continuing increases in soil nitrogen availability could slow this trend by favoring resident herbaceous species. At the same time, projected increases in rainfall variability could promote woody encroachment by aligning spatiotemporal patterns of soil moisture availabi...

Above- and belowground carbon (C) stores of terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to environmental change. Ecosystem C balances in response to environmental changes have been quantified at individual sites, but the magnitudes and directions of these responses along environmental gradients remain uncertain. Here we show the responses of ecosystem C...

Photosynthetic temperature acclimation is a commonly observed process that is increasingly being incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs). While short-term acclimation has been shown to increase carbon storage in the future, it is uncertain whether acclimation will directly influence simulated future climate through biophysical mechanisms. Here...

Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty to projections of global carbon fluxes. Here we compared the representation of photosynthesis in seven TBMs by examining leaf and...

Significance One of the greatest challenges in projecting future shifts in the global climate is understanding how soil respiration rates will change with warming. Multiple experimental warming studies have explored this response, but no consensus has been reached. Based on a global synthesis of 27 experimental warming studies spanning nine biomes,...