Jean Thorey

• Réseau de Transport d' Electricité

Clustering of electric load time series with the energy score. conference website : https://www.wemcouncil.org/wp/icem2019/

We provide probabilistic forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) production, for several PV plants located in France up to 6 days of lead time, with a 30-min timestep. First, we derive multiple forecasts from numerical weather predictions (ECMWF and Météo France), including ensemble forecasts. Second, our parameter-free online learning technique generates a...

Our main objective is to improve the quality of photovoltaic power forecasts deriving from weather forecasts. Such forecasts are imperfect due to meteorological uncertainties and statistical modeling inaccuracies in the conversion of weather forecasts to power forecasts. First we gather several weather forecasts, secondly we generate multiple photo...

Ensemble forecasting resorts to multiple individual forecasts to produce a discrete probability distribution which accurately represents the uncertainties. Before every forecast, a weighted empirical distribution function is derived from the ensemble, so as to minimize the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We apply online learning techniq...

Medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks) of solar radiation are commonly assessed with a single forecast at a given location. In this paper, we forecast maps of surface solar irradiance, using ensembles of forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) with a 6-h timestep. We compare our forecasts with observations derive...

A Brain Computer Interface (BCI) is a system where a direct connection is established between the brain and a computer, providing a subject with a new communication channel. Unfortunately, BCI have many drawbacks: signal recording is problematic, brain signatures are non reproducible from individual to individual, etc. A dependent-BCI prototype, th...