jean-louis Foulley

jean-louis Foulley
Université de Montpellier | UM1 · Institut Montpelliérain Alexander Grothendieck

ScD

About

452
Publications
53,346
Reads
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5,940
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2012 - present
Université de Montpellier
Position
  • Professor (Associate)

Publications

Publications (452)
Preprint
Full-text available
This note proposes a procedure to convert a penalty criterion for assessing point scoreline forecasting in a soccer match into ranking points according to an exponential decay function of a penalty. This one is based on Foulley and Celeux (2018) proposal weighing two hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact pred...
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This table gives detailed forecasts of the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League matches: Group stage, Matches #6
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This tables gives detailed forecasts (WDL probabilities, Expected H & A goals, Scorelines probabilities) for the 2020-21 UEFA-C1 Matches #5.
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This table presents detailed forecasts of the 2020-21 UEFA Championsleague matches: group stage, week #4
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This table gives detailed forecasts for the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League, Group Stage, Week #3
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This table gives detailed forecasts for the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League matches , Group Stage, Week 2
Presentation
Full-text available
40th Virtual International Forecasting Symposium 2020 26-28 oct 2020 Assessment of probability forecasts of football outcomes based on scoring rules: example of the UEFA Champions League Group Stage Jean-Louis Foulley IMAG-UMR 5149, Université de Montpellier 34090 Montpellier -France This presentation reports measures of quality of probability fo...
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These tables present detailed forecasts of the 2020-21 UEFA- Champions League matches : Group Stage, Week 1
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This table gives forecasts of outcomes of the Lisbon tournament of the 2019-C1 play-off rounds
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These tables present detailed forecasts of 2019-20 UEFA C1 matches: Knock out stage, R16, Quarter and Semi-Finals
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This table presents probability forecasts of 2019-20 UEFA C1 matches: Quarter Finals , Lisbon Tournament
Presentation
Full-text available
Assessment of probability forecasts of football outcomes based on scoring rules: example of the UEFA Champions League Group Stage Jean-Louis Foulley IMAG, Université de Montpellier 34090 Montpellier -France This presentation reports measures of quality of probability forecasts for outcomes of the UEFA Champions League (C1) at the end of the group...
Article
Full-text available
Jean-Louis Foulley is a retired geneticist who worked at the French National Institute for Agronomical Research (INRA) in animal selection. He was influential for the use of Bayesian statistics in an important and historical domain of application of statistics. He largely benefited of longterm and crucial visiting scholarships in the US for his lat...
Article
La réussite de la reproduction est primordiale pour la rentabilité de l’élevage, elle constitue un préalable indispensable à toute production. L’aptitude à la reproduction d’un animal au cours d’une carrière dépend des caractères de précocité sexuelle, de fertilité et de prolificité, cette dernière pouvant être décomposée en termes de taux d’ovulat...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This talk presents an example of application of PC priors to a Bayes Factor computation. The basic principles underlying the so-called Penalising Complexity (PC) priors introduced by Simpson et al (2014) are recalled: i) Parsimony (Occam’s razor) with emphasis on a base model as a limiting value of a flexibility parameter, ii) Measure of complexity...
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This table gives probability forecasts ot the R16, L2 match outcomes of the 2019-20 UEFA C1 adjusted for the status of behind closed doors of some matches
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This table presents detailed probability forecasts for the outcomes of the 2019-2020 UEFA C1, Round of 16, 2nd leg, week 3
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This table presents detailed forecasts for the outcomes of 2019-20 UEFA C1 matches: Round of 16, 1st leg, week 2
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This table presents detailed probabilistic forecasts of scorelines and outcomes of the UEFA 2019-20 C1, Round of 16, 1st leg, Week 1
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These tables give an assessment of performance of probability forecasts for WDL outcomes of UEFA C1 groups stage matches over the last 4 seasons (2017 to 2020) using different scoring rules
Article
Full-text available
Users of NHST procedures have been repeatedly warned against misinterpretations of p-values and especially the application of a 0.05 threshold to declare statistical significance: see e.g. ASA statement. on statistical significance and p-values (Wasserstein and Lazar, 2016, TAS). This note comments on the recommendation made by Benjamin and Berger...
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This table presents an update of the forecasts and outcomes of the 2019-20 UEFA C1 matches, Group Stage, Week No 5
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This table presents detailed forecasts of the outcomes and scorelines of the 2019-20 UEFA C1 matches , Group Stage, Week No 6
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These tables provides detailed forecasts for the 2019-2020 UEFA C1 matches: Group Stage, Week No 5
Presentation
Full-text available
Reflecting about a magic formula converting P-values into Bayes Factors J-L Foulley Many statisticians and their professional associations have warned users of NHST procedures against misinterpretations of p-values and especially the automatic application of a 0.05 threshold to declare statistical significance: see eg ASA statement. on statistical...
Data
These tables provides observed and probability forecasts of the 2019-20 UEFA C1: group stage , week 4 and kindred probability score criteria of accuracy.
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This table shows forecasts of scorelines and outcomes of the 2019-20 CUEFA-C1, Group Stage, Week No 4.
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This table updates results of the GS, Week-3 C1 matches contrasting forecasts vs real outcomes and scorelines.
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This table gives detailed forecasts of the outcomes and scorelines of the UEFA 2019-20 C1 matches, Group Stage, Week 3
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This table provides an update of the outcomes of UEFA 2019-20 C1 , Group Stage, Week 2
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This table gives detailed forecasts for the UEFA 2019-20 C1 matches, group stage, week No2
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This table presents detailed information on forecasts of outcomes and score lines of the 2019-20 UEFA-C1 competition: Group stage, Week 1
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These tables give extra information on forecasts of the 2018-19 UEFA C1 final regarding the probability of Extra-time, Penalty kicks and the overall probability of winning the cup.
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This table provides probability forecasts of outcomes and scorelines for the 2018-19 UEFA C1 final match taking place June, 1st 2019 in Espadio Metropolitano, Madrid
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This table presents forecasts of the semifinals (2nd legs) of the 2018-19 UEFA championsleague.
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This table presents forecasts for the semi-finals (1st leg) of the 2018-19 UEFA Champions League.
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This table shows an overall view of forecasts and results of the UEFA 2018-19 C1 quarter finals
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This table displays results and forecasts of the UEFA 2018-19 C1 quarter finals.
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This table provides probability forecasts fot the 2018-C1 results and sscorelines of the quarter-finals, 1st leg
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These tables provide exact and forecast scorelines and 1X2 results for the 2018-19 UEFA C1: round of 16, 2nd leg, weeks 9 & 10
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These tables provide forecasts of outcomes (scorelines and 1X2) and their probabilities for the 2018-19 UEFA C1 matches : Round of 16, 2nd leg, Week 8
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This table shows observed outcomes and probability forecasts of UEFA 2018-19 C1 matches: R16, 1st leg
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These tables provides forecasting probabilities of scorelines and results of matches of the 2018-19 UEFA C1: round of 16-1st leg
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This table provides Scorelines and Win Loss forecasts for the 2018-19 UEFA C1 matches: Group Stage Week 6
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These tables present forecasts and outcomes of matches played in the UEFA 2018-19 C1: group stage, weeks 1 to 6
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These tables present probability forecasts and observed outcomes of matches of the 2018-19 UEFA-C1: Group Stage, Week 1 to 5
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These tables present probability forecasts and observed out comes of matches of the UEFA 2018-19 C1: Group Stage, Week 1 to 5.
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These tables give probability forecasts and observed outcomes of matches of the UEFA 2018-19 C1: group stage, weeks 1,2,3 and 4
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These tables give probability forecasts and observed outcomes of the UEFA 2018-19 C1 matches: Group Stage, Weeks 1,2,3
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These tables present forecasts for the 20018-19 UEFA C1 , Group Stage Week#2 and previous results
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These tables present forecasts for the 2018-19 UEFA C1 matches: Group Stage, Week #1
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These tables present probability forecasts and actual results for the 64 matches of the 2018 FIFA-WC: Group stage & Knock-out
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These tables give the probability forecasts for the outcomes of the finals of the 2018 FIFA WC as well as forecasts and actual results of the semi, quarter finals and round of 16.
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These tables provide probability forecasts of outcomes and scores for the semi-finals of the 2018 FIFA WC and actual vs predicted results for the quarter-finals and round of 16.
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These tables give i) probability forecasts for the quarter-finals of the 2018 FIFA-WC and ii) forecasts and actual results for the round of 16
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This table presents a detailed account of forecasts and actual outcomes of the 48 matches of the 2018 FIFA World Cup , Group Stage
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This table gives probability forecasts for the outcomes of the 2018 FIFA-WC: Round of 16; matches 49 to 56
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This table gives probability forecasts for the outcomes of the matches of the 2018 FIFA World Cup: Group Stage, 3rd round, Matches No 33 to 48
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This note presents probability forecasts of the outcomes of the 2018 FIFA-WC matches: Group Stage, matches No 17-32 and previous results
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These tables present probability forecasts of match outcomes of the 2018 FIFA World Cup: Group Stage, matches 1 to 16
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This table presents probability forecasting of the outcome of the UEFA 2017-18 C1 champions league between Real Madrid and Liverpool
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This table presents updated probability forecasts of the UEFA 2017-18 C1: semi finals, 2nd leg
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This table gives probability forecasts of the outcomes of the 2017-18 C1 semi-finals matches
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This table presents updated probability forecasts for the UEFA 2017-18 C1matches: quarter finals, 2nd leg
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These tables present probability forecasts and observed outcomes of matches of the UEFA C1: 1/4 finals and Round of 16
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These tables present forecasts and results of the outcomes of UEFA 2017-18 C1matches: Round of 16, 1st and 2nd legs
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This table presents updated probability forecasts for the UEFA 2017-2018 C1 Round of16, 1st Leg, W8 and results of W7
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This table presents probabilty forecasts of the outcomes of the 2017-18 UEFA-C1, Round of 16, 1st leg
Method
Full-text available
Following criticisms of the journal Impact Factor, new journal influence scores have been developed such as the Eigenfactor or the Prestige Scimago Journal Rank. They are based on PageRank type algorithms on the cross-citations transition matrix of the citing-cited network. The PageRank algorithm performs a smoothing of the transition matrix combin...
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These tables present probability forecasts for the UEFA 2017-2017 C1 Group Stage, Week6 and previous results
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These tables present probability forecasts and observed outcomes of the UEFA 2017-18 C1, Group Stage matches up to Week 5
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These tables present probability forecasts for the outcomes of the UEFA 2017-18 C1 group stage, week 5 and results of the previous weeks
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UEFA 2017-18 C1 Group Stage Forecasts and Outcomes of Week 4 and before
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These tables present forecasts for the Week 4 matches of the 2017-18 UEFA C1 Group Stage.
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These tables present predicted and observed outcomes of the 2017 -18 UEFA C1 for week #3 of the group stage
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Table 3 presents forecasts for the next matches of the UEFA C1 2017-18 , Group Stage Week 3 with previous results in tables 1 & 2 .
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These tables present predictions of the outcomes of the next C1 2017-18 matches Group stage: week 2
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This table presents predictions for the outcomes of the UEFA C1 2017-18 matches: Group Stage Week 1
Technical Report
Full-text available
This note gives a proof to the solution of Logic game #1017, question 2
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These tables present an overview of the predicted and observed outcomes of matches played during the knock-out stage of the 2016-17 UEFA Champions League which ended up with the victory of Real Madrid over Juventus Turin on June 3, 2017 at Cardiff Milelnium Stadium.
Research
Full-text available
Cet article-interview accordé à Variances.eu, webmagazine des ENSAE Alumni lors d’un entretien avec Philippe Tassi est un plaidoyer pour une application de la statistique mathématique dans le sport selon toutes ses facettes (sport de haut niveau, de loisir, individuel ou collectif) et dans toutes les activités d’amont et d’aval qui s’y rattachent (...
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This note presents the results of the UEFA C1 2016-17 knockout stage in terms of observed vs predicted performance
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This table shows probability forecasts for the matches of the UEFA 2016-17 C1: 2nd leg
Research
Full-text available
This note presents a short proof to recover the solution given by Christian Robert on his blog using a Linear Programming Solver to Le Monde Puzzle #1006
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This table gives an overview of observed and predicted results for the UEFA 2016-17 C1 matches: quarter and semifinals
Conference Paper
Full-text available
New journal influence scores have been developed following criticisms against the Journal Impact Factor (JIF). These scores are based on cross-citations among journals using the adjacency matrix of the citing-cited network, the data of which are handled via a PageRank type algorithm: see eg Bergstrom & West’s EigenFactor (EF) and Gonzalez-Pereira &...
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This table is about the UEFA 2016-2017 Champions League: forecasts & results 1st leg; forecasts 2nd leg
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This table shows probability predictions of the outcomes of the UEFA 2016-17 C1: Quarter Finals st leg
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This note presents an analytical solution to "Le Monde" Puzzle 1002
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This table presents observed vs probability predicted outcomes of matches of the UEFA 2016-2017 Champions League, Round of 16, 2nd leg. Six outcomes in terms of win/draw/loss out of the 8 matches were correctly predicted.
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This table presents probability forecasts of the matches of the UEFA 2016-17 C1, round of 16, 2nd leg, week2
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This note presents probability forecasts of the outcomes of matches of the 2016-17 UEFA-C1, round of 16: 2nd leg
Research
Full-text available
This table presents forecasting probabilities of outcomes of C1 2016-17: round of 16, 1st leg, week 2
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This table presents forecasts of the outcomes of C1 2016-17 matches: Round of 16-1st leg
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This table shows probability forecasts for the next matches of the UEFA 2016-2017 C1: semifinals 1st leg with previous predictions & results for the quaterfinals

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