Jean-Christophe Poutineau

Université de Rennes 1 | UR1 · Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management (CREM)

This article proposes a simple neo-Keynesian model of a small open economy to introduce the main mechanisms of open macroeconomics. Our aim is to present some basic results from the field (such as Mundell-Fleming's results on the effect of economic policy under polar exchange rate regimes) and to offer an extension of this framework to analyze furt...

We report empirical evidence indicating that US net business formation has recently turned more volatile, procyclical and persistent. To study these stylized facts, we estimate a DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit. Business units feature heterogeneous productivity and they shut down if the present value of expected future dividends falls bel...

Technical Appendix

Présentation de l'éditeur Ce manuel, écrit par des experts de la discipline, aborde l'économie dans une perspective pratique et engageante. L'adaptation française propose ici une version condensée de l'ouvrage original, centrée sur le programme des deux premières années de licence, tout en préservant la démarche originale des auteurs. Il permet à...

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on “normal times” and use a thoroughly graphical approach to analyze the quest...

This paper analyzes unconventional monetary policy decisions related to transitory episodes of financial intermediation disruption. We consider unconventional monetary policy decisions as temporary policies aimed at dampening the consequences of financial and real shocks on the provision of loans. In a DSGE model with financial frictions, we provid...

This paper analyses the consequences of the financial crisis on the implementation of ECB conventional policy decisions. We use the three equation new Keynesian model that was widely adopted before the 2007 financial crisis as the benchmark of the analysis. Our main results underline a decrease in conventional monetary policy efficiency, following...

This paper questions the role of cross-border lending in the definition of national macroprudential policies in the European Monetary Union. We build and estimate a two-country DSGE model with corporate and interbank cross-border loans, Core-Periphery diverging financial cycles and a national implementation of coordinated macroprudential measures b...

In an estimated DSGE model of the European Monetary Union that accounts for financial differences between core and peripheral countries, we find that country-adjusted macroprudential measures lead to significant welfare gains with respect to a uniform macroprudential policy rule that reacts to union-wide financial developments. However, peripheral...

This paper analyzes unconventional monetary policy decisions related to transitory episodes of financial intermediation disruption. We consider unconventional monetary policy decisions as temporary policies aimed at dampening the consequences of financial and real shocks on the provision of loans. In a DSGE model with financial frictions, we provid...

Th e aim of this paper is to assess the Polish monetary policy experience between 1995Q1 and 2014Q4 in the light of the three equation new Keynesian model estimated with Bayesian econometrics. Our results show that the National Bank of Poland has performed relatively well in stabilizing activity and infl ation as the results observed are very close...

What Consideration for National Characteristics in the Implementation of Macroprudential Measures in the Eurozone? This article examines the impact of cross-border lending on the implementation of macroprudential measures in the Euro Area. The goal is to evaluate - regardless of the current institutional organization - what relative weight should b...

This paper evaluates the role of financial intermediaries, such as banks, on the extensive margin of activity. We build a DSGE model that combines the endogenous determination of the number of firms operating on the goods market with financial frictions through a financial accelerator mechanism. We more particularly account for the fact that the cr...

This paper aims at providing a self contained presentation of the ideas and solution procedure of New Keynesian Macroeconomics models. Using the benchmark “3 equation model”, we introduce the reader to an intuitive, static version of the model before incorporating more technical aspects associated with the dynamic nature of the model. We then discu...

This paper provides a meta-analysis of 1651 point estimates of Feldstein and Horioka saving retention coefficient from 49 peer-reviewed papers published over three decades. We get two main results. First, correcting for publication bias, we find a consistent underlying coefficient lying between 0.56 and 0.67 for studies using the original paper....

This article introduces macroprudential policy using a static New Keynesian Macroeconomics model with financial frictions. The authors analyze two related questions: First, they show how the procyclicality of financial factors, captured by the financial accelerator, amplifies the transmission of supply and demand shocks and impacts the intuition th...

This paper seeks to evaluate quantitatively how interbank and corporate cross-border flows shape business cycles in a monetary union. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a two-country DSGE model that distinguishes between Eurozone core and peripheral countries and accounts for national heterogeneities and a set of real, nominal and financial fri...

This paper questions the impact of trade integration on business cycle sychronization in the EMU by distinguishing increase of existing trade flows (the intensive margin) and creation of new trade flows (the extensive margin). Using a DSGE model, we find that synchronization is weakened when new firms are allowed to export as a response to producti...

Cet article évalue l’impact des prêts transfrontaliers sur les modalités de mise en œuvre des mesures de politique macro-prudentielle dans la zone euro. L’objectif est d’apprécier - indépendamment de l’organisation institutionnelle actuelle - quel poids relatif il convient d’affecter aux considérations fédérales et nationales. L’analyse est menée d...

Au cours des 15 dernières années, l'intégration financière au sein de la zone euro s'est effectuée enpartie à travers le développement de flux bancaires transfrontaliers. Cet article étudie lesconséquences macroéconomiques des prêts transfrontaliers à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE décrivantune union monétaire à deux pays estimé sur données allemandes et...

Introducing both endogenous firm entry and a requirement for external finance in a general-equilibrium model leads to three main results. First, the financial constraint has contractionary effects on both equity investment and the labor supply as they are inversely related to the marginal finance cost. Second, net firm creation amplifies the steady...

This paper studies the effects of the European monetary unification on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade. First, we highlight empirical novel facts about the effects of monetary unification. We build country-level measures of the extensive margin of intra-EMU exports and describe how their volatilities evolved over time. We show that...

The extensive margin of trade and business cycle synchronization This paper shows that an increase in trade integration has mixed effects on business cycle synchronization. In a two country Dsge model with flexible prices we show that an increase in the extensive margin of trade reduces the coupling of business cycles with regard to a trade increa...

Investment, financial constraints and macroeconomic fluctuations This paper analyses the consequences of the existence of financial frictions and of a banking system on business cycles, in a new Keynesian macroeconomics model. We contrast our conclusions with those obtained in two other existing frameworks (namely the canonical Nns model of Woodfo...

This paper underlines the negative influence of the extensive margin of international trade on business cycle convergence. In a two country DSGE model with flexible prices we show that an increase in the extensive margin of trade reduces the coupling of business cycles with regard to a trade increase affecting only the intensive margin. This phenom...

This paper analyses the consequences of the existence of financial frictions and of a banking system on business cycles, in a new Keynesian macroeconomics model. We contrast our conclusions with those obtained in two other existing frameworks (namely the canonical nns model of Woodford, [2003] and the « loan in advance » model of Goodfriend and McC...

This paper introduces both endogenous capital accumulation and deposit-in-advance requirements for investment in the banking model of Goodfriend and McCallum (2007). Impulse response functions from technology and monetary shocks show some attenuation effect due to the procyclical behavior of the marginal finance cost. In addition, an adverse financ...

(2007) the optimal monetary policy consists in stabilizing consumer prices, as the stabilization of producer prices generates an inadequate adjustment of the real exchange rate. Furthermore, when the intensive margin of trade is factored in, the choice of a fixed exchange-rate regime creates excess macroeconomic volatility that entails a welfare co...

Using a two–country DGSE combining nominal rigidities and financial frictions, we show that the persistence of output and inflation asymmetries observed since 1999 in an increasingly integrated EMU is not necessarily puzzling. Only the integration of intermediate goods markets unambiguously leads to a reduction of asymmetries while the integration...

Cet article étudie les conditions de transmission de chocs asymétriques entre une union monétaire constituée de pays hétérogènes et les Etats-Unis, lorsque le canal commercial entre les deux zones combine des échanges de biens intermédiaires et de biens finals. Les résultats montrent d'une manière générale que lorsque les salaires sont fixes (flexi...

This paper introduces both endogenous capital accumulation and deposit-in-advance requirements in the banking model of Goodfriend and McCallum (2007). Impulse response functions from technology and monetary shocks show some attenuation effect due to the procyclical behavior of the marginal finance cost. In addition, an adverse financial shock produ...

Cet article étudie la manière dont la politique monétaire doit être conduite en économie ouverte lorsque l'on prend en compte son influence sur la marge extensive de l'activité. Dans un modèle à deux pays, on montre que, contrairement aux résultats obtenus par Bilbiie, Ghironi et Melitz [2007], la politique monétaire optimale consiste à stabiliser l...

This paper shows that in a monetary union the interest rate rule of the Central Bank should react to the in°ation rate of the Harmonized Index of Consumption Price (HICP) rather than to the inflation rate of the Welfare-Based Consumption Price (WBCP). In a two{country general equilibrium model of the EMU with endogenous entry, we compare both monet...

This paper is an attempt to combine global macroeconomic objectives with an explicit analysis of resource allocation efficiency. It determines how money creation must be shared between Monetary Union members, given national particularities in the monetary transmission mechanisms. In a two-country "New Open Macroeconomics" model, we outline the opti...

How to share money creation among the members of the European Monetary Union? To address this issue, we construct a two-country New Open-economy Macroeconomics model of an asymmetric monetary union with an incomplete financial market and home bias in consumption. We consider two sharing rules consistent with the current regulations of the European...

This paper investigates the impact of alternative monetary policy regimes on the creation of new varieties in open economies. Using a dynamic two-country model incorporating nominal rigidities, international trade and firm entries we compare an independent monetary policy regime to a monetary union regime. We find that a common monetary policy defi...

This paper evaluates the welfare gains arising from a deeper trade integration in the European Monetary Union. To do this, the European Monetary Union is represented in a realistic way by an intertemporal general equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets, sticky prices and home bias in both private consumption and production. The model is...

Cet article propose une extension du cadre de travail th�orique propos�e par Bilbiie, Ghironi et Melitz [2007] en �conomie ouverte afin d'�tudier les effets de la politique mon�taire sur marges intensives et extensives sur l'activit� �conomique. Deux r�gimes de politique mon�taire sont envisag�s : un r�gime de politiques mon�taires conduites de man...

This paper evaluates the welfare gains arising from the deeper trade integration ob- served in Europe since the adoption of the Euro. In an intert-emporal general equilibrium macroeconomics model with incomplete …nancial markets and sticky prices, we …nd that reaching a complete trade and …nancial integration in the area may imply up to a 100% incr...

This paper develops a compact two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model with predetermined prices, variable passthrough and the exchange of both intermediate and final goods. We show that production fragmentation plays a key role in the analysis of optimal monetary policy strategies under flexible exchange rates. First, it gives rise to the...

This paper develops a compact new open macroeconomics model of a Monetary Union to evaluate, on the one hand, the consequences of the imperfect integration of the goods and labour markets, when countries are hit by asymmetric demand shocks and, on the other hand, the macroeconomic and welfare gains associated to a further integration of either mark...

In this article, a unified framework is built with the aim at underlying the main features of the first two generations of currency crisis models. It lies in the new open-economy literature. The purpose is to give a new way of understanding the relationship between the current account sustainability and fixed exchange rate regime collapses. It is t...

This contribution establishes, from a theoretical viewpoint, the relations between the Malmquist productivity indices, that measure in either input or output orientations, and the Luenberger productivity indices, that can simultaneously contract inputs and expand outputs, but that can also measure in either input or output orientations. The main re...

In a pure exchange, small open economy, we show that though habits atten the time pro…le of consumption, they do not lead to a mechanical increase of the current account volatility following transi-tory income shocks. Keywords: intertemporal approach of the current account, mul-tiplicative consumption habits, consumption tilting. Classi…cation numb...

The aim of this paper is to discuss a mathematical solution procedure to solve a Ramsay-type growth model that explains the fundamentals of consumption and capital accumula-tion in a dynamic equilibrium setting. The problem is formulated as a system of recursive equations and studied through some numerical experiments for the time path of the diffe...

Cet article apprécie la hiérarchie des systèmes de change fixe et flexible en termes des possibilités d'assurance qu'ils offrent contre le risque de consommation. Dans un environnement sans friction, on montre que l'argument de vases communicants traditionnellement avancé pour défendre la supériorité du système de change fixe en l'absence d'échange...

This paper challenges the argument that fixed exchange rates are always prefered to flexible exchange rates on the grounds that they automatically allow risk sharing accross countries. In a frictionless choice theoretic model, we show that this result is only valid under capital restriction when real shocks are imperfectly correlated. Inversely, fl...

Exchange rate regimes and assurance against consumption risk This paper challenges the argument that fixed exchange rates are always prefered to flexible exchange rates on the grounds that they automatically allow risk sharing accross countries. In a frictionless choice theoretic model, we show that this resuit is only valid under capital restricti...

___________________________________________________________________________ This paper develops a compact new open macroeconomics model of a Monetary Union to evaluate, on the one hand, the consequences of the imperfect integration of the goods and labour markets, when countries are hit by asymmetric shocks and, on the other hand, the macroeconomic...

This paper shows that in a monetary union the interest rate rule of the Central Bank should react to the in∞ation rate of the Harmonized Index of Consumption Price (HICP) rather than to the in∞ation rate of the Welfare{Based Consumption Price (WBCP). In a two{country general equilibrium model of the EMU with endogenous entry, we compare both moneta...

Most developing economies have bank-dominated financial systems and the development of a financial market to finance growth is questionable. In an over-lapping generation framework based on the models developed by Fecht et al. (2005) and Marini (2005), we build four different types of financial systems and compare their respective contributions to...

Trade, finance and specialization are often used to explain business cycle correlations. This paper investigates a new determinant: the extensive margin of trade. According to Kose and Yi (2006), Corsetti, Martin and Pesenti (2007) and Galstyan and Lane (2008), the extensive margin has effects on the terms of trade. In this case, the intensive marg...