Jawad Shahzad

Montpellier Business School · ​Finance, Control and Law

A R T I C L E I N F O JEL classification: C58 F36 G11 G21 R10 Keywords: Banking sector Network Spillover index Portfolio optimization and diversification Americas A B S T R A C T We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our resu...

Nous évaluons l’impact des sauts et des semi-variances signés et réalisés, sur l’évolution de la volatilité des taux de change par rapport aux principales devises que sont le dollar américain, l’euro, la livre sterling et le yen japonais. Nous faisons cela en utilisant des données à haute fréquence d’intervalle de 5 minutes. Nous re- examinons les...

The nexus between financial inclusion and carbon emissions is becoming an increasingly important topic, given the augmented awareness of the negative impacts of climate change and carbon emissions on the environment and human health. In this study, we examine the impact of financial inclusion on carbon emissions using the STIRPAT framework for 102...

We examine the hedge and safe‐haven properties of four commodity classes (precious metals, energy, agriculture and livestock) for the overall and sectoral equity markets of the US and China. In doing so, we employ two quantiles‐based approaches, quantile regression and cross‐quantilogram, using daily data from 25 September 2014 to 06 July 2020. The...

We evaluate the impact of signed realized semivariances and jumps, in the evolution of the volatility of exchange rates w.r.t leading currencies the US Dollar, the Euro, the UK Pound and the Japanese Yen using high frequency 5-minute interval data. We re-examine the meteor shower and heat wave hypotheses for four trading time zones i.e., New York,...

We examine the dynamics of tail dependence across returns of 105 global energy firms from 26 countries covering the regions of America, Asia Pacific and Europe. A partial correlation-based approach is used to quantify the dependence structure and level of systemic risk under relatively stable and extremely bearish and bullish market conditions. The...

We examine the role of geopolitical risk in the cross-sectional pricing of cryptocurrencies. We calculate cryptocurrency exposure to changes in the geopolitical risk index and document that coins with the lowest geopolitical beta outperform those with high geopolitical beta. Our findings suggest that risk-averse investors require additional compens...

Previous studies have neither examined the volatility co-movements across stock and commodity markets in terms of both time and frequency nor differentiated between bad and good volatility and the potential asymmetric effect. To address this gap, we computed 5-min price data, the positive and negative semivariances on five leading Exchange Traded F...

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of large fluctuations in global commodity prices on the dynamics of sovereign risk for 18 emerging economies using a conditional quantile dependence approach and weekly data covering the period March 27, 2009–April 25, 2022. The results show the following: commodity prices and sovereign risk move in op...

Using network analysis on the connectedness of default factors in a credit default swap (CDS) dataset of U.S. and European energy firms, we provide the first evidence of differences in the shape and dynamics of the interconnectedness of the level, slope, and curvature, representing long-, short- and middle-term default factors, respectively. The in...

This study investigated the safe-haven role of two gold-backed Islamic cryptocurrencies, i.e., OneGram Coin (OGC) and X8X Token (X8X), for 15 Islamic equity indices at the global, regional, and country levels. For this purpose, we used four-moment modified value at risk, dynamic conditional correlation-based hedge and safe-haven hypotheses, directi...

This study examines the price explosiveness of stocks whose purchase Robinhood restricted during the GameStop episode. We find that those “meme stocks” comprise multiple periods of explosiveness, indicating that they are unlikely to be an epiphenomenon. We also document evidence of price co-explosivity among meme stocks themselves and cryptocurrenc...

This study investigates the diversification properties of precious metals for African stock markets. We report that gold offers the strongest safe haven and hedging potential for African equity markets. Our quantile-coherency analysis indicates a low safe haven ability of precious metals in the long-run. Palladium provides both safe haven and hedge...

The US real estate market presents itself as a highly capital intensive business and therefore an important part of the US economy. We examine the presence of dependence between 50 US financial REITs from 1st January 2006 to 20th July 2020 categorized into small, medium and large REITs. We apply normal and threshold dependence measures as main test...

We provide first evidence of the multiscale comovement of correlations between the S&P 500 VIX and the VIXs of Amazon, Apple, Google, Goldman Sachs, and IBM. Using grey correlation and wavelet analysis on daily data (July 2011 - September 2021), the dynamics of grey-based correlations vary across scales and depend on the fluctuation intensity of th...

Stock markets have exhibited increased returns connectedness during the COVID-19 period. We examine the returns dependence among 42 stock markets classified under various emerging and developed groupings. We apply several dependence measures to examine the returns connectedness among the markets. Our results show that stock markets from the G-7 and...

Cryptocurrencies have been historically characterised by large price swings and inherent volatility at a much higher scale than traditional financial assets. Understanding the underlying mechanisms and whether, or how, these are priced in through possible risk premia is crucial to bringing cryptocurrencies closer to mainstream financial markets. Us...

We propose a new systemic risk index based on the interdependence of extreme downside movements of stock returns using the cross-quantilogram and network analysis approach. While quantile dependence allows for sensitivity in times of market downturn, the topological network properties allow for capturing the interconnectedness of the banking system...

We detect episodes of price explosivity and collapse in Bitcoin and its contender Dogecoin using four-hourly data. The results show multiple bubble episodes in both cryptocurrencies, with a more frequent occurrence in Bitcoin. Collapse episodes are only observed in Bitcoin. We relate price explosivity to Elon Musk's tweets. His cryptocurrency-relat...

There is a growing literature studying return spillovers between similar assets and assets of different classes during crisis periods. However, less is known about return spillovers across stock sectors under high and low volatility regimes and whether they are affected by oil price volatility. Using daily data from May 10th, 2007 to February 28th,...

We examine the dynamics of liquidity connectedness in the cryptocurrency market. We use the connectedness models of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2):271–296, 2018) on a sample of six major cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Monero...

The recent COVID-19 pandemic intensification generates a different set of challenges for global financial markets and portfolio management strategies. This paper uses network analysis to investigate the static and dynamic dependence within Islamic and conventional equity sectors. The study focuses on the decoupling hypothesis and how the dependence...

The South American country Brazil is one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources, representing 14 percent of the world’s total biocapacity. However, the biocapacity (biosphere’s ability to generate resources and sequester waste) per capita in Brazil has shown a massive decline over the last five decades, while economic growth and urb...

We examine the asymmetric and extreme tail dependence between five energy markets (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, and coal) and green bonds using a time-varying optimal copula (TVOC) model. The results indicate the existence of multiple tail dependence regimes, implying the unsuitability of applying static or dynamic models to entir...

We examine the dependence structure among the metals and mining companies of the US and Europe. We employ several dependency measures, comprising network dependency and spillover approaches, using daily data from May 14, 2010 to July 10, 2020. We estimate the minimum spanning tree and conduct sub-sample analyses for the European sovereign debt cris...

Our work examines relationship between socially responsible funds and traditional energy market over daily returns data ranging from December 2015 – April 2019. To measure the connectedness between both markets, we apply quantile cross-spectral analysis to measure returns correlation under different market conditions in the short-, medium-, and lon...

COVID-19 has morphed from a health crisis to an economic crisis that affected the global economy through several channels. This paper aims to study the impact of COVID-19 on the time-frequency connectedness between Green Bonds and other financial assets. Our sample includes the global stock market, bond market, oil, USD index, and two popular hedgi...

We compare the weak/strong hedging abilities of three alternative assets, namely Bitcoin, gold, and US VIX futures, against the downside movements in BRICS stock market indices. Results from the cross‐quantilogram approach indicate that Bitcoin and gold are weak hedges. Analysis from the recursive sampling shows that each of Bitcoin, gold, and VIX...

We examine the median- and tail-based return interdependence among cryptocurrencies under both normal and extreme market conditions. Using daily data and combining the LASSO technique with quantile regression within a framework of network analysis, the main results show the following: Interdependence is higher at tails than at medians, especially t...

This study examines the Granger causal flow from implied oil volatility to US high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds. The results show that the Granger causality differs over investment time horizons, with evidence of a more lasting effect for high-yield bonds. The oil price crash of mid-2014 intensifies the causal effect from oil price vo...

This paper investigates the interconnectedness between sovereign credit risk based on the tail event and network dynamics technique. Specifically, we examine the interdependence in upper tails of sovereign credit default swap in the case of fifteen most COVID-19 affected countries. Empirical findings indicate that connectedness among SCDS spreads c...

We study the tail dependence between crude oil and BRIC stock markets using a time-varying optimal copula (TVOC) approach. We show evidence of multiple tail dependence regimes, suggesting that simple static or dynamic copula specifications do not fully characterize the extreme dependence between oil and BRIC stock markets. The identified combinatio...

In this study, we present the evidence of dramatic changes in the structure and time-varying patterns of volatility connectedness across equities and major commodities (oil, gold, silver and natural gas) in the US economy before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. We utilize high frequency 5-min trading data of most actively traded US ETFs to constru...

We examine the effect of regulatory capital and ownership structure on banks’ liquidity creation in emerging Asian economies. We find a positive association between regulatory capital and bank liquidity creation, which is consistent with the risk-absorption hypothesis. Bank size has a positive relation with liquidity creation, implying that large b...

Motivated by the lack of research on price efficiency dynamics of green bonds and the impact of the COVID-19 on the pricing of fixed-income securities, this study investigates the comparative efficiency of green and conventional bond markets pre-and during the COVID-19 pandemic applying asymmetric multifractal analysis. Specifically, the multifract...

Inter-sectoral volatility linkages in the Chinese stock market are understudied, especially asymmetries in realized volatility connectedness, accounting for the catastrophic event associated with the COVID-19 outbreak. In this paper, we examine the asymmetric volatility spillover among Chinese stock market sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic using...

The aim of this study is to examine the extreme return spillovers among the US stock market sectors in the light of the COVID-19 outbreak. To this end, we extend the now-traditional Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to the quantiles domain by building networks of generalized forecast error variance decomposition of a quantile vector autoregressive mod...

The rapid economic growth over recent years and the resulting environmental pollution in OECD countries are a serious concern for the health of the general public. A comprehensive analysis of environmental pollutants, economic growth, and public health is done using data from 28 OECD economies from 2002 to 2018. Panel fully modified least squares a...

The aim of this study is to examine the daily return spillover among 18 cryptocurrencies under low and high volatility regimes, while considering three pricing factors and the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak. To do so, we apply a Markov regime-switching (MS) vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) model to a daily dataset from 25-July...

Using high‐frequency (daily) data on macroeconomic uncertainties and the partial cross‐quantilogram approach, we examine the directional predictability of disentangled oil‐price‐shocks for the entire conditional distribution of uncertainties of five advanced economies (Canada, Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Our result...

This paper examines the sensitivity of major US sectoral returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments. Our analysis is based on weekly frequency and ranges from January 1995 to December 2015 covering a span of 20 years. Considering existing, however limited evidence of non-linear structure exhibited by investor sentiments and econ...

The paper aims to examine the spillover of uncertainty among commodity markets using Diebold-Yilmaz approach based on forecast error variance decomposition. Next, causal impact of global factors as drivers of uncertainty transmission between oil and other commodity markets is analyzed. Our analysis suggests that oil is a net transmitter to other co...

We examine the relationship between financial inclusion and carbon emissions. For this purpose, we develop a composite indicator of financial inclusion based on a broad set of attributes through principal component analysis (PCA) for 26 countries in the Asia region. Our robust panel regression analysis reveals a significant positive long-term impac...

This study explores how carbon emission is affected by financial inclusion. Using a balanced panel data set of 26 Asian countries, we compute a composite index, through principal component analysis (PCA) technique, of financial inclusion based on a set of attributes related to financial inclusion. Our main analysis also delineates to subsample of d...

This study explores the methods to de-trend the smooth structural break processes while conducting the unit root tests. The two most commonly applied approaches for modelling smooth structural breaks namely the smooth transition and the Fourier functions are considered. We perform a sequence of power comparisons among alternative unit root tests th...

We use daily data for the period 5 January 2000 to 31 October 2018 to analyse the impact of structural oil supply, oil demand and financial market risk shocks on the level, slope and curvature factors derived from the term structure of interest rates of the U.S. Treasury securities covering maturities of 1–30 years. Linear causality tests detect no...

This paper investigates the interconnectedness among 95 tourism firms in the U.S. over the 2018-2020 period with a focus on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The results using tail risk spillover analysis show that the level of risk contagion significantly increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. Small tourism firms become more systemically impor...

We examine the hedge and safe-haven properties of conventional currencies for four cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin. We extend the Baur and McDermott (2010) framework, where the safe-haven role is examined against reverse explosiveness in cryptocurrency prices. Our results suggest that the Japanese yen is the most consiste...

We examine the nonlinear dependence dynamics and downside and upside risk spillovers between oil prices and world food prices captured by a world food price index and its subcategories of dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. We draw our empirical results using static and dynamic bivariate copulas, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CoVaR...

This paper compares the tail dependence and risk spillovers from the oil and gas to high-yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) bond markets. We use time-varying optimal copula framework to examine the dependence and further quantify upside and downside risk spillovers. We also explore how energy futures can be used to hedge risk of HY and IG bond po...

We examine the predictive ability of online investor sentiment for six major cryptocurrency returns. For this, we use two proxies, the FEARS index of Da et al. (2015) and Twitter Happiness sentiment, applying the bivariate cross-quantilogram of Han et al. (2016). Happiness sentiment index significantly predicts Bitcoin return as well as other major...

This paper investigates the time-frequency connectedness across the global green bond market and several mainstream financial and energy markets in an attempt to figure out whether green bonds represent a different asset class. The connectedness methodology proposed by Baruník and Křehlík (2018) is employed for that purpose. This approach enables q...

In this paper, we examine the relevance of investor sentiment to Islamic stock-bond interplay in the time-frequency domain. Using various wavelet methods including multiple and partial wavelet coherence and bivariate and multivariate nonlinear causality tests, our results reveal that the connectedness between Islamic stocks and bonds is affected by...

JEL classification: C14 C52 G11 Q18 Q40 a b s t r a c t We examine the nonlinear dependence dynamics and downside and upside risk spillovers between oil prices and world food prices captured by a world food price index and its subcategories of dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. We draw our empirical results using static and dynamic bivariate...

In this study, we examine the asymmetric short- and long-run spillover among commodities using realized variances and realized semivariances calculated through 5-min trading data of commodity futures. In doing so, we apply time and frequency domain generalized error variance decomposition approaches and build a network of commodity connectedness. O...

We examine the predictive ability of Twitter Happiness Sentiment for six major cryptocurrencies using daily data from August 7, 2015 to December 31, 2019. At first instance, our results conclude a significant nonlinear relationship between Twitter Happiness Sentiment and cryptocurrencies. The nonlinear dependence structure is further enhanced when...

We examine the predictive power of disentangled oil price shocks over gold market volatility via the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model. Our in- and out-of-sample tests show that combining the information from both oil supply and demand shocks with the innovations associated with financial market risks improves the fore...

In this study, we examine the asymmetric efficiency of cryptocurrencies using 1-hour data of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. In doing so, we utilize the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We find significant asymmetric multifractality in the price of cryptocurrencies and that upward trends exhibit stronger mul...

This study investigates the structure of the tail dependence between the United States (US) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors for the period February 2010 to July 2017. Conditional value at risk and conditional diversification benefits are calculated. The GCC banking sectors show lower tail dependence with the US banking sector. Th...

This study investigates the structure of the tail dependence between the United States (US) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors for the period February 2010 to July 2017. Conditional value at risk and conditional diversification benefits are calculated. The GCC banking sectors show lower tail dependence with the US banking sector. Th...

A bulk of literature suggests that geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks dampen tourism demand. However, there is little research on whether this effect helps predict the return of the tourism equity sector. We provide country-level evidence on whether local and global geopolitical risk (GPR) predicts the first and second moments of tourism...

The implied volatility index is a forward-looking indicator of fear among stock market participants. We examine the extent to which the connectedness of fear among global stock markets is driven by the crosscountry connectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). We use data on stock market fear and EPU indices for 13 countries, which spans from...

India has one of the world’s largest transport networks, with the dominant share being road transportation. India’s transport sector consumes oil products for more than 95% of its energy needs and is a significant contributor to environmental deterioration in urban areas. Therefore, we examine the driving factors of transport CO2 emissions in India...

We compare the performance of unit root tests which include flexible Fourier trends in their testing processes. The algorithms considered are those of Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno (BFGS), Berndt, Hall, Hall and Hausman (BHHH), Simplex, Genetic and grid search (GS). The simulation results indicate that derivative-free methods, such as Gene...

We examine as if the incorporation of the contagion risk, which is found significant in cryptocurrencies, can make the resulting four-factor pricing model offers an improved explanatory power. We estimate contagion measure for the large left-tail events in the idiosyncratic disturbances of cryptocurrencies and then incorporate it into the three-fac...

This paper reexamines the static and time-varying asymmetries in quantile-specific relationship between gold returns and gold mining companies' stock returns. In doing so, we use novel cross-quantilogram approach that is built on quantiles of both distributions and control for the effect of crude oil price changes, overall stock market movements, s...

This paper investigates the role of financial development in the rapid rise of life expectancy in Bangladesh by using the annual data covering the period of 1972-2013. We examine the unit root properties of the variables employing a structural break unit root test. The combined cointegration and ARDL bounds testing approach confirm the long-run ass...