Javier Ferri

• PhD
• Professor (Full) at University of Valencia

In the European Monetary Union (EMU), monetary policy is determined by the European Central Bank (ECB). This arrangement can give rise to certain national economic imbalances that may potentially be addressed through national policies. Traditionally, fiscal policy has been the primary tool to correct these imbalances. However, following the global...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to asses the welfare and macroeconomic implications of three distinct degrowth strategies designed to reduce carbon emissions: penalizing fossil fuel demand, substituting aggregate consumption with leisure and disincentivizing total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Design/methodology/approach Using an environm...

We evaluate the effects of vaccines in the evolution of the epidemic in Spain during 2021. To this end, we estimate the effect of vaccination in terms of reducing infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. We also compare the health impact of COVID-19 with that caused by recent influenza seasons, in a scenario where all the populatio...

Frente a la inflación importada, la tasa de crecimiento del deflactor del PIB es un indicador más apropiado que la inflación calculada a partir del IPC para monitorizar en qué medida nuestra economía genera presión adicional sobre el crecimiento de los precios y para servir de base para un potencial pacto de rentas. En este artículo utilizamos un m...

Using households' balance-sheet composition in the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a six-agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions, we explore h...

In this paper we use a theoretical model of effort optimization on the part of university students to simulate the effects of different tuition fees schemes. For each of such schemes, we present and discuss the trade-offs that appear among the three outcomes that every exercise of policy evaluation in this context should take into consideration, na...

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the stabilizing macroeconomic effects of economic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in Spain. Design/methodology/approach The contribution of the structural shocks that explain the behaviour of the main macroeconomic aggregates during 2020 are estimated, and the effects of economic policies are simulated using...

Este documento es el informe final del Grupo de Trabajo Mixto Covid-19 (GTMC). En él se defiende la necesidad de alcanzar un amplio pacto político y social en torno a una estrategia para salir lo antes posible de la crisis y sentar las bases para hacer frente a los complicados retos económicos y sociales a los que nos enfrentamos a medio y largo pl...

Este documento es la versión abreviada del informe final del Grupo de Trabajo Mixto Covid-19 (GTMC). En él se defiende la necesidad de alcanzar un amplio pacto político y social en torno a una estrategia para salir lo antes posible de la crisis y sentar las bases para hacer frente a los complicados retos económicos y sociales a los que nos enfrenta...

Using households' balance sheet composition in the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a six-agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions, we explore h...

In this paper we develop a new DSGE model for a small open economy in a currency union, estimated with Bayesian methods, which incorporates a banking and a housing supply sector, consumers and entrepreneurs who accumulate debt, a rich structure of fiscal variables and monopolistic competition in products and labor markets. As an example of its capa...

This paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence that an increase in tuition fees may boost university students’ academic effort. We examine the tuition fee rise introduced in 2012 by Spanish universities, where students register and pay for their chosen modules and fees increase each time students retake a module until they pass it. Data ref...

Using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types as a function of their balance sheet composition. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a DSGE model with search and matching frictions, we explore how changes...

Se cuantifican los efectos sobre el crecimiento y empleo de los programas cofinanciados con el Fondo FEDER de 2014 a 2020. Los resultados indican un efecto positivo sobre la tasa de crecimiento anual del PIB ligeramente superior a tres décimas, equivalente a un aumento del PIB de 26.000 millones en 2020 y aproximadamente 240.000 empleos más durante...

In this article, we construct a homogeneous series of vacancies for the Spanish economy from 1980 to 2016, which enables us to perform an analysis of the effects of the economic cycle on the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. The methodology proposes a link between the old series of vacancies from the former INEM (National Employment...

We look at the interplay between the level of household debt and fiscal policy. When the fiscal rule is defined in lump-sum transfers, government spending or consumption taxes, the impact multipliers of fiscal shocks get substantially amplified in an environment of easy access to credit. However, when the government reacts to debt deviations by rai...

We study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness. The main results are: (a) the presence of impatient households and private debt helps to generate government spending multipliers greater than 1; (b) as financial co...

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficien...

We study the size of fiscal multipliers in response to a government spending shock under different household leverage conditions in a general equilibrium setting with search and matching frictions. We allow for different levels of household indebtedness by changing the intensive margin of borrowing (loan-to-value ratio), as well as the extensive ma...

We use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devaluation in EMU. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, that is a good example of the advantages of a change in the tax mix, given that its tax system shows a positive bias in the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes....

This paper analyses the effects of introducing two typical Keynesian features, namely rule-of-thumb (RoT) consumers and consumption habits, into a standard labour market search model. RoT consumers use the margin that hours and wage negotiation provides them to improve their lifetime utility, by narrowing the gap in utility with respect to Ricardia...

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficien...

The Spanish economy enjoyed a prolonged period of high growth between 1994 and 2007, characterised by extensive job creation. From the1960s to thee arly 1990s thenumbe r of jobs in theSpanish economy had fluctuated around a steady level of some 13 million. This led many people to support the idea that the Spanish economy could never break through t...

The construction of a model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy constitutes a far-reaching project. This research task involves the specification of the behavioural equations that better describe the economy, as will be explained in the next chapter. Growth and cyclical regularities impose several restrictions on the specifi...

Despitetheinte gration of Spain into theEurope an Union and thehigh rates of growth recorded between 1995 and 2007, relative per capita income in Spain with respect to the United States was only 69 per cent in 2007, slightly lower even than in the mid-1970s. As in many other European countries, it seems that Spain faces a ‘glass ceiling’ which cons...

The current era of globalisation has witnessed a rising premium paid to skilled workers resulting in increasing wage inequality in most OECD countries. This pattern differs from that observed during the past globalisation period (1880–1913), in which wage inequality decreased in most of the Old World countries. The present debate over wage inequali...

Mortgage market deregulation in the early 1980s coincided in time with a sharp break in the cyclical behavior of many variables related to housing and to the labor market. This paper analyses the joint dynamics of labor market variables, output and housing prices in a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions. In a setting of h...

We evaluate the welfare impact of changing the VAT on food in a context in which households can produce home meals for own consumption that compete with meals served in restaurants. Home production of meals requires the combination of food and time inputs. The fiscal treatment in home production of both the inputs and the final product differs from...

The benefits implied by changing the growth model are at the heart of the heated political and economic debate in Spain. Increases in productivity and the reallocation of employment towards more innovative sectors are defended as the panacea for most of the ills afflicting the Spanish economy. In this paper we use a DSGE model with price rigidities...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 fi...

This paper uses REMS, a Rational Expectations Model of the Spanish economy designed by Boscá et al (2007), to analyse the effects of lowering the overall tax wedge to the level prevailing in the US. Our results partially confirm previous findings in the literature: a reduction in the overall tax wedge of 19.5 points, in order to reach the US levels...

This paper describes a Rational Expectations Model of the Spanish economy, REMS, which is in the tradition of small open economy dynamic general equilibrium models, with a strongly microfounded system of equations. The model is built on standard elements, but incorporates some distinctive features to provide an accurate description of the Spanish e...

This paper presents a new macroeconomic database for the Spanish economy, REMSDB. The construction of this database has been oriented to conducting medium-term simulations for policy evaluation with the REMS model, a large Rational Expectations macroeconomic Model for Spain. The paper provides a detailed description of the data and documents its ma...

The current era of globalisation has witnessed a rising premium paid to skilled workers resulting in increasing wage inequality in most OECD countries. This pattern differs from that observed during the past globalisation period (1880-1913), in which wage inequality steadily decreased in most of the Old World countries. The present debate over wage...

We assess the effects of an important influx of illegal immigration on production and welfare, applied to the Spanish economy during the nineties, through a calibrated general equilibrium model. Immigrants are perfect substitutes of unskilled native workers, according to their productivity, but they are unevenly rewarded. In a first simulation we a...

The successful matching model developed by Mortensen and Pissarides seems to find its hardest task in explaining the cyclical movements of some key labor market variables such as the vacancy rate and the vacancy-unemployment ratio. Several authors have discussed mechanisms compatible with the matching technology that are able to deliver the kind of...

This paper implements the conceptual framework sketched by Pyatt (1990) to construct an extended Social Accounting Matrix for Spain in 1995 (ESAM-95) to consider, in addition to the market economy, the production of services provided by households through unpaid work. In doing so, the ESAM-95 integrates the accounts related to market activities (ES...

This paper implements the conceptual framework sketched by Pyatt (1990) to construct an extended Social Accounting Matrix for Spain in 1995 (ESAM-95) to consider, in addition to the market economy, the production of services provided by households through unpaid work. In doing so, the ESAM-95 integrates the accounts related to market activities (ES...

Depósito Legal: V-4682-2005 Los documentos de trabajo del Ivie ofrecen un avance de los resultados de las investigaciones económicas en curso, con objeto de generar un proceso de discusión previo a su remisión a las revistas científicas.

The motivation behind this paper is to provide some guidance on how to apply a general equilibrium model with home production in a real world setting to analyze economy-wide tax policies. The story line is the model of Iorweth and Whalley (2002), which we write as a mixed complementarity problem to make it ready to easily accommodate more consumers...

A Social Accounting Matrix for Spain in 1995 (MCS-95) is shown in this paper. This new data base contains some novelties in relation to the earlier MCS-90, both in the methodology applied and in the use of new data sources. As to the methodological innovation, the new input output framework of the European Accounting system (SEC-95) is used in the...

Credit institutions provide financial intermediation services indirectly measured(FISIM). The consideration of those services by national accounts raise many problems.SEC-70 and SEC-95 (chapter 3) decided to include FISIM in a fictitious sector. Thissolution does not seem to be the best one as it implies that the share of the financialsector in the...

El objetivo de este trabajo es establecer si la apertura de la autopista que se extiende a lo largo de la Costa Este de España ha contribuido significativamente a expandir el turismo en la Comunidad Valenciana. La autopista, llamada A-7, no significó sólo un medio más rápido y seguro de comunicación sino que también proporcionó una nueva entrada a...

Este trabajo explora los efectos económicos de la inmigración internacional en España a través de la construcción de un modelo de equilibrio general computable. Uno de los aspectos en los que se centra el trabajo es la influencia que tiene el grado de movilidad intersectorial de los trabajadores extranjeros, planteando dos escenarios alternativos:...

Credit institutions provide financial intermediation services indirectly measured(FISIM). The consideration of those services by national accounts raise many problems.SEC-70 and SEC-95 (chapter 3) decided to include FISIM in a fictitious sector. Thissolution does not seem to be the best one as it implies that the share of the financialsector in the...

El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar una evaluación de las diferencias entre la Matriz de Contabilidad Social de 1990 (MCS-90) y la SAM-90, propuesta recientemente por Fernández y Polo (2001) El análisis pormenorizado de las diferencias entre estas dos versiones de la Matriz de Contabilidad Social de 1990 permite llegar a la conclusión de que al...

The paper examines the effects of pupil-teacher ratios and type of school on educational attainment and wages using the British National Child Development Survey (NCDS). The NCDS is a panel survey that follows a cohort of individuals born in March 1958 and has a rich set of background variables recorded throughout the individuals' lives. The result...

The aim of this paper is to estimate an equation for household demand for both secondary and university education, using an estimation of the opportunity cost associated with the decision to invest in education. Limited dependent variable models are applied to the data provided by the Family Budget Survey 1991 for Spain. The results show that the s...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 fi...

Evidence of the existence of overeducation in the Spanish labour market has drawn the attention of research on the transitory character of overeducation (Alba-Ramirez, 1993 and García and Malo, 1995). Our main interest lies on whether overeducation is a source of inefficiency in the allocation of resources or it is a substitute for on-the-job train...

The objective of this paper is to estimate the private demand equation of spanish households, for both secondary and higher education, taking into account the estimated opportunity cost for the household with data from the Household Expenditure Survey. Limited dependent variable models are applied in order to estimate the demand for education. The...

Depósito Legal: V-441-2005 Los documentos de trabajo del IVIE ofrecen un avance de los resultados de las investigaciones económicas en curso, con objeto de generar un proceso de discusión previo a su remisión a las revistas científicas.

This paper asseses the impact of increasing immigration into Spain. Immigrants into Spain has almost triplicated since 1990 and a increas- ing number of illegal immigrants works with no social protection and accepting very low wages. Recently, Spanish Parliament has passed a law to legalize the situation of these workers. We look into the eco- nomi...

This paper assesses the impact of illegal immigration in Spain looking into the economic e¤ects of di¤erent policies by constructing a computable general equilibrium model. We proceed as follows: …rstly, we study the e¤ects of an exogenous increase in illegal workers; secondly, we consider an expansion in unskilled legal immigrants; and …nally, we...

Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto económico del turismo receptor sobre la economía española, empleando para ello dos aproximaciones distintas. En primer lugar, se han obtenido los multiplicadores turísticos a partir de una matriz de contabilidad social; y en segundo lugar se ha elaborado un modelo de equilibrio general. El...

Las instituciones de crédito producen los denominados servicios de intermediación financiera medidos indirectamente (SIFMI). El tratamiento de estos servicios en Contabilidad Nacional plantea numerosos problemas. En el SEC-70, y también en el capítulo 3 del SEC-95, se optó por asignar los SIFMI a un sector ficticio. Esta solución no parece que sea...

En este artículo se presenta la nueva Matriz de Contabilidad Social de 1995 para España (MCS-95) que supone un avance de cinco años con respecto a la anterior MCS-90. La nueva base de datos introduce además importantes novedades metodológicas. En primer lugar, se utiliza como referencia el nuevo marco input output (MIO) del sistema SEC-95. En segun...

En este artículo se estima una nueva Matriz de Contabilidad Social de 1995 para España (MCS-95) que actualiza en cinco años la anterior MCS-90 publicada por el INE. La nueva base de datos introduce además importantes novedades metodológicas. En primer lugar, se utiliza como referencia el nuevo marco input output (MIO) del sistema SEC-95. En segundo...

Las instituciones de crédito producen los denominados servicios de intermediación financiera medidos indirectamente (SIFMI). El tratamiento de estos servicios en Contabilidad Nacional plantea numerosos problemas. En el SEC-70, y también en el capítulo 3 del SEC-95, se optó por asignar los SIFMI a un sector ficticio. Esta solución no parece ser la m...

Este trabajo explora los efectos económicos de la inmigración internacional en España a través de la construcción de un modelo de equilibrio general computable. Uno de los aspectos en los que se centra el trabajo es la influencia que tiene el grado de movilidad intersectorial de los trabajadores extranjeros, planteando dos escenarios alternativos:...