Jarrad G. Wright

• PhD PrEng ORCID: 0000-0002-5412-2682
• Senior Researcher at National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Energy modelling plays a crucial role in assisting governmental and policymaking bodies to strategise long-term investments within the context of energy transition. Among the well-established open-source optimisation models, OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System—stands out. This paper introduces clicSAND, a novel user interface designed...

Capacity expansion models for the electric power system often employ zonal (rather than nodal) resolution, necessitating estimates of aggregate power transfer limits across the interfaces between model zones. Interface limits between planning areas are sometimes published, but they are not generalizable to arbitrary zone shapes. There is thus a nee...

This paper examines the risks and opportunities associated with technologies and technological developments relevant to South Africa’s efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change over the next decade (up to 2035). These technologies will make the energy sector cleaner while reducing the carbon intensity of energy demand and the e...

Energy models are crucial for helping governments and policymakers plan long-term investments in the energy transition context. One of the most established open-source optimisation models is OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System. This paper presents a new interface—clicSAND—for OSeMOSYS, which shortens the learning curve and supports beg...

Energy models are crucial for helping governments and policymakers plan long-term investments in the energy transition context. One of the most established open-source optimisation models is OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System. This paper presents a new interface—clicSAND—for OSeMOSYS, which shortens the learning curve and supports beg...

Energy models are crucial for helping governments and policymakers plan long-term investments in the energy transition context. One of the most established open-source optimisation models is OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System. This paper presents a new user interface—clicSAND—for OSeMOSYS, which shortens the learning curve and support...

As is well known, the System Operator in South Africa (as part of Eskom Holdings) conducts periodic adequacy assessments of the generation system-known as the Medium Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO). The MTSAO determines whether the generation system will be able to meet the forecasted electricity demand in every hour over a 5-year horizon, for...

This presentation summarize the H1-2021 statistics: A difficult first half of 2021 as extensive loadshedding continued but record relative VRE contributions and diesel usage was recorded. By H1-2021 South Africa had 52.6 GW of wholesale/public nominal capacity. The electricity mix is dominated by coal-fired power generation which contributed 83.5%...

Presentation made to SAIEE Load Research Chapter Webinar on 22 April 2021

Presented to the City of Cape Town "Innovation Fridays" on 26 March 2021

According to section 34 of the Electricity Regulation Act, 2006 (Act No. 4 of 2006), NERSA is required to appropriately apply its regulatory reviews and make decisions prior to the conclusion of the determination process by the Minister of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE). This written submission serves to document the CSIR’s...

This presentation provides statistics on utility-scale power generation in South Africa in 2020. Coal still dominates the South African energy mix whilst variable renewables surpassed nuclear energy contribution in 2020 by some margin. System demand reduced notably in 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdown and resulting reduced economic activity. 5.6% of sy...

GreenCape and CSIR Webinar

Highlights by the end of 2019 include: •There was 2078 MW of wind, 1479 MW of solar PV and 500 MW of concentrating solar power (CSP) operational in South Africa. •No additional solar PV or wind capacity as part of the REIPPPP came online in 2019 whilst an additional 100 MW of CSP came online. This was primarily due to delayed signing of the REIPPPP...

With climate change being near unequivocally linked to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions there is an ongoing move to decarbonise economies globally with the electricity sector identified as a primary focus for most countries’ strategies. This research presents a Business-as-Usual scenario and electricity sector capacity expansion plans t...

This paper presents a study on supply and demand side flexibility resources assessed for two South African power system expansion scenarios with high penetrations of variable renewable energy. The demand response opportunities associated with residential water heating as well as plug-in electric vehicles are included in order to demonstrate demand-...

The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lo...

Energy master planning for municipalities is becoming increasingly important as more small-scale embedded generation deploys within municipal networks. This also affects the current business model in the purchasing of wholesale energy and provision of retail energy to customers (businesses/households). it is important to have an informed evidence-b...

The requirement for increased investment in electrical energy infrastructure in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) region is contextualised. Background on the SAPP is provided for reference. A brief assessment of historical capacity adequacy in the SAPP region shows historically sustained levels of inadequacy as well as distinctive investment c...

Purpose of Review Significant and mainly unpredicted advances in variable renewable energy technologies are resulting in structural shifts in energy systems globally causing an energy revolution. This review focuses on the implications for developing countries including the water-energy nexus. Recent Findings Developing countries typically feature...

Presentation from Panel Discussion at Windaba 2018

The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lo...

https://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/10492

https://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/10493

The energy transition being experienced globallyand now in South Africa introduces new challenges and opportunities for municipalities, with requisite changes in business models and tariffs. The creation of municipal energy master plans (MEMPs) is a critical foundation to determine what type of energy to procure when to procure and boundary conditi...

Scientific assessments are social processes which embrace exchanges between scientists and society. They are designed to allow for multiple interactions and encourage the co-generation of knowledge among a diversity of participants. Such a process was attempted in the South African context, applied to the contested social issue of shale gas develop...

This paper explores the relationship between system inertia and Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) with increased penetration of non-synchronous renewable energy power generation. For South Africa, using maximum RoCoF (1 Hz/s) over 500ms (as determined as acceptable for the Irish system) and largest credible multiple contingency, the minimum syst...

The value associated with an improved VRE forecast in South Africa at a national scale has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts in South Africa increases with increasing VRE penetration levels with the range of this value becoming wider at increasing penetration levels. This value also saturates with high levels of...

This paper was first released in February 2018 by the National Planning Commission (NPC) of South Africa. The NPC is an independent body appointed by the President of South Africa and consisting of experts in diverse field. Commissioners serve for a five-year term on a part-time basis. The responsibility of the first Commission was to develop a lo...

The CSIR’s Energy Centre conducted statistics on the actual hourly aggregated utility-scale wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) generation in 2017. 1 978 MW of wind, 1 474 MW of solar PV and 300 MW of CSP were operational and fed energy into the grid by December 2017. From Jan-Dec 2017, total wind, solar PV and CSP prod...

This paper presents a study on the flexibility resources assessed for two South African generation expansion scenarios with a high penetration of variable renewable energy. The demand response opportunities associated with residential water heating and plug in electric vehicles are included in the analysis. The scenario based results indicate that...

This paper presents a study on supply and demand side flexibility resources assessed for two South African power system expansion scenarios with high penetrations of variable renewable energy. The demand response opportunities associated with residential water heating as well as plug-in electric vehicles are included in order to demonstrate demand-...

A LEAST-COST ENERGY MIX – the backbone of economic development in SA

Presentation of Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa (15/11/2017)

South Africa has a predominantly coal-based energy system and a particularly coal dominated electricity system due to a large domestic coal resource and favourable generation technology economics. A more recently well understood wind (and solar) resource in South Africa combined with large geographical land-area and technology cost reductions globa...

This paper explores the relationship between system inertia and Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) in a changing world with increased penetration of non-synchronous renewable energy power generation (wind and solar PV). Research performed for the Irish Regulator (CER) showed that a RoCoF of 1 Hz/s measured over 500 ms can be tolerated by consumers...

Over the last few years, the cost of wind energy in South Africa has decreased by more than 50% and is expected to continue to decrease by a further 50% by 2040. However, wind energy is variable which makes it difficult to compare costs (LCOE) directly with dispatchable power generation options on the basis of its relative cost alone. This paper lo...

The cost of solar photovoltaics has dropped considerably over the last decade and are expected to continue to decline and studies have shown that South Africa has significant solar resource across the entire country. Solar PV energy is however variable which makes it difficult to compare to dispatchable power generation options on the basis of its...

Reliable and environmentally responsible electricity has received much attention in the electric power industry and has guided the focus of work products from many professional technical organizations. Affordability of electric service is another dimension of electric service provision tied to technical considerations that merits attention. This p...

Formal comments provided by the CSIR as part of the South African IRP 2016 public participation process

As a result of the substantial population growth within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region in the past 20 years increased pressure has been placed on countries to develop energy infrastructure. The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) was established in 1995 to assist in the cooperation and coordination between SADC countries in...

Initial comments provided as part of South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan 2016

The potential economic and energy security opportunities of a medium to large shale gas resource could be substantial for South Africa; as are both the potential social and environmental risks associated with a domestic gas industry in the Central Karoo. The development of shale gas using vertical and horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing or...

Solar PV, wind and natural gas is the cheapest new-build mix for the South African power system It is the cost-optimal expansion to aim for a 70% renewable energy share by 2040 This “Re-Optimised” mix is almost R90 billion per year cheaper by 2040 than the Business-as-Usual scenario (without factoring in cost of CO2 emissions – difference is > R100...

Reserve provision from standalone solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants has to date not been adopted in practice but has been conceptualised by a number of authors for variable renewable energy (RE) power plants like solar PV and wind. The authors have assessed the economic viability of this application in a developing country with low-levels of sol...

The electrical power sector in Africa is rapidly evolving as countries adopt novel and disruptive approaches/technologies to fulfil electrification goals and stimulate private investment in order to ensure supply adequacy and grow their economies. This all while remaining cognisant of the requirement for a sustainable sector via combinations of ene...

Reserve provision from standalone solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants has to date not been adopted in practice but has been conceptualised by a number of authors for variable renewable energy (RE) power plants like solar PV and wind. The authors have assessed the economic viability of this application in a developing country with low-levels of sol...

Following a brief background on Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP) electricity markets and wind/solar photo-voltaic (PV) capacity in Africa and globally, this paper explores some of the typical challenges and opportunities that should be expected for wind and solar PV deployment in the EAPP region. A range of analytical models have been developed to...

Significant growth in installed capacity of solar PV and wind generation has taken place globally with the largest contributors being the USA, Europe (mostly Germany) and China. Projections for solar PV and wind generation capacity seem to indicate that this growth will continue into the future. The lack of electrical networks in resource rich area...

Although significant historical investment in power system capacity placed African countries in a strong position to meet increasing demand, this capacity has been absorbed by significantly increased levels of demand as a result of economic growth and intensive electrification programmes. Even though long term capacity expansion is planned, system...

An energy model for EAPP is in development using PLEXOS® and currently includes hourly level demand and energy forecasts (2010-2038), existing grid connected generators, fuels, emissions and existing/planned inter-country interconnectors with their technical characteristics modelled accordingly. The developed energy model has been used for three ca...

With the first round of renewable energy projects in South Africa's Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPPP) reaching commercial operation, this paper aims to provide insight into what was learnt from the commissioning processes and what can be improved for the next REIPPPP rounds. We outline and compare the commissioning pro...

Parsons Brinckerhoff Africa (PB) in association with ACE Energy and PPA Energy was contracted by the Government of Rwanda (GOR) through the Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) in Rwanda to formulate a National Electricity Grid Code ('Grid Code') for Rwanda. The Grid Code was successfully delivered to the client encompassing the requirements of th...

There have been significant increases in wind energy generation in recent years with an 11-fold increase in installed capacity in the past decade. This increase has resulted in many regulatory bodies defining grid codes specifically for wind energy. This paper provides a guide to engineers wishing to perform grid code compliance studies in the Sout...

This paper presents the steady state and transient modelling of a small central/eastern African utility. It is shown that the existing network is radial and does not comply with the typical technical limit criteria for normal N-0 and N-1 conditions. The methodology followed to model generators, excitations systems, Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVR...

A 4-pole Reluctance Synchronous Machine (RSM) electromagnetic and mechanical design is presented using commercially available Finite Element Method (FEM) software packages-FLUX 10.2 and ANSYS 12. User def ned functionality is obtained via Python and the embedded PyFLUX command language in FLUX 10.2. The electromagnetic design focuses on maximum mea...

The Reluctance Synchronous Machine (RSM) is fast becoming an alternative in variable speed applications owing to its many favorable characteristics. A four-pole RSM dynamic design procedure is presented utilising Python and the embedded PyFLUX language in FLUX 10.2. The design approach focuses on maximum mean torque and minimum torque ripple. Sever...

A Finite Element Method (FEM) model of a 55 kW 3-phase 4-pole Squirrel Cage Induction Machine (SCIM) has been developed in FLUX. Automatic geometry and physics development is attained via Python scripting, embedded in FLUX. The rated steady-state operation of the machine is determined for various values of slip around rated slip and results seem to...

A FEM model of a 55 kW 3-phase 4-pole squirrel cage induction machine has been developed in FLUX 10.2-a commercially available FEM software package. Automatic geometry and physics development is attained via the use of script files in Python which is embedded in FLUX 10.2. A reasonable torque-speed curve is found which seems to correlate closely wi...