Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

University of Turku | UTU · Finland Futures Research Centre

Petri Virtanen , Jari Kaivo-oja , (2015) "Public service systems and emerging systemic governance challenges", International Journal of Public Leadership, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp. - This conceptual paper addresses questions related to public service delivery. Specifically, we note that existing research relating to public services is usually based on...

Climate change has been described by scientists, environmentalists and politicians as a threat unprecedented in human experience. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities constitute the proximate cause. Greenhouse gas emissions are related to the efficiency developments of spatial energy systems. The study analyses the efficiency develop...

This study is a comparative analysis of energy production and CO>SUB align=right>>SMALL>2>/SMALL>>/SUB> emission flows in the G-7 countries in the years 1960-1999. The comparative analyses are based on the complete decomposition methodology. The authors provide an analysis of dynamic changes of energy and CO>SUB align=right>>SMALL>2>/SMALL>>/SUB> e...

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refe...

Diss. -- Tampereen yliopisto.

This article provides data-driven analyses of Lithuanian foreign trade activities. We combine Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and Lauraéus-Kaivo-oja Index (LKI) measures to identify key changes and trends in export and import structures of the Lithuanian economy. The findings suggest that the export and import portfolios of the Lithuanian economy...

There are worrying features in the development of Finland’s demographic popula-tion structures recently. The population is ageing, and the birth rate is falling, and the demographic structure is changing so that there are fewer people in active work-ing life than before. This development can also be seen in the developments of de-mographic, child a...

This study aims to propose methods for identifying entrepreneurial discovery processes with weak/strong signals of technological changes and incorporating technology foresight in the design and planning of the Smart Specialization Strategy (S3). For this purpose, we first analyse patent abstracts from 2000 to 2009, obtained from the European Patent...

The European Commission has presented how it intends to give Europe a lead in the data-driven economy by enabling cloud-based services and world-class infrastructures for industry, scientists, and public services. In 2011 we discussed and proposed the cloud university platform for the European Union in the European Integration Studies. The purpose...

This article looks at the development of Cuba from economic and global perspectives. These two perspectives are directly in relation to one another. We discuss first the historical development, Cuban Revolution, cooperation with the Soviet Union and the aspects of bilateral trade. In this context, we also discuss the economic cooperation with Venez...

Este artículo analiza el desarrollo de Cuba desde una perspectiva económica y global. Estas dos perspectivas están directamente relacionadas entre sí. Discutimos primero el desarrollo histórico, la Revolución Cubana, la cooperación con la Unión Soviética y los aspectos del comercio bilateral. En este contexto, también discutimos la cooperación econ...

This study aims to propose methods for identifying entrepreneurial discovery processes with weak/strong signals of technological changes and incorporating technology foresight in the design and planning of the Smart Specialization Strategy (S3). For this purpose, we first analyse patent abstracts from 2000 to 2009, obtained from the European Patent...

How to combine expert judgment and mass intelligence? This study can be characterized as methodological concept development. We combine the relevant theories and methodological approaches from expert-dominated Delphi methods and layman-dominated crowdsourcing approaches to introduce a novel Crowdsourcing Delphi research approach. The key contributi...

The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and pr...

In this article, we analyse Google trends of Industry 4.0 technologies and key concepts. This study provides global landscape analysis of Industry 4.0 technologies and two key concepts, digital transformation and business transformation in years 2004–2021. The study reports key trends of Google Trends database. To understand (1) the importance of k...

This paper aims to identify global digital trends across industries and to map emerging business areas by co-word analysis. As the industrial landscape has become complex and dynamic due to the rapid pace of technological changes and digital transformation, identifying industrial trends can be critical for strategic planning and investment policy a...

The aim of this article is to analyse the current situation of access to energy (in relation to SDG 7) and energy usage behaviour in households in two provinces in Cambodia, namely Pursat and Kampong Cham. The analytical framework is based on the energy ladder model and the energy stacking model as a starting point for assessing the current househo...

European research and innovation policy highlights the importance of transnational scientific collaboration, International collaborations in science concentrates and magnifies resources for conducting research and foster innovation. Often, individual institutions, or even individual European countries, cannot provide the right capabilities by thems...

In this article, we will discuss the export strategy of a company seeking to export its products and services to global markets. We note that the export strategy is always linked to the company's dynamic capabilities and business model. In this article, we present four basic business models, Business-to-Consumer, Business-to-Business, Business-to-G...

Research purpose. The study is focused on the Covid-19 pandemic crisis in the European Union. This study investigates the current driving trends and trade-offs of the Covid-19 pandemic phenomenon and social inclusion trends in the European countries. Design / Methodology / Approach. The methodology is based on conventional statistical index theory...

Research purpose. The study is focused on the expected market dynamics of global cobotics markets. This study investigates the current market structure of the global cobotics market. The scientific aim of the research is to report the first data-based market structure analysis of the global cobotics market with the HHI index and with the LKI index...

This paper outlines a sustainable portfolio theory (SPT) by extending the existing modern portfolio theory (MPT). This extension consists of three actionable components: 1) focus on the intentionality of investments, i.e., defining impact and financial return; 2) add sustainability information and uncertainty into investment analyses, and 3) replac...

Industry 4.0 revolution has brought rapid technological growth and development in manufacturing industries. Technological development enables efficient manufacturing processes and brings changes in human work, which may cause new threats to employee well-being and challenge their existing skills and knowledge. Human factors and ergonomics (HF/E) is...

Abstract: We analyse longitudinal data of the 2008–2017 Gartner hype cycles and key ICT technologies (151 technologies) in the world. In this study, we have calculated six different index analyses, Our analyses use the following index analyses: 1) ranking index analysis; 2) technology power index analysis; 3) better than other technology power inde...

The doughnut economy is a new approach for the inclusion of planetary boundaries and social foundation in the development of societies. The Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (UN) determine another view for development targets. The developed sustainability window approach provides a means for operationalization and quantification o...

This chapter focuses on trends closely related to energy transition and the dual challenge of digitalization and climate neutrality. The authors combine the trend pyramid model with a multilevel perspective approach to assess the evolution of historical trends at the global, national, and micro-levels. They first conduct an analysis of discursive s...

The Doughnut Economy is a new approach for the inclusion of planetary boundaries and social foundation in the development of societies. The Sustainable Development Goals of the UN determine another view for development targets. The developed Sustainability Window approach provides a means for operationalisation and quantification of the Doughnut Ec...

Given the overwhelming increase in technological advancements and global warming concerns, our study attempts to investigate the predictive powers of green human resource management (GHRM) bundles and green team creativity on green product innovation. Additionally, we examine the roles of technological turbulence and environmental dynamic capabilit...

A green economy that simultaneously promotes environmental sustainability, social inclusiveness, and economic growth is expected to benefit the heavily resource-dependent least developed countries. Yet, internationally, there is very little empirically based research on how the “green development” agenda translates into natural resource management...

The ability to cope with technical change is not evenly distributed geographically. It is possible to evaluate and forecast this ability by creating metrics that capture preparedness to face technical change by looking at multiple factors. This chapter presents selected metrics to measure preparedness and discusses how such metrics can be used with...

Collaborative Robots (Cobots) play an increasing role in the advanced manufacturing landscape. The cobot market is rapidly expanding, and the academic literature is similarly growing. This paper presents a short overview of current cobotic trends and futures frontiers of the cobot development with particular emphasis on the role of cobots within th...

This paper explores the potential of big data, such as those compiled by the Google Books project, to inform the dominant theories of the firm that tend to be grounded on strong assumptions about the capitalist nature of the modern society. Combining the novel methodologies of the digital age with Niklas Luhmann's theory of functional differentiati...

We are in the midst of a significant transformation regarding the way we produce products and deliver services thanks to the digitisation of manufacturing and new connected supply-chains and co-creation systems. This article elaborates digital twins approach to the current challenges of knowledge management when Industry 4.0 is emerging in industri...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how much value national governments worldwide place on political, economic, scientific, artistic, religious, legal, sportive, health-related, educational and mass media-related issues. This knowledge is critical as governments and policies are typically expected to be congruent with the importance th...

Seeking to advance a big data approach to social theory, Roth et al. (2017) applied the Google Ngram Viewer toexplore the way the evolution of the function systems of the modern society is reflected in the Google Bookscorpus. The authors produced a highly counterintuitivefinding that the modern Western societies cannot beadequately described as cap...

Maamme luonnollinen väestönkasvu on viime vuosina ollut negatiivista eli syntyvyys on ollut kuolleisuutta pienempi. Väestönkasvu onkin pitkälti ollut nettomaahanmuuton varassa. Artikkeli tarkastelee, miten tämä kehitys näkyy maamme väestöllisissä ja taloudellisissa huoltosuhteissa suuralueilla ja maakunnissa vuosina 1990−2017. Väestöllinen huoltosu...

Inclusiveness has become one of the leading goals of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The paper focuses, first, on the potential for building trust and partnership among various actors at the local government and, secondly, explores co-governance and the Service-Dominant Logic (SDL) framework in understanding trust and partnership in th...

Knowledge management in organizations brings many benefits for R&D operations of companies and corporations. This empirical study demonstrates the power of large database analyses for industrial strategies and policy. The study is based on the Web of Science database (Core Collection, ISI) and provides an overview of the core enabling technologies...

We’re in the midst of a significant transformation regarding the way we produce products and deliver services thanks to the digitization of manufacturing and new connected supply-chains and co-creation systems. This article elaborates Digital Twins Approach to the current challenges of knowledge management when Industry 4.0 is emerging in industrie...

Purpose: This paper aims to extend the existing views of coopetition into the broader context of open coopetition. Design/methodology/approach: The authors build on the literature about open innovation cooperation between competitors in the open-source software industry, which we generalize to show that open coopetition between competitors and thir...

The aim of the paper is to develop novel scientific metrics approach to the European Smart Specialization Strategy. The European Union (EU) has introduced Smart Specialization Strategy (S3) to increase the innovation and competitive potential of its member states by identifying promising economic areas for investment and specialization. While the e...

A novel ‘Sustainability Window’ (SuWi) approach is applied for simultaneous analysis of the pillars of sustainable development; social, environmental and economic, of Lao PDR. This new method employs a variety of indicators for a comprehensive and holistic analysis of sustainable development and green inclusive economy. The analysis is grounded in...

Purpose: Are entrepreneurial opportunities discovered or created? The debate around this question has crucial implications for successful organizational change management in the business world. The present conceptual paper transcends this debate by embedding the concept of the entrepreneurial opportunities within a Luhmannian systems – theoretical...

This study provides an analysis of Cambodian socio‐economic and environmental development. The analysis applies the Sustainable Society Index—database and uses Sustainability Window analyses linked to the green growth strategy in Cambodia. The novel analyses provide criteria for weak and strong sustainability and are further developed to evaluate t...

Energy efficiency is a common element in European energy and climate policies. In the EU energy policy, energy efficiency is a policy target, and in the EU climate policy, energy efficiency is a means to achieve the CO2 targets. In this paper, energy efficiency trends in the European Union and its 28 countries are analyzed during the period 1990–20...

https://ffrc.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/bridging-industry-4-0-and-circular-economy/

The purpose of the study is to investigate and elaborate the dynamic capabilities needed to manage disruptive busi-ness. This paper is a conceptual paper. Firstly, authors present key concept of technological disruption, which is highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Nowadays, in the market conditions of corporate foresight, VUCA (Volatil...

https://ffrc.wordpress.com/2018/08/20/are-we-in-the-midst-of-a-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Abstract: This article makes a case for the significance that barriers have for new venture discovery. Since markets are social phenomena, new venture discoveries necessarily refer to the crossing of social borders. We draw on social systems theory and theories of social differentiation to understand how social borders are drawn. We demonstrate how...

After decades of globalization and outsourcing the idea of “bringing manufacturing back home” and the twin concepts of backshoring and nearshoring have received much attention in recent years. Recent positive stories from the Finnish manufacturing industry suggests Finland as an attractive target for nearshoring, yet little to none has hitherto bee...

Background: This paper’s focus is on the synergy in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GERD (Gross Expenditure Research and Development) interaction in G7 countries. It allows us to present an explorative analysis of the relationships between key variables (in this case GDP and GERD). Further, it allows a critical synergy analysis on the long-run dyn...

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to present three different contributions to a general model theory which the authors think as relevant to systems research based on systems theory, cybernetics and constructivism. This also implies that the three contributions are shown to be of use both in the study of systems that operate by models, as well as...

Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy poli...

Highlights • Foresights and futures studies depend on the adequacy of our knowledge of the present and the past. • Big data evidence suggests that the English language area was not capitalist between 1800 and 2000. • Popular social macro trend statements ought to be regularly scrutinised so as to reduce the risk that inadequate trend assumptions ar...

Understanding the linkages between multiple targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may help to integrate different sectoral programmes and develop coherent cross-sectoral policy to explore synergies. Synergy is interaction among two or more actions, which will lead to an impact greater or less than the sum of individual effects. Therefore,...

Sähköautoja tarvitaan tieliikenteen hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämiseen Suomessa. Tähän mennessä ensisijainen keino päästövähennystavoitteiden saavuttamiseen on ollut biopolttoaineiden jakeluvelvoite, jossa Suomi on päättänyt edetä EU-velvoitetta nopeammin. Jatkossa tieliikenteessä syntyviä CO2-päästöjä pitää kuitenkin vähentää entistä enemmän. Tä...

Purpose Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of the business landscape. Turbulence can be summarised using the trendy managerial acronym ‘VUCA’: Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. This paper combines, for the first time, scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA...

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finla...

Reliable intellectual property (IP) statistics are providing a very important tool in understanding trends in global policy, global business, and technology developments worldwide. Today global innovation ecosystems are in fast transition. Economic analysis has taken an interest in studying the problems associated with technological change. Adequat...

Intellectual property rights (IPRs) such as patents, trademarks, designs and copyrights are increasingly traded in global markets. Acquisition of IP has become a key strategic tool for companies and corporations seeking to maintain and increase their markets while managing IP transactions and disputes, in particular involving ICT patents. The paten...

The idea of the article is to integrate knowledge management thinking to triangulation logic. Triangulation logic can be seen as a quality control mechanism in the field of knowledge management. Triangulation logic can also see as a critical knowledge management mechanism, which helps integrate inductive and deductive thinking in scientific project...

In current market conditions of corporate foresight turbulence is key element of business landscape. The definition of disruptive technology relates closely to disruptive innovation concept of Christensen (1997). Firstly, in the article authors present key definitions and difference between disruptive innovations, technological disruptions and radi...