J.A.P. Heesterbeek

J.A.P. Heesterbeek
Utrecht University | UU · Faculty of Veterinary Medicine

PhD; MSc Mathematics, MSc Phytopathology

About

232
Publications
88,751
Reads
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20,255
Citations
Citations since 2016
18 Research Items
11455 Citations
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201620172018201920202021202205001,0001,5002,0002,500
201620172018201920202021202205001,0001,5002,0002,500
Additional affiliations
November 2001 - present
Utrecht University
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (232)
Article
Full-text available
Arbovirus outbreaks in communities are affected by how vectors, hosts and non-competent species interact. In this study, we investigate how ecological interactions between species and epidemiological processes influence the invasion potential of a vector-borne disease. We use an eco-epidemiological model to explore the basic reproduction number R0...
Preprint
Lockdowns and associated measures imposed in response to the COVID-19 crisis inflict severe damage to society. Across the globe, scientists and policymakers study ways to lift measures while maintaining control of virus spread in circumstances that continuously change due to the evolution of new variants and increasing vaccination coverage. In this...
Article
In this paper, we present a method to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across regions with a focus on the role of mobility. Mobility has previously been shown to play a significant role in the spread of the virus, particularly between regions. Here, we investigate under which epidemiological circumstances incorporating mobility into transmission m...
Preprint
In this paper, we present a method to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across regions with a focus on the role of mobility. Mobility has previously been shown to play a significant role in the spread of the virus, particularly between regions. Here, we investigate under which epidemiological circumstances incorporating mobility into transmission m...
Article
Full-text available
Decreased and increased intrinsic growth rate and abundance of a single species can severely and negatively impact other species in the same food web. Here we compare the wider system effects of decreased and increased intrinsic growth rates of species occupying different trophic levels. Specifically, we derive the change in growth rate of a single...
Article
Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. We studied whether such indicators could reliably have anticipated the second COVID-19 wave in European countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that characteris...
Article
Ecological and epidemiological processes and interactions influence each other, positively and negatively, directly and indirectly. The invasion potential of pathogens is influenced by the ecosystem context of their host species' populations. This extends to the capacity of (multiple) host species to maintain their (common) pathogen and the way pat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. We studied whether such indicators could reliably have anticipated the second COVID-19 wave in European countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that characteris...
Article
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We use mobility data in the form of counts of travellers between regions, to extend the often-used SEIR models to...
Preprint
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We use mobility data in the form of counts of travelers between regions, to extend the often-used SEIR models to...
Article
Full-text available
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but th...
Preprint
Full-text available
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central r...
Article
Full-text available
Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn. In our view, COVID-19 has developed int...
Article
We use a previously published compartmental model of the dynamics of pathogens in ecosystems to define and explore the concepts of maintenance host, maintenance community and reservoir of infection in a full ecological context of interacting host and non-host species. We show that, contrary to their current use in the literature, these concepts can...
Chapter
The question of how biodiversity influences the emergence of infectious diseases is the subject of ongoing research. A set of nonlinear differential equations is been used to explore the interactions between ecology and epidemiology. The model allows for frequency-dependent transmission of infection within host species, and density-dependent transm...
Article
Thedilution effect, where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, anamplification effectoccurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using m...
Chapter
Introduction Interspecific interactions in ecological communities are the main mechanisms that determine structure, functioning, and stability of ecosystems (May, 1972, 1973; Neutel et al., 2002; Alessina and Tang, 2012; Mougi and Kondoh, 2012, 2014). These interactions can be qualitatively positive, negative, or neutral, and pairs of these interac...
Article
In this study, we develop a model to investigate how ecological factors might affect the dynamics of a vector-borne pathogen in a population composed by different hosts which interact with each other. Specifically, we consider the case when different host species compete with each other, as they share the same habitat, and the vector might have dif...
Article
Full-text available
Article
Full-text available
We discuss the context, content and importance of the paper 'The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts', by R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society as a stand-alone issue in 1981. We do this from the broader perspective of the study of infectious disease dynamics, r...
Poster
Full-text available
Arthropod vectors are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors Determining the distribution of vectors is an essential step in studying the risk of transmission of a pathogen Knowledge of the spatial distribution of vector species is important for estimating levels of risks of VBDs, enabling better targeting for surveillance and helps in des...
Article
Full-text available
Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and l...
Article
Full-text available
open access online at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436515000067
Article
Full-text available
Increases in human population size, dengue vector-density and human mobility cause rapid spread of dengue virus in Indonesia. We investigated the changes in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia over a 45-year period and determined age-specific trends in annual DHF incidence. Using an on-going nationwide dengue surveillance program...
Article
Full-text available
Infectious agents are part of food webs and ecosystems via the relationship with their host species that, in turn, interact with both hosts and non-hosts. Through these interactions, infectious agents influence food webs in terms of structure, functioning and stability. The present literature shows a broad range of impacts of infectious agents on f...
Article
Full-text available
Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opi...
Article
Palaearctic Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) represent a vital link in the northward advance of certain arboviral pathogens of livestock such as that caused by bluetongue virus. The effects of relevant ecological factors on weekly Culicoides vector abundances during the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemics in the Netherlands in 2007 an...
Article
Full-text available
Plague is a zoonotic infectious disease present in great gerbil populations in Kazakhstan. Infectious disease dynamics are influenced by the spatial distribution of the carriers (hosts) of the disease. The great gerbil, the main host in our study area, lives in burrows, which can be recognized on high resolution satellite imagery. In this study, us...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate estimation of population size is key to understanding the ecology of disease vectors, as well as the epidemiology of the pathogens they carry and to plan effective control activities. Population size can be estimated through mark-Release-Recapture (MRR) experiments that are based on the assumption that the ratio of recaptured individuals t...
Article
Full-text available
The control of chronic bacterial diseases with high prevalence in areas of endemicity would strongly benefit from availability of postexposure vaccines. The development of these vaccines against mycobacterial infections, such as (para)tuberculosis, is hampered by lack of experience in natural hosts. Paratuberculosis in cattle is both a mycobacteria...
Article
Full-text available
Many infections can be transmitted between animals and humans. The epidemiological roles of different species can vary from important reservoirs to dead-end hosts. Here, we present a method to identify transmission cycles in different combinations of species from field data. We used this method to synthesise epidemiological and ecological data from...
Data
Full-text available
Data. Contains the gambiense HAT prevalence data in different host and vector species as well as measured biting preferences and other parameters of the gambiense HAT transmission model. (PDF)
Data
Full-text available
Model formulation. Contains details of relating the NGM to the basic and host-specific reproduction numbers in a multi-host, mulit-vector system; a detailed description of the modelling framework for HAT; and a brief overview of possible model extensions. (PDF)
Article
Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic...
Article
Full-text available
Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions rem...
Chapter
This chapter discusses the case of an epidemic in a closed population. “Closed” means that demographic turnover, emigration, and immigration are not considered. The following questions may be asked: Does this cause an epidemic? If so, at what rate does the number of infected hosts increase during the rise of the epidemic? What proportion of the pop...
Chapter
This chapter considers the case of individuals who differ from each other with respect to traits that are relevant for the transmission of an infectious agent. How do we describe the spread of the agent? How do we quantify the infectivity? What happens in the initial phase? Can we characterize the final size? Examples of the “traits” we have in min...
Chapter
This chapter focuses on the influence of the demography on the persistence of an infective agent, and vice versa on the influence of the agent on host population growth and persistence. When new “fuel” is provided through the replacement of immune individuals by newborn susceptibles, the infective agent may strike again at a later time or even pers...
Chapter
This chapter is devoted to the initial real-time growth rate r, the probability of a major outbreak, the final size, and the endemic level, in structured populations, with special attention for computational simplifications in the case of separable mixing. Chapter 7 studied the basic reproduction number R₀ for epidemic models in populations manifes...
Chapter
This chapter discusses the case of an epidemic in a closed population. “Closed” means that demographic turnover, emigration, and immigration are not considered. The following questions may be asked: Does this cause an epidemic? If so, at what rate does the number of infected hosts increase during the rise of the epidemic? What proportion of the pop...
Chapter
This chapter concentrates on the asymptotic speed of propagation c₀ as an important indicator of the spread at the population level in a spatially structured population. Within the context of idealized models, it unambiguously defined the (asymptotic) speed c₀ of the spatial propagation of an infection, and characterized c₀ in terms of the basic mo...
Chapter
Chapter 6 showed that the defining mathematical distinction between microparasites and macroparasites is that for macroparasites, as a rule, reinfection through the environment is essential to get an increase in individual infectious load and consequent infectious output. This chapter gives a brief introduction to the consequences that this distinc...
Chapter
This chapter defines a stochastic counterpart to the homogeneous deterministic epidemic model introduced in Chapter 1. The model considers a homogeneous community of individuals that mix uniformly, meaning that there is no social structure in the community. The word “mix” is used in the sense of engaging in a type of contact that may possibly lead...
Chapter
Chapters 5, 13 and 14 presented methods for making inference about infectious diseases from available data. This is of course one of the main motivations for modeling: learning about important features, such as R₀, the initial growth rate, potential outbreak sizes and what effect different control measures might have in the context of specific infe...
Chapter
This chapter first considers the case when individuals differ only in infectivity, which means that one can in a sense, simply work with the “average” individual. It then exposes a crucial, but hitherto hidden, assumption, namely that the contact process is uniform. If, in contrast, the population is represented by a spatial lattice or a social net...
Chapter
The treatment of hospital patients suffering from bacterial infections is increasingly hampered by antibiotic resistance. When the means of curing infections diminish, the prevention of infection gains importance. If we want to ascertain the effectiveness of various potential control measures, we need to know whether cross-transmission or opportuni...
Chapter
The basic reproduction number (or ratio) R₀ is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. It is among the quantities most urgently estimated for infectious diseases in outbreak situations, and its value provides insight when designing control interventions for established infections. From a theoretical point of view R₀...
Book
Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic...
Chapter
This chapter presents a selection of methods to estimate a value of the basic reproduction number R₀ from a variety of available data. The estimation of R₀ is important, as these play a major role, for example, in gauging outbreak potential, and in public health decisions on prevention and control effort. The chapter focuses on three topics: (i) ge...
Chapter
This chapter describes methods for making inferences about key epidemiological parameters from available data. The chapter presents the powerful statistical method called maximum-likelihood (ML) which is illustrated in the context of a simple transmission model for intensive care units (ICU). This is further developed to derive estimators for the p...
Chapter
Chapters 5, 13 and 14 presented methods for making inference about. infectious diseases from available data. This is of course one of the main motivations for modeling: learning about important features, such as R, the initial growth rate, potential outbreak sizes and what effect different control measures might have in the context of specific infe...
Chapter
This chapter discusses the case of an epidemic in a closed population. Closed means that demographic turnover, emigration, and immigration are not considered. The following questions may be asked: Does this cause an epidemic? If so, at what rate does the number of infected hosts increase during the rise of the epidemic? What proportion of the popul...
Chapter
This chapter elaborates on the special case of age structure. Especially in the context of infectious diseases among humans, “age” is often used to characterize individuals. Partly this reflects our system of public health administration (and, perhaps, our preoccupation with age). There is, however, a more “mechanistic” reason to incorporate age st...
Chapter
This chapter focuses on the myriad ways in which one can model contacts between individuals. The two most important aspects of contacts for infection transmission are (1) the number of contacts per unit of time, and (2) the number of different individuals with whom these contacts occur. Aspect 1 is concerned not only with variation in the number of...
Article
Full-text available
We address the interaction of ecological processes, such as consumer-resource relationships and competition, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases spreading in ecosystems. Modelling such interactions seems essential to understand the dynamics of infectious agents in communities consisting of interacting host and non-host species. We show how...
Article
Full-text available
A new quantity called the target reproduction number is defined to measure control strategies for infectious diseases with multiple host types such as waterborne, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. The target reproduction number includes as a special case and extends the type reproduction number to allow disease control targeting contacts between...
Article
Full-text available
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a disease that was introduced relatively recently into the Kruger National Park (KNP) lion population. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV(ple)) is thought to have been endemic in lions for a much longer time. In humans, co-infection between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodefic...
Article
Ecology Letters (2012) A core concept of infectious disease epidemiology is the abundance threshold, below which an infection is unable to invade or persist. There have been contrasting theoretical predictions regarding the nature of this threshold for vector-borne diseases, but for infections with an invertebrate vector, it is common to assume a t...
Article
Full-text available
Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidem...
Article
Full-text available
One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the...
Article
Full-text available
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (clima...
Data
Derivation of the temperature-dependent parameters. (DOC)
Data
Translating the predicted number per trap into vector density. (DOC)