Jannicke Moe

Jannicke Moe
Norwegian Institute for Water Research | NIVA · Section for Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment

PhD

About

94
Publications
26,206
Reads
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3,508
Citations
Citations since 2017
48 Research Items
2024 Citations
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Publications

Publications (94)
Preprint
Full-text available
In recent years, Bayesian network (BN) models have become more popular as a tool to support probabilistic environmental risk assessments (ERA). They can better account for and communicate uncertainty compared to the deterministic approaches currently used in traditional ERA. In this study, we used the BN as a meta-model to predict the potential eff...
Article
Full-text available
Quantitative adverse outcome pathway network (qAOPN) is gaining momentum due to the predictive nature, alignment with quantitative risk assessment and great potential as a computational new approach methodology (NAM) to reduce laboratory animal tests. The present work aimed to demonstrate two advanced modeling approaches, piecewise structural equat...
Article
The regulation and monitoring of pharmaceutical pollution in Europe lag behind that of more prominent groups. However, the repurposing of sales data to predict surface water environmental concentrations is a promising supplement to more commonly used market-based risk assessment and measurement approaches. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (...
Article
Full-text available
The use of Bayesian networks (BN) for environmental risk assessment has increased in recent years as they offer a more transparent way to characterize risk and evaluate uncertainty than the traditional risk assessment paradigms. In this study, a novel probabilistic approach applying a BN for risk calculation was further developed and explored by li...
Article
Full-text available
Freshwater management is challenging, and advance warning that poor water quality was likely, a season ahead, could allow for preventative measures to be put in place. To this end, we developed a Bayesian network (BN) for seasonal lake water quality prediction. BNs have become popular in recent years, but the vast majority are discrete. Here, we de...
Preprint
The use of Bayesian networks (BN) for environmental risk assessment has increased in recent years. One reason is that they offer a more transparent way to characterize risk and evaluate uncertainty than the traditional risk assessment paradigms. In this study, we explore a new approach to probabilistic risk assessment by developing and applying a B...
Article
The regulation and monitoring of pharmaceutical pollution in Europe lag behind that of more prominent groups. However, the repurposing of sales data to predict surface water environmental concentrations is a promising supplement to more commonly used market-based risk assessment and measurement approaches. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (...
Article
Full-text available
By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure o...
Preprint
Full-text available
Observations are key to understand the drivers of biodiversity loss, and the impacts on ecosystem services and ultimately on people. Many EU policies and initiatives demand unbiased, integrated and regularly updated biodiversity and ecosystem service data. However, efforts to monitor biodiversity are spatially and temporally fragmented, taxonomical...
Article
Acute fish toxicity (AFT) is a key endpoint in nearly all regulatory implementations of environmental hazard assessments of chemicals globally. While it is an early tier assay, the AFT assay is complex and utilizes many juvenile fish each year for the registration and assessment of chemicals. Thus, it is imperative to seek animal alternative approa...
Preprint
Full-text available
Freshwater management is challenging, and advance warning that poor water quality was likely, a season ahead, could allow for preventative measures to be put in place. To this end, we developed a Bayesian network (BN) for seasonal lake water quality prediction. BNs have become popular in recent years, but the vast majority are discrete. Here we dev...
Article
By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure o...
Article
Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency, by using probability distributions for exposure and/or...
Article
Full-text available
Lake surface temperatures have increased globally in recent decades. Climate change can affect lake biota directly via enhanced water temperatures, shorter ice cover duration and prolonged stratification, and indirectly via changes in species interactions. Changes in the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton and zooplankton can further affect whole la...
Article
Full-text available
Freshwater species are particularly vulnerable to emerging threats linked to climate change because they are often already heavily impacted by habitat destruction, pollution, and exploitation. For many harvested populations of freshwater fish, these combined impacts have been mitigated for decades through stocking with captive-bred individuals. How...
Preprint
Full-text available
Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency, by using probability distributions for exposure and/or...
Presentation
Full-text available
Quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) is gaining momentum due to the predictive nature and alignment with quantitative risk assessment. A wide range of modeling approaches can potentially assist the construction of qAOPs. Among these, piecewise structural equation modeling (PSEM) is considered highly suitable for qAOP network construction. Th...
Poster
Full-text available
An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network has been developed to describe the adverse effect of UV-B radiation (AOP #327−330). This tentative AOP, which is the first AOP for a non-chemical stressor, is a complex network linking a molecular initiating event (MIE: cellular ROS formation) to an adverse outcome (AO: reduced survival of a crustacean), thr...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Draft risk assessment model (Bayesian network) for agricultural chemicals developed for one of the case study regions Deliverable for MCSA ITN project ECORISK2050: Effects of global change on the emission, fate, effects and risks of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems
Article
Full-text available
EDITOR'S NOTE: This article is part of the special series "Applications of Bayesian Networks for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management" and was generated from a session on the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) in environmental modeling and assessment in 1 of 3 recent conferences: SETAC North America 2018 (Sacramento), SETAC Europe 2019 (Helsink...
Poster
Full-text available
Due to the high number of chemicals and species, it is not feasible to assess the risk of every chemical to human and ecosystems. Cost-effective alternative ecotoxicity testing strategies with reduced needs for laboratory animal use are highly demanded. New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), such as high-throughput screening and high-content toxicogeno...
Article
Full-text available
The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has gained international recognition as a systematic approach linking mechanistic processes to toxicity endpoints. Nevertheless, successful implementation into risk assessments is still limited by the lack of quantitative AOP models (qAOPs) and assessment of uncertainties. The few published qAOP models so...
Article
Full-text available
Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses, i.e. additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects. Currently we know little about the spatial scale relevant for the outcome of such interactions and about effect sizes. This knowledge gap needs to be filled to underpin...
Article
Full-text available
Cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs currently threaten water security and affect the ecosystem services provided by these freshwater ecosystems, such as drinking water and recreational use. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation in the future because of higher temperatures, extended droughts and nutrient enrichment,...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Long-term data from marked animals provide a wealth of opportunities for studies with high relevance to both basic ecological understanding and successful management in a changing world. The key strength of such data is that they allow us to quantify individual variation in vital rates (e.g. survival, growth, reproduction) and then lin...
Preprint
Cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs currently threaten water security and affect the ecosystem services provided by these freshwater ecosystems, such as drinking water and recreational use. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation in the future because of higher temperatures, extended droughts and nutrient enrichment,...
Article
Full-text available
Evidence‐based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic versus natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life‐hi...
Article
Full-text available
Cyanobacterial blooms are considered a major threat to global water security with documented impacts on lake ecosystems and public health. Given that cyanobacteria possess highly adaptive traits that favor them to prevail under different and often complicated stressor regimes, predicting their abundance is challenging. A dataset from 822 Northern E...
Article
Full-text available
The use of fish embryo toxicity (FET) data for hazard assessments of chemicals, in place of acute fish toxicity (AFT) data, has long been the goal for many environmental scientists. The FET test was first proposed as a replacement to the standardized AFT test nearly 15 years ago, but as of now, it has still not been accepted as a standalone replace...
Article
Full-text available
A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) was developed for predicting the acute toxicity of chemicals to fish, using data from fish embryo toxicity (FET) testing in combination with other information. This model can support the use of FET data in a Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) approach for replacing the use of ju-venile fish. The BN predicted correct toxicity in...
Article
Full-text available
Marine aquaculture production has lately experienced high economic growth, but also concerns related to production and environmental contamination. For the Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry, the ectoparasitic crustacean salmon louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) has become a major problem. A common method to control populations of salmon lice within...
Article
Change in plants as bicarbonate rises Freshwater plants can be broadly divided into two major categories according to their photosynthetic traits: Some use carbon dioxide as their carbon source, whereas others use bicarbonate. Iversen et al. found that the relative concentrations of these two inorganic carbon forms in water determine the functional...
Preprint
Full-text available
A Bayesian network was developed for predicting the acute toxicity intervals of chemical substances to fish, based on information on fish embryo toxicity (FET) in combination with other information. This model can support the use of FET data in a Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) approach for replacing the use of juvenile fish. The BN predicted correct toxi...
Article
Full-text available
Lake ecosystems across the world are under combined pressures of eutrophication and climate change, which increase the risk of harmful cyanobacteria blooms, reduced ecological status, and degraded ecosystem services. In Europe, the third cycle of river basin management plans (2021–2027) according to the Water Framework Directive must take into acco...
Article
Full-text available
European countries have defined >1000 national river types and >400 national lake types to implement the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). In addition, common river and lake types have been defined within regions of Europe for intercalibrating the national classification systems for ecological status of water bodies. However, only a low proportio...
Article
Full-text available
Freshwaters are increasingly exposed to complex mixtures of pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) from municipal wastewater. PPCPs are known to alter freshwater communities’ structure and functioning, however, their interaction with other disturbances and whether their combined effects can impact ecological resilience (i.e. the ability...
Preprint
Full-text available
1. Humans are influencing animal and plant populations both directly (e.g.through harvest) and indirectly by altering environments. For many exploitedspecies, stocking with captive-bred individuals is a common strategy tomitigate negative human impacts and sustain populations over time. However,accumulating knowledge of negative side effects of sto...
Article
Full-text available
The presence of a multitude of bioactive organic pollutants collectively classified as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in freshwaters is of concern, considering that ecological assessments of their potential impacts on natural systems are still scarce. In this field experiment we tested whether a single pulse exposure to a mixtur...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Long-term data from marked animals provide a wealth of opportunities for studies with high relevance to both basic ecological understanding and successful management in a changing world. The key strength of such data is that they allow to quantify individual variation in vital rates (e.g. survival, growth, reproduction) and then link it...
Preprint
Full-text available
Evidence-based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic versus natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life-hi...
Article
Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradi...
Article
Variability in riverine flow regimes is important for aquatic biodiversity. However, across the globe, management of water resources has altered natural flow dynamics. We explored relationships between flow regime (calculated from three years’ daily averaged discharge), and water chemistry, benthic algae, as well as macroinvertebrate datasets from...
Article
Body size can have profound impacts on survival, movement, and reproductive schedules shaping individual fitness, making growth a central process in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Realized growth is the result of a complex interplay between life history schedules, individual variation, and environmental influences. Integrating all of these a...
Article
Full-text available
Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Summary D5.1-1 Part 1: Multi-stressors on surface water and effects on ecological statusHumans have increased the discharge of pollution, altered water flow regime and modified the morphology of rivers. All these actions have resulted in multiple pressures on freshwater ecosystems, undermining their biodiversity and ecological functioning. The Euro...
Article
Full-text available
Eutrophication of lakes and the risk of harmful cyanobacterial blooms due is a major challenge for management of aquatic ecosystems, and climate change is expected to reinforce these problems. Modelling of aquatic ecosystems has been widely used to predict effects of altered land use and climate change on water quality, assessed by chemistry and ph...
Chapter
Full-text available
An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to link a cascade of sub-models across drivers, pressures, states, impacts and societal responses to lake eutrophication. Systems dynamic, empirical and expert judgement models are integrated in the network to assess trade-offs in ecological, social and economic values from improving lake ecological condi...
Article
Full-text available
This report gives an overview of biological and other environmental monitoring data from Lake Vansjø in the Morsa river basin district, South-East Norway. The lake is impacted by eutrophication and has been subject to several nutrient abatement measures. The dataset comprises phytoplankon data at species level from 2005-2015, and water chemistry da...
Technical Report
Part 1: This deliverable consists two manuscripts (MS) of lake time-series analysis in north-temperate region of Europe. 1st MS: ‘Is fish able to regulate filamentous blue-green dominated phytoplankton?’ submitted to ‘Hydrobiologia’, analyzes >40-year data on biota, fish catches, hydrochemistry, hydrology, and meteorological parameters in Lake Võrt...
Technical Report
Part 1: This deliverable consists two manuscripts (MS) of lake time-series analysis in north-temperate region of Europe. 1st MS ‘Is fish able to regulate filamentous blue-green dominated phytoplankton?’ submitted to ‘Hydrobiologia’, analyzes >40-year data on biota, fish catches, hydrochemistry, hydrology, and meteorological parameters in Lake Võrts...
Research
Full-text available
Report on phytoplankton bloom metric. Deliverable D3-1-2. The enrichment of ecosystems with plant nutrients, or eutrophication, is one of the most widespread pressures affecting European freshwaters. There are numerous socio-economic problems associated with eutrophication, particularly with increasing frequency and intensity of harmful algal bloom...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report is exploring the possibilities of linking Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Habitats Directive (HD) information on types of water bodies and habitats, and their status, pressures and measures, by using WISE WFD information on types, ecological status, pressures and measures (EEA, 2012) and HD information on habitat types, conservation...
Article
A consensus has existed from the mid-2000s that climate change is occurring and is the result of anthropogenic causes (Oreskes 2004). Noyes et al. (2009) published the first description of the potential interactions between a warming environment and toxicology. Four years ago, an editorial in Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management (Wenn...
Article
Full-text available
A model network comprising climate models, a hydrological model, a catchment-scale model for phosphorus biogeochemistry, and a lake thermodynamics and plankton dynamics model was used to simulate phosphorus loadings, total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in Lake Vansjø, Southern Norway. The model network was automatically calibrated again...
Article
Few studies have compared the response of different taxonomic groups to environmental stress across aquatic ecosystems. We regressed assemblage structure of fish, invertebrates, macrophytes, phytoplankton and benthic diatoms to total phosphorus concentration, after removing the effect of ecosystem size (stream order, lake surface area), using data...
Article
This report focuses on potential effects of climate change on ecological reference conditions and on ecological responses to nutrient pressures in lakes, especially threshold-type and non-linear responses. Reference conditions and thresholds responses are both fundamental for na-tional ecological classification systems according to the European Wat...
Article
Full-text available
This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled "The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry." The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer...
Article
Full-text available
Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator-prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of cli...
Article
1. Species responses to global warming are predicted to be manifest as poleward and upward extension of species ranges, whereas cold-adapted species experience range retractions. We report on recent range retraction of a freshwater crustacean, the Arctic fairy shrimp Branchinecta paludosa (Branchiopoda, Anostraca) from alpine ponds of southern Norw...
Article
Full-text available
1. How climate warming may interact with other pressures on aquatic ecosystems is an important issue for research and management. We combined lake monitoring data with a palaeolimnological study to explore the combined effects of eutrophication and subsequent oligotrophication with a long-term temperature increase in epilimnetic waters. Our goals w...