Jani Kinnunen

Jani Kinnunen
Åbo Akademi University & Centre for Public Management (ASE)

About

119
Publications
30,960
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519
Citations
Introduction
Interests include broad applications using multi-criteria methods, machine learning and econometric solutions to various areas: Economics - Public Policy - Investment Analysis - Real Options - M&A - Analytics - Decision Support Systems - Applied Mathematics - Fuzzy Logic Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=fi&user=4kP1YvQAAAAJ
Additional affiliations
January 2007 - present
Åbo Akademi University

Publications

Publications (119)
Article
Full-text available
Pre-acquisition target screening is a task that often needs to be made fast, but is still complex, especially due to the need to estimate the value of possible synergies arising from an acquisition. Acquisition synergies are highly uncertain, difficult to explicitly quantify, and require successful management actions to be realized. The valuation o...
Article
Full-text available
Typical classification research of the United Nations’ Human Development Index, HDI, has focused on its direct underlying sub-indices, i.e., Gross National Income, GNI, Education and Health. In this paper, economic and political systems within which the elements of HDI are created are under study. We use Bertelsmann Foundation’s qualitative data fr...
Article
Full-text available
Fuzzy real options models have gained importance in investment modelling due to their practicality and easiness to implement and interpret. This paper introduces the center-of-gravity pay-off model for trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and compares it to the credibilistic and the original fuzzy pay-off models. The models are extended to interval-valued rea...
Article
Full-text available
Achieving a competitive economy and a competitive market, in general, comes from the desire to meet economic and social objectives and ensures a growing level of social welfare. The objectives of our research are to find out and highlight the bidirectional linear correlations between competitiveness, well-being and innovation and to analyze the mai...
Article
Full-text available
Objective: The objective of the article is to identify the reference group of countries with similar Covid strategies and other groups with their performance success, and to construct a composite Covid Mitigation Index for comparative purposes, thus, implying how to redesign the strategic policies. Research Design & Methods: Gaussian Mixture Modell...
Chapter
The increasing usage of mobile technology implies high acceptance of emerging digital technologies. The aim of this study is to identify the features and quantify their effects on the acceptance of mobile technology by consolidating the uses and gratifications theory (UGT) and technology acceptance model (TAM) as the theoretical framework. The cont...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Fuzzy real options modeling has developed greatly in the last decade. Fuzzy real options are for real investments what financial options are for investments on financial assets. Main differences from the valuation perspective include , e.g., that real investments are often unique, and their real option value cannot be derived from market data. The...
Chapter
Full-text available
We have been living in the digital age for decades, and the impact of technology is seen in all aspects of our lives, however, when Covid-19 pandemic began and spread throughout the world, during the first year, over 100 countries worldwide had instituted either a full or partial lockdown. In the new situation, the use of technology to facilitate c...
Article
Full-text available
Research on behavioral factors influencing website quality has resulted in user-centered website design methods. User Experience (UX) research and design are promising in identifying users' needs, requirements, expectations, and desires to enhance their satisfaction with digital products and services. This study employs User Experience Honeycomb to...
Article
Full-text available
With the extraordinary growth of both mis- and disinformation, it has become even more vital to prepare content to provide accurate information so that users receive concepts correctly. With the spread of the Internet and the Web 2.0, websites are responsible for publishing information. While most attention is on the advanced technology and graphic...
Article
Full-text available
The paper is based on research that identified and analyzed the effects of the variable context of the period 2011-2019 on the entrepreneur's businesses from 16 states. The database used in this research has been selected from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. The data were obtained based on surveys involving adult entrepreneurs. The aim of the...
Article
Full-text available
Effective digitalization of public administrations and economies requires rethinking of how e-government and digital services with increasing e-participation can support corruption reduction and social development. This paper aims to study the interdependencies and differences between the multidimensional phenomena of administrative corruption and...
Article
Full-text available
Sustainable economic growth is desired to be achieved by governments targeting economic, social, and environmental benefits. The idea of circular economy model is to consider feedback effects from proper waste management instead of one-way effects typical with the classical linear model. Several sectors of society contribute to circular economy and...
Chapter
Full-text available
In the last two decades, behavioural science has influenced technology design and developed the models and methods of user-centered design, human-technology interaction, and user experience to increase user satisfaction. Currently, designers are utilizing the results of human science studies to develop the effectiveness of technology and increase a...
Chapter
The increasing usage of mobile technology implies high acceptance of emerging digital technologies. The aim of this study is to identify the features and quantify their effects on the acceptance of mobile technology by consolidating the Use and Gratification Theory (UGT) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) as the theoretical framework. The contex...
Chapter
Full-text available
With the indispensable role of the Internet in information transfer, ensuring the validity and accuracy of data are ever more important. Digital public ser-vices are expected from e-governments. Such services will require user-centric websites as well as full interoperable platforms. Many studies have shown the lack of user satisfaction with websit...
Article
Full-text available
It is known that the evolution of digital technologies, together with a combination of other essential generic technologies, leads to a change in the way we design, produce and market related products and services, as well as in the way how value is generated from them. Digitalization and transformation of the business process to create remarkable...
Chapter
Fuzzy real options analysis has advanced greatly during the last decade, specifically, through the development of so-called fuzzy pay off techniques. The practicality and intuitiveness of these methods allow their straightforward integration into any spreadsheet or other evaluation systems for easy applications of real options thinking to real inve...
Chapter
Digitalization and artificial intelligence are growing in importance as parts of decision-support tools in various application domains. One of the important developments in this vein has been the creation of interactive tools for coaching users of complex decision-support systems to help them successfully and correctly use the said systems. This pa...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper explores the effects of attitudes on total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA). The data is obtained from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor's Adult Population Surveys (APS) on the characteristics and motivations of individuals to start new businesses. The dataset consists, e.g., of individuals' entrepreneurial intentions, their...
Chapter
Full-text available
Fuzzy real options analysis has gained increasing attention among investment practitioners as well as investment theory-focused academics. The strength of the real option valuation (ROV) models, when compared to the more traditional net-present-value methods, is that they can account for flexibility, which is often available in long-term real inves...
Conference Paper
The implications of entrepreneurial conditions, opportunities, and attitudes for total entrepreneurial activity (TEA) are under study. The data is obtained from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and Heritage Foundation for ten European Union countries, which had long enough time-series data available. The set of indicators include variables to de...
Conference Paper
Real options valuation models can capture the value effects of flexibility, which net-present-value models cannot do properly. This type of optionalities are typical in long-term strategic investments as well as in evaluations of public policies. The original credibilistic fuzzy pay-off method for real options valuation is extended with trapezoidal...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Digitalization and artificial intelligence are growing in importance as parts of decision-support tools in various application domains. One of the important developments in this vein has been the creation of interactive tools for coaching users of complex decision-support systems to help them successfully and correctly use the said systems. This pa...
Chapter
Full-text available
Technology, with its rapid growth and vast impacts on all areas of human life, has increased well-being and facilitated daily tasks in our private life as well as in business and marketing, medical and healthcare services, and education. The global Covid-19 pandemic has shown the importance of Internet and technology to keep businesses running and...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Fuzzy real options analysis has advanced greatly during the last decade, specifically, through the development of so-called fuzzy pay-off techniques. The practicality and intuitiveness of these methods allow their straightforward integration into any spreadsheet or other evaluation systems for easy applications of real options thinking to real inve...
Article
Full-text available
Promotion and implementation of sustainable production and consumption practices have become a priority to obtain social, economic, and environmental benefits. Circular economy is based on an integrative approach which requires the analysis of all the relevant factors that may determine changes in the classical linear model of economic growth. From...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It is known that the evolution of digital technologies, together with a combination of other essential generic technologies, leads to a change in the way we design, produce and market related products and services, as well as in the way how value is generated from them. Digitalization and transformation of the business process to create remarkable...
Chapter
This paper addresses the digitalization of valuation techniques and learning them within the domain of strategic investments. Real options analysis has been proven more suitable to evaluate dynamic and flexible strategic opportunities than traditional NPV methods. The complexity and high uncertainty inherent in long-term strategic investment decisi...
Chapter
This paper addresses the progress of digital skills and technologies and their impact on well-being, income inequality and competitiveness of world countries. In future, the digital progress will contribute to an increase in technology, capital, and finally, production. The digital progress is unequally distributed among world countries. Even if ec...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we study the connections of categorical levels of Human Development Index (HDI), GDP per capita, World Happiness Index, the Gini indexes of Income and Wealth inequalities together with poverty rate for 98 world countries. By clustering analysis we identify four groups of countries with similar features. K-means clustering algorithm i...
Article
Full-text available
Competitive businesses need to study the behavior of their current and potential customer base. Relevant data on the behavior can be obtained from online, where the purchase decisions are increasingly made and often based on product reviews, ratings and recommendations available in social media networks. The original data consists of 23486 customer...
Article
Full-text available
The use of advanced ICT technologies and the support of new ways of thinking, acting and working in public administration, together with the increased provision of information and interactive services accessible through various channels, is the foundation of eGovernment. In recent years, there has been visible progress in all EU countries in terms...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The current Covid-19 pandemic is a disruptive event accompanied by a range of governmental responses and unforeseen impacts on society and businesses. We analyse and rank-order the effects of the national mitigation measures on the tourism sector of fifteen European countries and we build a composite Covid-Mitigatin Index, CMI, for country comparis...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper is concerned with a quantitative approach to the determinants of human development index, namely GDP per capita, Net Income GINI index, Wealth GINI index and poverty rate. For year 2018 and 98 world countries, we apply multiple discriminant analysis to predict four classes of human development index. The discriminant analysis achieved 83...
Article
Full-text available
The current covid-19 pandemic is a disruptive event on various levels. Disruptive event can be defined as a situation where an agent needs to redesign a strategy to overcome the obstacles arising from a fundamental change in an environment. The required change in procedures may open further options to develop best practices towards success. This ca...
Article
Full-text available
The importance of fuzzy real options analysis has been growing in the past ten years due to recent introductions of intuitive fuzzy real options models, which have been demonstrated to be both practical and easy to implement. This paper introduces the credibilistic pay-off model for triangular interval-valued fuzzy numbers, IVFNs, and compares it t...
Chapter
This paper introduces an extension to the center-of-gravity fuzzy pay-off method, CoG-FPOM by Borges and others from 2018 meant for the valuation of real options by using interval-valued fuzzy numbers. The CoG-FPOM was developed as a response and a remedy to the identified inconsistency with financial theory in the original fuzzy pay-off method for...
Conference Paper
This paper introduces an extension to the center-of-gravity fuzzy pay-off method, CoG-FPOM by Borges and others from 2018, meant for the valuation of real options by using interval-valued fuzzy numbers. The CoG-FPOM was developed as a response and a remedy to the identified inconsistency with financial theory in the original fuzzy pay-off method fo...
Conference Paper
The continuous increase of competition in international markets and the diversification of consumers' interests and expectations of products and services expressed on the social media networks have led us to investigate how the opinions of consumers can significantly influence the changes in the strategy of the organizations. In order to find out t...
Chapter
The continuous increase of competition in international markets and the diversification of consumers’ interests and expectations of products and services expressed on the social media networks have led us to investigate how the opinions of consumers can significantly influence the changes in the strategy of the organizations. In order to find out t...
Chapter
Full-text available
Most marketing specialists recognise that consumer behaviour can be explained by knowing the system of factors and variables that influence it. The purpose of our research is to get to know and analyse the behaviour of EU consumers within the online environment. In order to do so, we have selected a group of indicators and variables of consumer beh...
Conference Paper
This paper addresses the progress of digital skills and technologies and their impact on well-being, income inequality and competitiveness of world countries. In future, the digital progress will contribute to an increase in technology and capital, and finally, production. The digital progress is unequally distributed among world countries. Even if...
Presentation
ICBE conference paper "The digital effectiveness on economic inequality: a computational approach"
Data
5th Business & Entrepreneurial Economics Conference 2020 20/5 - 23/5 2020 Virtual Conference, EDITORS: Marko Kolaković, Ph.D., Tin Horvatinović & Ivan Turčić Publisher: Student Business Incubator at the University of Zagreb University of Zagreb - Croatia, Faculty of Economics and Business, ISSN: 2459-5225
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, the implications of economic freedoms and entrepreneurial conditions for the level of early-stage entrepreneurship are under study. The purpose is to rank-order microeconomic entrepreneurial conditions and (macro)economic freedoms under which companies are established, i.e., to find the most important factors affecting entrepreneuria...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to find the efficiency of computational methods, namely multinomial logistic regression (MLR) in predicting four classes of human development index (HDI) for 98 world countries for year 2018. In this paper we apply MLR to study the impact of GDP per capita, Net Income Gini index, Wealth Gini index and poverty rate on...
Conference Paper
This paper addresses digitalization of both the evaluation techniques, as well as, learning using them within the domain of strategic investment decision making. In dynamic and flexible strategic investments, real options analysis has been proven more suitable in evaluation of strategic opportunities than more traditional methods such as net presen...
Article
The paper is concerned with a saving model in which the interest rate risk is a fuzzy number. Our model can be seen as a possibilistic variant of a saving model due to Rothschild and Stiglitz, in which the interest rate risk is a random variable. A notion of possibilistic precautionary saving is defined as a measure of the optimal saving variation...
Conference Paper
The importance of fuzzy real options analysis has been growing in the past ten years due to recent introductions of intuitive fuzzy real options models, which have been demonstrated to be both practical and easy to implement. This paper introduces the credibilistic pay-off model for triangular interval-valued fuzzy numbers, IVFNs, and compares it t...
Article
Full-text available
This paper studies an optimal saving model in which risk is represented by a fuzzy number and the total utility function of the model is defined by an expected utility operator. This model generalizes some existing possibilistic saving models and from them, by a particularization, one can obtain new saving models. In the paper, sufficient condition...
Chapter
Full-text available
https://www.iiird.org/product/building-an-islamic-case-for-open-markets/
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Earnings-enhancing and cost-reduction synergies can be framed as real options in mergers and acquisitions. An acquirer may also acquire non-core businesses, which are evaluated as abandonment options. This paper presents how fuzzy and probabilistic real options models can be applied to M&A synergies in a comparative manner and builds a decision sup...
Article
Full-text available
A classical portfolio theory deals with finding the optimal proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a probabilistic risky asset. Formulating and solving the problem depend on how the risk is represented and how, combined with the utility function defines a notion of expected utility. In this paper the risk is a fuzzy...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper studies an optimal saving model in the possibilistic context defined by an expected utility operator. Among the results of the paper, we mention an approximation formula of the optimal saving level and a sufficient condition such that the presence of a possibilistic risk to lead to an increase in optimal saving.
Preprint
This paper studies an optimal saving model in the possibilistic context defined by an expected utility operator. Among the results of the paper, we mention an approximation formula of the optimal saving level and a sufficient condition such that the presence of a possibilistic risk to lead to an increase in optimal saving.
Preprint
Full-text available
In the paper there is studied an optimal saving model in which the interest-rate risk for saving is a fuzzy number. The total utility of consumption is defined by using a concept of possibilistic expected utility. A notion of possibilistic precautionary saving is introduced as a measure of the variation of optimal saving level when moving from a su...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
OECD countries represent advanced market economies. Well-being in OECD countries can be measured by Better Life Index (BLI). In this paper, firstly, two composite indices are built for BLI and Freedom Index (FI) based on principal component analyses of the 24 individual well-being variables and 10 economic freedom variables for 2013-2016. The purpo...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
There are various complex interdependences between economic and political factors and United Nation’s human development index, HDI. By using Bertelsmann Foundation’s data on 123 countries-in-transition with respect to their level of market economy, democracy and governance quality, the most important factors affecting HDI are under scrutiny. The pu...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Arab world is a diverse set of countries, when evaluated by their liberties. Some are economically highly liberal and rich in resources, while others have limited economic, as well as, political and civil liberties. Differences are significant both in their development and their current states of freedoms. In the analysis, firstly, principal compon...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Digitization is strategic investment for states, as well as, for enterprises, to boost the development by increasing efficiency and productivity and generating substantial savings. The aim of this research is to identify the digitalization clusters and to analyze the factors and impacts of digitalization within the European Union. Our research is b...
Preprint
Full-text available
A classical portfolio theory deals with finding the optimal proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a probabilistic risky asset. Formulating and solving the problem depend on how the risk is represented and how, combined with the utility function defines a notion of expected utility. In this paper the risk is a fuzzy...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper is studied the question of finding theoptimum proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a credibilistic risky asset. The credibilistic portfolioproblem is formulated using the notion of credibilistic expectedutility. Different approximate calculation formulas for the optimalallocation of the credibilistic...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It is a widely held idea that well-being goes hand in hand with economic and political liberties. This paper studies the relationship within the Islamic world. Data on 37 countries and their economic freedoms together with an index and sub-indices of economic freedom, GDP per capita, and its growth rate over the years 2008-2015. The total of 26 var...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper studies the relationship between twelve freedom indicators and GDP per capita of the twenty-eight European Union countries as of 2016. OECD’s GDP data for the EU countries is analysed together with the freedom indicators behind the Index of Economic Freedom. The data is studied, firstly, using hierarchical clustering method to get two la...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper studies the relationship of economic freedom variables, GDP per capita, and GDP growth. The OECD’s data for GDP of 36 countries are firstly matched with 10 freedom variables behind the Index of Economic Freedom. The normalized data is then clustered by self-organizing maps to get four clusters of countries. The constructed clusters are i...
Article
Full-text available
Possibility risk theory starts from the hypothesis that this is described by a fuzzy number and not by a random variable, as in the traditional probabilistic modeling. This paper is an attempt of possibilistic approach to risk management problem. In particular, the models proposed in this paper can be connected by the way the possibilistic risk inf...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Possibility risk theory starts from the hypothesis that this is described by a fuzzy number and not by a random variable, as in the traditional probabilistic modeling. This paper is an attempt of possibilistic approach to risk management problem. In particular, the models proposed in this paper can be connected by the way the possibilistic risk inf...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The models of this paper refer to mixed risk situations: one parameter is a fuzzy number, and the other is a random variable. Three notions of mixed expected utility are proposed as a mathematical basis of these models. The results of the paper describe the risk aversion of an agent in front of a risk situation with mixed parameters.
Conference Paper
Global inequality is inherently a hot topic of economic and political debates. Attitudes towards wealth and income inequalities depend radically on the point of view: some think that some intervention by a state or supra-national actors is required; others think that regulation and lack of free trade have caused the inequalities, while the inequali...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper studies mixed models of saving with three types of risks: labor income risk, interest rate risk, and background risk. Each risk can be probabilistically modeled by a random variable or possibilistically modeled by a fuzzy number. For each model a notion of precautionary saving is defined in order to measure the effect that various types...
Article
Risk aversion and prudence are well-studied topics in probabilistic risk theory. This paper uses credibility theory of B. Liu and Y. Liu to approach these closely related concepts. The risk situations are modelled by fuzzy variables and the indicators of risk aversion and prudence are defined in the context of credibilistic expected utility theory....
Article
Full-text available
The models of this paper refer to mixed risk situations: one parameter is a fuzzy number and the other is a random variable. Three notions of mixed expected utility are proposed as a mathematical basis of these models. The results of the paper describe risk aversion and prudence of an agent in front of a risk situation with mixed parameters and the...