James O Lloyd-Smith

University of California, Los Angeles | UCLA · Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

H5N1 influenza outbreaks in dairy cows necessitate studying potential transmission routes among livestock and to humans. We measured the stability of infectious H5N1 influenza virus in raw milk, wastewater, and on contaminated surfaces. We found relatively slow decay in milk, indicating that contaminated milk and fomites pose plausible transmission...

Influenza A viruses (IAV) have caused more documented global pandemics in human history than any other pathogen1,2. High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses belonging to the H5N1 subtype are a leading pandemic risk. Two decades after H5N1 "bird flu" became established in poultry in Southeast Asia, its descendants have resurged3, setting of...

Pathogen transmission studies require sample collection over extended periods, which can be challenging and costly, especially in the case of wildlife. A useful strategy can be to collect pooled samples, but this presents challenges when the goal is to estimate prevalence. This is because pooling can introduce a dilution effect where pathogen conce...

In the centuries following Christopher Columbus’s 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions o...

Background Pathogenic Leptospira species are globally important zoonotic pathogens capable of infecting a wide range of host species. In marine mammals, reports of Leptospira have predominantly been in pinnipeds, with isolated reports of infections in cetaceans. Case presentation On 28 June 2021, a 150.5 cm long female, short-beaked common dolphin...

Researchers and clinicians often rely on molecular assays like PCR to identify and monitor viral infections, instead of the resource-prohibitive gold standard of viral culture. However, it remains unclear when (if ever) PCR measurements of viral load are reliable indicators of replicating or infectious virus. The recent popularity of PCR protocols...

Background Serology (the detection of antibodies formed by the host against an infecting pathogen) is frequently used to assess current infections and past exposure to specific pathogens. However, the presence of cross-reactivity among host antibodies in serological data makes it challenging to interpret the patterns and draw reliable conclusions a...

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne v...

BACKGROUND Pathogenic Leptospira species are globally important zoonotic pathogens capable of infecting a wide range of host species. In marine mammals, reports of Leptospira have predominantly been in pinnipeds, with isolated reports of infections in cetaceans. CASE PRESENTATION On 28 June 2021, a 150.5 cm long female, short-beaked common dolphin...

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne v...

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne v...

Pathogen transmission studies require sample collection over extended periods, which can be challenging and costly, especially in the case of wildlife. A useful strategy can be to collect pooled samples, but this presents challenges when the goal is to estimate infection prevalence dynamics. In particular, pooling typically results in a dilution ef...

An outbreak of human mpox infection in nonendemic countries appears to have been driven largely by transmission through body fluids or skin-to-skin contact during sexual activity. We evaluated the stability of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in different environments and specific body fluids and tested the effectiveness of decontamination methodologies. MPX...

Prediction and management of zoonotic pathogen spillover requires an understanding of infection dynamics within reservoir host populations. Transmission risk is often assessed using prevalence of infected hosts, with infection status based on the presence of genomic material. However, detection of viral genomic material alone does not necessarily i...

Leptospirosis, the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk factors...

1. Studies of infectious disease ecology would benefit greatly from knowing when individuals were infected, but estimating this time of infection can be challenging, especially in wildlife. Time of infection can be estimated from various types of data, with antibody-level data being one of the most promising sources of information. The use of antib...

Respiratory viruses can be transmitted by multiple modes, including contaminated surfaces, commonly referred to as fomites. Efficient fomite transmission requires that a virus remain infectious on a given surface material over a wide range of environmental conditions, including different relative humidities. Prior work examining the stability of in...

Researchers and clinicians often rely on molecular assays like PCR to identify and monitor viral infections instead of the resource-prohibitive gold standard of viral culture. However, it remains unclear when (if ever) PCR measurements of viral load are reliable indicators of replicating or infectious virus. Here, we compare total RNA, subgenomic R...

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne v...

Importance Since May 2022, human monkeypox (mpox) infections have spread rapidly outside endemic countries. On July 23, 2023, WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of international Concern because of the unprecedented global spread of mpox. Whereas there is an incomplete understanding of transmission routes, the spread of monkeypox virus (MPXV) th...

Respiratory viruses can transmit by multiple modes, including contaminated surfaces, commonly referred to as fomites. Efficient fomite transmission requires that a virus remain infectious on a given surface material over a wide range of environmental conditions, including different relative humidities. Prior work examining the stability of influenz...

Leptospirosis is the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, yet it is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk...

SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted principally via air; contact and fomite transmission may also occur. Variants-of-concern (VOCs) are more transmissible than ancestral SARS-CoV-2. We find that early VOCs show greater aerosol and surface stability than the early WA1 strain, but Delta and Omicron do not. Stability changes do not explain increased transmissib...

Background More than four decades after the eradication of smallpox, the ongoing 2022 monkeypox outbreak and increasing transmission events of other orthopoxviruses necessitate a greater understanding of the global distribution of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses. We aimed to characterise the current global landscape of smallpox vaccination histor...

----- bioRxiv: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.03.510698v1 ----- Studies of infectious disease ecology often rely heavily on knowing when individuals were infected, but estimating this time of infection can be challenging, especially in wildlife. Time of infection can be estimated from various types of data, with antibody level dat...

The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introd...

Background: Despite significant advances in statistical approaches and data collection for analyzing wildlife movements over the last 50 years, there are limited analytical frameworks to be applied when spatial data are collected for purposes other than analyzing movement. Data collected for other purposes (e.g., sporadic captures or survival check...

Infectious zoonotic diseases are a threat to wildlife conservation and global health. They are especially a concern for wild apes, which are vulnerable to many human infectious diseases. As ecotourism, deforestation, and great ape field research increase, the threat of human-sourced infections to wild populations becomes more substantial and could...

Decontamination helps limit environmental transmission of infectious agents. It is required for the safe re-use of contaminated medical, laboratory and personal protective equipment, and for the safe handling of biological samples. Heat treatment is a common decontamination method, notably used for viruses. We show that for liquid specimens (here,...

Syncytium formation, i.e., cell–cell fusion resulting in the formation of multinucleated cells, is a hallmark of infection by paramyxoviruses and other pathogenic viruses. This natural mechanism has historically been a diagnostic marker for paramyxovirus infection in vivo and is now widely used for the study of virus-induced membrane fusion in vitr...

Cross-species transmission of pathogens is intimately linked to human and environmental health. With limited healthcare and challenging living conditions, people living in poverty may be particularly susceptible to endemic and emerging diseases. Similarly, wildlife is impacted by human influences, including pathogen sharing, especially for species...

Syncytium formation, i.e., cell-cell fusion resulting in the formation of multinucleated cells, is a hallmark of infection by paramyxoviruses and other important viruses. This natural mechanism has historically been a diagnostic marker for paramyxovirus infection in vivo and is now widely studied for virus-induced membrane fusion in vitro. However,...

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within...

RNA viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), influenza virus, and SARS-CoV-2, are notorious for their ability to evolve rapidly under selection in novel environments. It is known that the high mutation rate of RNA viruses can generate huge genetic diversity to facilitate viral adaptation. However, less attention has been paid to the underlying fit...

The spirochete bacterium Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona is enzootic to California sea lions (CSL; Zalophus californianus) and causes periodic epizootics. Leptospirosis in CSL is associated with a high fatality rate in rehabilitation. Evidence-based tools for estimating prognosis and guiding early euthanasia of animals with a low probability...

Ambient temperature and humidity strongly affect inactivation rates of enveloped viruses, but a mechanistic, quantitative theory of these effects has been elusive. We measure the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on an inert surface at nine temperature and humidity conditions and develop a mechanistic model to explain and predict how temperature and humidity...

Ecological and evolutionary processes govern the fitness, propagation, and interactions of organisms through space and time, and viruses are no exception. While COVID-19 research has primarily emphasized virological, clinical, and epidemiological perspectives, crucial aspects of the pandemic are fundamentally ecological or evolutionary. Here, we hi...

Drug-resistant mutations often have deleterious impacts on replication fitness, posing a fitness cost that can only be overcome by compensatory mutations. However, the role of fitness cost in the evolution of drug resistance has often been overlooked in clinical studies or in vitro selection experiments, as these observations only capture the outco...

Since emerging in late 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic, and it may become an endemic human pathogen. Understanding the impact of environmental conditions on SARS-CoV-2 viability and its transmission potential is crucial to anticipating epidemic dynamics and designing mitigation strategies. Ambient temperature and humidity are known to...

Background For many emerging or re-emerging pathogens, cases in humans arise from a mixture of introductions (via zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs or geographic spillover from endemic regions) and secondary human-to-human transmission. Interventions aiming to reduce incidence of these infections can be focused on preventing spillover or re...

https://elifesciences.org/articles/60122 ---------------------------------------------------- Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference...

Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analysis leverages 3214 datapoints from 516 individuals...

Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analysis leverages 3214 datapoints from 516 individuals...

Confronted with the challenge of understanding population-level processes, disease ecologists and epidemiologists often simplify quantitative data into distinct physiological states (e.g. susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered). However, data defining these states often fall along a spectrum rather than into clear categories. Hence, the host-pat...

• Obtaining accurate estimates of disease prevalence is crucial for the monitoring and management of wildlife populations but can be difficult if different diagnostic tests yield conflicting results and if the accuracy of each diagnostic test is unknown. Bayesian latent class analysis (BLCA) modeling offers a potential solution, providing estimates...

We found that environmental conditions affect the stability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in nasal mucus and sputum. The virus is more stable at low-temperature and low-humidity conditions, whereas warmer temperature and higher humidity shortened half-life. Although infectious virus was undetectable after 48 hours, viral RNA re...

The coronavirus pandemic has created worldwide shortages of N95 respirators. We analyzed 4 decontamination methods for effectiveness in deactivating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and effect on respirator function. Our results indicate that N95 respirators can be decontaminated and reused, but the integrity of respirator fit...

Our ability to understand and mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 depends largely on antibody and viral RNA data that provide information about past exposure and shedding. Five months into the outbreak there is an impressive number of studies reporting antibody kinetics and RNA shedding dynamics, but extensive variation in detection assays, study gro...

Our ability to understand and mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 depends largely on antibody and viral RNA data that provide information about past exposure and shedding. Five months into the outbreak there is an impressive number of studies reporting antibody kinetics and RNA shedding dynamics, but extensive variation in detection assays, study gro...

A bstract When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competit...

The unprecedented pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has created worldwide shortages of personal protective equipment, in particular respiratory protection such as N95 respirators. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is frequently occurring in hospital settings, with numerous reported cases of nosocomial transmission highlighting the vulnerability of healthcare workers. I...

Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al....

Traveller screening is being used to limit further global spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) following its recent emergence. Here, we analyze the expected impact of different travel screening programs given remaining uncertainty around the values of key nCoV life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we esti...

Across decades of co-circulation in humans, influenza A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 have caused seasonal epidemics characterized by different age distributions of cases and mortality. H3N2 causes the majority of severe, clinically attended cases in high-risk elderly cohorts, and the majority of overall deaths, whereas H1N1 causes fewer deaths overall, a...

Drug-resistant mutations often have deleterious impacts on replication fitness, posing a fitness cost that can only be overcome by compensatory mutations. However, the role of fitness cost in the evolution of drug resistance has often been overlooked in clinical studies or in vitro selection experiments, as these observations only capture the outco...

Confronted with the challenge of understanding population-level processes, disease ecologists and epidemiologists often simplify quantitative data into distinct physiological states (e.g. susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered). However, data defining these states often fall along a spectrum rather than into clear categories. Hence, the host-pat...

Reassortment is an evolutionary mechanism by which influenza A viruses (IAV) generate genetic novelty. Reassortment is an important driver of host jumps and is widespread according to retrospective surveillance studies. However, predicting the epidemiological risk of reassortant emergence in novel hosts from surveillance data remains challenging. I...

Pathogen spillover between different host species is the trigger for many infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events, and ecosystem boundary areas have been suggested as spatial hotspots of spillover. This hypothesis is largely based on suspected higher rates of zoonotic disease spillover and emergence in fragmented landscapes and other area...

Leptospirosis is a widespread and potentially life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by spirochaetes of the genus Leptospira . Humans become infected primarily via contact with environmental reservoirs contaminated by the urine of shedding mammalian hosts. Populations in high transmission settings, such as urban slums and subsistence farming comm...

The critical step in the emergence of a new epidemic or pandemic viral pathogen occurs after it infects the initial spillover host and then is successfully transmitted onwards, causing an outbreak chain of transmission within that new host population. Crossing these choke points sets a pathogen on the pathway to epidemic emergence. While many virus...

Across decades of co-circulation in humans, influenza A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 have caused seasonal epidemics characterized by different age distributions of infection and mortality. H3N2 causes the majority of cases in high-risk elderly cohorts, and the majority of overall deaths, whereas H1N1 causes incidence shifted towards young and middle-aged...