
James J. KungMing Chuan University · Department of International Business
James J. Kung
PhD
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21
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Publications (21)
Many market technicians claim that technical rules are effective more in bear markets than in bull markets. This study investigates how effective they are in the stock markets of Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. We perform three tasks. First, we examine the transmission mechanism of stock market mov...
Previous options studies typically assume that the dynamics of the underlying asset price follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) when pricing options on stocks, stock indices, currencies or futures. However, there is mounting empirical evidence that the volatility of asset price or return is far from constant. This article, in contrast to studies...
Previous empirical studies have, in general, found that a random walk provides an appropriate description of the exchange rate dynamics. What remains at issue is how the error term of the random walk should be parameterised. This study takes an entirely different approach to examining the exchange rate dynamics. Specifically, we employ the bootstra...
This study develops an optimal portfolio decision rule under nonparametric characterization of the interest rate dynamics. To proceed, we first derive an optimal decision rule based on the long rate and the spread (where
$\mathrm{spread} = \mathrm{long\ rate} - \mathrm{short\ rate}$
); then we employ nonparametric kernel regression to estimate, b...
The payoff distribution pricing model (PDPM) of Dybvig [13] is a powerful tool for measuring the inefficiency of any investment strategy in a multiperiod setting. In this study, we extend the PDPM in three major ways. Firstly, we develop an operational formula for computing the inefficiency amount of a strategy. Secondly, we use six different inves...
This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX) when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the t...
This study intends to find out whether or not the Nikkei 225 evolves over time in accordance with the following four widely used processes for determining stock prices: random walk with a drift, AR(1), GARCH(1,1), and GARCH(1,1)-M. Given the fact that, in actuality, we have but one sample of time series data, the motivation of this study is to make...
This study intends to find out whether or not the Nikkei 225 evolves over time in accordance with the following four widely used processes for determining stock prices: random walk with a drift, AR(1), GARCH(1,1), and GARCH(1,1)-M. Given the fact that, in actuality, we have but one sample of time series data, the motivation of this study is to make...
The banking sector traditionally dominated Indonesia's financial system, and until the 1990s the stock market remained of little significance. Re-opened in 1977 after two decades of inactivity, the stock exchange made little contribution to Indonesia's development until a series of reform and deregulation measures were implemented from December 198...
Previous option pricing research typically assumes that the risk-free rate or the short rate is constant during the life of the option. In this study, we incorporate the stochastic nature of the short rate in our option valuation model and derive explicit formulas for European call and put options on a stock when the short rate follows the Merton m...
This study uses two popular technical trading rules to assess whether the gradual liberalization of Taiwan's securities markets has improved the efficiency of its stock market. The results show that the two rules have considerable predictive power for 1983–1990, they become less predictive for 1991–1997, and they cannot predict the market for 1998–...
In mean–variance (M–V) analysis, an investor with a holding period [0,T] operates in a two-dimensional space—one is the mean and the other is the variance. At time 0, he/she evaluates alternative portfolios based on their means and variances, and holds a combination of the market portfolio (e.g., an index fund) and the risk-free asset to maximize h...
Fisher separation theorem [T.E. Copeland, J.F. Weston, K. Shastri, Financial Theory and Corporate Policy, fourth ed., Addison Wesley, New York, 2005] states that, in a perfect and complete capital market, the investment decisions of a firm are to maximize the wealth of its current shareholders regardless of their preferences. In this study, we inte...
In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, a series of reform and liberalization measures have been implemented in Singapore to upgrade its financial markets. This study investigates whether these measures have led to less profitability for those investors who employ technical rules for trading stocks. Our results show that the three trading r...
This study makes use of stochastic dynamic programming to set up a multi-period asset allocation model and derives an analytic formula for the optimal proportions invested in short and long bonds. Then maximum likelihood method is employed to estimate the relevant parameters. Finally, we implement the model through backward recursion algorithm to f...
The last 30 years have witnessed an enormous growth in fixed-income markets. How long-term fixed-income strategies should be implemented for the welfare of investors has become a major concern of bond managers. This study makes use of stochastic optimal control to formulate a multi-period portfolio selection model and implements it using backward r...
One theoretical implication of cointegration, according to Granger (1986), is that asset prices in an efficient market cannot be cointegrated. Using price data on US Treasury STRIPS with maturities from 2/15/1997 to 8/15/2015, it is found that a set of three STRIPS series is often cointegrated. In addition, by setting up a costless hedge portfolio...