James Hansen

• PhD University of Washington
• Professor at Brigham Young University

The ability to correctly interpret a prediction model’s output is critically important in many problem spheres. Accurate interpretation generates user trust in the model, provides insight into how a model may be improved, and supports understanding of the process being modeled. Absence of this capability has constrained algorithmic trading from mak...

Tree ensemble machine learning models offer particular promise for medical applications because of their ability to handle both continuous and categorical data, their faculty for modeling nonlinear relationships, and ease with which hyperparameters can be adapted to improve performance. Modern methods include Random Forests, XGBoost and LightGBM, w...

Use of the Internet for electronic business has the potential to revolutionize the way many businesses are conducted. Yet, several businesses have fallen victim to problems in information systems that facilitate e-Business. These problems are characterized by uncertainties due to system complexity, rapid development, interconnectivity, and a lack o...

Financial fraud can have serious ramifications for the long-term sustainability of an organization, as well as adverse effects on its employees and investors, and on the economy as a whole. Several of the largest bankruptcies in U.S. history involved firms that engaged in major fraud. Accordingly, there has been considerable emphasis on the develop...

Discovery of financial fraud has profound social consequences. Loss of stockholder value, bankruptcy, and loss of confidence in the professional audit firms have resulted from failure to detect financial fraud. Previous studies that have attempted to discover fraud patterns from publicly available information have achieved only moderate levels of s...

Assumptions about the distributions of domain variables are important for much of statistical learning, including both regression and classification problems. However, it is important that the assumed models are consistent with the stylized facts. For example selecting a normal distribution permits modeling two data characteristics—the mean and the...

In The extensive growth of computing networks and tools and tricks for intruding into and attacking networks has underscored the importance of intrusion detection in network security. Yet, contemporary intrusion detection systems (IDS) are limiting in that they typically employ a misuse detection strategy, with searches for patterns of program or u...

The uncertainties of planning engendered by nondeterminism and partial observability have led to a melding of model checking and artificial intelligence. The result is planning by model checking. As planning by model checking checks sets of states and sets of transitions at once, rather than single states, the method remains robust and viable in do...

This paper identifies and defines standards required for successful e-commerce (EC) platforms. It presents an ontology of standards and applications that can be used to evaluate any EC platform. Current platforms are limited in usefulness and development economy by lack of standards. We describe how the development and use of such standards could h...

Because malicious intrusions into critical information infrastructures are essential to the success of cyberterrorists, effective intrusion detection is also essential for defending such infrastructures. Cyberterrorism thrives on the development of new technologies; and, in response, intrusion detection methods must be robust and adaptive, as well...

Machine learning methods are currently the object of considerable study by the artificial intelligence community. Research on machine learning carries implications for decision making in that it seeks computational methods that mimic input-output behaviors found in classes of decision-making examples. At the same time, research in statistics and ec...

This paper proposes an adaptive learning approach that yields decision models that can be applied by a transactions agent. This model can learn effectively with a variety of data distributions. This research uses the Semantic Web as a data access approach. The Semantic Web is a method that sellers can use to publish semantically meaningful informa...

The importance of predicting future values of a time-series transcends a range of disciplines. Economic and business time-series are typically characterized by trend, cycle, seasonal, and random components. Powerful methods have been developed to capture these components by specifying and estimating statistical models. These methods include exponen...

Model checking is an evolving technology for effective and efficient evaluation of e-business protocols. The technology is based on automated techniques such as simulation or theorem proving. E-business managers, developers, and auditors require tools to assure users that e-business systems are secure and reliable. Money atomicity, goods atomicity,...

Electronic commerce can be defined as the conduct of commerce in goods and services, with the assistance of telecommunications and telecommunications-based tools. The economic growth potential of e-commerce is extraordinary - but so are the challenges that lie on the path toward success. One of the more pressing challenges is how to ensure the inte...

This paper provides an accessible exposition of recently developed partially adaptive estimation methods and their application. These methods are robust to thick-tailed or asymmetric error distributions and should be of interest to researchers and practitioners in data mining, agent learning, and mathematical modeling in a wide range of disciplines...

We have examined standards required for successful e-commerce (EC) architectures and evaluated the strengths and limitations of current systems that have been developed to support EC. We find that there is an unfilled need for systems that can reliably locate buyers and sellers in electronic marketplaces and also facilitate automated transactions....

Model checking is a promising technique for the verification of complex software systems. As the use of the Internet for conducting e-business extends the reach of many organizations, well-designed software becomes the foundation of reliable implementation of e-business processes. These distributed, electronic methods of conducting transactions pla...

Model checking is a promising technique for the verification of complex software systems. As the use of the Internet for conduct business (e-business) extends the reach of many businesses, well-designed software becomes the foundation of reliable implementation of e-business processes. These distributed, electronic methods of conducting transaction...

Model checking offers a methodology for determining whether a model satisfies a list of correctness requirements. We propose a theory of dependability auditing with model checking based on four principles: (1) The modeling process should be partitioned into computational components and behavioral components as an aid to system understanding; (2) Ab...

Of primary importance to the efficient operation and profitability of an airline is adherence to its flight schedule. This paper examines that segment of air traffic control, termed traffic management adviser (TMA), which is charged with the complex task of scheduling arriving aircraft to available runways in a manner that minimizes delays and sati...

This paper identifies and defines standards required for successful eCommerce (EC) architectures. It evaluates the strengths and limitations of current and past systems that have been developed to support EC in relation to these standards. We conclude that there remains an unfilled need for systems that can reliably locate buyers and sellers in ele...

Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences. Statistical models have sound theoretical bases and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains. More recently, machine-learning models such as neural networks have been suggested as offering potential for time-series...

As the Internet grows, it is becoming less feasible for customers and merchants to manually visit each web site, analyze the information there, and make sound business decisions regarding the trading of goods or services. To cope with this evolution, software agents can be designed that are capable of automating the more routine, tedious, and time-...

While successful applications have been reported using standard GP crossover, limitations of this approach have been identified by several investigators. Among the most compelling alternatives to standard GP crossover are those that use some form of homologous crossover, where code segments that are exchanged are structurally or syntactically align...

Operations and other business decisions often depend on accurate time-series forecasts. These time series usually consist of trend-cycle, seasonal, and irregular components. Existing methodologies attempt to first identify and then extrapolate these components to produce forecasts. The proposed process partners this decomposition procedure with neu...

This paper describes a flexible model for predictive data mining, EGB2, which optimizes over a parameter space to fit data to a family of models based on maximum-likelihood criteria. It is also shown how EGB2 can integrate asymmetric costs of Type I and Type II errors, thereby minimizing expected misclassification costs. Importantly, it has been sh...

Data mining is the search for valuable information in large volumes of data. Finding patterns in time series databases is important to a variety of applications, including stock market trading and budget forecasting. This paper reports on an extension of neural network methods for planning and budgeting in the State of Utah. In particular, historic...

When a corporation begins exchanging business transactions over the Internet, the Internet becomes part of the corporate computer network. With access now available not only to the employees, but potentially to anyone else on the Internet, the scope of security concerns expands significantly. A variety of useful security software is available for c...

While some efforts have been made to formalize the choice of parameters for artificial neural networks (multi-level perceptrons) using the backpropagation (BP) algorithm, studies reported in the literature to date appear to be dominated by use of heuristic methods of design. The objective of this paper is to test the comparative performance of neur...

The study of qualitative-response models has received considerable attention in the decision sciences, as well as the econometric literature. Applications of these models have included studies of labour force participation, occupational choice, transportation choice, purchase of consumer durables, analysis of voting behaviour, and many others. As r...

Neural networks whose architecture is determined by genetic algorithms outperform autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models in six different time series examples. Refinements to the autoregressive integrated moving average model improve forecasting performance over standard ordinary least squares estimation by 8% to 13%. In contra...

The design of neural network models involves numerous complexities, including the determination of input vectors, choosing the number of hidden layers and their computational units, and specifying activation functions for the latter. The combinatoric possibilities are daunting, yet experience has yielded informal guidelines that can be useful. Alte...

Ever since the initial planning for the 1997 Utah legislative session, neural-network forecasting techniques have provided valuable insights for analysts forecasting tax revenues. These revenue estimates are critically important since agency budgets, support for education, and improvements to infrastructure all depend on their accuracy. Underforeca...

Cooperative distributed problem-solving systems (CDPS) offer computer methods for coordinating group expertise in the solving of problems. Much of the research to the present has been empirical testing of informal methods for implementation. There is a need for more formal methods to guide this process. Object-oriented methods provide a natural mea...

Interorganizational information systems (IOS) change the ways in which firms do business and provide the foundation for timely information sharing among trading partners. Although the use of IOSs is gaining widespread practical application, there has been no parallel theo-retical development to aid in evaluating IOS alternatives. This paper develop...

This paper reports a study unifying optimization by genetic algorithm with a generalized regression neural network. Experiments compare hill-climbing optimization with that of a genetic algorithm, both in conjunction with a generalized regression neural network. Controlled data with nine independent variables are used in combination with conjunctiv...

A major complexity in the development of many computerized information systems is the lack of an integrated framework and analysis structure to consolidate disparate types of information. Successful information system development in complex environments requires an approach that supports development of systems across all information areas and uses...

Management fraud has become a topic of increasing interest to the public accounting profession. Prior research indicates that management fraud is seldom experienced by audiGtors. As a result, it is doubtful that auditors have a well-developed cognitive model for making fraud risk assessments as part of the audit planning process. Early research stu...

Cooperative distributed knowledge-base systems—sometime termed distributed artificial Intelligence (DAI)—offer computer methods for coordinating group expertise in the solving of problems. Much of the research to the present has been empirical testing of informal methods. There is a need for more formal methods to guide the design and development o...

A bstract Decision‐support systems can be improved by enabling them to use past decisions to assist in making present ones. Reasoning from relevant past cases is appealing because it corresponds to some of the processes an expert uses to solve problems quickly and accurately. All this depends on an effective method of organizing cases for retrieval...

Case-based reasoning is thought to aid decision making because it mimics the way in which humans analyze problems. Effective recall of case situations that are similar to a current situation is a key component of this type of decision support. This paper shows how the concept of rank can be used to create compact indexing trees for recall of simila...

Many unstructured decision-making problems are too complex to be solved by existing analytical methods. Organizations commonly rely on human expertise to solve such problems. Human expertise is presumed to utilize specialized knowledge structures, and recent research in artificial intelligence has sought to devise machine-learning procedures that c...

Modern-day auditing represents a decision environment that is both complex and characterized by those elements of imprecise measurability addressed by fuzzy set theory. The use of fuzzy set concepts to address this problem was originally attempted by Cooley and Hicks (1983). They derived a measure of reliability, but did not place the measure in a...

The domains of accounting, tax, and audit services have become much more complex during recent years. This development has generated a need for leveraging professional expertise and judgment processes. In an attempt to meet this need, there are a number of projects in the Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University (BYU) that apply arti...

This paper reports on the continued evaluation of EDP-XPERT, and expert system for assisting Computer Audit Specialists (CASs) in evaluating the reliability of EDP controls in advanced computer environments. The current evaluation of the system involved four phases. First, Senior CASs used the system on two case studies. Second, it was then used by...

The purpose of this paper is to describe the results of an effort to utilize case-based reasoning (CBR) to model a specific audit judgment task. To date, most efforts to develop computational models of audit judgment have used strictly rule-based representation methods. Some researchers have recently adopted more robust structures to model the audi...

With all the power of von Neumann serial computation, emulation of certain tasks performed routinely by humans has been painfully slow. Perhaps this is because there is evidence that human decision making results from massively parallel computation in the brain. This evidence has generated interest in constructing models of parallel computation whi...

Complexity theory provides a powerful methodology for evaluating the time and space requirements of algorithms. It would be helpful if a similar theory could be developed to analyze the level of difficulty presented to the user by database query languages. The relational database languages are of particular interest. Their power and flexibility hav...

The authors evaluate research and development in the design of expert systems for the audit domain, providing an overview of the domain of expert judgment involved in the audit process. A framework used to present and analyze work to date and to guide future efforts is constructed. Methods of knowledge acquisition being used to develop audit applic...

A number of attempts have been made to quantify the problem of control evaluation in computer-based information systems. This problem is particularly difficult in electronic data interchange systems where controls are primarily in the software, and undetected errors can quickly lead to severe consequences. An integer programming formulation provide...

A dynamic multicountry, multicommodity model is used to evaluate the impact of a moderate General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) agreement. The terms of this agreement are as follows. 1) Export subsidy quantities (using annual and price wedges) are reduced by 50 percent from the 1986-88 average by 1996. 2) Import restrictions are tariffed an...

To identify the winners and the losers from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in agriculture, it is necessary to know which countries will be required to reduce which subsidies by what amounts. Rules that seem fair may actually impose very different future obligations on the parties to the negotiations. The base period from which re...

Over a decade ago, Leonard Kleinrock developed a model for selecting best–performance scheduling algorithms for computer systems. The M/G/I queuing system used by Kleinrock requires that an estimate of the service–time probability distribution function (p.d.f.) be made in order to derive results. While methods of fitting service–time data to p.d.f....

Electronic data interchange (EDI) is the movement of information electronically between a buyer and seller for purposes of facilitating a business transaction. EDI represents a powerful application of computer-communications technology. Its value includes such benefits as reduced paperwork, elimination of data entry overheads, improved accuracy, ti...

With rapidly growing interest in the development of knowledge-based computer consulting systems for various problem domains, the difficulties associated with knowledge acquisition have special importance. This paper reports on the results of experiments designed to assess the effectiveness of an inductive algorithm in discovering predictive knowled...

The results of two experiments are reviewed in which users' performance in developing query solutions using relational algebra, relational tuple calculus, and relational domain calculus was measured. Sample query solutions in domain and tuple calculus are analysed and compared for complexity. In terms of human factors, tuple calculus is apparently...

The performance of a single group of subjects on four queries of varying degrees of difficulty, written in both relational algebra and in relational calculus, is measured. The experiment indicates a definite superiority of algebra over calculus in the formulation of complex queries. Varying approaches to query formulation in the two languages are d...

The complexity of modern computer auditing requires an effective decision support system that should (1) be highly flexible, (2) have the capability for incorporating important qualitative components, (3) be able to utilize a network of decision rules in describing a complex system of internal controls, and (4) be able to converse with the auditor...

Distributed processing in computer networks is a powerful development emanating from technological advances in computer science and communications research. An important unresolved problem in distributed processing is how to optimally allocate jobs among interconnected processors. We develop a dynamic programming algorithm which incorporates many o...

The integration and coupling that result from networking, database systems, and real-time applications are serving to increase concern about security and control in modem computing environments. The establishment and effective monitoring of controls in such settings is essential to guarantee data integrity and to prevent undesired intrusion. It is...

Une approche de gestion de base de donnees relationnelle prevoit le fondement pour un aide a la decision basee sur ordinateur qui aidera l'auditeur EDP a s'occuper de la complexite technologique des systemes actuels

An aspect of internal control which troubles executives is the increasing dependence of companies on computers for financial reporting and operational effectiveness. Given the increasing number of computer applications, such as database systems, distributed networks, and on-line processing, there is a need for tools that assist in monitoring contro...

Applications of distributed processing networks are proliferating rapidly. It is expected that by the year 2000, distributed networks will be one of the most significant developments to evolve from the computer revolution. Distributed networks are unique in that they bring together concepts of communication, engineering, and computing. From an audi...

The aspects of internal control which troubles executives most is the increasing dependence of their organizations on computers for financial reporting and operational effectiveness. Given the growing number of computer applications, particularly those of a more complex nature—exemplified by data base management systems, distributed networks, and o...

The complexities of computer auditing have created a need for decision support for the EDP auditor. Traditional statistical techniques have proven valuable; however, there are important qualitative components which must be incorporated in the analysis. More importantly, there is a need for decision aids which not only produce analysis and probabili...

Analysts from many disciplines are actively involved in the construction of models which will enable better understanding of system structure, improve systems design, and aid in planning and decision making. One important obstacle to achieving these ends is the frequent necessity to involve resource people in the modelling process. Such persons are...

This paper demonstrates concepts, collectively termed interpretive structural modeling, which can aid in the development of decision-support systems through: (1) creating a structure which helps identify the presence or absence of information necessary for decision-making; (2) providing a convenient framework for evaluating control subsystems; (3)...

Management scientists studying the decision-making process are in agreement that information and decision making are closely tied together. Unfortunately, improvements in information technology have not included methodologies which capture this interdependence. This paper is concerned with treating this interdependence in one aspect of systems desi...

Information systems have become increasingly complex over recent years, underscoring the challenge of designing systems which will provide the different functions in an organization with the information necessary for effective decision-making. With rapidly developing computer technology, it is natural that information systems evolve in a manner whi...

Management scientists studying the decision-making process are in agreement that information and decision making are closely tied together. Unfortunately, improvements in information technology have not included methodologies which capture this interdependence. This paper is concerned with treating this interdependence in an aspect of systems desig...

Despite the rapid growth in the use of computers in organizations, few of the resulting systems have had a significant impact on the way in which management makes decisions. Frameworks are needed which aid in understanding the structure of management information systems, toward providing focus and improving the effectiveness of systems efforts.This...

Possibly the most revolutionary development to impact upon decisionmaking has been the electronic computer. Its capability to process large volumes of data rapidly, to make complex computations in fractions of seconds, and to provide outputs in a variety of formats has markedly expanded the boundaries of decisionmaking. Notwithstanding such progres...

Information systems have become increasingly complex over recent years, underscoring the challenge of designing systems which will provide the different functions in an organization with the information necessary for effective decision-making. With rapidly developing computer technology, it is natural that information systems evolve in a manner whi...

In the research and development environment, the classical decision model, even though modified to include multiple objectives or attributes, fails in the following ways. 1) It uses linear attribute weighting functions. 2) It does not incorporate uncertainty distributions in estimates of total value and attribute attainment. 3) It does not facilita...

Health care planners are continually challenged by the difficulty of ordering and understanding of the complexities of health care delivery systems. Methods are needed which can aid in extending thought processes into multi-dimensional solution space and rationalizing the thinking of various health care interests. This paper describes a useful appr...

In designing programs to improve regional health care, it is often necessary to synthesize hierarchies. Notwithstanding the fact that the health care milieu is highly complex, this process is frequently dealt with intuitively resulting in fragmented and redundant programs. It is proposed that formal procedures which relieve the individual of much o...

This paper identifies and defines standards required for successful eCommerce (EC) architectures. It evaluates the strengths and limitations of current and past systems that have been developed to support EC in relation to these standards. We conclude that there remains an unfilled need for systems that can reliably locate buyers and sellers in ele...