James S. Gould

• BSc. Forestry
• Fellow at The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Background Wildfire propagation is inherently non-steady, although forecasts of their spread focus on a pseudo-steady state assumption. Aims To investigate the variability in rate of fire spread of wildfires in southern Australian grassland landscapes, and the effect of landscape features in inhibiting fire propagation. To evaluate the adequacy of...

Background In 1986, CSIRO conducted a large program of experimental fires in grassland at Annaburroo Station, Northern Territory, Australia, with the objective of quantifying the effect of fuel condition (load and height) on fire behaviour. Aims This paper provides the data collected during this program, representing a unique set of observations a...

Reliable and accurate models of the speed of a wildfire front as it moves across the landscape are essential for the timely prediction of its propagation, to devise suitable suppression strategies and enable effective public warnings. We used data from outdoor experimental fires and wildfires to derive an empirical model for the rate of fire spread...

As part of an investigation of wildfire growth and acceleration, the initial growth of incipient fires burning in uniform dry eucalypt forest (Eucalyptus rossii, E. macrorhyncha) litter fuel of 1.2 kg m⁻² was studied in a combustion wind tunnel with a fuel bed width of 1.5 m. Fifty-eight fires of three ignition patterns (point, 400-mm line and 800-...

Sutherland et al. (2020) used simulations from a physics-based numerical fire behaviour model to investigate the effect of the ignition protocol (namely length, direction and rate of ignition) on the spread rates measured in experimental fires. They concluded that the methods used by Cruz et al. (2015) were inadequate as the fires were not spreadin...

A recent numerical simulation study by Moinuddin et al. (2018) determined that over a specific range of Froude numbers defined by them as ‘plume mode’, grass fuel height has a strong inverse effect on the rate of fire spread in grasslands. They then suggested that a relationship for effect of fuel height derived from their simulation results could...

The effect of grass fuel load on fire behaviour and fire danger has been a contentious issue for some time in Australia. Existing operational models have placed different emphases on the effect of fuel load on model outputs, which has created uncertainty in the operational assessment of fire potential and has led to end-user and public distrust of...

The prediction of fire propagation across landscapes is necessary for safe and effective fire management. We analyzed the predictive accuracy of models currently used operationally in Australia for predicting fire spread rates in five different fuel types (grasslands, temperate and semi-arid shrublands, dry eucalypt and conifer forests) compared to...

Appropriate categorisation and description of living vegetation and dead biomass is necessary to support the rising complexity of managing wildland fire and healthy ecosystems. We propose a hierarchical, physiognomy-based classification of wildland fire fuels—the Bushfire Fuel Classification—aimed at integrating the large diversity of Australian ve...

Different methods can be used to measure the time and distance of travel of a fire and thus its speed. The selection of a particular method will depend on the experimental objectives, design, scale, location (in the laboratory or field), required accuracy and resources available. In this study, measurements from ocular observation (directly by eye)...

The knowledge of a free-burning fires potential rate of spread is critical for safe and effective bushfire control and use. A number of models for predicting the head-fire rate of spread in various types of Australian vegetation have been developed over the past 60 years or so since Alan G. McArthur began his pioneering research into bushfire behav...

Grass senescence, or grassland curing, is a dynamic process in which grass fuels transition from a live to dead state and, in turn, influence fire dynamics. In the present study we examined the process of curing with specific consideration of changes in fuel structure that will affect potential fire behaviour. Our sampling protocol expanded the fue...

A shrubland fire behaviour dataset was assembled using data from experimental studies in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and South Africa. The dataset covers a wide range of heathlands and shrubland species associations and vegetation structures. Three models for rate of spread are developed using 2-m wind speed, a wind reduction factor, elevated de...

Quantification of fire-prone vegetation is a challenge for land and fire managers who need explicit fuel data to support fire management decision-making. Fuel characteristics including the distribution of fuel elements by size class, live and dead components, compactness, and horizontal and vertical continuity are important determinants of fire beh...

The knowledge of a free-burning fire’s potential rate of spread is critical to safe and effective bushfire control and use in Australia. A number of models for predicting the rate of fire spread in various Australian vegetation types have been developed over the past 60 years or so since Alan G. McArthur began his pioneering research into bushfire...

Data from bushfire incidents in south-west Western Australia from the Departments of Parks and Wildlife and Fire and Emergency Services were used to develop models that predict the number of human-caused bushfires within 10 management areas. Fire incident data were compiled with weather variables, binary classifications of day types (e.g. school da...

Accurate prediction of bushfire behaviour is essential for effective fire management. Such knowledge allows for the timely determination of the potential threat and impacts of a fire and provides the basis for sound fire-management decision-making. Fire behaviour prediction combines quantitative and qualitative information sources that are based on...

Knowledge of fire behaviour potential is necessary for proactive management of fire prone shrublands. Data from two experimental burning programs in mallee-heath shrublands in semi-arid southern Australia were used to develop models for the sustainability of fire spread, fire type, i.e., surface or crown fire, forward spread rate and flame height....

Canada is a largely forested country, and the economic, environmental, and social effects of the country's wildland fire management are of great importance from an industry and public policy perspective. Investment in research can improve the efficiency of wildland fire management and has an important role in the decision-making process. There is a...

The 7 February 2009 wildfires in south-eastern Australia burned over 450,000 ha and resulted in 173 human fatalities. The Kilmore East fire was the most significant of these fires, burning 100,000 ha in less than 12 h and accounting for 70% of the fatalities. We report on the weather conditions, fuels and propagation of this fire to gain insights i...

This paper describes the development of two empirical models to predict the potential spread of an established line of fire in dry eucalypt forest with a shrubby understorey. These models use inputs of fine fuel moisture, wind speed, near-surface fuel height, and either a numerical fuel hazard score or a descriptive fuel rating for the surface and...

This paper describes the conduct and results of a series of high-intensity experimental fires in dry eucalypt forest under summer conditions of high fire danger. Simultaneous experimental fires were conducted at two locations with contrasting understorey and fuel structures that had developed over periods of 2–22 years after prescribed burning. Fue...

The Great Divide Complex of fires started from 66 lightning strikes across the Great Dividing Range in Victoria on 1 December 2006 and eventually burned 1048 410 ha over the following two months. This study analysed the resourcing of suppression activities for these fires and the success of containment efforts until 10 December, when severe fire we...

Temperature profiles of flames were measured using arrays of thermocouples on towers located in experimental bushfires of varying intensity, carried out in dry eucalypt forest of different fuel age and structure. In-fire video of flame-front passage and time series data from very fine exposed thermocouples were used to estimate the duration of pass...

The addition of aerial firefighting resources to wildfire suppression operations does not always result in faster fire containment. In this paper, containment times of fires with aerial suppression are compared with estimated containment times for the same fires without aerial suppression. Senior firefighting personnel who had worked on each fire e...

Techniques for rapid visual assessment of fuel characteristics have a broad range of applications in wild-land fire management and research. We developed and tested a technique for assessing forest fuels which provides hazard ratings for distinct layers within the overall fuel complex, including bark, elevated shrubs, near-surface and surface (fore...

The relationship between woody fuel consumption and fireline intensity was assessed using data collected at controlled fires and wildfires in south-western Western Australia, central Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales. The combined dataset consisted of fires in a range of dry eucalypt forests. Fire behaviour varied from slow, self-extinguis...

Doubt is the essence of understanding – Richard Feynman 1 One important aspect of model development process, the evaluation of the model performance, has received relatively little attention in the wildland fire science literature (Cruz et al. 2003). Model evaluation can be defined as a comparison of a models predicted value with the real world obs...

This paper describes the methodology developed to analyse the IR images obtained during the aerial suppression experiments that were conducted in Ngarkat Conservation Park, South Australia, on 3-5 March 2008. This methodology has been specifically developed in order to be able to extract the maximum information from the IR images taken from an obse...

Rapid detection of wildfire outbreaks is a critical component of fire management because suppression activities are most effective when fires are small. One method of fire detection and location is computer analysis of images from sensors mounted on towers. In this paper we report on a trial of two image-based detection systems under operational co...

Preprint

Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Au...

Fire behaviour prediction requires models of dead fuel moisture that are both accurate and suitable for use for operational applications. The paper investigates two methods of developing a simple operational fine fuel moisture model from a more complex process-based model. The first simple model is a table of fuel moisture predictions for values of...

Mallee-heath vegetation occurring in semiarid and Mediterranean climates develops a vertically nonuniform and spatially discontinuous fuel complex. The heterogeneity of the fuel layers sustaining fire propagation leads to fire behaviour characterised by nonlinear dynamics where small changes in the drivers of fire spread lead to large changes in ob...

The estimation of fire behaviour is an important component of any fire management approach, allowing the determination of the impacts of fire on ecosystem components and supporting forest fire management decision-making. Fire behaviour prediction combines quantitative and qualitative information based on experience and scientific principles of desc...

Empirical modelling of fire behaviour based on field data has resulted in significant advances in forest fire science and produced numerous research and operational decision support tools. This field-based research requires measuring of fire behaviour quantities, e.g., rate of spread and flame geometry, in a number of outdoor experimental fires bur...

Postprint (published version)

Fire behaviour data from Project Vesta experimental fires were used to evaluate the fire behaviour relationship on the Forest Fire Danger Meter (FFDM), the Forest Fire Behaviour Tables (FFBT) for Western Australia and the fire spread model of Burrows (1999) for predicting the rate of spread of fires in jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest under dry...

An effective response to bushfires relies on accurate predictions of fire behaviour, particularly the rate of spread, intensity and ‘spotting’. This field guide has been developed to provide a systematic method for assessing fuel hazard and predicting potential fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forest. It will assist in making vital decisions that ens...

Project Vesta was a comprehensive research project to investigate the behaviour and spread of high-intensity bushfires in dry eucalypt forests with different fuel ages and understorey vegetation structures. The project was designed to quantify age-related changes in fuel attributes and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests typical of southern Aust...

Physics-based coupled fire–atmosphere models are based on approximations to the governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, and the thermal degradation of solid fuel. They require significantly more computational resources than the most commonly used fire spread models, which are semi-empirical or empirical. However, there are a number of fi...

Firefighters engaged in parallel or indirect attack are working in a "dead-man zone" if they do not appreciate the time and space required to find a safe refuge. In this zone, if the wind direction changes, the fire can advance so rapidly that the firefighters have very little time to seek refuge in the burnt area behind a suppressed portion of lin...

This pager describes a model to predict fire spread in grasslands from wind speed at 10 m, dead fuel moisture, and degree of grass curing in three defined pasture types, The model was developed from spread measurements of experimental fins that were adjusted to their potential rate of spread at wide fronts. Extrapolations of the model were compared...

Information on weather, fuel and fire behaviour were recorded on 56 experimental prescribed fires in young coastal silvertop ash (Eucalyptus sieberi) regrowth forest in south-east New South Wales, Australia. The thermal environment above the fire was measured in 14 of those fires. Existing plume models, based on the assumption of a uniformly burnin...

The use of the terms "growth" and "acceleration" appears to be inconsistent in the literature and we believe this inconsistency has hindered our understanding of behaviour in the early stages of a fire. The development of a fire from a point ignition to some equilibrium state and the associated increase in fire size and intensity has been referred...

The development of grass fires originating from both point and line ignitions and burning in both open grasslands and woodlands with a grassy understorey was studied using 487 periods of fire spread and associated fuel, weather and fire-shape observations. The largest fires travelled more than 1000 m from the origin and the fastest 2-minute spread...

Equations were fitted to the tables and graphs developed by Alan Mc Arthur (1923–1978) to predict low intensity fires suitable for control burning in mature eucalypt forest. These equations were used here to evaluate the suitability of McArthur's burning guide for predicting low-intensity fire behaviour and scorch damage in E. sieben regrowth fores...

Fire-spread was measured on 121 grass fires in a 2500 ha experimental site in the Northern Territory, Australia. Selected plots were harvested to alter the height, load and bulk density of the fuel-bed. Fires were lit from a line and allowed to travel up to 400 m down-wind. Fire-spread was correlated with fuel, weather and fireshape variables using...

Fire is a world wide phenomenon and over the past decade there have been moves to a new level of wildland fire management activities and a shift in management priorities. In looking to the future, there is now a general consensus from wildland fire management agencies on the cumulative effects of climate change, fuel treatment, forest disturbances,...

In recent years, considerable attention has been given to aerial suppression programs as a result of rising cost, tight budgets and general interest by the public and media in the use of airtankers. Fire authorities have highlighted the extensive media coverage and strong community perceptions from the use of specialised aircraft for fire fighting....

There is currently no spatial wildfi re spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fi re simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fi re spread applications...

Importance of head fire width and shape is significant in influencing the fire spread in forest fuels. Forest fires where the head fire width is narrow are not spreading at their full potential and with a small change in wind strength and/or direction will have a sudden change in the behaviour and spread of the fire. Prescribed burning ignition pat...

Fire behaviour guides developed for open eucalypt forests in Australia have used fine fuel load as the principal fuel variable for predicting rate of spread and difficulty of suppression. This approach has the merit of simplicity in operational use, and allows fire behaviour predictions to be linked to models of fuel accumulation that are based on...

Project Vesta was an experimental study to quantify age-related changes in fuel attributes and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests typical of southern Australia. Experimental fires were conducted during dry summer conditions at two sites with understorey fuels ranging in age from 2 to 22 years since fire in south-western Australian eucalypt fore...