James Doran

University of Essex · School of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering

We suggest that, as an extension to traditional historical analysis, it is potentially insightful and useful to model guerrilla wars in agent-based terms. Accordingly, the Iruba agent-based model of a guerrilla war has been designed and implemented. Some experimental results obtained with the model and conclusions that may be drawn from them are re...

A new agent architecture, MIAP (Multiple Interactive Adaptive Projections), is described, together with a particular MIAP agent, MIAP-D, that has been implemented and tested. The ability of the MIAP architecture to support forms of learning, episodic memory, planning, meta-control and symbolic language use is explained. It is argued that the MIAP a...

It is apparent that much greater global cooperation is required in face of the risks to humankind of major catastrophe. I argue that abstract agent-based computer modelling may be an effective tool to point ways in which this additional cooperation may be brought about. The approach presented here – the MoHAT project – employs a global perspective...

Initial experimental plan is to formulate and consider possible relationships between frequency and type of pathogen invasions and alternative immune systems -- to be carried out by specifying precise abstract computational (and possibly mathematical) models.

This preprint contains the ideas (with some exposition of them) in the the New-Ideas-Bag

This is a transcript of an online (text) INTERVIEW of Jim Doran conducted by Dave Hales. It centers on the personal research history of JED, especial as regards AI and Agent Based Modelling but touching also on Computer Applications in Archaeology, from the 1960s to the present day, adding some discussion of present trends in ABM and of key problem...

This draft working paper (DRAFT 2) is an update of a previous draft (DRAFT 1) with the same title. The abstract mathematical/computational conjecture considered is a spin-off from the ongoing MoHAT Project (Doran, In preparation) which aims to use ABM computer simulation to explore possible pathways to greater global cooperation in face of the risk...

This working paper comprises notes aimed at connecting a purely computational view of agent-based modelling using production systems (in the technical computational sense) to a socio-cognitive interpretation. A model is here defined to be a set of agent rule-sets.The conjecture put forward is as follows: There exist MAS(PS) execution process macro-...

In this FOREWORD I suggest that archaeological investigation is not just a matter of tourism or national pride or the like, but is of fundamental importance for our understanding of human society both in the past AND in the future and hence decisions about humankind’s future well-being. Furthermore I suggest that mathematical precision adds a great...

It is widely felt that humankind is substantially at risk of major catastrophe, if not immediately then certainly in the medium term. MoHAT is a personal research project to investigate certain problems in the application of agent-based simulation to the task of improving humanity’s global cooperation in face of these species risks. Five particula...

ABSTRACT From the AI perspective, there are at least two possible views of routines which might support computer modelling: EITHER a routine is a structured collection of {IF...THEN …} rules OR routines correspond to plans generated by AI style planning systems. In the latter case, if generated/used plans are preserved and held in a “plan databa...

Agent-based modelling has a 40+ year history in archaeology, although the word “agent” was not initially used. This rather long history prompts three obvious questions: what progress has been made so far, however hesitantly? What now are the major technical obstacles facing ABM in archaeology? And where should we be going with this line of research...

Phenomenalistic idealism (Berkeley, 1710, 1975; Foster, 2008; Dicker, 2011) is a philosophical position which points out that, as individual minds, we have direct access only to sensa and ideas. Hence all that can securely be said to exist are minds, the sensa they perceive, and the ideas they formulate. Accordingly, notions of mind-independent mat...

Two abstract and computational models of the long-term process of science are proposed: AMS and HAMS. An outline specification of each model is given and the relationship between them explained. AMS takes an Olympian (\"artificial world\") view of science and its processes. HAMS is simpler and relatively more abstract and comprises only a small set...

The contributors to this thought-provoking volume address two major questions concerning agent-based modelling in archaeology: is such modelling going to play a substantial role in archaeological studies in the future, and, if so, why has it not played much of a role in the forty or so years since it was first proposed.

Computational agent-based modelling of social scenarios for the social sciences, notably economics, requires that computational agents be created to model social actors. The social actors may be, for example, individual human beings, human groups or organisations. Clearly the social actors may be cognitively complex, and this implies that the agent...

Slides (~90) from an invited talk at ESSA 2009 held at the University of Surrey, Guildford, UK. The talk covered the history of ABM projects (typically archaeologically related) at the University of Essex, and the MIAP agent architecture and related ideas, and ended with a discussion of the implications of the unexpected fact that agents often them...

We reflect on the potential of agent-based computer models for the support of peacemaking in the context of guerrilla wars. The intention is not to use such models to further the success or defeat of insurgencies but rather to support the negotiations that so often form a crucial part of the "end game" of a guerrilla war. In particular, we discuss...

An agent-based model of a typical guerrilla war, the Iruba model, has been designed and implemented based upon published descriptions and theories of guerrilla warfare. Experimental results have been obtained with the model and conclusions drawn. A core feedback loop is detected. The possibility of using the Iruba model to predict the outcomes of s...

Algorithmic analysis of models is a standard tool in general, but is rarely attempted in the context of computer models for agent-based social simulation. We explore the algorithmic analysis of simulation models that take the form of production systems as defined in computer science. Several implemented analysis algorithms for a particular type of...

To build an agent-based computational model of a specific socioenvironmental system requires that answers be found to several important questions including: what social actors and contextual entities are to be modelled as software agents? With what mental functions must these software agents be equipped? What standard design or designs should be us...

Computational experiments are reported involving the concept of foreknowledge, an agent's direct, unmediated and accurate, but possibly incomplete, awareness of its future including states and events involving the agent itself. Foreknowledge is used here as a conceptual tool with which to explore certain issues around time and rationality. We first...

A simple discrete mathematical model of a space, time and matter manifold, called a STaM, is described which is intended as a framework within which to study agents and multi-agent systems. In this paper we concentrate on two-dimensional Boolean STaMs, and report implemented algorithms for detecting agents within them. A specific e xample STaM is g...

Central to sustainable natural resource management is the achievement of cooperation and collective action amongst stakeholders with initially conflicting short and long-term goals. It is argued that automatically generated agent-based computer models may be used to explore the ways in which external intervention can bring about effective stakehold...

Cooperation is often presented as one of the key concepts which differentiates multi-agent sys- tems from other related disciplines such as distributed computing, object-oriented systems, and expert systems. However it is a concept whose precise usage in agent-based systems is at best unclear and at worst highly inconsistent. Given the centrality o...

We propose a n abst ract mathematical model of space and time within which to study agents, multi-agent systems and their environments. The model is unusual in t hree ways: an att empt is made to reduce the structure and behaviour of agents and their environment to the properties of the "matter" of which they are c omposed, a "block time" perspecti...

Planned intervention to achieve stakeholder cooperation and coalition is essential for successful environmental management. Agent-based modelling on a computer has the potential to build a practical theory of intervention in this and related contexts. Potentially we can compare real intervention strategies with those an agent-based model suggests a...

In a well-known paper published in 1969, John McCarthy and Pat Hayes asked what criteria a Martian entering a room on Earth should use to detect any agents that might be present in the room. Here we present a simple discrete mathematical model of a space, time and matter manifold, called a STaM, as a context in which to search for agents. We focus...

We propose an advanced agent-based modelling approach to ecosystem management, informed and motivated by consideration of the Fraser River watershed and its management problems. Agent-based modelling is introduced, and a three-stage computer-based research programme is formulated, the focus of which is on how best to intervene to cause stakeholders...

Introduction One of the main reasons for the sustained activity and interest in the field of agent-based systems, apart from the obvious recognition of its value as a natural and intuitive way of understanding the world, is its reach into very many different and distinct fields of investigation. Indeed, the notions of agents and multi-agent systems...

We present agent-based modelling and social simulation in particular application to ecosystem management. The steps in designing and building an agent-based model are discussed, as are the methodological problems typically encountered. Examples of relevant agent-based models are given. The task of integrated ecosystem management is considered and e...

Agent-based modelling on a computer appears to have a special role to play in the development of social science and the formulation of social policy. It offers a means of discovering general and applicable social theory, and grounding it in precise assumptions and derivations, whilst addressing those elements of individual cognition that are centra...

A non-standard approach to cognitive processes and multi-agent systems is proposed and taken a few steps forward. The approach focuses on the precise, abstract definition of an environmental history that an agent must enable by its actions, on Boolean networks as agent control devices, and on the cognitive processes (eg plan generation and executio...

The theory, principles and practice of multi-agent systems is typically characterised as a computational and engineering discipline, since it is through the medium of computational systems that artificial agent systems are most commonly expressed. However, most definitions of agency draw directly on non-computational disciplines for inspiration. Du...

Can archaeologists help software engineers unravel what has been happening in an artificial society of intelligent agents? We discuss the methods that archaeologists regularly use and how they relate to the properties of an artificial society and the problems faced in recovering its history. As part of the discussion, an abstract model of a typical...

Illustrates and discusses use of agent-based artificial societies to explore possible trajectories into social complexity with integration of ideas from both anthropology and agent technology

This report is the result of a panel discussion at the First UK Workshop on Foundations of Multi-Agent Systems (held at the University of Warwick on Oct. 23rd 1996). The three panellists and the chairman are the authors of this document and they are listed in alphabetical order.

Microsimulation en sciences sociales. Ci-dessous se trouvent trois articles basés sur des présentations et des discussions qui ont eu lieu au Séminaire de Dagstuhl sur la microsimulation en sciences sociales: "Une défi à l'informatique". Schloβ Dagstuhl. 1-5 mai 1995, et ont été publiés depuis dans K. G. Troitzsch, U. Mueller, G. N. Gilbert et J.E....

Although computer oriented archaeologists seem to have become somewhat disillusioned with computer simulation as a tool, other social sciences are witnessing a significant wave of enthusiasm for it, particularly in the form of agent-based modelling. My aim in this article is to reach some understanding of just why this paradoxical situation has ari...

Die neueste Spielart von Kunstlicher Intelligenz (KI) ist die agententheorie. Mit vielen autonomen, aber inter-agierenden Computerprogrammen (Agenden) lassen sich nicht nur Internet-Geschafteabwickeln, sondern auch die Entwicklungen von Borsenkursen studieren. James E. Doran, seit Anfang der 60er Jahre KI-Expertean der Universitat Edinburgh, lehrt...

This report is the result of a panel discussion at the Second UK Workshop on Foundations of Multi-Agent Systems (FOMAS'97). All members of the panel are authors, listed alphabetically.

Computer simulation in support of the social sciences is far from new. But, with one or two exceptions, notably certain types of economic modeling, it has never become a major weapon in the social scientists armoury. However, in the last few years developments in intelligent agents and multiple agent systems have sparked a new interest in computer...

Proceedings of Third International Conference on Multi-Agent Systems, Paris, France. July 3-7, 1998. (Extended Abstract of Invited Address) pp 4-5. July, 1998

It appears that what the agents in a multiple agent system believe is typically partial, often wrong and often inconsistent, but that this may not be damaging to the system as a whole. Beliefs which are demonstrably wrong I call misbeliefs. Experiments are reported which have been designed to investigate the phenomenon of collective misbelief in ar...

This paper discusses and illustrates how artificial societies created within computers may be used to perform experiments which address significant issues in the philosophy of time and knowledge. It is specifically targeted at the concept of foreknowledge, an agent's unmediated and accurate (if partial) awareness of future facts or events. It asks...

The established methods of computer simulation have recently been augmented by new and valuable techniques derived from Artificial Intelligence (AI) studies. These new techniques centre on agents and agent technology., and enable theory building experiments with artificial societies. This paper is a strategic discussion, from a classical AI perspec...

My aim in this short paper is to examine some methodological problems associated with computer simulation of social systems and especially with the use of so called “artificial societies”. I shall proceed by posing and discussing a series of questions intended to provoke consideration of key issues.

This paper describes an approach to the study and understanding of social processes which has recently become prominent: systematic experimentation with "artificial societies" created on computers. The contribution that this new research tool can make to a "cognitive" archaeology, is considered. It is particularly asked how artificial societies tec...

Collection of chapters by various authors grouped as follows: I Social Science Microsimulation / Microanalytic simulation models II Social Science Multilevel Simulation III Game Theory and Cellular Automata IV Distributed Artificial Intelligence With a forward look Appendix

This paper reviews the case for the use of computer simulation in archaeology, describes in detail an illustrative simulation study relating to the emergence of social complexity in the Upper Palaeolithic period, discusses methodological issues and draws conclusions.

The EOS project concerns the development of a specialised software testbed, and the design, implementation and testing within it of a simple computational version of the Mellars model for the growth of unprecedented social complexity in the Upper Palaeolithic period of south-western Europe (Mellars, 1985). New EOS work is reported here which additi...

: This paper discusses the prospects for using Distributed AI techniques to support the computer simulation of societies. Newly developed ideas and techniques are reviewed, some relevant projects are briefly described, and some potential pitfalls are noted. 1.0 Introduction Computer based simulation of societies is again a growing research area (Gi...

Computer based simulation of societies is again a growing research area, with the use of distributed AI techniques a particularly promising and exciting recent development. However, given the convergence of research traditions involved, it is not easy to achieve a clear overview of the potential pitfalls and prospects. I attempt such an overview, m...

This foreword reflects on the problems and opportunities encountered by intellectual disciplines of mixed intellectual ancestry, by analogy with the problems and opportunities faced by children of mixed race parents.

The EOS project created and explored a computational interpretation of a model informally specified by Paul Mellars, a University of Cambridge Archaeologist, for the growth of social complexity in the Upper Palaeolithic (around the time of the last glacial maximum) in Southwestern France. Mellar's model related changing features of the natural envi...

We explain what we mean by modelling and by computer simulation, and suggest that there is one simple and unified modelling framework which encompasses the various modelling traditions. We discuss in detail the special problems and opportunities associated with modelling or simulating societies, especially human societies. We use the various publis...

This paper reports on work in progress towards developing CADDIE and its planner MAPLAN (Multiple Agent PLANner). CADDIE is a generic DAI testbed for building, integrating and simulating the use of distributed decision systems. The focus of the work presented in this paper is the architecture of the multi-agent planner at the heart of the CADDIE en...

The EOS project has as its primary objective to formulate and experiment with a computational interpretation of an informal model proposed by Paul Mellars for the emergence of social complexity in the Upper Palaeolithic period in South-Western France. A feature of the project is the is the use of concepts and tecniques of distributed artificial int...

Without Abstract

This paper describes the MCS multiple agent software testbed that has been developed as a research tool in the University of Essex, Department of Computer Science. Recent enhancements to the testbed are noted, and experiments using it are briefly reported and discussed. The experiments particularly concern the relationship between 'situated' action...

The heart of this chapter is an attempt to translate a set of ideas -- observations, insights, hypotheses -- from one relatively informal domain of consideration to another which is more rigorous but more limited. The hope is that by so doing both the ideas in question and the two domains of consideration will be illuminated. The ideas are a subset...

SECTION TITLES: INTRODUCTION, MODELLING AND SIMULATION, A BRIEF HISTORY, ILLUSTRATIVE STUDIES grouped into 5 types: 1. Synchronic models and optimality, 2. Monte Carlo simulations, 3. Mathematics and systems dynamics, 4. Decision making and Artificial Intelligence, 5. Expert Systems), DISCUSSION OF THE STUDIES: COMMON SENSE AND THEORETICAL ISSUES,...

This article (Science and Archaeology No 31, 1989, pp 3-11, ISSN 0586-9668) briefly reviews DAI concepts, looks at particularly relevant insights into sociocultural emergence provided by Mellars and by Brumfiel and Earle, and then explains how the two theoretical domains of DAI and sociocultural emergence have been experimentally linked in work at...

This chapter surveys and discusses aspects of distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) and socio-cultural systems modelling, and suggests that the former provides a strong platform for the latter. Multi-actor systems (aka multi-agent systems) are defined and it is suggested that we need precise abstract specifications of such systems from which th...

Introduction; Artificial Intelligence Studies; The Teamwork Project; Theories and Models; Modelling a Sociocultural System with a Programmed Multi-Actor System; The Contract Model; Computer Experimentation and the Development of Sociocultural Theory; Computational Models and Theoretical Presuppositions; Relating Theory to Data; Statistical Analysis...

This paper briefly reviews some of the major developments in the use of formal methods in European and American archaeology over the past decade, looks at the relationship of these methods to archaeological theory and to the controversies concerning it, and then suggests ways in which some particular formal concepts and methods deriving from artifi...

This paper reports and discusses initial experiments with a computer simulation program which embodies an abstract model of a sociocultural system. The model displays a form of spontaneous collapse. Central to the model is the locally and heuristically determined adoption and discard of mutually beneficial and cumulative “contracts” between compone...

Important problems of natural language and of individual and cultural knowledge may usefully be approached by a computational route. Central is the concept of a multi-actor system (sometimes called a 'multi-agent system' in the research literature). By this is here meant a collection of actors within a common task environment. Each actor has its ow...

The chapter proposes and discusses a computational model that seems to offer a useful approach to the study of the dynamics of a sociocultural system in its environment (This brief abstract to be expanded shortly. JD 25.8.17)

A number of recent archaeological computer simulation studies are contrasted and their individual and joint limitations considered. The likely future of such work is discussed including the utility of simulation studies not validated against detailed archaeological data. An example problem, the origins of "gateway communities", is considered in som...

This chapter considers the problems of interpretation which archaeologists encounter when they study excavation data from prehistoric cemetery sites. These problems are considered in the light of evolving artificial intelligence theories of specialist knowledge representation. The discussion is illustrated by reference to the La Tene cemeteries at...

This book is for students and practitioners of archaeology. It offers an introductory survey of all the applications of mathematical, statistical and computational techniques to their work, including automatic classification, multivariate analysis, automatic seriation, mathematical models, and computer simulation.

A particular problem of archaeological (temporal) seriation is attacked by several different computational methods and their relative effectiveness examined and discussed.

This is a short discussion of the automatic generation of explanatory hypotheses in an archaeological context . Particular reference is made to the relevance of the AI Expert Systems Heuristic Dendral and Meta-Dendral

This chapter describes and contrasts some of the more recent theories and models of the mammalian brain and its component structures. The emphasis is on theories or models that make some use of mathematics or computer simulation. There are four main topics: preliminary remarks concerning neurons and small networks of neurons, an outline description...

This early (1970) article rejects the use of the then fashionable systems theory and cybernetics in archaeology and instead argues for the use of computer simulation of a type which is now known as agent-based.

A computer program is described which simulates a heuristic controller learning to perform a rather special control task -- to control a simple automaton (aka "agent") "living" in a simple environment. The agent acquires the resources it needs to survive by observation, planning, plan execution, and generalisation. Experimental results are presente...

This chapter is a survey and discussion of research work relevant to the task of constructing some kind of reasoning robot. The emphasis is entirely on the organisation of reasoning processes, in particular planning, rather than on hardware. An aim of this chapter is to clarify the relationship between some superficially rather disparate approaches...

A computer program is described which simulates a heuristic automaton (ie an agent) which explores by planning and plan execution in a very primitive but natural environment. The environment is natural in that its properties are analogous to some of those of the world around us, but primitive in that these properties are greatly simplified. Trials...

This is my REVIEW of a book by Hunt, Marin and Stone reporting early experiments in induction from an AI perspective

In a recent review article, the archaeologist Professor R.J.C Atkinson has said of the use of a digital computer that “this, at any rate by non-scientists, is nowadays regarded as the secular equivalent of divine revelation”, (Atkinson, 1966). The aim of this short paper is to combat this sad situation, in so far as it exists in the archaeological...

A digital computer program, the Graph Traverser (Doran and Michie, 1966),can seek a solution to any problem which may be interpreted as that of finding a path from one specified node of a graph to another. Emphasis is placed on the evaluation of intermediate states of the problem (nodes of the graph) according to the extent to which they resemble t...