James E. Campbell

James E. Campbell
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York | SUNY Buffalo · Department of Political Science

PhD

About

102
Publications
9,064
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2,609
Citations
Citations since 2017
1 Research Item
638 Citations
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2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
Additional affiliations
August 1998 - present
University at Buffalo, SUNY
Position
  • Professor
September 1992 - May 1994
National Science Foundation
Position
  • Program Officer
August 1988 - June 1998
Louisiana State University
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (102)
Article
Full-text available
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts - Volume 50 Issue 2 - James E. Campbell, Helmut Norpoth, Alan I. Abramowitz, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, James E. Campbell, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, Brad Lockerbie, Thomas M. Holbrook, Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred...
Article
The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections - Volume 49 Issue 4 - James E. Campbell
Book
Many continue to believe that the United States is a nation of moderates. In fact, it is a nation divided. It has been so for some time and has grown more so. Polarized provides a new and historically grounded perspective on the polarization of America, systematically documenting how and why it happened. Polarized presents commonsense benchmarks t...
Article
Full-text available
Evaluations of the 2014 Midterm Election Forecasts - Volume 48 Issue 2 - James E. Campbell, Alan I. Abramowitz, Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, Benjamin Highton, Eric McGhee, John Sides
Article
This article examines the influences on the 2014 midterm congressional elections. The election was a decisive victory for the Republican Party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats and with them control of the Senate. They also gained thirteen House seats, extending their House majority to its largest size in over 80 years. Although Republican s...
Article
Three issues of presidential election forecasting research are raised. The first concerns the consequences for forecasting models of presidential elections becoming more narrowly decided. A realigned and polarized party system has led to smaller election margins in presidential contests since 1984. This development complicates model estimation and...
Article
Objectives We investigate whether growing income inequality has heightened differences in economic interests between “the haves” and “the have nots” and if this class polarization has increased ideological polarization in the electorate. Methods We examine the trend in ideological orientation among low‐ and high‐income voters from 1972 to 2008. Res...
Article
This article examines the influences on the 2012 presidential election that led to the closely decided reelection of Barack Obama. Partisan parity, ideological polarization, a hyper-competitive campaign, the incumbent’s approval ratings, and evenly divided pre-convention preference polls were strong signs that the election would be close. The econo...
Article
The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.
Article
On September 10, 2012, immediately following the close of the Democratic Party's national nominating convention and 57 days before Election Day on November 6, my Convention Bump and Economy Model predicted that Barack Obama was likely to receive 51.3% of the national two-party popular vote. The Convention Bump and Economy Model consists of Gallup's...
Article
Have Democratic presidents since World War Ð had economic records that were superior to those of their Republican counterparts? In a previous study, I reported findings that there were no significant differences between the economic records of the presidential parties once the conditions of the economy they inherited from their predecessor were tak...
Article
This symposium presents 13 articles forecasting the 2012 US national elections. Included in this collection are the eight national and one state presidential vote forecasting models published in PS: Political Science & Politics during the 2008 elections along with three additional forecasts and one article offering a composite of the forecasts. Alt...
Article
This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential and US House of Representatives elections. The presidential forecasts are of the national two-party presidential vote percentage for the in-party candidate and are based on the trial-heat and economy forecasting equation and its companion convention-bump equation. The House election forecast...
Article
Larry Bartels in Unequal Democracy claims that Democratic presidents from 1948 to 2005 were generally more successful than Republican presidents in spurring economic growth and in reducing both unemployment and inequality in the distribution of incomes. This paper refutes those claims. Bartels' findings depend on the treatment of transition periods...
Article
Several studies of the post-war American political economy find that Democratic presidents have been more successful than Republicans. Most recently, Bartels (2008) found that economic growth had been greater and that unemployment and income inequality had been lower under Democratic presidents since 1948. If true, these findings combined with the...
Article
Democrats were trounced in the 2010 midterm elections. They lost six seats in the U.S. Senate, six governorships, and about 700 seats in state legislatures. Compared to 2008, Democrats lost 64 seats in the House and Republicans regained their House majority. The Republican majority elected in 2010 was the largest number of Republicans elected since...
Article
An implicit assumption of many presidential election forecasting models is that the political fundamentals in place before the campaign are “played out” in the course of the campaign, that election results are largely unaffected by major unanticipated events during the campaign. In effect, the history of normal elections provides the basis for fore...
Article
The “Seats in Trouble” forecasting model predicted in mid-August that Republicans would gain a landslide number of seats in the 2010 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and that this number would be sufficiently large to restore their majority control of the House, which was lost in the 2006 midterms. Republicans were predicted to gain...
Article
Like all surveys, the American National Election Studies (NES) imperfectly reflects population characteristics. There are well-known differences between actual and NES-reported turnout rates and between actual and NES-reported presidential vote divisions. This research seeks to determine whether the aggregate misrepresentation of turnout and vote c...
Article
Like all surveys, the American National Election Studies (NES) imperfectly reflects population characteristics. There are wellknown differences between actual and NES-reported turnout rates and between actual and NES-reported presidential vote divisions. This research seeks to determine whether the aggregate misrepresentation of turnout and vote ch...
Article
James E. Campbell is a professor in and chair of the department of political science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY. He frequently contributes to journals on subjects relating to campaigns, elections, and American macropolitics. His most recent book is The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Elections and the National Vote, Second Edition (TAM...
Article
This research tests the idea that retrospective voting in presidential elections is conditional, that retrospective evaluations are applied more strictly to incumbents seeking election than to in-party candidates (successor candidates) who are not incumbents. Voters may assign only partial credit or blame for national conditions to successor candid...
Article
This paper presents a forecasting model of the net partisan seat swing in U.S. House elections. The model uses the district ratings of the Cook Political Report to constructs an index of the net number of seats "in trouble" for the parties. That along with either the party's initial number of seats or an index of presidential approval are the basis...
Article
This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideolog...
Article
We propose and examine a theory of how the context of the political climate and incumbency interact to affect candidate strategies and their impact on candidate evaluations and the vote in presidential elections. From this theory, we generate four hypotheses. Two concern the difference between elections in which the incumbent runs as opposed to ope...
Article
This article examines the influences on the 2008 presidential election that led to the election of Barack Obama. There were many reasons why observers expected 2008 to be a strong year for the Democrats. The poor retrospective evaluations of the Bush presidency were thought to be too much of a burden for any Republican presidential candidate to bea...
Article
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. On September 8, 2008, the Trial-heat Forecasting Model predicted that in-party candidate Senator John McCain would receive 52.7% of the national...
Article
This symposium presents 10 articles forecasting the 2008 U.S. national elections. The core of this collection is the seven presidential-vote forecasting models that were presented in this space before the 2004 election. Added to that group are one additional presidential forecasting model, one state-level elections forecasting model, and one model...
Article
Full-text available
The trial-heat forecasting equation grew out of an examination of Gallup's trial-heat polls (“if the election were held today, who would you vote for?”) at various points in election years as predictors of the November vote (Campbell and Wink 1990). My co-author Ken Wink and I found, not surprisingly, that polls as literal forecasts were not very a...
Book
A systematic study of American presidential elections. It presents the Theory of the Predictable Campaign, explaining campaign effects as substantially the playing out of the fundamentals place before the campaign gets underway. Campaign effects are constrained by the stable context in which they take place (e.g., partisanship, known candidates and...
Article
This article examines four problems with past evaluations of presidential election forecasting and suggests one aspect of the models that could be improved. Past criticism has had problems with establishing an overall appraisal of the forecasting equations, in assessing the accuracy of both the forecasting models and their forecasts of individual e...
Article
Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's "theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell...
Article
According to David Mayhew (2002: 58-59, 35), ''Neither statistics nor stories bear out the canonical realignments calendar of 1860, 1896, and 1932,'' and ''no certifi- able electoral realignment has occurred since 1932.'' This study examines the national division of the U.S. presidential vote and House of Representatives seats from 1868 to 2004 to...
Article
Full-text available
This research updates, revises, and extends a forecasting equation of the presidential vote in the states. The original equation was composed of sixteen predictors available well before the election and estimated with data from 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988. The equation was empirically strong, based on objective predictors, and more parsim...
Article
Drawing on several theories of congressional election change, this article presents a forecasting equation for seat change in U.S. House elections. The equation addresses the problem of the over time comparability of seat change when levels of competition at the congressional district level have declined dramatically, a decline that has substantial...
Article
JAMES E. CAMPBELL examines how pre-campaign fundamentals and the campaign affected the 2004 presidential election. Incumbency, high turnout, and concerns that Kerry would not handle the war on terrorism as well as Bush tipped the electorate toward President Bush. An electorate evenly divided in its partisanship, the economy, conflicting views about...
Article
Full-text available
Presidential elections are largely structured by certain fundamentals that are in place before the campaigns begin. These are the public’s opinion about the in‐party and the candidate choice, the general state of the election‐year economy, and incumbency. This trinity of fundamentals have in various ways been incorporated into statistical models th...
Article
1. The errors were: Wlezien and Erikson .5% and 1.7%, Lewis-Beck and Tien 1.3%, Abramowitz 2.4%, Campbell 2.5%, Norpoth 3.5%, Holbrook 4.9%, and Lockerbie 6.4%. Due to a coding mistake, Holbrook's forecast was 56.1% for Bush, not his originally re- ported 54.5%. The forecasting model by Cuzan and
Article
On Labor Day, 57 days before the election, using the Gallup poll's division of likely voters and GDP growth during the second quarter of the year, the trial-heat and economy forecasting model predicted that George W. Bush would receive 53.8% of the two-party popular vote (Campbell 2004a). Out of concerns about relying too heavily on a single poll a...
Article
The trial-heat poll and economy forecasting model is a simple model based on a simple principle. The model uses just two predictor variables to forecast the in-party presidential candidate's share of the national two-party popular vote. The first is the in-party presidential candidate's share of support between the major party candidates in the Gal...
Article
This symposium presents seven presidential election forecasting models and their predictions of the popular two-party vote in the 2004 election. The modern age of election forecasting is now into its third decade. Models have been tested quite publicly in the heat of battle—with some doing well, others not quite so well, and still others making way...
Article
may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, bepress. The Forum is produced by The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). Abstract This article examines the 2004 presidential campaign b...
Chapter
How did Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush emerge fron the presidential election of 2000 as the nation’s forty-third president? In the most immediate sense, the answer in one word is Florida. Florida was the pivotal state. Its 25 electoral votes determined the national electoral vote winner and its popular vote division was almost per...
Article
Full-text available
How often and when have fall presidential general election campaigns during the past 50 years been decisive in determining which presidential candidate would receive the plurality of the national popular vote? This article addresses these questions using data from the Gallup Poll, the National Election Studies, and actual election returns for the 1...
Article
The president's party lost more seats in 1994 than in any midterm election since 1946. The revised theory of surge and decline, which had successfully explained midterm losses since 1868, expected Democrats to lose only about half as many seats as they actually did. This research attempts to determine why the theory failed to anticipate the large 1...
Article
Full-text available
This article revises, updates, and examines the background for a highly accurate model for forecasting the national two-party popular vote in presidential elections. The model provides a vote prediction in early September based on Gallup trial-heat or presidential preference polls and the (nonannualized) rate of economic growth in the second quarte...
Article
Full-text available
Do the national conventions of the Democratic and Republican parties affect the poll standings of the presidential candidates they nominate? This study investigates whether these poll stand ings are bumped upwards following the party conventions. The convention bump is examined with Gallup and Harris time series data of presidential trial-heats thr...
Article
This research examines an equation developed to forecast the two-party presidential vote in the states. The equation is composed of 16 independent variables measured at the national, regional, and state levels. It includes national trial-heat polls from early in the campaign, the growth in the national economy, presidential incumbency, the state's...
Article
This note examines the effects of presidential elections on congressional elections. Nationally aggregated congressional seat and vote change data for the 61 congressional elections held in presidential and midterm election years from 1868 to 1988 are examined in a single-equation model. The results indicate strong presidential “surge and decline”...
Article
Full-text available
This research examines Gallup poll trial-heat forecasts of the two-party presidential popular vote for the incumbent presidential party. First, several existing forecasting equations are updated and evaluated. Trial-heat results at six points throughout campaigns from 1948 to 1988 are then examined. These trial-heats are used in several ways to pro...
Article
Despite the diminished importance of partisanship, greater split-ticket voting, and a growth in Senate campaign spending, a party's presidential vote in the states remains positively related to its Senate vote in recent elections. We investigate to what extent presidential coattails are responsible for this association. State election returns for S...
Article
The status of Angus Campbell's theory of surge and decline is a matter of considerable controversy. While analysis of the composition and voting behavior of presidential and midterm electorates fails to support the theory, analysis of aggregate congressional election results yields supporting evidence. This research seeks to reconcile these finding...
Article
What does the public think of proposed policies of comparable worth for public employees? In a telephone survey we asked 558 Georgians their opinions on whether female-dominated occupations are underpaid because of discrimination and whether a comparable worth policy for public employees is feasible and desirable. Two findings emerge from these sur...
Article
The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41...
Article
This research develops and examines a single-equation model of coattail seat gains. The model consists of two principal independent variables--the presidential vote and the party's strength in Congress prior to the election. Two trend variables are also used where appropriate. The model is examined on an election series from 1944 to 1980, a second...
Article
Full-text available
Two sets of theories attempt to explain the variance in the loss of seats in the House of Representatives by the President's party in midterm elections. The first set of theories, the coattails/surge-and-decline theories, explains midterm losses as a function of the previous presidential election. The second set of theories, the popularity/economy...
Article
Full-text available
This study attempts to gauge the impact of both conversion and mobilization on partisan change in the New Deal realignment. The extent of partisan change in this period is explained by the size and Democratic loyalties of pre-realignment and realignment era voters. The size of various voter cohorts is estimated from voting records and census inform...
Article
Full-text available
This research examines the nature of the incumbency advantage by examining the reactions of voters to incumbents. Voter reactions were taken from responses to the like/dislike questions about candidates for the House of Representatives that were asked in the 1978 and 1980 CPS National Election Studies. The opinions of voters in fourteen districts e...
Article
Full-text available
This research attempts to distinguish image voting, the influence of the voter's assessment of the candidates' personal qualities on the vote, from image rationalization, the influence of the vote on the voter's assessment of the candidate's personal qualities. From an analysis of the opinions of a panel of voters examined during the 1976 president...
Article
This study investigated the causes of ambiguity in the issue positions of presidential candidates from 1968 to 1980. Three potential causes suggested by the research of Shepsle (1972) and Page (1976, 1978) were examined: issue salience, opinion dispersion, and issue proximity. Salience was found not to have a direct effect on ambiguity, but a sligh...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the consequences of ambiguity in the issue positions of presidential candidates from 1968 to 1980. Two potential consequences are examined: a direct impact and a conditional impact on the vote. The findings indicate no significant direct effect on the vote. However, significant conditional effects were found. Compared to los...
Article
This paper attempts to clarify the debate over the likely impact of electoral marginality on the behavior of legislators, by examining a revised version of Fiorina's model of constituency influence. Reconsidering the marginality hypothesis in light of this model has several benefits: (1) marginality considerations are explicitly set in the context...
Article
Full-text available
It has been an assumption common in voting research that candidates must offer and voters must perceive opposing stands on issues for those issues to have a rational influence on the vote. Though apparently reasonable, this assumption eliminates analysis of the rational impact of style in voter thinking. This article argues that style issues should...
Article
Full-text available
This paper argues that six conditions must be met to conclude that issue voting exists: (1) candidates must take different positions on the issues of the day; (2) the campaign issues must be salient to the voter; (3) voters must have a position on the issue; (4) voters must accurately perceive candidate positions; (5) issue-based candidate evaluati...

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