Jakob de Haan

Jakob de Haan
University of Groningen | RUG · Department of Global Economics and Management

Professor

About

478
Publications
112,577
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
17,676
Citations
Introduction
Monetary policy, fiscal policy, European integration

Publications

Publications (478)
Article
Using cross-section, panel, and probit models for a panel of 112 countries over the 2005–2018 period, we examine the effect of natural resource rents on institutional and policy reform, proxied by the change in economic freedom measures. Our results suggest that natural resource rents have a negative and significant effect on the change in economic...
Article
We use a survey among Dutch households to analyze trust in the European Central Bank (ECB). Our results confirm a positive association between respondents’ right-wing ideology, knowledge of the ECB, and trust in other European institutions on the one hand and trust in the ECB on the other. A novel result is that we also find that individuals who we...
Article
Using two large-scale surveys among households, we examine the drivers of public trust in banks, insurance companies, BigTechs, and other people in the United States and the Netherlands, and analyse whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected public trust. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have much effect on trust in financial...
Article
Full-text available
Financial development may affect poverty directly and indirectly through its impact on income inequality, economic growth, and financial instability. Previous studies do not consider all these channels simultaneously. To proxy financial development, we use the ratio of private credit to GDP or an IMF composite measure. Our preferred measure for pov...
Article
We use a randomized controlled trial among Dutch households to analyze whether communication about ECB policy instruments impacts inflation expectations and trust in the ECB. All participants in the survey receive information about the ECB’s goal, but only a subset also receives information about how the ECB tries to achieve this. Our results sugge...
Article
This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5‐year averages to examine the impact of inflation o...
Article
Full-text available
We examine whether fiscal rules’ impact on fiscal performance depends on budget transparency. Using panel data of 73 democratic countries over the 2003–2013 period, we find that fiscal rules do not improve the government budget balance in case of low budget transparency. Furthermore, our results suggest that fiscal rules make (the success of) fisca...
Article
Full-text available
We examine the impact of labour and product market reforms on economic growth in 25 OECD countries between 1985-2013, and tests whether this impact is conditioned by the fiscal policy stance. Our local projection results suggest that controlling for endogeneity of reforms (by the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator) and fiscal policy i...
Article
Trust in financial institutions is widely considered important. However, a clear overview of studies on the drivers of trust is missing. We intend to fill this gap in the literature. After discussing why trust in financial institutions is important, we turn to its measurement, where we distinguish between trust in one's own institution and trust in...
Article
This article offers a meta-regression analysis of the literature on the drivers of financial development (FD). Our results based on 1,900 estimates suggest that institutional quality is positively correlated to both private sector credit and stock market capitalization (both as share of Gross Domestic Product). Domestic financial openness has a pos...
Article
This paper studies the effects of globalization on the income share of the middle class. Our findings suggest that globalization, proxied by the KOF Economic Globalization Index, reduces the income share of the middle class. The income share of the poorest 20% also drops due to globalization, while that of the richest 20% increases. We find that on...
Article
Full-text available
We ask whether fiscal rules constrain incumbents from using fiscal policy tools for reelection purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984–2015 period, we find that strong fiscal rules dampen political budget cycles. Our results are remarkably robust against inclusion...
Article
Full-text available
We study the effects of the announcement of the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro-area countries, while controlling for other ECB statements. We find that the term premia of government bonds in euro area countries with higher sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign CDS spreads...
Article
Full-text available
Based on analysis of fourteen years of data on Dutch consumers’ trust in financial institutions, we find that financially literate consumers are more likely to trust banks, insurance companies and pension funds. This result applies both to broad‐scope trust (trust in financial institutions in general) and narrow‐scope trust (trust in one’s own fina...
Article
In recent years, the relationship between wage growth and the unemployment gap, known as the wage Phillips curve, has been puzzlingly weak: whereas the unemployment gap was low, wage growth was low as well. We consider two possible explanations for this ‘low wage growth puzzle’: (i) a structural change in the relationship between wage growth and la...
Article
Full-text available
Using two large-scale surveys among households, we examine the drivers of trust in banks, insurance companies, BigTechs, and other people in the United States and the Netherlands, and analyse whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected public trust. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have much effect on trust in financial instit...
Article
Full-text available
Using a decomposition of US monetary policy shocks and inflation forecasts from Consensus Economics, we find that information and monetary policy shocks move inflation expectations in opposite directions. Better performing forecasters appear less reliant on the informational content of announcements.
Article
This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro‐area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using quarterly bank‐level data on domestic lending in both countries...
Article
This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a ran...
Article
Full-text available
Using real-time data, we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter- or procyclical in a panel of 27 European Union (EU) member states over the period 2000-2015. We also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy. Our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in EU countries hav...
Article
Full-text available
We estimate the effects of government spending shocks during prolonged episodes of low interest rates, which we consider as proxy for the effective lower bound (ELB). Using a panel VAR model for 17 advanced countries, we find that both the government consumption and investment multipliers are significantly higher, and exceed unity, when interest ra...
Article
Full-text available
Relying on a cost-push input-output model for China, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through to both domestic prices and export prices at the industry level. Our empirical results indicate that the decline of the RMB price in the processing exports sector in response to an RMB appreciation is larger than that in the non-processing exports sector...
Article
Using a newly constructed database for 26 countries over 2000-2014, we analyze cross-country and within-country differences in mortgage arrears. We find that restrictive macro-prudential policies, in particular lower regulatory loan-to-value ratios, are significantly associated with a lower share of mortgage arrears in total residential debt. Likew...
Article
Full-text available
Using annual data for 60 countries over 1980–2014, we study the drivers of fiscal adjustments, expansions, and their duration. In contrast to most previous studies, the identification of these fiscal events relies on breaks in their data generating process. Our findings suggest that a few political and institutional variables play a role in determi...
Book
Full-text available
Written for undergraduate and graduate students of finance, economics and business, the fourth edition of Financial Markets and Institutions provides a fresh analysis of the European financial system. Combining theory, data and policy, this successful textbook examines and explains financial markets, financial infrastructures, financial institution...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the effects of the announcement and the disclosure of the clarification, methodology, and outcomes of the U.S. banking stress tests on banks’ equity prices, credit risk, systematic risk, and systemic risk. We find evidence that stress tests have moved stock and credit markets following the disclosure of stress test results. We also f...
Book
Cambridge Core - Economic Theory - Financial Markets and Institutions - by Jakob de Haan
Article
Simulation results of our theoretical model for banks’ risk-taking behavior suggest that during booms banks have high non-core liabilities, high leverage and few liquid assets, while the reverse holds during busts. We investigate the predictive power of these bank balance sheet variables for future banking crises using monthly data of 147 developin...
Article
During the past decades, central bank independence has been increased in a large number of countries. However, even an independent central bank does not operate in a political vacuum. For instance, governments generally appoint political allies, presuming that consequently the central bank will follow policies that are in line with the governments’...
Article
Full-text available
Using a fixed effects panel model on data for 110 countries over the period 2000–2011, we confirm previous findings that financial stability transparency increases the degree of financial stability in a country. However, our results also suggest that financial stability transparency is significantly negatively related to banks’ non-performing loans...
Article
Full-text available
The role of government involvement in firms has received a lot of attention in the last few decades. Government involvement could result in a ‘supporting hand’ and a ‘grabbing hand’. This paper investigates how government control influences the financial performance of Chinese listed firms. We use a panel data set of firms publicly traded on the st...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using bank-level data on domestic lending in both countries during th...
Chapter
Economists have for some time recognized that institutions play an important role in explaining differences in the wealth and poverty of nations. But whereas most previous research focuses either on economic or political institutions, this book offers an excellent framework explaining how both economic and political institutions drive long-run econ...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the relationship between ECB monetary policy and prudential policies in the host country and international lending by Dutch insurers and pension funds, using confidential institution-specific data. Our results suggest that insurers and pension funds do not significantly change their foreign lending in response to ECB policy changes, prox...
Article
This paper tests Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) using LIBOR rates for six major international currencies for the period January 2001 to December 2008. We find that UIP generally holds over a short-term (above 5-months) horizon for individual as well as groups of currencies. Our results suggest that it is important to consider the cross-correl...
Article
Full-text available
According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly a...
Article
Full-text available
This paper reviews recent research on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky‐prices, incomplete markets, and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows for the joint study of how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect in...
Article
Full-text available
We test the bilateral causal relationship between four types of international capital flows and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in China over the period 1998:Q1 to 2016:Q2 and examine whether the link is time varying. Parameter stability tests suggest that the relationship between capital flows and the RMB REER is time varying both in the s...
Article
Full-text available
Using data of 23 OECD countries over the 1980–2005 period, we examine whether government ideology affects monetary policy, conditional on central bank independence. Unlike previous studies in this line of literature, we estimate central bank behavior using forward‐looking and real‐time data in Taylor rule models and use estimators that allow for he...
Article
Using data of 65 economies from January 2000 (2008) to June 2015, we examine the covariates of sudden stops in fund equity and bond flows. Our results suggest that global, contagion and domestic factors are all related to the likelihood of sudden stops. For sudden stops in equity flows, global factors play a more important role in high‐income econo...
Article
Full-text available
Using a panel fixed effects model for a large sample of countries covering 1975–2005, we test the hypothesis that income inequality caused by finance (financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises) is related to more income redistribution than inequality caused by other factors. Our results provide evidence in support of this h...
Article
Global financial institutions play an important role in channeling funds across countries and, therefore, transmitting monetary policy from one country to another. In this paper, we study whether such international transmission depends on financial institutions’ business models. In particular, we use Dutch, Spanish, and U.S. confidential supervisor...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the propagation of financial turbulence via trade, capital flows, and distance channels in the pre-crisis and Global Financial Crisis periods by modeling spillover and interdependence effects, using spatial econometric techniques. Financial turbulence is proxied by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans in a country. Spillov...
Article
Full-text available
This paper takes stock of the literature on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky-prices, incomplete markets and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows to jointly study how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect ine...
Article
Cambridge Core - Economic Theory - Sveriges Riksbank and the History of Central Banking - edited by Rodney Edvinsson
Article
Full-text available
After the global financial crisis, several central banks introduced unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE). If QE increases asset prices, but does not boost the real economy to the same extent, the relationship between credit spreads and employment growth will weaken. This study investigates this issue for the U.S. in a...
Chapter
This chapter introduces the topic of structural reform, discussing the main potential benefits of reform (such as higher growth, productivity and employment; increased resilience of economies in case of adverse shocks; and a better functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union), different types of reform (notably labour and product market reform),...
Book
This book presents a selection of contributions on the timely topic of structural reforms in Western economies, written by experts from central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and leading universities. It includes latest research on the impacts of structural reforms on the market economy, especially on the labor market, and investigates the...
Article
Full-text available
Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD. This holds both for equity flows and bond flows....
Article
We re-examine the conventional view that to be successful, fiscal adjustments should rely on spending cuts and not on tax increases. We apply the Bai-Perron structural break filter to identify fiscal adjustments and their successfulness in 20 OECD countries. Our results suggest that the composition of fiscal adjustments is not related to their succ...
Article
We examine the determinants of the occurrence and magnitude of surges of fund flows, i.e. aggregate cross-border investments in local equity and bond markets by global funds, such as mutual funds, exchange traded funds, closed-end funds and hedge funds. Our analysis, based on monthly data for 55 countries, suggests that although most global factors...
Article
Full-text available
This paper discusses whether central bank independence (CBI) has changed since the financial crisis. Central banks’ quasi-fiscal policies during and after the crisis, and macro-prudential and unconventional monetary policies, which are more redistributive than traditional monetary policy, have led to questions about the desirability of CBI. Some ev...
Article
Using a panel fixed effects model for a sample of 121 countries covering 1975-2005, we examine how financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises are related to income inequality. In contrast with most previous work, our results suggest that all finance variables increase income inequality. The level of financial development con...
Article
We examine which variables are robust in explaining cross-country differences in the real costs of banking crises. We identify 21 variables frequently used as determinants of the severity of banking crises. After a discussion of five measures based on cumulative output (or output growth) lost after a banking crisis, we examine the drivers of the re...
Article
We investigate the cyclicality of international fund flows employing correlation and regression analysis using monthly data for almost 70 countries between 1996 and 2013. International fund flows are cross-border investments by global funds. Our results suggest that contemporaneously international fund flows are counter-cyclical: fund flows are abo...
Article
Instead of empirically finding that higher levels of financial development reduce the positive impact of financial liberalization on inequality, as others and Furceri and Loungani (2015) do, we come up with the opposite result: financial development strengthens the inequality-raising impact of financial liberalization. We suggest that by, e.g., all...
Article
We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China for the 2007–2014 period. We find that these measures show different patterns, capturing different aspects of...
Article
The large and concentrated international activities of Dutch banks make the Netherlands particularly relevant for assessing the outward transmission of prudential policies. Analysis of the quarterly international claims of twenty-five Dutch banks in sixty-three countries over 2000–13 indicates that Dutch banks increase lending in countries that tig...