Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen | RUG · Department of Global Economics and Management

This paper investigates the convergence of private credit and examines how uncertainty influences this convergence process. Based on a neoclassical growth model, we show that economic uncertainty affects the speed of convergence of private credit to its steady state. Utilizing data spanning from 1950–2019 and including 159 economies, we present emp...

This paper examines whether the independence of central banks is related to income inequality and poverty. Following the 2008 financial crisis, independent central banks have been criticized that their actions contribute to an unequal income distribution. Yet, the case can also be made that such independence is orthogonal to income inequality or ca...

Using a survey among more than 2000 consumers in the Netherlands, we examine the drivers of trust in De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB). Our results suggest that consumers’ knowledge about supervision is positively associated with their trust in DNB. Assessing the fitness and propriety of top managers of financial institutions and supervising financial in...

Central banks are increasingly reaching out to the general public to motivate and explain their monetary policy actions. One major aim of this outreach is to ensure accountability and create trust; another is to guide inflation expectations. This article surveys a rapidly growing literature on central bank communication with the public, rather than...

This study explores whether the level of military expenditures is affected by the occurrence of elections. From a theoretical perspective, it is not immediately clear whether, and if so, in which direction, upcoming elections shift military expenditures. On the one hand, the incumbent may try to enhance the likelihood of being re-elected by support...

We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt...

This seminal Handbook provides a comprehensive overview of contemporary research on economic freedom, using multidisciplinary methods to assess studies of the determinants and consequences of market-oriented institutions and policies. Niclas Berggren brings together world-leading experts in their respective fields to explore the notion of economic...

This article examines the impact of labour market and product market reforms on income inequality for 25 OECD countries between 1970 and 2020, using the local projections approach and an updated narrative-based dataset of the reform indicators. Our results suggest that both types of (endogenized) market-oriented reforms increase income inequality,...

Central to the recent European Commission’s proposals for the reform of the current fiscal rules is the introduction of national medium-term fiscal structural plans. The proposed emphasis on compliance with country-specific net expenditure trajectories aimed at government debt sustainability is to be welcomed. However, several details of this expen...

This Handbook provides a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future of the European Economic and Monetary Union in its broader context. It incorporates economic, legal and political science perspectives to provide an in-depth and forward-looking scrutiny of the rationales, the main features and the shortcomings of the economic, monetar...

This Handbook provides a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future of the European Economic and Monetary Union in its broader context. It incorporates economic, legal and political science perspectives to provide an in-depth and forward-looking scrutiny of the rationales, the main features and the shortcomings of the economic, monetar...

We developed several measures to analyze the global financial cycle employing dynamic factor models and data for 25 advanced and emerging countries spanning 1980 to 2019. These measures were assessed using the similarity and synchronicity metrics proposed by Mink et al. ( Oxford Economic Papers 64, 217–236, 2012 ). The findings indicate a strong si...

This article offers a legal and economic analysis of the European Commission’s orientations for a reform of the EU economic governance framework as published in November 2022 that have been carried through in three Commission legislative proposals from April 2023. To this end, the shortcomings of the current framework as identified in the relevant...

We examine the stance of fiscal policy for 32 OECD countries from 1986 to 2023 by comparing for each country-year observation the signs of the output gap and the change in the cyclically adjusted budget balance. We find that fiscal policies are often pro-cyclical. We test possible explanations using comparative statistics for country-year observati...

We examine the dynamic impact of household borrowing on the trade balance using data from 32 developing countries and 36 developed countries over the 1980-2020 period. Our findings suggest that the impact of household borrowing on the trade balance is negative, both in the short and long run, but the effects are more pronounced in developing countr...

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest t...

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a theoretical model, we hypothesize that EPU increases the demand for hope which raises the willingness to pay for lottery tickets, resulting in higher lottery sales. We estimate a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with an Error-...

Using a sample of 7,919 banks from 30 OECD countries over 1995–2019, we examine the impact of low interest rates on banks’ net interest margins. Our results confirm a positive relationship between interest rates and interest margins, which is stronger in a low interest rate environment. In more concentrated markets, however, interest margins are le...

We investigate the impact of an exchange rate depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance, using data for 1968–2019 in a simultaneous four equations model estimated by GMM. Our results suggest that a real exchange rate depreciation decreases imports and increases exports. However, as exports are also affected by imports, a real exchange rate depreciat...

Based on the eclectic paradigm and institutional theory, we hypothesize that Chinese firms prefer to invest in host countries having a central bank with a level of independence that is comparable to that of the Chinese central bank. Using data of Chinese listed firms from 1999 to 2013, our logit models suggests that all components of central bank i...

Using cross-section, panel, and probit models for a panel of 112 countries over the 2005–2018 period, we examine the effect of natural resource rents on institutional and policy reform, proxied by the change in economic freedom measures. Our results suggest that natural resource rents have a negative and significant effect on the change in economic...

We investigate the impact of European Union (EU) integration on capital flows to prospective new EU member states. Using annual data between 1992 and 2020, our results suggest that although EU integration increased net capital flows before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it was not able to shield countries from the general decline in capital flo...

We use a survey among Dutch households to analyze trust in the European Central Bank (ECB). Our results confirm a positive association between respondents’ right-wing ideology, knowledge of the ECB, and trust in other European institutions on the one hand and trust in the ECB on the other. A novel result is that we also find that individuals who we...

Using two large-scale surveys among households, we examine the drivers of public trust in banks, insurance companies, BigTechs, and other people in the United States and the Netherlands, and analyse whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected public trust. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have much effect on trust in financial...

This paper examines the Granger causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth in China over the period 1998Q1–2019Q2, allowing for real effective exchange rate (REER) effects. As parameter instability tests indicate structural changes, we use bootstrap rolling window causality tests, which suggest that the causal nexus between capit...

Financial development may affect poverty directly and indirectly through its impact on income inequality, economic growth, and financial instability. Previous studies do not consider all these channels simultaneously. To proxy financial development, we use the ratio of private credit to GDP or an IMF composite measure. Our preferred measure for pov...

We use a randomized controlled trial among Dutch households to analyze whether communication about ECB policy instruments impacts inflation expectations and trust in the ECB. All participants in the survey receive information about the ECB’s goal, but only a subset also receives information about how the ECB tries to achieve this. Our results sugge...

This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5‐year averages to examine the impact of inflation o...

We examine whether fiscal rules’ impact on fiscal performance depends on budget transparency. Using panel data of 73 democratic countries over the 2003–2013 period, we find that fiscal rules do not improve the government budget balance in case of low budget transparency. Furthermore, our results suggest that fiscal rules make (the success of) fisca...

We examine the impact of labour and product market reforms on economic growth in 25 OECD countries between 1985-2013, and tests whether this impact is conditioned by the fiscal policy stance. Our local projection results suggest that controlling for endogeneity of reforms (by the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator) and fiscal policy i...

Trust in financial institutions is widely considered important. However, a clear overview of studies on the drivers of trust is missing. We intend to fill this gap in the literature. After discussing why trust in financial institutions is important, we turn to its measurement, where we distinguish between trust in one's own institution and trust in...

This article offers a meta-regression analysis of the literature on the drivers of financial development (FD). Our results based on 1,900 estimates suggest that institutional quality is positively correlated to both private sector credit and stock market capitalization (both as share of Gross Domestic Product). Domestic financial openness has a pos...

This paper studies the effects of globalization on the income share of the middle class. Our findings suggest that globalization, proxied by the KOF Economic Globalization Index, reduces the income share of the middle class. The income share of the poorest 20% also drops due to globalization, while that of the richest 20% increases. We find that on...

We ask whether fiscal rules constrain incumbents from using fiscal policy tools for reelection purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984–2015 period, we find that strong fiscal rules dampen political budget cycles. Our results are remarkably robust against inclusion...

We study the effects of the announcement of the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro-area countries, while controlling for other ECB statements. We find that the term premia of government bonds in euro area countries with higher sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign CDS spreads...

Based on analysis of fourteen years of data on Dutch consumers’ trust in financial institutions, we find that financially literate consumers are more likely to trust banks, insurance companies and pension funds. This result applies both to broad‐scope trust (trust in financial institutions in general) and narrow‐scope trust (trust in one’s own fina...

In recent years, the relationship between wage growth and the unemployment gap, known as the wage Phillips curve, has been puzzlingly weak: whereas the unemployment gap was low, wage growth was low as well. We consider two possible explanations for this ‘low wage growth puzzle’: (i) a structural change in the relationship between wage growth and la...

Using two large-scale surveys among households, we examine the drivers of trust in banks, insurance companies, BigTechs, and other people in the United States and the Netherlands, and analyse whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected public trust. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have much effect on trust in financial instit...

Using a decomposition of US monetary policy shocks and inflation forecasts from Consensus Economics, we find that information and monetary policy shocks move inflation expectations in opposite directions. Better performing forecasters appear less reliant on the informational content of announcements.

This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro‐area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using quarterly bank‐level data on domestic lending in both countries...

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a ran...

Using real-time data, we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter- or procyclical in a panel of 27 European Union (EU) member states over the period 2000-2015. We also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy. Our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in EU countries hav...

We estimate the effects of government spending shocks during prolonged episodes of low interest rates, which we consider as proxy for the effective lower bound (ELB). Using a panel VAR model for 17 advanced countries, we find that both the government consumption and investment multipliers are significantly higher, and exceed unity, when interest ra...

Relying on a cost-push input-output model for China, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through to both domestic prices and export prices at the industry level. Our empirical results indicate that the decline of the RMB price in the processing exports sector in response to an RMB appreciation is larger than that in the non-processing exports sector...

Using a newly constructed database for 26 countries over 2000-2014, we analyze cross-country and within-country differences in mortgage arrears. We find that restrictive macro-prudential policies, in particular lower regulatory loan-to-value ratios, are significantly associated with a lower share of mortgage arrears in total residential debt. Likew...

Using annual data for 60 countries over 1980–2014, we study the drivers of fiscal adjustments, expansions, and their duration. In contrast to most previous studies, the identification of these fiscal events relies on breaks in their data generating process. Our findings suggest that a few political and institutional variables play a role in determi...

Written for undergraduate and graduate students of finance, economics and business, the fourth edition of Financial Markets and Institutions provides a fresh analysis of the European financial system. Combining theory, data and policy, this successful textbook examines and explains financial markets, financial infrastructures, financial institution...

We investigate the effects of the announcement and the disclosure of the clarification, methodology, and outcomes of the U.S. banking stress tests on banks’ equity prices, credit risk, systematic risk, and systemic risk. We find evidence that stress tests have moved stock and credit markets following the disclosure of stress test results. We also f...

Cambridge Core - Economic Theory - Financial Markets and Institutions - by Jakob de Haan

Simulation results of our theoretical model for banks’ risk-taking behavior suggest that during booms banks have high non-core liabilities, high leverage and few liquid assets, while the reverse holds during busts. We investigate the predictive power of these bank balance sheet variables for future banking crises using monthly data of 147 developin...

During the past decades, central bank independence has been increased in a large number of countries. However, even an independent central bank does not operate in a political vacuum. For instance, governments generally appoint political allies, presuming that consequently the central bank will follow policies that are in line with the governments’...

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a ran...

Using a fixed effects panel model on data for 110 countries over the period 2000–2011, we confirm previous findings that financial stability transparency increases the degree of financial stability in a country. However, our results also suggest that financial stability transparency is significantly negatively related to banks’ non-performing loans...

The role of government involvement in firms has received a lot of attention in the last few decades. Government involvement could result in a ‘supporting hand’ and a ‘grabbing hand’. This paper investigates how government control influences the financial performance of Chinese listed firms. We use a panel data set of firms publicly traded on the st...

This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using bank-level data on domestic lending in both countries during th...

Economists have for some time recognized that institutions play an important role in explaining differences in the wealth and poverty of nations. But whereas most previous research focuses either on economic or political institutions, this book offers an excellent framework explaining how both economic and political institutions drive long-run econ...

We analyze the relationship between ECB monetary policy and prudential policies in the host country and international lending by Dutch insurers and pension funds, using confidential institution-specific data. Our results suggest that insurers and pension funds do not significantly change their foreign lending in response to ECB policy changes, prox...

This paper tests Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) using LIBOR rates for six major international currencies for the period January 2001 to December 2008. We find that UIP generally holds over a short-term (above 5-months) horizon for individual as well as groups of currencies. Our results suggest that it is important to consider the cross-correl...