Jaïr van der Lijn

Jaïr van der Lijn
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute · Peace Operations and Conflict Management

PhD

About

74
Publications
12,420
Reads
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289
Citations
Citations since 2017
17 Research Items
204 Citations
2017201820192020202120222023010203040
2017201820192020202120222023010203040
2017201820192020202120222023010203040
2017201820192020202120222023010203040
Additional affiliations
September 2007 - January 2013
January 2000 - March 2013
Radboud University
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)

Publications

Publications (74)
Book
Full-text available
The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) of the African Union (AU) is facing an uncertain future: Traditional security threats in Africa are intensifying and new challenges arise. At the same time, the external environment is changing rapidly, an unprecedented crisis of multilateralism is evolving while new state and non-state actors have...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter describes general developments in 2019 in armed conflicts and peace processes, and global and regional trends and developments in multilateral peace operations.
Book
Full-text available
This research explores the underlying assumptions of interventions by international non-governmental organizations and United Nations peace operations in the provision of security and justice, and compares them with the perceptions and experiences of local population in the Central African Republic and in South Kivu province, eastern Democratic Rep...
Technical Report
Full-text available
External stabilization interventions often have unforeseen impacts on local dynamics in terms of state legitimacy and inclusivity. This affects the prospects for ‘legitimate stability’. The process through which such external interventions and local actors interact and produce new, often unplanned, outcomes for good or ill is called ‘friction’.1 Th...
Book
Full-text available
This policy report unpacks the similarities and differences between the aims and objectives of external intervenors, on the one hand, and the desires of local communities and key stakeholders, on the other. It brings together the findings of two complementary policy studies—Securing Legitimate Stability in CAR: External Assumptions and Local Perspe...
Book
Full-text available
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is undergoing its first peaceful transfer of power at the same time as a strategic review of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) is being conducted. It is a pivotal time to be reflecting on the best ways forward. This policy study uses bo...
Book
Full-text available
The third phase of the New Geopolitics of Peace Operations (NGP) initiative seeks to enhance understanding of how peace operations interact with non-traditional security challenges such as terrorism and violent extremism, irregular migration, piracy, organized crime and environmental degradation. It aims to identify the various perceptions, positio...
Book
Full-text available
The process of European integration that resulted in the European Union (EU) is often perceived as a ‘peace project’. The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) regulated under one central authority the production of two resources that were essential for warfare. And in 2012 the Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the EU, arguing tha...
Book
Full-text available
This report assesses the extent to which the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is achieving its current strategic objectives, and the impact the Mission has had on the political and security situation in Mali. Until 2016 MINUSMA managed to strengthen stability in northern Mali, decreasing the number of civilian...
Chapter
Full-text available
In contrast to 2016, 2017 was a hectic year for peace operations, both in the field and at headquarters, particularly for the United Nations. The fall in the total number of personnel deployed in peace operations, which began in 2012 with the drawdown of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), continued in 2017. The total number of pers...
Book
Full-text available
Multilateral peace operations are increasingly confronting a set of interrelated and mutually reinforcing security challenges that are relatively new to them, that do not respect borders, and that have causes and effects which cut right across the international security, peacebuilding and development agendas. As a result, the New Geopolitics of Pea...
Book
Full-text available
Policy makers trying to grapple with and prepare for Syria’s future are facing a complex and difficult task. How will the future evolve? What are possible policy responses? These scenarios aim to answer these questions. It identifies policy options for the future of Syria, using four potential scenarios in 2019. These scenarios are built on the b...
Book
Full-text available
UN peace operations increasingly find themselves deployed in countries where there is no peace to keep, where insurgencies are ongoing, and where peacekeepers face asymmetric threats. In these environments, UN peace operations are asked to perform increasingly challenging tasks to assist governments and to stabilise countries. This requires adequat...
Book
Full-text available
descriptionThis paper presents four alternative global futures for the monopoly on the legitimate use of force with the aim of stimulating discussion and assisting policy planning. They are not predictions, but aim to allow policy makers to embrace uncertainty and plan for the future. These futures were built on two key uncertainties: (1) Will secu...
Book
Full-text available
Since the start of the migration crisis in 2015, the European Union (EU) has focused its political and financial attention on restricting irregular migration flows to the EU from amongst others the Sahel-Lake Chad-Libya region—Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Gambia, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal.This paper aims to provide a quic...
Book
Full-text available
Africa has increasingly become the focus of peace operations and, by extension, the main arena for new developments and approaches in them. The New Geopolitics of Peace Operations II initiative aims to stimulate dialogue on international cooperation in peace operations in Africa. Largely based on six dialogue meetings with participants from differe...
Research
Full-text available
The current security situation in the world, and specifically the zones of instability that surround and affect Europe, provide the Netherlands with many good reasons to contribute police capabilities to international crisis management missions. The EU, UN and OSCE struggle with both quantitative and qualitative personnel shortages when it comes to...
Book
This book aims to understand the processes and outcomes that arise from frictional encounters in peacebuilding, when global and local forces meet. Building a sustainable peace after violent conflict is a process that entails competing ideas, political contestation and transformation of power relations. This volume develops the concept of ‘friction...
Chapter
Full-text available
The year 2015 was one of consolidation regarding peace operations. The number of operations decreased for the first time since 2010: there were 61 multilateral peace operations active in 2015, two fewer than in 2014. Together these operations deployed 162 703 personnel, slightly more than in the previous year. This increase constituted a reversal o...
Book
Full-text available
It is often claimed that contemporary United Nations peace operations perform their functions in increasingly dangerous environments and are therefore more likely to suffer casualties than in previous years. Yet the data on deaths among UN peacekeepers between 1990 and 2015 indicates that fatalities have not become more frequent, neither in absolut...
Book
Full-text available
The global security environment is changing as a result of globalization and non- traditional security challenges such as international jihadism and international organized crime. At the same time, the power balance and security relations between established and emerging powers underpinning the contemporary arrangements for conflict management, app...
Article
Since 2000, international organisations such as the UN, NATO and the EU, but also countries, have started to apply what has been called the comprehensive approach to crisis management. This article unpacks this comprehensive approach implemented by the Dutch in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. It first borrows and expands a conceptual framework devel...
Book
Full-text available
International Peace Operations face a multitude of challenges. Recent crises and conflicts suggest that the demand to deploy peace operations will probably not decrease for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the international balance of power is shifting due to the emergence of new powers. Based on insights of a two-year dialogue series of F...
Book
Full-text available
Over the past two decades, personnel contributions from European and North America countries to United Nations peacekeeping operations and to missions deployed in Africa have reduced significantly. This is partly explained by the common assumption in Western governments and security establishments that missions in Africa are more dangerous than mis...
Book
Full-text available
After the departure of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), delivering development assistance in Afghanistan can return to common practices and procedures used in other insecure areas such as Somalia and Sudan (and already in areas of Afghanistan). This means that the international community must develop a civilian entry strategy and...
Article
What happens when global meets local? This special issue focuses on the dynamic interaction between externally conceived plans for peacebuilding intervention and local people's own approaches and strategies. The notion of ‘friction’ provides a perspective that acknowledges the unpredictable and unexpected nature of this interaction. The ‘hybrid’ ou...
Article
A variety of international actors, such as the UN and NATO, intervene in complex environments, such as Afghanistan. In order to overcome complexity and for ‘us’ to deal with ‘them’, constructs such as ‘the insurgents’ and ‘the government’ are used to help ‘our’ understanding and to simplify the picture. Subsequently, these constructs become subject...
Book
Full-text available
In this Clingendael Report Jaïr van der Lijn presents six scenarios for Afghanistan's uncertain future after 2014, when ISAF will have left and the responsibility for the country's security will be in the hands of the ANSF. The scenarios are built on the basis of three key uncertainties: Will Governance in Afghanistan become relatively strong or...
Book
Full-text available
The world is at a crossroads, with many old certainties crumbling away. It is therefore important to look ahead in order to anticipate potential changes. The aim of this scenarios paper is to assess how peace operations may develop in the future and what this could mean for armed forces. It concludes with recommendations to assist the EU member sta...
Book
Full-text available
Will Assad stay or go? Will the future intensity of the conflict be high, or low? Three scenarios that enable a broad view of possible Syrian futures: 1) The Russian way: a political solution including the departure of Bashar al-Assad; 2) The Free Syrian Army's way: a limited international military intervention resulting in the ousting of Assad; a...
Book
Full-text available
The world is becoming more uncertain. Cooperation between states is increasingly strained. Traditional state actors are losing ground to non-state actors. The West is becoming less dominant. The governance of the world remains unresolved. These are a few of the conclusions of the Clingendael Strategic Monitor which was published Monday 12 March 201...
Chapter
After the genocide in 1994 Rwanda faced a disastrous situation. About 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu had been slaughtered and millions of Rwandans had fled their country or became internally displaced persons (IDP). The government was in shambles. The former government had taken all the foreign reserves. Public enterprises, the administrative syst...
Book
Full-text available
This report about the Dutch comprehensive approach is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Clingendael Institute, commissioned by Cordaid. The views and analysis put forward are entirely those of the author in his private or professional capacity and should not be attributed to Cordaid, the involved research institutions or any agencies or...
Article
This article clusters future threats as foreseen in security foresight studies made by security-related institutions, organizations and think-tanks from around the globe and adds to each cluster the knowledge and views from the literature. Many security foresight studies foresee increasing economic and politico-military regionalization. The power b...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to portray four scenarios for the future of Sudan in the year 2012. On the basis of these scenarios it aims to draw a number of conclusions on the future of Sudan and the way ahead. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the Shell methodology for scenario building and is based on five scenario workshops hel...
Article
Some UN peacekeeping operations are generally regarded as a success, e.g. El Salvador, Sierra Leone and Mozambique. Other missions are seen as obvious failures, such as Rwanda and Somalia. Not only do these mixed results justify research into the question “do peacekeeping operations actually contribute to durable peace?”, but both academic scholars...
Book
Full-text available
The future of Sudan is uncertain. At present the international community, governments, international organisations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and making sure an election and referendum take place. Consequently, little time is given to thinking strategically...
Article
Full-text available
In dit artikel worden de toekomstige bedreigingen zoals voorzien in de verschil- lende toekomstverkenningen aan een meta-analyse onderworpen. Hiertoe worden de beschreven bedreigingen allereerst geclusterd en vervolgens voor ieder cluster met wetenschappelijke inzichten uit de literatuur aangevuld. De clusters zijn on- derverdeeld in twee groepen:...
Article
Full-text available
Jaïr van der Lijn & Edwin Bakker Op 31 maart 2009 vond in Den Haag de International Conference on Afghanistan; a Comprehensive Strategy in a Regional Context plaats. Deze ministeriële conferentie bracht meer dan zeventig landen en circa tien internationale organisaties bijeen om te praten over de stabiliteit en wederopbouw van Afghanistan. De timin...
Article
In spite of the fact that UN peacekeeping operations are a relative new field for scholarly re-search, the literature on the subject has grown into a substantial body. This article distils from this body of scholarly literature eleven clusters of factors for success and failure for UN peacekeeping operations in general and tests these on four case...
Book
Full-text available
Proefschrift Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen. Met index, lit. opg. - Met samenvatting in het Nederlands.

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