Jaime Ribalaygua

• President at Fundación para la Investigación del Clima

Wildfires pose an increasing threat to society, requiring appropriate approaches to understand the components of risk to design effective mitigation strategies. Under this premise, we present a comprehensive methodology to assess the probability of ignition of human-caused wildfires, one of the key drivers of risk. Our approach combines historical...

HiDALGO2 focuses on the development of high-fidelity simulations to address critical global challenges. This document builds on the foundations of D5.3 [1] by highlighting the research advances achieved within the HiDALGO2 project between M11 and M23 across the five pilot applications: Urban Air Project (UAP), Urban Buildings (UB), Renewable Energy...

The climate over Europe has been recorded to be hotter, drier, and more fire-prone over the last decade than ever before, leading to concerns about how climate change will alter fire weather in the future. A typical measure to estimate fire weather severity based on climate is the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). In this study, we used high-resol...

In pursuit of addressing global challenges and to provide stakeholders and decision makers tools that allow to mitigate tragic consequences, HiDALGO2 has embarked on a mission to integrate, implement, and optimize selected environmental use cases using advanced simulation systems. These endeavours, owing to their intricacy, require the utilization...

Climate change effects on subdaily rainfall (from 5 min to a few hours) can hardly be measured in mid‐latitude climates due to the high natural variability of the precipitation patterns and their effects on local topography. The goal of this study was to obtain change projections of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, for up to 2‐h precipita...

Background Lightning is the most common origin of natural fires, being strongly linked to specific synoptic conditions associated with atmospheric instability, such as dry thunderstorms; dry fuels are required for ignition to take place and for subsequent propagation. Aims The aim was to predict the daily probability of ignition by exploiting a la...

O período entre 2018 e 2022 mostrou-nos que o problema dos incêndios à escala global não está a diminuir, antes pelo contrário. Parece que as consequências das alterações climáticas já estão a afectar a ocorrência de incêndios florestais em várias partes do Mundo, de uma forma que só esperaríamos que acontecesse vários anos mais tarde. Em muitos pa...

A detailed analysis of distribution shifts in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. is provided across time for Izta-Popo National Park (México). Combining satellite images, species distribution models, and connectivity analysis we disentangled the effect of climate change and anthropogenic land use on the habitat availability. Twenty-four Maxent habitat suitabil...

Presentation made during the UHINAK IV the Cross-border conference on climate and coastal change that took place in Irún (Spain) during the days 4-5 of November 2020. The abstract works on a comparative study between the ECCLIPSE and CRISI-ADAPT II European projects regarding their respective local future climate scenarios in the Port of Valencia....

Dynamical climate models present an initialization problem due to the poor availability of deep oceanic data, which is required for the model assimilation process. In this sense, teleconnection indices, defined from spatial and temporal patterns of climatic variables, are conceived as useful tools to complement them. In this work, the near‐term cli...

The spatial dependence of meteorological variables is crucial for many impacts, for example, droughts, floods, river flows, energy demand, and crop yield. There is thus a need to understand how well it is represented in downscaling (DS) products. Within the COST Action VALUE, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatial variability in the...

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where...

VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven r...

Supplement containing the detailed results from the simulations: expected relative seasonal changes in daily absolute precipitation (mm/day) and daily mean temperature (ºC) throughout the XXI century per meteorological station and each of the climate change studied scenarios, predicted daily mean air temperature; predicted daily mean streamflow, an...

Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a...

Climate change affects aquatic ecosystems altering temperature and precipitation patterns, and the rear edge of the distribution of cold-water species is especially sensitive to them. The main goal was to predict in detail how change in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (brown trout,...

RESUMEN La eficiencia en el uso de los recursos naturales es una prioridad para garantizar la sostenibilidad económica y ambiental de la agricultura. El proyecto Riego-Asesor analiza las relaciones entre la variabilidad climática y las necesidades requeridas en la gestión hídrica agrícola para así diseñar una batería de buenas prácticas de riego en...

Streamflow and temperature regimes are well-known to influence on the availability of suitable physical habitat for instream biological communities. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have predicted significant changes in timing and geographic distribution of precipitation and atmospheric temperature for the ongoing century. However, differences in...

This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments we...

This study is aimed at forecasting the changes in the suitability of brown trout habitat (Salmo trutta L.), caused by alterations in the stream temperature and the flow regime under climate change scenarios. The stream temperature and instantaneous flow in several streams in Central Spain were modelled from daily temperature and precipitation data....

Análisis de la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático de bosques de montaña en Latinoamérica: un punto de partida para su gestión adaptativa

The Mediterranean coast of Spain often experiences intense rainfall, sometimes reaching remarkable amounts of more than 400 mm in one day. The aim of this work is to study possible changes of extreme precipitation in Spain for this century, simulated from several Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Eighteen climate...

Water temperature is a central issue in freshwater ecology because it influences on physical, chemical and biological processes and, therefore, on organisms that live all the time or part of this in water. Therefore, climate change might drive the availability of suitable habitat for many fish species including brown trout. This paper deals with th...

Water temperature is a central issue in freshwater ecology because it influences on physical, chemical and biological processes and, therefore, on organisms that live all the time or part of this in water. Therefore, climate change might drive the availability of suitable habitat for many fish species including brown trout. This paper deals with th...

The evaluation of the possible climate change influence on extreme precipitation is very interesting in the Mediterranean area due to the usual and characteristic high intensities of its rainfall pattern. This analysis is also very important in urban zones, especially those densely populated with complex sewer systems, generally vulnerable to torre...

This study describes a two-step analogue statistical downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation. The first step is an analogue approach: the “n” days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the “n” most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for pr...

By applying a two-step statistical downscaling technique to four climate models under different future emission scenarios, we produced future projections of the daily precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Spanish region of Aragón. The reliability of the downscaling technique was assessed by a verification process involving...

1) Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, Madrid, , (3) Facultad de Ciencias. Universidad San Jorge. Zaragoza, Spain Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation...

The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) is widely recognised as one of the world's leading institutions concerned with the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change. CRU is part of the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia in Norwich. The aim of the Climatic Research Unit is to improve scientific understanding in three...

Tenerife, the largest of the seven Canary Islands, has the highest elevation of Spain, the Teide volcano (3.718 m. – the third largest volcano in the world from its base). Its climate is hard influenced both for its tropical latitude and for its exposition to the Trade Winds (alisios), which blow from the northeast for almost the whole year. These...

Heavy and sudden rainfalls regularly affect the Mediterranean area, so a great number of people and buildings are exposed to the risk of rain-generated floods. Climate change is expected to modify this risk and, in the case that extreme rainfalls increase in frequencies and intensity, this could result in important damages, particularly in urban ar...

1] This paper compares six statistical downscaling models (SDMs) and three regional climate models (RCMs) in their ability to downscale daily precipitation statistics in a region of complex topography. The six SDMs include regression methods, weather typing methods, a conditional weather generator, and a bias correction and spatial disaggregation a...