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Publications (151)
L’une des conséquences du vieillissement démographique est le ralentissement de la croissance du nombre des actifs sur le marché du travail, voire même une décroissance. Il apparaît dès lors tout indiqué d’adopter des politiques qui inciteraient les travailleurs à repousser le moment de leur retraite, d’autant plus que l’espérance de vie ne cesse d...
A large proportion of long-term care needs in Canada is provided in care institutions. The cost of this long- term care provision is already high and is likely to rise even more rapidly with the aging of the large baby boom cohorts. Meanwhile governments are increasingly attempting to contain these costs by encouraging home care support. In this co...
The structure of causes of death in Canada has been changing since the onset of the “cardiovascular revolution.” While mortality due to cardiovascular diseases has been declining, mortality due to other causes of death, such as cancers and Alzheimer’s disease has been increasing. Our research investigates how these changes have re-modeled life expe...
Demographic aging is a modern phenomenon: never before has there been a society that was so old, although within societies there were some old individuals. As of now, all societies will become old because they control both their mortality and fertility; they will be characterized by demographic transition and as a result, demographic aging. This ch...
Le financement des regimes publics de retraite est au coeur des preoccupations reliees au vieillissement demographique. Confrontes a cette problematique, plusieurs pays ont d’ailleurs releve l’âge ouvrant droit a une pleine rente de retraite. Toutefois, on note un report relativement important de l’âge effectif de la retraite au Canada depuis le mi...
Le vieillissement des baby-boomers est le sujet de l’heure dans le monde industrialise. C’est le cas en particulier au Quebec, ou le nombre de naissances est passe d’environ 80 000 au debut des annees 1940 a pres de 145 000 en 1959, pour retomber a environ 95 000 au milieu des annees 1970. Certains auteurs ont qualifie ce phenomene de « Pig in the...
Cet article s’intéresse aux déterminants individuels associés à la variation des coûts publics des soins de santé, chez les Québécois de 65 ans et plus vivant en ménage privé et avec incapacités. À l’aide de modèles de régression, la variation des coûts pour la consultation de professionnels de la santé (CCPS) et pour la consommation de produits ph...
RÉSUMÉ
Le vieillissement de la population est l’enjeux démographique du XXI ième siècle et plusieurs indicateurs sont utilisés pour en mesurer le niveau et les tendances. Dans Science (2010), Sanderson et Scherbov ont suggéré des améliorations à la mesure du rapport de dépendance des personnes âgées. Ils ont identifié plusieurs limites à l’utilisat...
As the first of the Boomers reach age 65 in 2011, it is of great interest to identify trends in disability to better predict future needs and resources within community care. This paper uses data from four national datasets to investigate trends in disability rates and examine socio-demographic characteristics associated with disability. Results sh...
Based on data from the 2002 General Social Survey, this research presents a global portrait of unmet needs for home care services among Canadians aged 65 and over. It shows that 26.8% of seniors need assistance, accounting for approximately 1,024,000 individuals. Among these, just over 180,000 (17.7%) had at least one unmet need. In nearly half the...
The oncoming retirement of baby boomers has governments worried. Will individual baby boomers demonstrate the ability to prepare financially for their retirement? Well-being in retirement depends largely on financial preparedness during working life. Those baby boomers who are the most vulnerable at the end of their working lives are more likely to...
The oncoming retirement of baby boomers has governments worried. Will individual baby boomers demonstrate the ability to prepare financially for their retirement? Well-being in retirement depends largely on financial preparedness during working life. Those baby boomers who are the most vulnerable at the end of their working lives are more likely to...
The evolution of family networks of older men and women in Canada is projected for the coming decades. By disaggregating help coming from informal sources, in certain family networks, the contribution of adult children is equal to that of a spouse. Given the reduced availability of adult children in future decades, the implications for the future d...
In retirement, the economic well-being of the retirees depends in good part on the financial provisions they made when they were in the labour force. It is therefore interesting to assess how solid the economic situation is of those who are just about to retire, especially when these are the baby-boom cohorts who, according to some interpretations,...
Employee confidence about achieving a comfortable life in retirement has remained low since the financial crisis, despite the rebound of stock market prices and other signs of economic recovery. An aspect of this fall in confidence is the growing proportion of workers who realize that they face a complex challenge in attempting to secure a good lif...
As for more than ten years, my name has been many time associated with Statistics Canada’s LifePaths Microsimulation Model, I was asked to give my thoughts on it at the Seminar “On the Varieties of Computer Modeling: A Toolbox Approach to Analysis and Decision Making” organized by the Population Change and Lifecourse Strategic Knowledge Cluster in...
The first aim of this document was to produce the most complete list as possible of the microsimulation models developed in Canada in the last two decades. Morever, information was provided about the people or entities that participated in their production, as well as about the researchers who used them and the papers in which they were mentioned....
Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vi...
This paper is a synthesis of research on recruitment and retention challenges for home support workers (HSWs) in Canada. Participants: Home support workers (HSWs) provide needed support with personal care and daily activities to older persons living in the community.
Literature (peer reviewed, government, and non-government documents) published in...
RÉSUMÉ
L’ensemble des sociétés occidentales connaissent actuellement une croissance considérable des personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus. De nombreux changements familiaux affectant ces sociétés, il est pertinent de se demander qui prendra en charge les aînés de demain en cas de besoin d’assistance. Cet article compare les projections démographiques...
The Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) was launched in 2000 by the Population Activities Unit of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). Centred on family-building and relationships between generations and between genders, the project involves two main components : establishing a three-wave longitudinal survey of approximatel...
Résumé
À l’aide de résultats issus du modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, développé par Statistique Canada, nous estimons l’évolution de la situation matrimoniale et de la proportion d’individus sans enfant survivant des futures personnes âgées selon l’âge et le sexe pour le Canada en 2001 et 2031. Ces projections permettent de montrer comment l’é...
The link between values and demographic behavior is presented in the French context of grandparenthood. By their status, grandparents are undoubtedly considered as family experimented seniors, as a result of successive marital and family transitions. Could family values of grandparents be stronger because of their grandparenthood status? The follow...
Depuis 1941, on a observe au Canada des variations importantes du niveau de la fecondite et la tendance est souvent illustree par les fluctuations du taux de natalite. Afin de mieux interpreter ces fluctuations, une analyse des principales composantes du taux de natalite s'avere necessaire: la distribution par age de la population feminine (mariee...
Résumé
Le vieillissement des individus, ainsi que celui des populations, doit être vu comme un phénomène très positif. L’arrivée des baby-boomers dans les âges de la retraite et de la vieillesse devra cependant être bien prise en main pour éviter des dérapages. À partir de l’exemple du Québec, on décrira comment faire pour éviter certains effets pe...
The part of the province of Quebec lying north of the 55th parallel is home to over 4,000 Inuit. Infant mortality is still very high in this region due to difficult living conditions. A critical re‐examination of the data has revealed a bias stemming from high undercoverage which has helped create a misleading impression of the infant mortality sit...
LIEBERSON, STANLEY, Language and Ethnic Relations in Canada
MAHEU, ROBERT, Les francophones du Canada, 1941–1991
JOY, RICHARD J., Languages in Conflict: the Canadian Experience
Le lien entre valeurs et comportements démographiques est ici présenté dans le contexte de la grand-parentalité en France. De par leur statut, les grands-parents font, sans contredit, figure de « séniors » expérimentés dans le domaine de la famille, pour avoir vécu à la fois des transitions conjugales et familiales. Leurs valeurs familiales pourrai...
Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vi...
The activity cycle made up of three clearly identifiable stages (education, employment, retirement) characteristic of industrial societies is, nowadays, less clearly defined. The establishment of a stable working career in early adulthood is taking place later and later, often preceded by a transition period of uncertain social status. A similar ph...
The pension and health systems in many countries are in crisis. This much-heralded crisis is attributed to the worrying trend of the dependency ratio. The dependency ratio that concerns us here is the number of pensioners to the number of workers contributing to the pension and healthcare systems. This ratio is increasing, not only because life exp...
Recent decades have been marked by major changes in family life, transformations which started with the decline in the desire to have children and in their actual numbers in the 1960s. The increase in divorce rates and in marital instability soon emerged afterwards. The increase in the number of unmarried couples as a mode of couple formation and a...
Age at retirement is one of the key parameters of the intergenerational social contract that has been progressively set in place by developed countries, and its adaptation to the new demographic conditions of this century is at the center of the pension debate. This debate goes further than the adaptation of pension rules stricto sensu. The main im...
Given the foreseeable increase in demographic ageing, it is alleged by some that the current system of public solidarity is not equitable for future generations, who may be unable to benefit from a system as generous and wellarticulated as the one which exists today. They argue that current social spending should be reduced to avoid imposing an exc...
Spanish grandmothers are playing nowadays a fundamental role in the rapid extension of women's economic activity. Social policies focusing on reconciling family and employment are scarce and few women work part time. In this context, the help of grandmothers taking care of their grandchildren is a form of solidarity between generations that is maki...
Everybody knows that, in the developed countries, the demographic context has dramatically changed-and will continue to change in the future-with the increase in life expectancy, the persistence of low fertility and the transformation of the family structure. All the developed countries are confronted by the ageing of their society. Ceteris paribus...
March 13, 2003 date last saved: 03/13/03 9:41 PM date last printed: 03/13/03 8:29 AM Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview Ronald Lee Demography and Economics University of California 2232 Piedmont Ave. Berkeley, CA 94720 rlee@demog.berkeley.edu This paper was prepared for Rencontres Sauvy, at Villa Mondrag...
With regard to the relationship between grandparents and grandchildren, within the space of 15 years the Quebec legislator adopted provisions that at first glance appear contradictory. Firstly, under the family law reform of 1980, a provision recognising the special nature of the relationship between grandparents and grandchildren was introduced in...
Aging of baby boomers and increasing life expectancy will accelerate growth in the number of elderly people over the next three decades. Meeting the required needs of elderly people in assistance to perform activities of daily living will be a major concern of Canadian public policy in the future. Data from two Canadian national surveys were used t...
This paper projects annual growth rates between 2001 and 2031 in the need for informal and formal support among elderly Canadians with disabilities. The paper also discusses the policy implications of the increasing demand for informal caregivers. Using Statistics Canada's LifePaths microsimulation model, these projections incorporate disability ra...
Since 2006, baby-boomers are beginning to reach the age of 60. This historic milestone forecasts serious challenges for our societies. In particular, the financial security of future pensioners constitutes an important issue. The present study will attempt to assess the financial preparation for retirement of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomer...
Recent labour market developments in the context of population ageing have generated many changes concerning sources of retirement income. More precisely, this paper, which is based on two Statistics Canada surveys (Survey of Consumer Finances and Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics,) will look at the processes of diversification and privatisation...
In the forthcoming decades, population aging will generate major challenges in our society. In particular, the financial security of future pensioners constitutes an important issue. This paper will examine the financial planning for retirement of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomers born in 1946-1955, who will retire in the forthcoming years,...
English
Taking the diversity and the convergence of demographic transitions intoconsideration, it is hypothesized that population aging that occurs in developed countries anddeveloping countries will reflect diversity, but will also show some convergence. In order to testthis hypothesis, the present study compares the population aging experiences...
Demographic Foundations of the Quebec Workforce of Tomorrow
A long-term view of Quebec’s demographic structures reveals that our society is currently experiencing a very favourable situation in terms of its level of demographic dependence. Indeed, the ratio of people between the ages of 20 and 64 to so-called dependent people, which includes childr...
Résumé
Pendant les trois dernières décennies du XX e siècle, la Chine, par ses politiques de contrôle des naissances, et le Canada, par ses politiques d’immigration, sont apparus comme de grands laboratoires sociaux de démographie du vieillissement. Quels ont été les résultats de ces expériences ? Des simulations permettent ici de comparer de façon...
L'obiettivo di questo studio è descrivere le sistemazioni abitative degli anziani nei primi anni '90 in Canada, Finlandia, Svizzera e Regno Unito. Vengono utilizzati dati censuari originali messi insieme grazie a un progetto internazionale della Population Activity Unit dell'UNECE. Il database contiene dettagliate informazioni sulle relazioni tra i...
This article looks at the survival strategies used in traditional societies by households that were greatly disrupted by the death of the father, usually their principal provider. Research is based on data from two parish censuses (1716 and 1744) of the city of Québec that describe the composition of urban households. Data from the Registre de la P...
RÉSUMÉ
Dans un contexte de plus en plus marqué par la désinstitutionnalisation des personnes âgées et le contrôle des dépenses reliées au domaine de la santé, nos sociétés mettent davantage à contribution le réseau social des individus en perte d'autonomie. Or ce réseau social est en pleine mutation. Avant de s'interroger sur sa disponibilité et sa...
Measures of healthy life expectancy have been developed over the last thirty years to evaluate the quality of life of an increasing life expectancy. These measures are usually accounting for prevalence rates of either disability or physical dependence in performing everyday activities. Although they allow for a better assessment of quality of life,...
The history of family names is directly linked to the history of populations. In the French-Canadian case, this history has two main features: a small number of founding members of a population, and a rapid increase due to a high reproduction rate, without any significant new influx of immigrants. Other factors intervened in the success of certain...
If many efforts have been undertaken by the scientific community in the last years to better understand the interactions between seniors and their informal support network, understanding of their reciprocal relations remain incomplete. In a context of 'young' and 'old,' where the later group is becoming larger, coexist longer because of increased l...
This article examines some of the health and socio-demographic factors associated with living in long-term health care facilities rather than in private households, for elderly people with various levels of disability.
The data are from the 1996/97 National Population Health Survey conducted by Statistics Canada. Data from a sample of 1,711 people...
If many efforts have been undertaken by the scientific community in the last years to better understand the interactions between seniors and their informal support network, understanding of their reciprocal relations remain incomplete. In a context of “young” and “old,” where the later group is becoming larger, coexist longer because of increased l...
We used a population-based historical French Canadian database to examine the effects of mother's birth season on sex ratio at birth. Non-first births in the database (n = 127,658) were analyzed for their sex, parish size (2 large parishes of Montreal and Quebec or the other smaller parishes), time period (births up to 1719 or those from 1720), mat...
We investigated population-based vital records of the seventeenth and eighteenth century French Canadian population to assess the effects of marriage season on the outcome of the first births under natural fertility conditions (n = 21,698 marriages). Promptness of the first successful conception after marriage differed according to marriage season;...
As the 21st Century nears, industrialized countries have reached very low levels of mortality and fertility. This phenomenon is characterised by demographers as the last stage of the demographic transition theory. These almost universal levels were reached, for the most part, thanks to technological advances that only a century ago were not imagina...
The aim of this paper is to explore mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century from a demographic perspective. During the nineteenth century, there was excess urban mortality in various countries; in order to identify such mortality differentials, we compared mortality indicators for the province of Quebec and then for the urban areas of Mon...
PIP:
"Although missing some information on former smokers, data from the 1992-1993 Enquete sociale et de sante (Social and Health Survey) enable us to assess trends since the 1987 Sante Quebec (Quebec Health) survey. Our results show that for young people born between 1965 and 1970, for whom some of the information had to be estimated, the trend to...
PIP:
"The current aging of Quebec's population is expected to intensify in the beginning of the next century. By 2031, seniors could represent 25 percent of the total population, or nearly two million individuals. It is vital that policy-makers more fully grasp the multiple aspects of this much-feared eventuality. To this end, the aim of this study...
Using the biographies of nearly 10,000 children born in New France during the seventeenth century, this study looks at the phenomenon of single parenthood from the children's point of view. Since separation and divorce were uncommon during this period, marital disruptions only occurred through the death of one of the partners. In New France, half o...
This paper examines the effect of cohort heterogeneity upon the potential needs for assistance in ADL and IADL of an aging population. Variables that are important predictors of the differentiating pattern of perceived needs in the older population are subject to on-going changes as a result of cohort differentiation and cohort succession in the ol...
RÉSUMÉ
La prévalence du tabagisme chez les jeunes reste un sujet d'actualité, même si les moyens pour en suivre l'évolution de façon scientifique ne sont en général pas disponibles. Les données de l'Enquête sociale et de santé de 1992-1993, malgré certaines lacunes par rapport aux anciens fumeurs, nous permet de suivre les tendances depuis l'Enquêt...
RÉSUMÉ
Le vieillissement démographique qui affecte actuellement le Québec est appelé à s'intensifier au début du prochain siècle. Les personnes âgées pourraient représenter 25 pour cent de la population totale en 2031, soit près de deux millions d'individus. Il est essentiel, pour les planificateurs, de saisir au mieux les diverses dimensions de ce...
This paper examines the effect of cohort heterogeneity upon the potential needs for assistance in ADL and IADL of an aging population. Variables that are important predictors of the differentiating pattern of perceived needs in the older population are subject to on-going changes as a result of cohort differentiation and cohort succession in the ol...
Cigarette smoking is the No. 1 cause of premature death among Canadians. However, tobacco consumption dropped by 35% in Canada during the 1980s.
Using data collected during a Quebec health survey, we evaluated the prevalences of tobacco use by birth cohort. Since mortality has been decreasing for both sexes, we computed gender-specific cohort morta...
To study whether apparently more fecund women having delivered twins at first birth have traits of higher twin-proneness, we performed a retrospective cohort study on population-based historical vital records of the 17-18th century French Canadian immigrants and their descendants under natural fertility conditions. Among 24896 mothers who had at le...
"This study, conducted from the point of view of the children, compares cohorts from the time of New France [Quebec] with those of Canada today, showing that single parenthood is not a new phenomenon. The types of single parenthood, however, are quite different. The colonial model of the traditional family has given way to a variety of family situa...
RÉSUMÉ
Faite du point de vue des enfants, cette étude, comparant des générations de la Nouvelle-France et du Canada contemporain, montre que la monoparentalité n'est pas un fait nouveau. Les contextes de cette monoparentalité sont toutefois très différents. D'une part, le modèle colonial de la famille traditionnelle a fait place à une diversité de...
One of the predictions derived from Williams' (1957) evolutionary theory of senescence is the existence of a trade-off between early fecundity and longevity. The population register of the French immigrants to Québec in the 17th century and of the first Canadians in the 17th and 18th centuries was used to detect such a trade-off in a noncontracepti...
The consequences of population aging on the demand for institutional lodging will undoubtedly be considerable. The authors have estimated this future demand in relationship with the evolution of certain socio-demographic characteristics of tomorrow's elderly. Based on a multivariate analysis (logit model), their projections will demonstrate the nee...
RÉSUMÉ
Les conséquences du vieillissement démographique pour la demande d'hébergement en institution seront sans doute importantes. Nous avons estimé cette demande future en fonction de l'évolution de certaines caractéristiques socio-démographiques des aînés de demain. Établies à partir d'une analyse multivariée (modèle logit), nos projections démo...
This paper addresses the question of whether or not today's adults, by dramatically reducing their fertility, are jeopardizing the very source of support they will need in their old age. Part of the answer may be found in examining how present-day elderly with a demographic profile similar to that of a great many future old, cope with the prospect...
Legare (Jacques), Desjardins (Bertrand). - La Monoparentalidad : un concepto moderno, una realidad de antaňo La familia, e i el momento que ella toma las formas mas variadas, sigue siendo el cri- sol de la evolucion de las poblaciones. Hasta no hace mucho, era la familia tradicional que tuvo la preferencia los investigadores, pero en la actualidad,...