Jaclyn Clement Kinney

• Ph.D.
• Research Associate Professor at Naval Postgraduate School

Learn about the person taking the helm of the Earth and Space Science Open Archive and their vision for the coming years.

In July 2011, observations of a massive phytoplankton bloom in the ice‐covered waters of the western Chukchi Sea raised questions about the extent and frequency of under‐ice phytoplankton growth and its contribution to the carbon budget in the Arctic Ocean. To address some of these questions, we use the fully‐coupled, high‐resolution Regional Arcti...

Arctic sea ice loss in response to a warming climate is assessed in 42 models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Sea ice observations show a significant acceleration in the rate of decline commencing near the turn of the 21 st century. It is our assertion that state-of-the-art climate models should qualit...

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given th...

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river c...

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP)...

During the winter of 2019/2020, as the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) project started its work, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) experienced some of its largest shifts, ranging from a highly negative index in November 2019 to an extremely positive index during January–February–March (JFM) 2020. The perman...

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient conce...

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, only three winter polynyas have ever been observed north of Greenland and they all occurred in the last decade, i.e. February of 2011, 2017 and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled by its magnitude and duration compared to the two previous events. Combined with the limited weather...

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentra...

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2 o C) is formed each winter as a result of the predominately local sea ice growth on the shelf and associated vertical mixing due to brine rejection. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is...

The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study e...

As the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) project went into effect during the winter of 2019/2020, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has experienced some of the largest shifts from a highly negative index in November 2019 to an extremely positive index during January-February-March (JFM) 2020. Here we analyse...

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuati...

Recent observations suggest that substantial phytoplankton blooms occur under sea ice on Arctic continental shelves during June and July. This is opposed to the traditional view that no significant biomass is produced in sea‐ice covered waters. However, no observational estimates are available on the Arctic‐wide primary production beneath sea ice....

In high-latitude environments such as the Arctic Ocean, phytoplankton growth is strongly constrained by light availability. Because light penetration into the upper ocean is attenuated by snow and ice cover, it was generally believed until recently that phytoplankton growth was limited to areas of open water, with negligible growth under the ice. H...

Some of the most rapid climate changes on the planet are experienced in the Arctic. In particular, the Arctic has been warming at a quicker pace than any other place on Earth, what is recognized as Arctic Amplification (AA). This warming has been most visibly manifested through a declining perennial sea ice cover, increasing the potential for its t...

The Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) population of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) ranges across the seasonally ice-covered waters of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. We used locations from 54 bowhead whales, obtained by satellite telemetry between 2006 and 2012, to define areas of concentrated use, termed “core-use areas”. We identified si...

The Pacific Arctic region (PAR) is experiencing atmospheric changes, rapid seasonal sea ice retreat, seawater warming, regional ocean acidification, along with other environmental changes and biological responses in lower to upper trophic organisms. Both physical and biogeochemical modeling indicate the potential for step-function changes to the ov...

Understanding oceanic effects on climate in the Pacific-Arctic region requires knowledge of the mean circulation and its variability in the region. This chapter presents an overview of the mean regional circulation patterns, spatial and temporal variability, critical processes and property fluxes from the northern North Pacific into the western Arc...

The Bering and Chukchi/Beaufort shelf-breaks form the beginning and end of the dramatic sea-level and wind-forced flow of Pacific Ocean water across the Bering and Chukchi continental shelves between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. Recent model results suggest that the on-shelf flow in the Bering is distributed along the shelf-break, wind-dependant,...

Over the past several decades, there has been a fundamental shift in sea ice cover, age, and thickness across the Pacifi c Arctic Region (PAR). Satellite data reveal that trends in sea ice cover have been spatially heterogeneous, with signifi cant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, yet increases in the norther...

Bering Strait is the only ocean connection between the Pacific and the Arctic. The flow through this narrow and shallow strait links the Pacific and Arctic oceans and impacts oceanic conditions downstream in the Chukchi Sea and the Western Arctic. We present a model synthesis of exchanges through Bering Strait at monthly to decadal time scales, inc...

At this early stage of modeling marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the Pacifi c Arctic Region (PAR), numerous challenges lie ahead. Observational data used for model development and validation remain sparse, especially across seasons and under a variety of environmental conditions. Field data are becoming more available, but at the same...

Sparse information is available on the communication between the northern North Pacific and the southern Bering Sea. We present results from a multi-decadal simulation of a high-resolution, pan-Arctic ice-ocean model to address the long-term mean and variability and synthesize limited observations in the Alaskan Stream, Western Subarctic Gyre, and...

Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of the state of global climate because of both its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. Accelerated melting of the perennial sea ice cover has occurred since the late 1990s, which is important to the pan-Arctic region, through effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulations, the Greenla...

Recent observational and modeling studies in the Arctic Ocean suggest that the increasing duration and area of open water during the melt season under warming climate allows significant accumulation of solar energy in the upper ocean, extending below the shallow summer mixed layer. However, the absolute magnitude, seasonal and long term variability...

Observational data show that the Arctic Ocean has significantly and rapidly changed over the last few decades, which is unprecedented in the observational record. Air and water temperatures have increased, sea ice volume and extent have decreased, permafrost has thawed, storminess has increased, sea level has risen, coastal erosion has progressed,...

A 1/12th-degree, pan-Arctic ice-ocean numerical model is used to better understand the circulation and exchanges in the Bering Sea. Understanding the physical oceanography of the Bering Sea is significant for the U.S. Navy due to the expected increase in ship traffic and exploration of natural resources that will likely coincide with the ongoing re...

A 1/12th-degree, pan-Arctic ice-ocean numerical model is used to better understand the circulation and exchanges in the Bering Sea. Understanding the physical oceanography of the Bering Sea is significant for the U.S. Navy due to the expected increase in ship traffic and exploration of natural resources that will likely coincide with the ongoing re...

The recent accelerating climate warming and sea ice melt in the Arctic has been often associated with the changes in atmospheric forcing and ice-albedo feedback. However, the causes of ice melt and its rate are not fully understood. Recent observational and modeling studies suggest that the increasing duration and area of open water during the melt...

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past few decades has prompted scientists to better understand the factors driving sea ice variability. Sea ice melt has been particularly pronounced in the western Arctic and it has been hypothesized that oceanic processes in this area may play an important role in accumulation and distribution of heat b...

The Arctic region is an integral part of the Earth's climate system through its influence on global surface energy and moisture fluxes and on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Within the Arctic, its sea ice cover is possibly the most sensitive indicator of the polar amplified global warming and of the state of Arctic climate system as a whole. H...

We use a 9-km pan-Arctic ice–ocean model to better understand the circulation and exchanges in the Bering Sea, particularly near the shelf break. This region has, historically, been undersampled for physical, chemical, and biological properties. Very little is known about how water from the deep basin reaches the large, shallow Bering Sea shelf. To...

Wind-driven changes in the path of warm Bering/Chukchi waters carried by the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) through Barrow Canyon during late summer are described from high-resolution hydrography, acoustic Doppler current profiler-measured currents, and satellite-measured sea surface temperature imagery acquired from mid-August to mid-September 2005-...

The recent warming and record breaking summer reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean have gained attention of both the scientific community as well as the general public. However, most of these changes have been so far primarily associated with the atmospheric forcing and ice-albedo feedback. We analyze output from a high resolution coupled...

The recent warming and dramatic summer reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean so far have been primarily associated with the atmospheric forcing and ice-albedo feedback. We analyze numerical model output validated with available observations to determine the relative importance of the internal oceanic forcing of sea ice melt. In particular,...

General circulation models (GCMs) that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) on average predict some 50% or more reduction of summer sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean by the end of this century. Unfortunately the majority of those models have significant limitations in their representatio...

Recent changes in the Arctic sea ice cover provide one of the most evident examples of warming climate. However, there is an ongoing scientific debate about the causes of the ice melt and its rate. Most climate models predict up to 50% reduction of summer sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean by the end of this century, as a result of an amplified resp...

Using a high-resolution, pan-Arctic ice-ocean model forced with realistic atmospheric data, we examine the mean transport and temporal and spatial variability within the Alaskan Stream. Model results are analyzed and compared with observations, including satellite altimetry and CTD measurements. The mean net transport of the Alaskan Stream is found...

High-resolution model results from two regional grid configurations, 1/6° and 1/12°, for the pan-Arctic domain are intercompared and validated against limited observational data to examine the main characteristics and distribution of simulated eddies and to determine limitations of the employed spatial resolution. Several regions within the larger...

We examine the diminishing sea ice thickness trend in the Arctic Ocean using results from the NPS 1/12-degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better indication of ice volume variability. The skill of the model...

Models help researchers understand past and present states as well as predict scenarios of environmental change in the Arctic. The authors analyze results on melting sea-ice from a regional coupled ice-ocean model and demonstrate their robustness independent of timescales for surface temperature and salinity relaxation.

We use a high resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Pan-Arctic region forced with realistic atmospheric data to investigate the variability of freshwater content within the Arctic Ocean as well as sea ice and liquid freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic during 1979-2004. Modeled fluxes are validated against recently published estimates. Res...

The oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean is one of the main driving forces of environmental Arctic change. Together with the heat and buoyancy fluxes from the atmosphere at the surface, the local river runoff, and dynamic wind forcing it modulates the state of sea ice cover and determines regions of net growth/melt of sea ice and variability in...

The impact of the lower-boundary forcing over ocean grid points, namely of sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice fraction, and sea ice thickness, on the mean atmospheric simulation is investigated with an Arctic atmospheric regional climate model. The assessment shows that the sea ice/SST forcing has an impact on the atmospheric simulations. The n...

We have developed and run a model with sufficiently high resolution (∼9 km and 45 levels) and a large enough spatial domain to allow for realistic representation of flow through the narrow and shallow straits in the northern Bering Sea. This is potentially important for quantification of long-term mean and time-dependent ocean circulation, and wate...

A model has been developed and run with sufficiently high resolution (~9 km and 45 levels) and a large enough spatial domain to allow for realistic representation of flow through the narrow and shallow straits in the Bering Sea region. This is potentially important for quantification of long-term mean and time-dependent ocean circulation, and water...

On the basis of the normalization to phosphate, a significant amount of nitrate is missing from the deep Bering Sea (BS). Benthic denitrification has been suggested previously to be the dominant cause for the BS nitrate deficit. We measured water column nitrate 15N/14N and 18O/16O as integrative tracers of microbial denitrification, together with p...

A high resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Pan-Arctic region forced with realistic atmospheric data is used to investigate causes and long-term variability trends of the Arctic Ocean and its sea ice. Model results suggest that the recent decrease of sea ice cover might be in part due to the delayed effect of thermodynamic interactions at the...

1] The northward flow of Atlantic Water via the Barents Sea and Fram Strait is modeled, and climatological volume, heat, and salt fluxes into the Arctic Ocean are investigated. We argue that understanding of climate change in the region requires the knowledge of the mean circulation before its variability can be determined. Since estimates of long-...

Seasonal sea ice concentration and thickness were evaluated on a weekly basis during two years with contrasting ice coverage, 1998-1999 and 2000-2001, using data provided by the U.S. National Ice Center. Ice in the Bering Sea during 1998-1999 was extensive and thick, but by contrast, in 2000-2001, winter sea ice formed late with thin ice, and ice m...

The recent warming trend in the Arctic region and its future projections has direct implications for this region's hydrological cycle and the global thermohaline circulation. A quantitative analysis of the freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Fram Strait into the active convection regions of the...

Some of the challenges in modeling the Arctic Ocean have to do with its complex land geometry and bathymetry. The transport of Atlantic and Pacific water from the Subarctic to the north is limited by Fram Strait and the relatively shallow Barents Sea on one side and by Bering Strait on the other side, respectively. The export of freshwater and sea...

The Arctic Ocean has been traditionally a challenging region for modeling due to the presence of the multi-year ice pack, complex bathymetry and the grid singularity at the North Pole. Regional models of the Arctic Ocean have been developed in part to address some of these issues and to give feedback to global ocean and climate models on requiremen...

Physical, hydrochemical, and biological data were collected during three research cruises from winter through spring in the northern Bering Sea. In addition, seasonal ice cover data were used to evaluate the relationship between ice and specific biological processes. Ice-water-biotic interactions were investigated and possible relationships defined...