Jack Goldstone

Jack Goldstone
George Mason University | GMU · School of Public Policy

Professor

About

248
Publications
102,714
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
8,093
Citations
Introduction
Skills and Expertise

Publications

Publications (248)
Article
Full-text available
Recent work on social movement fields has expanded our view of the dynamics of social movements; it should also expand our thinking about social movement success. Such a broader view reveals a paradox: social movements often snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by narrowly targeting authorities with their actions instead of targeting the broader...
Article
Статья предлагает предварительное описание трех революционных волн XXI в., их ключевых характеристик и причин. Одна из целей данной статьи – развить аналитические инструменты, в частности углубить понимание самого понятия революции и революционных событий, а также типологию революционных событий. В целом настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и...
Article
New data on Dutch and British GDP/capita show that at no time prior to 1750, perhaps not before 1800, did the leading countries of northwestern Europe enjoy sustained strong growth in GDP/capita. Such growth in income per head as did occur was highly episodic, concentrated in a few decades and then followed by long periods of stagnation of income p...
Article
Revolution: Structure and Meaning in World History. Said Amir Arjomand, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2019. Pp. 400. $55.00 cloth. ISBN: 9780226026848 - Jack A. Goldstone
Article
The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly dropping in fertility as more countries complete this tr...
Article
Maarten Prak argues that urban citizen associations remained vigorous in the West from the Middle Ages through the Industrial Revolution, and that their support for commercial activity helped bring about that Revolution. That is half correct. During the two thousand years from 300 BC to 1750 AD, numerous societies had similar peaks of urbanization,...
Article
Full-text available
Schultziner is correct to say we need to treat the various stages of social movement origins, protests, and outcomes separately, with detailed analysis of each stage. However, a triparte stage theory may be insufficient, as each stage can have diverse potential trajectories driven by distinct causal mechanisms. Social movement analysis should help...
Article
Full-text available
Zhao provides a new view of why China remained politically united, but unable to achieve industrialization. He traces the roots of both conditions back to the Warring States period, when Chinese leaders developed authoritarian-bureaucratic governance and combined it with Confucian moral ideas and statecraft as a legitimating ideology. This Confucia...
Chapter
Full-text available
Despite striking commonalities, scholars of revolution and social movements have (with some important exceptions) often treated their two phenomena of interest in isolation from one another. While recognizing that there are substantial differences between the two, this chapter argues that contemporary social movements and revolutions are in many wa...
Article
Full-text available
I am grateful to Cliodynamics for this special issue revisiting the ideas put forth in Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Goldstone 1991, 2016) a quarter century ago. The two things that one could hope for in advancing any theory are that it proves capable of being advanced and enriched by other scholars, and that it proves capable...
Article
Full-text available
Three predictive problems bedevil our ability to foresee political crises and state breakdown: (1) how to tell when a previously stable state falls into a situation of hidden but dangerous instability; (2) how to tell, once a certain level of instability has appeared in the form of protests, riots, or regional rebellions, whether chaos will grow an...
Article
Our review of some modern trends in the development of energy technologies suggests that the scenario of a significant reduction of the global oil demand can be regarded as quite probable. Such a scenario implies a rather significant decline of oil prices. The aim of this article is to estimate the sociopolitical destabilization risks that such a d...
Article
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility decline; however, no systemic explanation of the mechanisms sustaining its high fertility has been presented in cross-cultural perspective. In this artic...
Article
Full-text available
In this book, Easterly makes a strong case that what we learn from the history of economic development is that sustained economic growth only takes root where individuals have liberty and the freedom to remake their world. Where oppressive governments obstruct that process, no amount of expert development advice or programs delivered by experts can...
Book
Full-text available
This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted wi...
Book
Full-text available
The nineteenth century witnessed an explosive growth of a gap in per capita incomes (and the level of development in general) between the West and the rest of the world that has become recently known as “the Great Divergence” . In the twentieth century, the Great Divergence continued until the early 1970s; then, in the late 1980s, some convergence...
Data
This is the final version (with cover) of the "Critical 10 Years. Demographic Policies of the Russian Federation: Successes and Challenges" (Moscow: “Delo” Publishing House (RANEPA), 2015).
Book
Full-text available
Russia is currently experiencing a financial crisis, due to international sanctions coupled with a decline in oil prices. These are leading the economy to shrink, perhaps by as much as 5% or more in 2015. The length and consequences of this period of turmoil are unpredictable, but it will surely have a visible negative impact on crucial socio-demog...
Book
Full-text available
Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small his...
Data
Full-text available
This Supplementary Online Information for “Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence” documents in more detail the data and methods that support Korotayev et al.’s finding of high correlation between the dynamics of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence, on the one hand, and the...
Chapter
The rise of modern states in a globalizing world: If you travel internationally, you have a passport that identifies you as the citizen of a particular state. Some people have more than one, and refugees forced to flee across borders may have none. Nonetheless, the universal expectation in the twenty-first century is that everyone is a citizen of s...
Article
The Great and Little Divergence are examined in light of recent data on GDP/capita in the pre-industrial world. The Little Divergence is shown to be a myth, based on pasting together distinct and limited episodes of growth that peter out; and on close examination of diverse data on health, farm output, and gdp China and Europe are shown to be on si...
Article
Russian Abstract: В работе рассматриваются демографические процессы Российской Федерации, государственное регулирование демографических процессов и их социально экономические последствия.В ходе работы были проанализированы последствия государственной политики в области поддержки рождаемости и сделаны оценки её эффективности, с исследованы проблемы...
Article
Full-text available
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origin...
Conference Paper
The recent decade has witnessed remarkable success in various aspects of socioeconomic development in Tropical Africa. However, contrary to the “development is the best contraceptive” expectations, fertility in many countries remains stalled, frequently at very high levels of 5 and more children per woman. We investigate the values and behavior pat...
Conference Paper
When they began, there was hope that the Arab Revolutions of 2011 would be like the peaceful “velvet” or “color” revolutions in the USSR and Eastern Europe in 1989, or in the Ukraine in 2004. Instead, with the possible exception of Tunisia, they have turned out to be more like true, classic revolutions with civil wars, counter-revolutions, high lev...
Article
Full-text available
If one merely counts countries becoming democratic, progress in the international system looks impressive. However, more relevant for future stability is whether countries—whether democratic or not—are fragile, having ineffective and/or illegitimate governments. Moreover, the size of fragile countries, not merely their number, will be important for...
Article
East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute. By KangDavid C.. New York: Columbia University Press, 2010. 240p. $40.00 cloth, $22.00 paper. Never Forget National Humiliation: Historical Memory in Chinese Politics and Foreign Relations. By WangZheng. New York: Columbia University Press, 2012. 312p. $32.50 cloth, $25.00 paper. - Vol...
Article
The 19th century saw the explosive growth of a gap in per capita income between the First and Third World that has become known as the Great Divergence. In the twentieth century, the Great Divergence continued until the early 1970s, then in the late 1980s it was replaced by the Great Convergence as the majority of the Third World countries reached...
Chapter
Full-text available
Demography has traditionally been seen as important to international security simply through the weight of numbers: other things equal, larger countries can field larger armies, and at a given level of economic development, will also have larger economies and can afford larger budgets for defense. From the time that infantry formations came to domi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper points out that virtually all growth in the global labor force in the coming decades will occur in countries that rank poorly in governance criteria. These countries are likely to face extremely large youth cohorts, but lack the ability to provide the education and attract the investment they need to provide productive work. They thus fa...
Article
Full-text available
Drawing on the literatures on elite transitions, factionalism and the new institutionalism, this paper hypothesizes that the stability of partially democratic and emerging democratic regimes is dependent on the willingness of elites to make credible commitments to cooperate and comply with democratic rules. That willingness (or lack thereof) can be...
Article
Full-text available
Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, a distinguished economic historian, and R. Bin Wong, an eminent world historian and specialist on imperial China, have collaborated in this effort to shed light on the causes of the eighteenth-century economic divergence of China and Europe. This book has many of the virtues one would expect from such a collaboration – keen...
Article
Drawing on the literatures on elite transitions, factionalism and the new institutionalism, this paper hypothesizes that the stability of partially and emerging democratic regimes is dependent on the willingness of elites to make credible commitments to share economic and political rents. That willingness (or lack thereof) can be signaled by the pr...
Article
Geoffrey Parker’s Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century (Yale University Press, 2013) is one of the most important history books of the last year. It has been widely heralded as an extraordinary scholarly achievement. Parker makes the case for a link between climate change and the worldwide catastrophe that o...
Conference Paper
The most striking aspect of the Middle East Revolts is the great variety of outcomes that evolved from movements that shared pro-democratic aims -- Morocco has seen a conservative constitutional reform, Tunisia an emerging democracy with a surging Islamist party, Libya a civil war, Egypt a struggling democracy with a resurgent military leadership;...
Article
Full-text available
Neil Fligstein and Doug McAdam have presented a new theory of how collective action creates the structure and dynamics of societies. At issue is the behavior of social movements, organizations, states, political parties, and interest groups. They argue that all of these phenomena are produced by social actors (which may be individuals or groups) in...
Article
Full-text available
In this beautifully crafted book, Timur Kuran provides a remarkably rich analysis of how Islamic law impeded economic progress in the Middle East and North Africa. Kuran's views are fresh and powerful, and they are subtle. He does not claim that Islamic law was generally bad for economic activity. He does not claim that prohibitions on interest den...
Article
Revolutions rarely succeed, writes one of the world's leading experts on the subject-except for revolutions against corrupt and personalist "sultanistic" regimes. This helps explain why Tunisia's Ben All and Egypt's Mubarak fell-and also why some other governments in the region will prove more resilient.
Article
Full-text available
Charles Tilly’s social theories shifted over the course of his career from an early focus on quantitative and macro-sociological approaches to a later focus on relations and agency. His studies of state-making also shifted, from a focus on conflict and capitalism to explorations of democracy. This paper details these shifts and places them in the c...
Article
The age of revolutions in global context, c. 1760–1840 - Edited by ArmitageDavid and SubrahmanyamSanjay. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010. Pp. xi + 301. Hardback £50.00, ISBN: 978-0-230-58046-6; paperback £16.99, ISBN: 978-0-230-58047-3. - Volume 5 Issue 3 - Jack A. Goldstone

Network

Cited By