Jaap Kwadijk

Jaap Kwadijk
Deltares

PhD

About

96
Publications
37,672
Reads
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5,757
Citations
Additional affiliations
September 1993 - September 1997
Utrecht University
Position
  • Lecturer
Description
  • Research to the impact of climate change on the river rhine Lecture series Applied Quaternary Geology
September 1993 - September 1997
Utrecht University
Position
  • Lecturer

Publications

Publications (96)
Article
When decision-making in the case of imminent water-related humanitarian disasters or violent conflict depends on a quick assessment of water-related risks, there may not be enough time to collect high-quality local data. Online available global data may offer an alternative data source. We present a method to construct a water resources model based...
Article
Stochastic modeling of precipitation for estimation of hydrological extremes is an important element of flood risk assessment and management. The spatially consistent estimation of rainfall fields and their temporal variability remains challenging and is addressed by various stochastic weather generators. In this study, two types of weather generat...
Article
Full-text available
Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shoreline retreat of sandy coasts in the absence of sand supply mechanisms. These coasts have high touristic and ecological value and provide protection of valuable infrastructures and buildings to storm impacts. So far, large-scale assessments of shoreline retreat use specific datasets or assumptions for the geophys...
Article
Full-text available
The spatial distribution of permafrost and associated mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are crucial data for hydrological studies. In this paper, we present the current state of knowledge on the spatial distribution of the permafrost properties of 29 river basins in Mongolia. The MAGT and ALT values are estimate...
Poster
Full-text available
Climate change driven sea level rise (SLR) is expected to rise with even higher rates during the second half of the present century. This will exacerbate shoreline retreat of sandy coasts, which comprise one third of the global coastline. Sandy coasts have high touristic and ecological value while they are the first level of defense against storms,...
Article
Full-text available
Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude ofsea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second halfofthis century. The implications ofSLRmaybe existential for a low- lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exp...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Design of flood defences requires discharge estimates for long return periods, which are generally not present in observational records. Alternatively, synthetic weather series can be used as input into a hydrological model to simulate extreme discharge events. The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of different hydrological model structure...
Presentation
Full-text available
An increase of the global mean sea level has already been observed and it is expected to continue with even higher rates during the second half of the present century. This can lead to sandy shoreline retreat and permanent and increased episodic inundation of parts of the coastal zone. In order to protect human lives and assets, adaptation measures...
Article
Full-text available
1] Climate change will increase winter precipitation, and in combination with earlier snowmelt it will cause a shift in peak discharge in the Rhine basin from spring to winter. This will probably lead to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. In this paper we aim to enhance the simulation of future low-probability flood peak...
Article
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning eeective adaptation strategies 1. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socioeconomic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk pr...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change increases flood probabilities in the Rhine river basin, which complicates long-term flood management planning. This paper explores a method to evaluate the effectiveness of flood management measures for the river Rhine assuming a relatively extreme climate change scenario for the year 2050. Considered are planned measures described i...
Technical Report
Full-text available
De zeespiegel kan mogelijk sneller gaan stijgen dan tot nog toe is aangenomen in het Deltaprogramma. Deze extra versnelling heeft te maken met recente inzichten over het mogelijk versneld afbreken en smelten van het landijs op Antarctica. In Deltaprogramma 2018 is opgenomen dat de mogelijke consequenties van de resulterende extra versnelde zeespieg...
Article
Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood ris...
Article
Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year 1 , and flood risks are expected to increase due to socioeconomic development , subsidence, and climate change 2-4. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods 5. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter reviews recent trends and variability in river flows to the North Sea. The main contributors are the River Elbe and the River Rhine. In addition to these large rivers many smaller rivers also discharge into the North Sea. However, by far the biggest contributor is the Baltic Sea outflow. Observation records for the major rivers drainin...
Article
Earth's surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor — an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe.
Article
Full-text available
Permafrost is an important component in the ecosystem and plays a key role in soil regime characteristics in high-altitude regions. Thawing depths and mean annual ground temperatures are the main parameters to conduct research on permafrost. Here we present the results of different modeling approaches for estimating thawing depths and mean annual g...
Article
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk pr...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report describes the contents and findings of an expert panel that discussed the underlying assumptions of the results of the study performed by the KNMI and Deltares: Implications of the KNMI'14 climate scenarios for the discharge of the Rhine and the Meuse. The focus of the discussions was the plausibility of extreme high discharges of the R...
Article
Full-text available
Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptatio...
Article
The Fukushima accident raised considerable concern around the globe on the overall safety of nuclear power plants against natural hazard induced risks. Since nuclear power-plants are often located near- or in flood zones from rivers, an important question is whether Nuclear facilities will face increased risk from flooding in the future? IN 2011, t...
Article
Full-text available
As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with...
Article
Full-text available
This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrolog...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands' current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the...
Article
The representation of hydrological processes in land surface schemes (LSSs) has recently been improved. In this study, the usability of GCM runoff for river discharge modeling is evaluated by validating the mean, timing, and amplitude of the modeled annual discharge cycles against observations. River discharge was calculated for six large rivers us...
Article
Full-text available
Recente studies tonen aan dat met gerichte inzet van circa 200 kilometer doorbraakvrije dijken het slachtofferrisico meer dan gehalveerd kan worden. We kunnen slimmer omgaan met onze overstromingsrisico’s. Door ons niet alleen te focussen op het verkleinen van de kansen op overstromingen, maar ook beleid te maken dat leidt tot het verkleinen van de...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this study is to simulate present and future discharges of the Nile River upstream Lake Nasser. For this purpose a rainfall–runoff model (HBV) is integrated with a water distribution and allocation model (RIBASIM) for the upper Nile. The combination of the two models is referred to as the Nile Hydrological Simulation Model (NHSM)....
Article
Full-text available
This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology...
Article
Full-text available
As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the MHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological da...
Article
Full-text available
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with fu...
Article
Full-text available
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with fu...
Article
Climate change increases flood probabilities in the Rhine river basin, which complicates long-term flood management planning. This paper explores a method to evaluate the effectiveness of flood management measures for the river Rhine assuming a relatively extreme climate change scenario for the year 2050. Considered are planned measures described i...
Article
Full-text available
Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long-term water management planning in the Netherlands, we carried out a study that started at the opposite end of the effect chain. In the study we refer to three aspects of water management, flood defense, drinking water s...
Article
Full-text available
Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are often used in studies investigating hydrological impacts of climate change. However GCM data are known to have large biases, especially for precipitation. In this study the usefulness of GCM data for hydrological studies was tested by applying bias-corrected daily climate data of the 20CM3 control exp...
Article
Full-text available
Forested tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia store at least 42 000 Million metric tonnes (Mt) of soil carbon. Human activity and climate change threatens the stability of this large pool, which has been decreasing rapidly over the last few decades owing to deforestation, drainage and fire. In this paper we estimate the carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</su...
Article
Full-text available
Multiple studies investigating the hydrological consequences of climate change on a global scale have been conducted. However, projected changes and discharge quantities differ per GCM and therefore, besides information on (mean) direction of change, the likelihood of change is of great interest. In this study meteorological data from twelve GCMs (...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the skill of the Macro-scale Hydrological Model (MHM) PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past extremes in the discharges of 20 large rivers of the world, as an initial step in assessing the prospect of using the model for hydrological forecasting. The assessment provides a benchmark verification procedure with the best possible meteo...
Article
Climate change will increase winter precipitation, and in combination with earlier snowmelt it will cause a shift in peak discharge in the Rhine basin from spring to winter. This will probably lead to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. In this paper we aim to enhance the simulation of future low-probability flood peak eve...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this study is to simulate present and future discharges at the Nile River upstream Lake Nasser. For this purpose a rainfall-runoff model (HBV) is integrated in an existing model which describes the water distribution in the upper Nile (RIBASIM-NILE). RIBASIM-NILE can be used to describe effects of developments upstream the High Asw...
Article
Full-text available
Forested tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia store at least 42 000 Million metric tonnes (Mt) of soil carbon. Human activity and climate change threatens the stability of this large pool, which has been decreasing rapidly over the last few decades owing to deforestation, drainage and fire. In this paper we estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissio...
Article
Full-text available
This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Floods in the Rhine and Meuse basins are generally induced by persistent rainfall over a multi-day period. The response to rainfall strongly varies over time. This variation can largely be ascribed to the variability in initial moisture conditions. With well-established remote sensing techniques large scale information on the surface soil moisture...
Technical Report
Full-text available
De komende decennia worden er tussen de 500.000 en 1.500.000 woningen gebouwd waarvan een groot deel in laag Nederland. Deze studie laat zien dat door deze woningen overstromingsbestendig te bouwen schadereductie mogelijk is. Het schaderisico wordt dan nog eens een factor 2 minder als naast een Business as Usual variant nieuwbouwwoningen worden opg...
Article
To improve our understanding of the relationship between climate change and variations in Caspian Sea level (CSL), we performed simulations of annual CSL for the period 8 ka to 2100 CE using a coupled model setup representing climate, hydrology and sea level. We forced our climate model with long-term changes in orbital parameters and atmospheric g...
Article
To improve our understanding of the relationship between climate change and variations in Caspian Sea level (CSL), we performed simulations of annual CSL for the period 8 ka to 2100 CE using a coupled model setup representing climate, hydrology and sea level. We forced our climate model with long-term changes in orbital parameters and atmospheric g...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The objective of the study is the improvement of flood forecasting and warning as a viable application of remote sensing products through the integration of satellite products with existing hydrologic models in an operational flood forecasting system. To do so a facility has been made to import the AMSR-E (The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer...
Poster
Floods in the Rhine and Meuse basins are generally induced by persistent rainfall over a multi-day period. The response to rainfall strongly varies over time. This variation can largely be ascribed to the variability in initial moisture conditions. With well-established remote sensing techniques large scale information on the surface soil moisture...
Article
In het Nationaal Bestuursakkoord Water (NBW) is afgesproken dat voor het waterbeleid grosso modo wordt uitgegaan van het WB21-middenscenario voor het klimaat. Vanwege het uitkomen van nieuwe klimaatscenario’s van het KNMI bestaat aanleiding om dit vertrekpunt te heroverwegen. Om naar de toekomst toe adequaat met de klimaatscenario’s om te gaan is d...
Article
The aim of this project, sponsored by the Dutch agency for aerospace programmes, is to demonstrate that assimilation of soil moisture data obtained from AMSR-E remotely sensed brightness temperature measurements leads to a reduction of the uncertainty in the stream flow predictions. The method is applied to the 60000 km2 Mosel sub-basin of the rive...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In dit rapport is voor het eerst getracht op een systematische wijze de vraag te beantwoorden hoe bestendig Nederland is tegen klimaatverandering – en tegen de daarmee gepaard gaande zeespiegelstijging. Daarbij zijn de recent gepubliceerde klimaatscenario’s van het KNMI voor 2050 gebruikt, alsmede vier sociaaleconomische scenario’s met een zichttij...
Article
Full-text available
In dit rapport is voor het eerst getracht op een systematische wijze de vraag te beantwoorden hoe bestendig Nederland is tegen klimaatverandering – en tegen de daarmee gepaard gaande zeespiegelstijging. Daarbij zijn de recent gepubliceerde klimaatscenario’s van het KNMI voor 2050 gebruikt, alsmede vier sociaal-economische scenario’s met een zichtti...
Article
Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need...
Article
As a consequence of increasing winter rainfall totals and intensities over the second half of the 20th century, signs of increased flooding probability in many areas of the Rhine and Meuse basins have been documented. These changes affecting rainfall characteristics are most evidently due to an increase in westerly atmospheric circulation types. La...