J. K. Vrijling

J. K. Vrijling
Delft University of Technology | TU

About

260
Publications
72,816
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
4,372
Citations

Publications

Publications (260)
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper describes a method for assessing the safety of approach channels with respect to an acceptable probability of ship grounding. Available ship simulators are used to generate trajectory data on the ship motions by which necessary probability density distributions of the ship motions are derived as a function of the environmental conditions...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents an attempts towards creation of generalized models of ships manoeuvring area determination and ship performance created on the base of real simulation results. Those models are needed for better understanding of the safe navigation process in ports areas and its approaches and for risk analysis when no full information about the...
Article
Full-text available
Flood risk reduction can be provided by interventions such as raising land or constructing flood defences. This paper introduces an approach to optimize the selection of risk reduction strategies. It expands existing economic optimization approaches for flood defences, by introducing (largely) analytical formulations to include the effects of appro...
Conference Paper
A lack of appropriate guidelines for the design and assessment hampers the development of multifunctional flood defenses like parking garages in quays and houses in dikes. The aim of the present paper, therefore, is to gain insight in the structural performance of multifunctional flood defenses and to provide a tool to evaluate design alternatives....
Article
Full-text available
Grass covers have been applied as an effective measure for protecting river levees and sea dikes. We conducted experiments to show how roots considerably improve the shear strength of soil on dike slopes. Roots of 1-year-old Bermuda and Carpet grass may increase the total shear strength of up to 20 kPa. Exposed to severe overtopping flow, dike slop...
Article
Niu, L.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., and Vrijling, J.K., 2017. Physical limitation of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal waters. Research on phytoplankton dynamics in coastal waters has frequently been proposed, motivated by environmental factors. The present study aims to develop a vertical phytoplankton model to investigate the phytoplankton variabili...
Article
A great deal of coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by large-scale flooding caused by tsunamis, tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical storms. In order for those areas to stay protected, investments in multi-layer safety projects are often contemplated. This chapter presents a procedure to derive cost-efficient design specificatio...
Article
As the most important indicator of the coastal ecosystem, various studies on phytoplankton have frequently been proposed in coastal waters. In this study, the statistical analysis of phytoplankton biomass (in terms of chlorophyll a) is performed in the Wadden Sea near Lauwersoog (53.4167° N, 6.2000° E), The Netherlands, determined by the 10-year's...
Article
As the most important indicator of the coastal ecosystem, phytoplankton plays an important role in the whole impact-effect chain. The present study aims to investigate the characteristics of phytoplankton dynamics using an ecological model of BLOOM II (one module of the Delft3D suite), and to give insight in the predictions with an integration of u...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical statistical downscaling methods are becoming increasingly popular in climate change impact assessments that require downscaling multi-global climate model (GCM) projections. Here, empirical statistical downscaling methods are classified based on calibration strategies [bias correction (BC) and change factor (CF)] and statistical transform...
Article
Full-text available
After the flood disaster of 1953, the Netherlands adopted a rational approach to flood risk management with the use of protection standards determined by means of cost-benefit analysis. Due to scientific and political developments that have recently taken place, an update of the Dutch protection standards is being undertaken. One of the major prior...
Article
Full-text available
Embankment breaching is a composite process coupled by hydraulic processes and sediment transport processes. Erosion is the link in the interaction between breach flow and embankment material. Surface erosion starts in the initial breach phase and triggers the initial damage of the embankment. As the surface erosion develops completely, the headcut...
Article
Full-text available
To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate c...
Article
The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method w...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at the North Sea. The intent of this method is to pro...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper reports on work, which is currently conducted under the Dutch Technology Foundation STW-Perspectief program " Multi Functional Flood Defences ". This program aims to develop both the technology and the governance required for the implementation of multifunctional flood defences. It involves in total 12 PhD students and 4 postdocs. This p...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Recent experience of large-scale water disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011 has reminded mankind that disasters cannot be ruledout. Unprecedented low-probability events can happen even in the most well monitored areas, causing major social-economic disruption. Failing to prepare for...
Article
A method is presented to measure the depth-averaged horizontal velocity in distorted physical models, i.e., the depth-averaged horizontal velocity can be equivalent to a point velocity measured at approximately 0.6h below the water surface (h is the water depth). Further a scale for the Chézy coefficient in distorted models is deduced, and the velo...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes a data-driven approach in determining an optimal inspection interval for a petroleum pipeline system. The approach accounts for the determination of both the probability of failure and its associated consequences. The probability of failure is estimated by fitting the historical data of failure of the pipeline into either a homo...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate c...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, a data-driven model is applied to derive optimum maintenance strategy for a petroleum pipeline. The model incorporates structured expert judgment (classical model) to calculate the frequency of failure, considering various failure mechanisms. Optimization models are applied to derive optimum maintenance intervals for petroleum pipeli...
Conference Paper
In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIV...
Article
Various governments have defined a so-called safety chain to structure their efforts in the field of risk management for low-probability disasters. The safety chain typically consists of the following components: proaction, prevention, preparation, repression. While the terminology suggests that the safety chain should be interpreted a series syste...
Article
Full-text available
In this work, the probabilistic methods have been used to produce a methodology capable to estimate the acceptable level of risk in a cost-benefit framework. The benefits and the costs are weighed against associated risks to aid the decision making process on risk acceptance, from both the individual and societal perspective. Thereafter, acceptable...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Current methods used to determine Coastal setback lines have several limitations. Furthermore, the historical practice of defining setback lines based on a single deterministic estimate is also proving inadequate with the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks which require probabilistic estimates of coastal recession. This...
Article
Full-text available
Breaching of embankments has recently drawn more and more attention due to its importance in the development of early warning systems for embankment failures, in the evacuation plans of people at risk, in the design method of embankments based on a risk-approach, etc. The erosion process observed during embankment breaching tests in the laboratory...
Conference Paper
This paper presents the development of a semi-probabilistic method for armour layer design of rubble mound breakwaters, which is based on the use of safety factors. The objective is to introduce an approach that is both attractive to designers and sufficiently reliable when a high degree of uncertainty is involved in the design process. The main fo...
Article
Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning (establishing b...
Article
Full-text available
Current design codes like the Eurocode use safety or reliability classes to assign target reliabilities to different types of structures or structural members according to the potential consequences of failure. That, in essence, is a risk-based criterion. A wide range of structures is designed with such codes, and distinction is made between reliab...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach to find the optimal inspection interval for a petroleum pipeline that is subject to long-term corrosion failure. The approach accounts for the determination of both the failure frequency and consequences of failure. Three forms of corrosion are studied; these are uniform corrosion, pitting corrosion...
Article
Full-text available
Periodic models are ideal for modeling hydrological time series. But when applying periodic models to daily flow series, there is a problem of how to make the periodic model "parsimonious", because it is infeasible to fit a model for each day of the year. Therefore, an approach to periodic modeling is presented which groups the neighboring days bas...
Article
The International Conference on Coastal Engineering (ICCE) is a biennial conference held under the auspices of the Coastal Engineering Research Council of the COPRI (Coasts, Oceans, Ports, Rivers Institute) of the American Society of Civil Engineers. The Proceedings of the ICCE are provided here, with papers covering a wide range of topics includin...
Article
The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that e...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning (establishing b...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A new concept for wave energy conversion is examined as a proof of concept for generating electricity in a moderate wave climate while being integrated in a caisson breakwater. Physical model testing is performed to analyse the preliminary efficiency of the device and to identify areas of improvement. The resulting device is calculated for two samp...
Article
For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper describes a method to reduce the simulation cost eve...
Article
Decisions about disaster preparedness are rarely informed by cost-benefit analyses. This paper presents an economic model to address the thorny question, 'how prepared is prepared enough?' Difficulties related to the use of cost-benefit analysis in the field of disaster management concern the tension between the large number of high-probability eve...
Article
Full-text available
A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of crude pipeline, considering various failure mechanis...
Article
Full-text available
This paper describes the hydrodynamic erosion process of undisturbed clay due to the turbulent flow, based on theoretical analysis and experimental results. The undisturbed clay has the unique and complicated characteristics of cohesive force among clay particles, which are highly different from disturbed clay and non-cohesive sand. Based on moment...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we provide a computational framework for evaluation of reliability and safety assessment of infrastructures. It is based on the combined application of the dynamic bounds (DB) method and a probabilistic finite element model (FEM). The DB improves the computational efficiency of the FEM when calculating time-dependent failure analyses...
Article
In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated w...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Oil and gas pipelines are subject to different degrees of failure and degradation during operation. Common pipeline failure mechanisms include corrosion, mechanical damage, third-party damage, and design imperfections. One or a combination of these failure mechanisms could eventually lead to rupture, carrying huge human, financial, and environmenta...
Article
In order to avoid failure in its lifetime, a breakwater system has to be inspected and, if necessary, has to be repaired. In this paper, a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning is formulated. Rational maintenance decision-making approaches are discussed. The proposed maintenance strategy combines time-dependent and con...
Article
This paper presents a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning and its application to rubble mound breakwaters. In order to fulfil designated functions, a breakwater has to be inspected during its lifetime and has to be repaired if necessary. Actions of inspecting and repairing form a maintenance strategy. In the paper ra...
Book
These Proceedings contain the full papers presented at the 7th International Probabilistic Workshop
Chapter
End of August 2005 the flood defences of New Orleans were hit by hurricane Katrina. It quickly became apparent that they could not withstand this force of nature. The three bowls of the city were flooded. Over a thousand people lost their lives and the total damage exceeded $20 billion US. What can we learn from this disaster? Can the process of un...
Article
After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina, plans have been developed for the improvement of the flood protection system of the city. In this paper, we apply the principles used in the Netherlands for risk-based design of flood protection systems to the New Orleans metropolitan area. In this so-called economic optimizat...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper the reliability analysis of sea flood defence systems and the probabilistic approach of the design of the sea flood defences are outlined. The application of probabilistic design methods offers the designer a way to unify the design of engineering structures, processes and management systems. For this reason there is a growing interes...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper provides comparisons between the deterministic and probabilistic methods through results obtained from a recent reported work. The study focuses on corrosions, a mechanism that leads to reduction in pipeline structural integrity. It has been shown in this paper that certain limitations in the deterministic method, through the failure pre...
Conference Paper
The influence of several structural parameters on the performance of a box-shaped floating breakwater is numerically analyzed for different wave frequencies. Calculations are based on a linear two-dimensional potential method and deep-water conditions. Since only beam waves are considered, the structure has only three degrees of freedom. The motion...