J. Michael Reed

Tufts University | Tufts · Department of Biology

Theoretically, small, isolated populations should not persist. Empirically, this predication appears to be supported in some cases and contradicted in others. Although small population size is a central concept in conservation biology, it is not defined consistently in a biologically meaningful way. Its definition can be arbitrary (e.g., population...

Where stable source populations of at-risk species exist, translocation may be a reasonable strategy for re-establishing extirpated populations. However, the success rates of such efforts are mixed, necessitating thorough preliminary investigation. Stochastic population modeling can be a useful method of assessing the potential success of transloca...

Identifying reliable bioindicators of population status is a central goal of conservation physiology. Physiological stress measures are often used as metrics of individual health and can assist in managing endangered species if linked to fitness traits. We analysed feather corticosterone, a cumulative physiological stress metric, of individuals fro...

There is increasing interest in applying resilience concepts at different scales of biological organization to address major interdisciplinary challenges from cancer to climate change. It is unclear, however, whether resilience can be a unifying concept consistently applied across the breadth of the biological sciences, or whether there is limited...

Desert communities are threatened with species loss due to climate change, and their resistance to such losses is unknown. We constructed a food web of the Mojave Desert terrestrial community (300 nodes, 4080 edges) to empirically examine the potential cascading effects of bird extinctions on this desert network, compared to losses of mammals and l...

Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) ( Hypothenemus hampei ) as a study system. Previ...

A hallmark of the vertebrate stress response is a rapid increase in glucocorticoids and catecholamines; however, this does not mean that these mediators are the best, or should be the only, metric measured when studying stress. Instead, it is becoming increasingly clear that assaying a suite of downstream metrics is necessary in stress physiology....

Purpose of Review Preparing for pandemics requires a degree of interdisciplinary work that is challenging under the current paradigm. This review summarizes the challenges faced by the field of pandemic science and proposes how to address them. Recent Findings The structure of current siloed systems of research organizations hinders effective inte...

The positive relationship between number of introduced individuals and introduction success has been widely proposed in invasion biology on theoretical and empirical grounds. Still, successful establishment has been reported for smaller-than-expected founding populations, thus we suspected that the role of chance in species introductions had been u...

Of the boreal- and Arctic-breeding North American shorebirds that migrate south through the Caribbean, most individuals continue farther south. However, for many species, some individuals remain beyond the southbound migration period (i.e., throughout the temperate winter and/or summer). This variation among individuals adds complexity to observati...

Parameter approximation is often necessary when calculating species thermal properties, and researchers historically have assumed animals are spherical when estimating volume and density. We hypothesized that a spherical model would result in significantly biased measures of density for birds, which are generally longer than they are tall or wide,...

Conservation reliant species complicate the idealized view of endangered species recovery by depending on perpetual management to maintain viable populations, making the goal of de-listing via threat removal potentially unattainable. The Hawaiian Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni) and Hawaiian Coot (Fulica alai) are conservation reliant, endange...

Community viability analysis (CVA) has been put forth as an analogue for population viability analysis (PVA), an accepted conservation tool for evaluating species-specific threat and management scenarios. The original proposal recommended that CVAs examine resistance-based questions. PVAs, however, are broadly applicable to multiple types of viabil...

Fireflies are charismatic beetles with attractive bioluminescent courtship displays that have recently been swept onto the global stage of nature tourism. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of the geographic scope, magnitude, focal species, and other attributes of the major firefly tourism sites worldwide. Through targeted interviews a...

The study of island subspecies provides excellent “natural experiments” for examining the impacts of different selective regimes on animal taxa. We examined the morphological differences between the Hawaiian and continental North American subspecies of the Common Gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis and G. g. cachinnans, respectively), for whi...

Physiological metrics are becoming popular tools for assessing individual condition and population health to inform wildlife management and conservation decisions. Corticosterone assays can provide information on how animals cope with individual and habitat-level stressors, and the recent development of feather assays is an exciting innovation that...

Despite being geographically central to the Atlantic Americas Flyway for migratory birds, the Caribbean is often overlooked or underappreciated when addressing the conservation of North American shorebirds. To our knowledge, this is the first Caribbean-wide assessment of shorebird use in the region. We analyzed 211,013 shorebird species observation...

Shifts in the timing of animal migration are widespread and well-documented; however, the mechanism underlying these changes is largely unknown. In this study, we test the hypothesis that systematic changes in stopover duration—the time that individuals spend resting and refueling at a site—are driving shifts in songbird migration timing. Specifica...

In the original publication of this paper, a sentence in the “Habitat loss and fragmentation” section incorrectly left out a phrase to read “Genome-wide SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) analysis of Photinus pyralis, a species widespread and abundant across the eastern United States, among populations, with Fst (fixation index) values averaging...

Hawaiian stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus knudseni ) are an endangered subspecies of the Black‐necked stilt endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. Despite long‐term study, the main drivers of Hawaiian stilt population dynamics are poorly understood. We tested for density dependence using two sources of evidence: a 30‐year time series of annual estimated ran...

Two key problems in trying to link rarity to extinction risk have been conflating threats with risk factors, and over-reliance on a rarity construct that fails to capture many relevant risk factors. In this study, we disentangle threats from risk factors and show how their interaction can be used to predict extinction risk. We also investigate the...

Short streamflow records make it difficult to determine the extent to which discharge changes in excess of ecological thresholds are due to dam operations or natural variability. Unnecessary changes to reservoir operating rules can reduce off-stream benefits whereas no changes to rules when thresholds are exceeded can degrade downstream riverine ec...

We analyzed data from across five decades of passerine bird banding at Manomet in Plymouth, Massachusetts, USA. This included 172,609 captures during spring migration and 253,265 during fall migration, from 1969 to 2015. Migration counts are prone to large interannual variation and trends are often difficult to interpret, but have the advantage of...

Water security is essential for human well‐being and is among the biggest challenges in environmental governance. Governments and nonprofit organizations alike are gaining increased appreciation for the contributions of intact ecosystems to water security, whereas conservation scientists call for decisive action to address the dire condition of ear...

Abstract Photography with small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) offers opportunities for researchers to better understand habitat selection in wildlife, especially for species that select habitat from an aerial perspective (e.g., many bird species). The growing number of commercial sUAS being flown by recreational users represents a potentially va...

The West Indian avifauna has provided fundamental insights into island biogeography, taxon cycles, and the evolution of avian behavior. Our interpretations, however, rely on robust hypotheses of evolutionary relationships and consistent conclusions about taxonomic status in groups with many endemic island populations. Here we present a phylogenetic...

There is broad interest in determining repeatability of individual responses. Current methods calculate repeatability of individual points (initial and/or peak), time to peak value, or a single measure of the integrated total response (area under the curve), rather than the shape of the response profile. Repeatability estimates of response profiles...

Anthropogenic alterations to landscape structure and composition can have significant impacts on biodiversity, potentially leading to species extinctions. Population‐level impacts of landscape change are mediated by animal behaviors, in particular dispersal behavior. Little is known about the dispersal habits of rails (Rallidae) due to their crypti...

In many cooperatively breeding species, young ("helpers") from one year help other adults raise offspring the following year. In contrast to helper effects during the nestling or postfledging stages of the avian breeding cycle, potential benefits from helpers during incubation are poorly studied. We analyzed 39 clutches and recorded 6,027 off-bouts...

We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai'i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with no apparent movement between them. We assessed exti...

Perturbation analysis examining the sensitivity of extirpation probability among Hawaiian gallinule populations on O’ahu to mean brood size Points indicate parameter values tested. Results are shown for the overall population (top) and 5 subpopulations.

Spatial representation of potential Hawaiian gallinule habitat loss due to sea level rise over 80 and 160 year time scales at the Windward wetland complex on O’ahu Light gray areas indicate current Hawaiian gallinule habitat, dark gray indicates seawater. Black areas indicate habitat lost due to seawater inundation. ∼6% of habitat in the Windward c...

Perturbation analysis examining the sensitivity of extirpation probability among Hawaiian gallinule populations on O’ahu to varying proportions of females in the breeding pool Points represent parameter values tested. Results are shown for the overall population (top) and 5 subpopulations.

Count data of Hawaiian gallinules from playback surveys during Summer 2017 Each line represents the results of counts taken using the playback method of DesRochers, Gee & Reed (2008) at a particular pond in each wetland complex. Totals for individual wetlands and individual wetland complexes are presented. Each count was carried out using 1 minute...

Spatial representation of potential Hawaiian gallinule habitat loss due to sea level rise over 80 and 160 year time scales at the Pearl Harbor wetland complex on O’ahu Light gray areas indicate current Hawaiian gallinule habitat, dark gray indicates seawater. Black areas indicate habitat lost due to seawater inundation. ∼‘0% of habitat in the Pearl...

Spatial representation of potential Hawaiian gallinule habitat loss due to sea level rise over 80 and 160 year time scales at Turtle Bay resorts on O’ahu. 160 years) Light gray areas indicate current Hawaiian gallinule habitat, dark gray indicates seawater. Black areas indicate habitat lost due to seawater inundation. No habitat in Turtle Bay is lo...

Raw data and code for Hawaiian gallinule PVA A zipped folder containing raw data, Excel spreadsheet calculations, R code, and Vortex outputs used in preparing input data and analyzing outputs of Hawaiian gallinule population viability model implemented in Vortex.

Despite decades of research, we still lack a complete understanding of what factors influence the transition of the necessary and adaptive acute stress response to what has become known as chronic stress. This gap in knowledge has illuminated the necessity for studies that examine the thresholds between these two sides of the stress response. Here,...

Vital rates describe the demographic traits of organisms and are an essential resource for wildlife managers to assess local resource conditions and to set objectives for and evaluate management actions. Endangered waterbirds on the Hawaiian Islands have been managed intensively at state and federal refuges since the 1970s, but with little quantita...

The effects of anthropogenic landscape change on genetic population structure are well studied, but the temporal and spatial scales at which genetic structure can develop, especially in taxa with high dispersal capabilities like birds, are less well understood. We investigated population structure in the Hawaiian gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvi...

The endangered population of roseate terns (Sterna dougallii) in the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean consists of a network of large and small breeding colonies on islands. This type of fragmented population poses an exceptional opportunity to investigate dispersal, a mechanism that is fundamental in population dynamics and is crucial to understand the...

Repeated exposure to acute stressors causes dramatic changes in an animal's stress physiology and the cumulative effects are often called chronic stress. Recently we showed that short-term exposure to weather-related stimuli, such as temperature change, artificial precipitation, and food restriction, cause acute responses in captive European starli...

The Eastern Caribbean islands of Martinique and Saint Lucia are home to the Endangered White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus brachyurus in Martinique and R. b. sanctaeluciae in Saint Lucia). This species is among the most threatened of Caribbean birds, with fewer than 1,500 individuals range-wide. Here we review current research on its...

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or...

Population trend results. Estimated break-points and piecewise regression slope estimates for the Hawai`i Creeper and the Hawai`i `Ākepa. Break-points are shown with the corresponding posterior probability (P) of a change-point at that time. (PDF)

Linear skewness versus ordinary skewness. Linear skewness (black solid line) and ordinary skewness (brown dashed line) with two rolling window sizes (50% top graphs, 25% bottom graphs) for the Hawai`i Creeper and the Hawai`i `Ākepa. The vertical red line occurs at the year 2000, when the Japanese White-eye population increased and the purported sta...

Comparison of methods of different research groups analyzing forest bird data in Hakalau. Comparison of the methods, and spatial and temporal scales described in six papers analyzing forest birds in Hakalau. Blue portions represent annual point-transect sampling (excluding 2009 in Camp et al. 2016 as indicated by the dashed line); green portions re...

Methods and results for populations trends. (PDF)

Early warning signal analysis of detection-corrected abundance estimates. Kendall’s τ and linear trends of the early warning signals autocorrelation, sample variance, and linear skewness in the Hawai`i Creeper and the Hawai`i `Ākepa using detection-corrected abundance estimates in Hakalau. (PDF)

Bayesian change-point analysis. Change-point assessment of the Hawai`i Creeper, Hawai`i `Ākepa, and Japanese White-eye natural log-transformed detection-corrected state-space generated abundance estimates from 1987 to 2012 in Hakalau using Bayesian change-point analysis (R package ‘bcp’). The upper plots show the annual abundance estimates (green d...

The habitat of the green-veined white butterfly Pieris oleracea in eastern North America has undergone invasions by the exotic plant garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), which is replacing native hosts of P. oleracea such as Cardamine diphylla. A. petiolata was originally lethal to most larvae of the native butterfly but during the past 20+ years i...

Habitat suitability models can guide species conservation by identifying correlates of occurrence and predicting where species are likely to occur. We created habitat suitability models for the White-breasted Thrasher Ramphocinclus brachyurus, a narrowly distributed endangered songbird that occupies dry forest in Saint Lucia and Martinique. Eighty-...

Although small populations are at high risk of extinction, there are regular reports in the scientific literature of purported small, isolated, persistent populations. One source of evidence of the viability of small populations comes from the alleged successful introduction of species to areas outside their original range from introductions of few...

Information from primary sources Quotes from the original literature relating to the confidence scores in Table 1; information from the first 3 columns are found in Table 1. “Analysis Paper” refers to the analytical paper evaluating factors related to introduction success; “Secondary Citation Source” refers to the source cited by the Analytical Pap...

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals....

Vital rate sensitivity in relation to longevity of avian cooperative breeders. (DOC)

Effects of mortality level and carrying capacity on White-breasted Thrasher population size and time to extinction. Carrying capacity models correspond to past (1.2K), present (1K), and proposed future (0.8K and 0.17K) amounts of habitat available in the Mandelé range. All scenarios were run under baseline conditions (other than the varied carrying...

Effects of co-varying White-breasted Thrasher breeding success and adult survival on population persistence at 5, 20, and 200-year time frames under baseline conditions. Breeding success is the proportion of breeding females that have at least one successful brood per season. Note that simulations were run using adult mortality; survival (1-mortali...

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible...

While livetrapping is a vital field research tool, it is not a completely unbiased method of sampling. Biased trapping arises during field endocrinological studies whenever hormone levels or response influence the probability of capture of a subject. We repeatedly captured wild, free-living adult degus (Octodon degus) from the same location over 12...

Contemporary water management strategies call for the inclusion of ecological research in the decision-making process and emphasize environmentally sustainable management solutions. Most ecological information used in water management shares two problematic characteristics; 1) simplistic, phenomenological approaches and aggregated data that may not...

Population sizes and range of the native butterfly Pieris oleracea declined after habitat loss and parasitism by an exotic braconid wasp (Cotesia glomerata) introduced to control the exotic invasive butterfly Pieris rapae. Further declines are attributed to the invasive exotic weed garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), an oviposition sensory trap on...

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We report a Bayesian model where we consider the probability that each individual sighting is valid. Obtaining these probabilities clearly requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as represen...

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We report a Bayesian model where we consider the probability that each individual sighting is valid. Obtaining these probabilities clearly requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as represen...

Hormone receptors are a necessary (although not sufficient) part of the process through which hormones like corticosterone create physiological responses. However, it is currently unknown to what extent receptor concentrations across different target tissues may be correlated within individual animals. In this study, we examined this question using...

The Devil's Hole pupfish Cyprinodon diabolis has iconic status among conservation biologists because it is one of the World's most vulnerable species. Furthermore, C. diabolis is the most widely cited example of a persistent, small, isolated vertebrate population; a chronic exception to the rule that small populations do not persist long in isolati...

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Ca...

Applied ecologists routinely use demographic models to predict population trajectories. Survival rates throughout the life cycle, which are required for these models, are often difficult to obtain, especially for long-lived or mobile species. Detailed information for pre-adult age classes in particular is often lacking. Using a 20-year dataset from...

Professional societies of biologists, including ornithological societies, have struggled to determine the appropriate way to apply the expertise of their memberships in conservation, largely because of a tension between issue advocacy and pure science. Within societies, some argue for using science to promote conservation, and others worry that suc...

Wetland inventories are essential to understanding human effects on wetland distributions, estimating rates of wetland loss and setting recovery goals for endangered species. Wetlands in the Hawaiian archipelago (U.S.A.) support human water demands for agriculture, a rapidly expanding urban population, and 222 federally listed threatened or endange...

Objective: To predict effectiveness of 3 interventional methods of population control for feral cat colonies. Design: Population model. Sample: Estimates of vital data for feral cats. Procedures: Data were gathered from the literature regarding the demography and mating behavior of feral cats. An individual-based stochastic simulation model...