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Publications (185)
Background
Educational inequalities in major depressive disorder (MDD) pose a major challenge. Tackling this issue requires evidence on the long-term impact of intervening on modifiable factors, for example lifestyle and psychosocial factors. For this reason, we aimed to simulate the development of educational inequalities in MDD across the life co...
Extra sensorial influence? An empirical test employing intervention models
There is a problem in determining whether or not a particular event has any effect on certain social phenomena because of our lack of knowledge as to what would have happened if the event had not taken place. By means of intervention models it can be tested statistically whe...
Background
Educational inequalities in metabolic syndrome (MetS) are a growing public health concern. Intervening on modifiable factors may help reduce these inequalities, but there is a need for evidence on the long-term impact of intervening on these factors. Thus, we simulate the development of educational inequalities in MetS across the life co...
Background
Educational inequalities in major depressive disorder (MDD) pose a major challenge. Tackling this issue requires evidence on the long-term impact of intervening on modifiable factors, e.g. behavioural and psychosocial factors. Therefore, we aim to simulate the development of educational inequalities in MDD across the life course, and to...
After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a firs...
Introduction: In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years, and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to unreliable outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifest...
Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort...
In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years, and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to inaccurate outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle “epidemics...
Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period...
Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking...
Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, one may expect that differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions have increased. This paper examines whether differences in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 over the period 2003-20...
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The...
Met het nieuwe pensioenakkoord komt de regering tegemoet aan de kritiek op het rappe tempo van het verhogen van de AOW-leeftijd. De prijs die hiervoor betaald wordt door de regering is te overzien. Echter, het stelsel is voor velen te complex geworden, met als gevolg dat mensen niet meer weten wanneer ze nu met pensioen gaan.
Minister Koolmees heeft toegezegd om de koppeling van de AOW-leeftijd aan de levensverwachting tegen het licht te houden. Zo'n onderzoek zou mogelijk het overleg over een nieuw pensioenakkoord vlot kunnen trekken op het punt van de AOW. Onderzoek van het NIDI laat zien dat Nederlanders een verhoging van gemiddeld 1,2 jaar redelijk vinden als men vijf j...
The Dutch population forecasts published by Statistics Netherlands every other year project the future size and age structure of the population of the Netherlands up to 2050. The forecasts are based on assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration. Obviously, the validity of assumptions on changes in the long...
Previous research found evidence for a transition from mortality compression (declining lifespan variability) to mortality delay (increasing ages at death) in low-mortality countries. We specifically assessed the year at which increases in life expectancy at birth transitioned from being predominantly due to mortality compression to being predomina...
Minister Koolmees heeft toegezegd om de koppeling van de AOW-leeftijd aan de levensverwachting tegen het licht te houden. Zo'n onderzoek zou mogelijk het overleg over een nieuw pensioenakkoord vlot kunnen trekken. NIDI-onderzoekers De Beer, Van Dalen en Henkens nemen alvast een voorschot en presenteren een aantal alternatieven voor de huidige een-o...
Background:
Although mortality delay (the shift of the age-at-death distribution to older ages) and mortality compression (less variability in the age at death) are the key dynamics that drove past mortality trends, they have seldom been included in mortality projections.
Objective:
We compare the projections of a new parametric mortality model th...
Objective:
To determine whether older workers who follow different work ability (WA) trajectories tend to follow different retirement pathways.
Methods:
Nationally representative data on Americans born between 1943 and 1948. Latent class growth modeling to estimate trajectories of work ability between ages 53-54 and 65-66. Multinomial log-linear...
The four largest Dutch cities have grown considerably in recent years and it is expected that this will continue in the coming years. Who come and go have a big impact on the population of the cities. What would happen if nobody settled in the city anymore? Or whether nobody would leave anymore?
[De afgelopen jaren zijn de grote steden flink gegro...
Population growth in the Netherlands was not the same everywhere in recent decades. The major cities in the west (Randstad) have grown faster than the rest of the country. Is this because the Randstad attracts more and more people or is this due to the growing popularity of the city in general compared to the countryside? And how will this work out...
Dong et al. argue that there is a limit to human lifespan of around 115 years, with their main rationale being that the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) in Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States has not increased since 1995. However, this does not necessarily indicate that no one will survive beyond age 115 in the future. We sh...
De levensverwachting bij geboorte bedraagt op dit moment 80 jaar voor mannen en 83 jaar voor
vrouwen. Het bereiken van een leeftijd van rond de tachtig is tegenwoordig dus heel normaal. En een
op de vier mensen wordt ouder dan 90. Maar hebben we zelf wel door hoe lang we zullen leven? Vooral
hoogopgeleide vrouwen blijken hun eigen levensverwachti...
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but there is substantial regional variation in the process. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regio...
In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over th...
In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over th...
Vanaf 2016 wordt jaarlijks bekeken hoe sterk de AOW-leeftijd moet stijgen waarbij de levensverwachting de bepalende factor is. De facto komt de huidige koppeling erop neer dat iedere stijging van de levensverwachting vertaald wordt in een net zo sterke stijging in pensioenleeftijd. Volgens De Beer, Van Dalen en Henkens zal op lange termijn de balan...
Een nieuw kabinet doet er goed aan een meer evenwichtige koppeling aan te brengen tussen levensverwachting en AOW-leeftijd, betogen drie NIDI-onderzoekers. Laat de stijging in de levensverwachting niet alleen doorwerken in een langere arbeidscarrière maar ook in een langere pensioenperiode.
De AOW-leeftijd is de afgelopen jaren versneld verhoogd en die verhoging heeft gezorgd voor de nodig ophef. Oudere werknemers die dicht tegen hun pensioen aanzitten voelen zich danig bedrogen. NIDI-onderzoekers De Beer, Van Dalen en Henkens nemen deze boosheid serieus en ontrafelen de krachten die daarachter schuil kunnen gaan. Zij laten zien dat d...
To mitigate the effects of population ageing, measures aimed at encouraging people to work longer are being implemented in many countries. However, older people are usually in poorer physical health, and poorer physical health is associated with premature labour force withdrawal. We investigate whether the age-related decline in physical health rep...
BackgroundA decrease in mortality across all ages causes a shift of the age pattern of mortality, or mortality delay, while differences in the rate of decrease across ages cause a change in the shape of the age-at-death distribution, mortality compression or expansion. Evidence exists for both compression and delay of mortality. Existing parametric...
Gaining control over refugee flows and undocumented migrants currently dominate the media and political arenas in Europe. Underlying driving and enduring forces, such as employment-related migration pressure, tend to be relegated to the background. In this article, we explore migration pressure prospects up to 2035 in four countries with a traditio...
Traditional indicators of ageing misleads the population ageing scenario in different countries. New measurements of ageing either uses a constant remaining life expectancy to define elderly (Sanderson and Scherbov, 2005,2007) or define elderly based on the age distribution (Sanderson and Scherbov, 2005,2007). But, there are also cross-country diff...
BACKGROUND For allocation of health budgets it is important to know whether regional mortality differences tend to decline or to increase. Sigma convergence tests can measure whether the dispersion of the regional distribution of mortality has declined. Beta convergence tests can examine whether regions with a low level of life expectancy have expe...
Sinds vorige maand telt Nederland 17 miljoen inwoners. De verwachting is dat de bevolking de komende decennia nog doorgroeit naar 18 miljoen inwoners. De bevolkingsgroei is echter niet gelijkmatig over Nederland verdeeld geweest. De afgelopen 15 jaar groeide de bevolking vooral in de Randstad. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Den Haag en Utrecht kregen er sam...
Purpose: The moving rectangle method is used to disentangle the contributions of rectangularization and lifespan extension to the increase in life expectancy. It requires the choice of an endpoint of the survival curve that approaches the maximum age at death. We examined the effect of choosing different endpoints on the outcomes of this method.
M...
BACKGROUND Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often hampered by high data requirements. OBJECTIVE This paper d...
In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the Europe 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to c...
Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35-40 % of all NUTS2 regions wi...
This MEDPRO project report describes four population growth scenarios for 11 countries in the Mediterranean region, using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework to consider how indicators of fertility, mortality, and international migration might change if people in these countries were to live in different macro-economic and political...
Background: TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. Objective: This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other s...
Als het economisch goed gaat, besluiten meer mensen te trouwen, terwijl een recessie een negatief effect heeft op het aantal huwelijkssluitingen. De relatie tussen economie en echtscheiding lijkt minder eenduidig. Een recessie kan leiden tot meer echtscheidingen door financiële druk en stress. Maar, scheiden is ook duur. Als het economisch slechter...
The focus of this report is on population and development scenarios of MED11 countries for the period 2010-2050. More specifically, we address (1) design aspects of the MEDPRO population and development scenarios, and projection methodology, (2) main results of population scenarios for MED11 countries, including comparison with results of the UN me...
De belangrijkste oorzaak van de vergrijzing is de daling van het gemiddeld kindertal in de jaren zeventig. Een stijging van het kindertal biedt evenwel geen oplossing. Het leidt pas op de zeer lange termijn tot een geringe afzwakking van de vergrijzing, maar wel al op kortere termijn tot hogere kosten (o.a. onderwijs) en tot een aanzienlijk hogere...
Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international
migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration
data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces...
Age-specific fertility rates can be smoothed using parametric models or splines. Alternatively a relational model can be used which relates the age profile to be fitted or projected to a standard age schedule. This paper introduces TOPALS (tool for projecting age patterns using linear splines), a new relational method that is less dependent on the...
Uitgaande van veronderstellingen over de economische ontwikkeling in Nederland, de rol van de overheid en de aard van het migratie- en inburgeringsbeleid heeft het NIDI vier scenario's van de toekomst van multi-etnisch Nederland opgesteld.
Naast de getalsmatige ontwikkeling beschrijven de vier scenario's mogelijke gedragsreacties van verschillende...
Toen het regeerakkoord werd gepresenteerd heeft PVV-leider Wilders gesproken over een daling van de immigratie van nietwesterse allochtonen met 50 procent. Tijdens de formatie heeft een ambtelijke werkgroep geschat dat door de voorgestelde maatregelen de instroom van niet-westerse immigranten met slechts 5 à 15 procent zou kunnen dalen. Minister Le...
Bevolkingsprognoses kunnen worden verbeterd door een internationale vergelijking van ontwikkelingen in migratie, geboorte en levensverwachting. De betrouwbaarheid van een prognose van de migratie hangt af van de kwaliteit van migratiestatistieken. Die kwaliteit kan worden verbeterd door cijfers van verschillende landen te vergelijken. Een analyse v...
Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces...
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmoni...
This paper presents a comprehensive update of life expectancy and mortality in 2002-2004 in the modern European Union (EU-27) and EFTA countries. We focus on causes of death at younger ages (0-64 year). EUROSTAT delivered updated population numbers and mortality data by sex, age and cause of death for 272 NUTS-2 regions. We compared mortality by li...
In a recent article in this journal it was stated that Dutch women were sensible in having their first child between the ages of 25 and 35 years. One of the conclusions was that associated health risks increase after the age of 35 but are still acceptable even at the age of 40. We demonstrate that these conclusions were based on flawed assumptions....
Microsimulation is an increasingly popular tool in the social sciences. Individual behavior is described by a (commonly stochastic) model and subsequently simulated to study outcomes on the aggregate level. Demographic projections are a prominent area of application. Despite numerous available tools often new software is designed and implemented fo...
Het effect van de huidige economische crisis op de immigratie in Nederland is nog niet in cijfers te zien. Op grond van ervaringen in de afgelopen 30 jaar valt evenwel te verwachten
dat de toegenomen werkloosheid tot een daling van de immigratie zal leiden.
Due to family planning, Dutch women are increasingly having their first child between 25 and 35 years of age. Compared to 13 other EU countries, Dutch women are having fewer children both earlier and later on in life. From 1970 onwards in the Netherlands, the mean age at first childbirth has increased by 5 years to 29.4 years. The main cause for th...
IntroductionExtrapolationsExplanationsTypes of immigrationTypes of emigrationAssumptions on future changes in immigration and emigrationUncertaintyConclusion
References
The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period total fertility rate in the Netherlands has stabilized since the late 1970s at around 1.6 children p...
The number of Muslims in the Netherlands is growing faster than the rest of the population.Extrapolating this trend,some believe that Muslims will constitute a majority of the Dutch population in the future.How realistic is this expectation? Based on projections of the future number of migrants,it is easy to calculate that Muslims will remain a min...
Door gezinsplanning krijgen steeds meer Nederlandse vrouwen hun eerste kind tussen hun 25e en 35e jaar. Ook in vergelijking met vrouwen in 13 andere lidstaten van de Europese Unie krijgen zij op oudere én op jongere leeftijd minder kinderen.
– Moeders die nu hun eerste kind krijgen, zijn gemiddeld 29,4 jaar oud, 5 jaar ouder dan moeders die in 1970...
In recent years Statistics Netherlands has published several stochastic population forecasts. The degree of uncertainty of the future population is assessed on the basis of assumptions about the probability distribution of future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions on fertility are based on an analysis of historic forecasts of the t...
Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were
in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than
large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further un...
which are modeled by a linear spline function. The values of the spline function are estimated by dividing the average values of the transition rates for successive age groups by the average values of the standard age schedule of transition rates for the corresponding age groups. The standard age pattern can be calculated by averaging an age patter...
It is crucial to dispose of reliable methods for estimating mortality in regions of the world where statistics are limited or defective. Various direct and indirect methods are available, though the mortality estimates obtained for the Solomon Islands using these techniques produce results that do not correlate with levels recorded elsewhere in the...
Developed after application of standard mortality estimation methods revealed inconsistent results, the Intercensus Cohort Component Method (ICCM) is used to estimate annual life expectancies at birth in an intercensus period. It consists of three main steps. The first step entails the iterative projection of age distributions of one census to the...
In the Netherlands, between 1400 and 2200 deaths in the summer of 2003 may have been heat-related. The fact that the maximum temperatures were lower than in some other European countries, and occurred in less heavily populated areas, may have led to mortality figures that were relatively less dramatic. The temporarily increased death rates are only...
The most striking development of Dutch mortality in recent years has been the continuous rise in life expectancy for men and the stagnation for women. Another striking feature is the increase in mortality of the elderly aged 80 years or over which contrasts with the continuous declines observed in most other western European countries. When predict...
Since the 1960s fertility and family behaviour have changed drastically in Western-European countries. The changes include a decrease in the number of large families, an increase in childlessness and extra-marital childbearing, postponement of marriage and parenthood, and an increase in non-married cohabitation and in divorce. These developments ar...
In comparing family and fertility behaviour between European countries, some authors emphasise the similarity of trends across countries, whereas others argue that even though there are remarkable similarities, important inter-country differences persist. Most European countries have witnessed a postponement of marriage and parenthood and an increa...
The aim of Diversity in Family Formation is to examine changes in the start of the family formation process. Rather than giving a rough overview of demographic changes in many countries, a comparison of differences in changes in family formation and fertility behaviour between Belgium and The Netherlands is interesting for various reasons.
First, e...
PIP:
"Projections of the future number of asylum seekers [in the Netherlands] are very uncertain. This article examines how the number of asylum seekers can be projected. A distinction is made between projections for the short and for the long term.... This article introduces a model based on the assumption that there are two types of policy reacti...
PIP:
"The medium variant of the new Netherlands population forecasts for the period 1998-2050 projects that population size will increase to a maximum of 17.4 million around 2035.... In the new population forecasts population growth is higher due to higher numbers of births and lower numbers of deaths. Even though net migration will be lower than i...
Future demographic developments will have a major influence on economic and social conditions in Europe. Ageing, for example, affects consumption patterns, the demand for health care, pension schemes and labour supply. Population growth has an impact on the physical environment and the housing market while an increase in the population of foreign d...
At present, both similar and different demographic trends may be observed in Europe. On the one hand, many European countries have witnessed similar demographic trends in recent decades: fertility rates have declined, life expectancy has risen, the number of international migrants has increased, and populations have aged. On the other hand, there a...
On the threshold of a new century the organisers of the European Population Conference 1999 (EPC99) in The Hague decided not only to highlight the population trends that Europe is facing today but also the changes in the 21 st century that are set to shape the future of Europe. They decided to focus on comparative issues, both in time and in space....
