Ivan Krumov Todorov

Ivan Krumov Todorov
South-West University "Neofit Rilski" · Department of Finance and Accounting

Associate Professor, PhD in Economics (Finance)

About

98
Publications
24,665
Reads
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81
Citations
Citations since 2016
59 Research Items
78 Citations
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201620172018201920202021202205101520
Introduction
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ivan Todorov teaches Macroeconomics, Financial Analysis and Financial Modeling. His research interests are in the area of European Economic Integration and International Finance.
Additional affiliations
November 2013 - present
South-West University "Neofit Rilski"
Position
  • Chief Assistant Professor of Finance
November 2013 - November 2016
South-West University "Neofit Rilski"
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
September 2008 - November 2013
South-West University "Neofit Rilski
Position
  • Assistant Professor of Finance
Education
January 2007 - January 2010
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Field of study
  • Finance

Publications

Publications (98)
Article
Full-text available
The goal of this article is to study the group and the individual convergence of ten new member states - Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia (known as the NMS-10), to the fifteen old member states – Austria, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxe...
Article
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The goal of this paper is to analyze the influence of output structure similarity and nominal convergence on real convergence between Bulgaria and the Euro area. The objective of the research is achieved by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach on quarterly seasonally adjusted Eurostat data for the period 2003-2020. The empiric...
Article
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This article has two objectives: first, to find out whether the first twelve member states of the Euro area (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Greece) converge or diverge in terms of real per capita income as a group and individually; second, to identify the determinants of real...
Article
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The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria's economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999-2020. Four control variables (the shares of...
Article
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This study aims to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct tax revenue, indirect tax revenue and government consumption expenditure) on the economic growth of ten new European Union member states from Central and Eastern Europe– Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. We examin...
Article
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The goal of this paper is to study the effects of exchange rate arrangements and euro area (EA) membership on the economic growth of ten new member states (NMS) from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which joined the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007. Croatia is excluded from the analysis since it became a EU member relatively late-in 2013. A ve...
Preprint
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Bulgaria is far below its optimum level of government debt and can borrow, but only to finance effective public investment. Not for eating and drinking, as in recent decades. / България е далеч под оптималното си ниво на държавен дълг и може да взема заеми, но само за финансиране на ефективни публични инвестиции. Не за ядене и пиене, както в послед...
Preprint
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The average amount of government expenditure for the period 1996-2019 is 37.2% of GDP, with the lowest value being 30.4% of GDP in 1997 and the highest-43.3% of GDP in 2014. This means that the actual government expenditures are close to their optimal level, at least on average for the period under study. / Средният размер на държавните разходи за...
Article
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The purpose of the article is to perform an empirical assessment and comparative analysis of Okun’s Law for Bulgaria, Greece and Russia. Ordinary least squares regressions of time series data (from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2019 in Bulgaria and Greece, and from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2019 in Russia...
Preprint
Full-text available
България е малка и силно отворена икономика с национална валута, чийто курс е фиксиран към еврото. Последиците от това са няколко: първо, липсват автономни парична и валутнокурсова политика; второ, фискалната политика е единственият макроикономически инструмент за стимулиране на растежа и изглаждане на циклични колебания; трето, всички промени в ст...
Article
Full-text available
Employing quarterly seasonally adjusted Eurostat data for the period 1995-2020, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the correlations between the output gap and the changes in the trend shares and the cyclical shares of total income tax revenue in GDP, this paper attempts to compare the cyclical impact of progressive and proportional income taxes in Bul...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Bulgaria’s output gap, on the one hand, and Bulgaria’s fiscal balance and changes in government expenditure, on the other hand. An autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), a vector autoregression (VAR) and quarterly seasonally and calendar adjusted Eurostat data for the per...
Article
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Macroeconomic management of a small open economy in a currency board arrangement faces two serious problems: first, under a fixed exchange rate, fiscal policy is the only effective macroeconomic instrument for smoothing out the business cycle; second, the twin deficits phenomenon, if it exists, may jeopardize the stability of the currency board arr...
Article
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The goal of this research is to find out what determines monetary conditions in Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement – the automatic adjustment mechanism of the orthodox currency boards or discretionary policies of the government and the central bank. A time series vector autoregression for the period 1998-2018 is employed in order to invest...
Preprint
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Article
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The present study analyzes the legal framework, which regulates social entrepreneurship in the European Union and the Republic of Bulgaria. Over the last years, legislation in this area has been rapidly developing, providing better opportunities for economic and social realization of individuals with disabilities. The main goal of a social enterpri...
Article
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The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the international economic conjuncture on Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle. A vector autoregression (VAR) is employed to identify the main factors, which affect the growth and cyclicality of Bulgaria, the size and the direction of their impact. The cause-and-effect links between...
Article
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The study analyzes the long-run and short-run tax buoyancies of Bulgaria and their relationship with Bulgaria's economic growth. The buoyancy measures the response of tax revenue to changes in economic growth. The buoyancy indicates whether col-lectability of the tax on income, profit, and consumption increases. The object of this study is the coll...
Article
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The options for monetary discretion under the Bulgarian currency board arrangement (CBA) were analysed. A vector autoregression (VAR) was employed to identify the determinants of money supply in Bulgaria for the period 1998-2018. The results of the study imply that the movements of money supply in Bulgaria do not automatically follow the dynamics o...
Preprint
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Socio-economic development of Bulgaria over the last 150 years
Conference Paper
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Статията анализира дългосрочната и краткосрочната връзка на приходите от пропорционален подоходен данък след неговото приемане и икономическият растеж в България през 2008 година. Резултатите показват, че събираемостта на приходите от пропорционален данък и икономическият растеж в дългосрочен период са в равновесие. В краткосрочен период събираемос...
Article
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Since the establishment of the European Economic Community in 1957, the organization's primary goal has been to provide a socially acceptable standard of living for people. Social policy was defined in the Single European Act and the Social Charter adopted by the European Commission in 1989. The legal framework of the European Social Policy has bee...
Article
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The specific design of the Bulgarian currency board arrangement (CBA), which provides an opportunity for the Bulgarian government to conduct discretionary monetary policy by changes in the fiscal reserve, was analyzed. The impact of government deposit fluctuations on the dynamics of reserve money and interbank interest rates was investigated. The h...
Article
Since the establishment of the European Economic Community in 1957, the organization's primary goal has been to provide a socially acceptable standard of living for people. Social policy was defined in the Single European Act and the Social Charter adopted by the European Commission in 1989. The legal framework of the European Social Policy has bee...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This research compares the monetary conditions in Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement (CBA) with the monetary condition that would have existed in Bulgaria if the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) followed a monetary policy based on the rules of Taylor and McCallum. Study results show that if the whole period of investigation (1999-2017) is con...
Article
Full-text available
В настоящата разработка е използвана векторна авторегресия (VAR), за да се оцени доколко икономическият цикъл на България е синхронизиран с този на еврозоната (ЕЗ). Идентифицирани са основ-ните фискални и монетарни фактори, въздействащи върху координацията на бизнес циклите на България и ЕЗ. Формулирани са препоръки за макроикономически политики, к...
Article
Full-text available
In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria's economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated...
Article
Full-text available
The cyclical position and the business cycle phase of Bulgaria have been estimated using two new approaches, which combine a production function and a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results obtained following the two approaches are similar and close to the estimates of national, European and international financial institutions. Recommendations have...
Preprint
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Book
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The monograph analyzes the economic growth and the business cycle of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement as well as the impact of the European Union Cohesion policy on the Bulgarian economy.
Data
The output gaps of Bulgaria and the Euro area: an increasing business cycle synchronization
Article
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The goal of this article is to date Bulgaria’s business cycle and create a model for forecasting it. The objects of the article are the determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phases from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2016. The subject of the study is the influence of the interest spread, oil prices, building permits, the sto...
Article
Full-text available
The chances for fiscal and monetary influence on the business cycle of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement have been analyzed. The determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phase and output gap from the first quarter of 2000 till the second quarter of 2017 have been identified. The effects of minimum reserve requirements, fiscal balance, go...
Article
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Bulgaria’s potential output and cyclical position for the period 2010-2015 are estimated by a methodology based on a two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function. An IS-LM model of the Bulgarian economy is developed to study the condition of the different types of markets (labor market, goods market and money market). During the entire period 2010-2...
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Article
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The present research has two objectives: first, to study the short-term and the long-term economic growth of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement and second, to identify the main sources of this growth on the demand-side and on the supply-side of the economy. The empirical research on Bulgaria’s economic growth during the transition to a mar...
Article
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The study analyzes the process of monetary integration of the New Member Countries from the moment of their accession to the European Union. The focus of investigation is on the nominal convergence (the fulfillment of the Maastricht criteria) and on the satisfaction of the Optimum Currency Area criteria by the New Member States. More specifically,...
Article
Full-text available
The present article discusses five equilibrium approaches to estimating elasticities in Bulgaria’s aggregate production function. The study has two objectives: first, to identify the best equilibrium approach to calculating elasticities in Bulgaria’s aggregate production function; and second, to measure quantitatively the contributions of capital,...
Book
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Chapter
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The goal of this article is to identify the contributions of capital stock, labor input and technological progress to Bulgaria’s economic growth under a Currency Board Arrangement. In order to accomplish the goal of the paper, a growth accounting approach based on a two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function is employed. Recommendations are made o...
Data
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Article
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Целта на настоящето изследване е да идентифицира основните детерминантина икономическия растеж в България от страната на предлагането в периода на паричниясъвет. За постигане на целта на изследването агрегираната производствена функция набългарската икономика е оценена по два подхода – иконометричен (метод на най-малкитеквадрати) и равновесен (счет...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The objective of this study is to identify the main supply-side determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth in the period of the currency board arrangement. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the aggregate production function of the Bulgarian economy has been estimated by two methods – ordinary least squares (OLS) and growth accounting...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The present article discusses five equilibrium approaches to estimating elasticities in Bulgaria’s aggregate production function. The study has two objectives: first, to identify the best equilibrium approach to calculating elasticities in Bulgaria’s aggregate production function; and second, to measure quantitatively the contributions of capital,...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this study is to identify the main supply-side determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth in the period of the currency board arrangement. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the aggregate production function of the Bulgarian economy has been estimated by two methods –least squares and growth accounting.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to identify the contributions of capital stock, labor input and technological progress to Bulgaria’s economic growth under a Currency Board Arrangement. In order to accomplish the goal of the article, a growth accounting approach based on a two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function is employed. The results obtained...
Data
Full-text available
Article
Full-text available
The goal of this article is to identify the contributions of capital stock, labor input and technological progress to Bulgaria’s economic growth under a Currency Board Arrangement. In order to accomplish the goal of the paper, a growth accounting approach based on a two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function is employed. Recommendations are made o...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to outline the main macroeconomic trends in the new member countries of the European Union before the Euro Area debt crisis. In order to achieve this objective, the developments in a wide range of macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, foreign trade, monetary policy, inflation, price levels, and fiscal balances, so...
Article
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An attempt is made to outline the role and importance of exchange rate regimes on the way to the Euro. The differences between the concepts “currency regime” and “exchange rate regime” are clarified. The types of currency regimes and exchange rate regimes are systematized. The relationships of exchange rate regime with macroeconomic tools and the B...
Article
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This investigation uses panel data to measure the effects of financial integration, trade and specialization on business cycle convergence between the new member states outside the Euro area, and the Euro area. Some of our empirical results agree with economic theory and some do not. We attempt to put an emphasis on the empirical results that are n...
Article
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This paper analyses the process of monetary integration of the New Member States in the European Union till the beginning of the Euro Area debt crisis. The focus of investigation is on the nominal convergence (the fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria) and on the satisfaction of the Optimum Currency Area criteria by the New Member States. More spec...
Article
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The type of the exchange rate regime has specific impact on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy and on the integration of national economies in economic unions and currency areas. Currency board arrangement (CBA) is a hard form of currency peg, where monetary policy does not work and only fiscal policy is effective. The characteristics of mac...
Article
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This paper analyzes the perspectives of a Euro area membership for Bulgaria by systematizing the reasons for the debt crisis and by reviewing the macroeconomic specificity of Bulgaria. The focus of investigation is on institutional and structural causes of the crisis. Recommendations are made on possible crisis-exit strategies and on the macroecono...
Article
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The paper analyzes the macroeconomic specifics of the integration of Bulgaria into the European Union. It describes the necessity of integrating a small country like Bulgaria in a regional integration union like EU. It presents the macroeconomic benefits and costs of the EU membership for our country. The paper discusses the readiness of Bulgaria f...
Conference Paper
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The present report focuses on the reasons for and the consequences of the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. Structural imbalances between the core and the periphery of the Euro area and the lack of fiscal integration are the main reasons for the crisis. After the creation of the EA its peripheral members borrowed large sums of money, mainly from for...
Article
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The development of the concepts in the international economic integration are analyzed. The liberal, regulatory and institutional theories of economic integration and the optimum currency area theory are presented. The Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership, the Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the optimum currency area criteria are investigated.
Conference Paper
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The present report focuses on the structural and institutional dimensions of the government debt crisis in the Euro area. Structural asymmetries between the core and the periphery of the Euro area and the lack of fiscal integration are the main reasons for the crisis. Adequate solutions to the crisis require systematic approach and strategic decisi...
Article
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Under a currency board arrangement, state budget is the only tool of macroeconomic policy. Main defects in budget structures and their social and economic effects have been outlined. An attempt has been made to analyze the basic problems in the budget and fiscal policies of Bulgaria and recommend adequate solutions to these problems.
Thesis
Full-text available
Theoretical views on economic integration criteria, trade integration, financial integration and business cycle convergence have been systematized. It has been established that when assessing the readiness of the new member states to join the Euro area the Maastricht criteria should be combined with the optimum currency area criteria. It has been p...
Article
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The dynamics of some of Bulgaria’s macroeconomic indicators after the global financial crisis has been analyzed. An attempt has been made to highlight the basic opportunities and threats for Bulgarian economy under a sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area.
Conference Paper
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The present report tries to summarize the research into financial integration of the NMS from the standpoint of optimal currency area theory.
Conference Paper
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The condition and characteristics of labor markets are crucial to the successful functioning of a monetary union. The present report tries to assess the readiness of the NMS for a Euro area membership from the standpoint of the peculiarities of their labor markets.
Article
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The main features of the macroeconomic objectiveness in the process of new member-countries integration into the EU are being analyzed. Recommendations have been made for the macroeconomic policies which the member countries should follow in the conditions of a global financial crisis.
Article
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The article proves that international financial system provokes unsustainable development on the global scale. The causes for the global crisis are analyzed and its historical significance is revealed. A reform of the system of international finance is proposed in order to achieve a worldwide sustainability.
Article
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The activity of transnational corporations is accompanied by many adverse externali ties, which have a negative impact on nature and society. The present article reviews these externalities and puts forward some forms of international regulation of corporate activity.
Conference Paper
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This report outlines the physical-geographic peculiarities and natural resources of the Pirin Mountain. The legendary Pirin is one of the most majestic and fascinating Bulgarian mountains. The impressive peaks, the pinnacles, the valleys, the pure and limpid alpine lakes, the rivers, the dizzy ridges, the abundant flora and fauna have become an int...
Conference Paper
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Sustainability is a topic of an increasing global and local significance but it is still marginalized in tourism teaching in the world and in Bulgaria. In countries such as the United Kingdom, community, government, nongovernmental organizations and businesses have understood sustainability importance and their combined efforts will soon result in...
Article
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A reduction in world poverty is an internationally agreed priority and targets have been set to halve poverty by the year 2015. In the first quarter of 2005, 49.1% of Bulgarian households were poor. Apparently, poverty is a heavy problem for Bulgaria and for the world. Tourism is one of the world’s largest industries, generating an estimated 11% o...

Questions

Questions (9)
Question
I want to specify a model to forecast the business cycle phase. How should I select the type of model (Logit or Probit)?
Question
I intend to empirically investigate the factors which affect Bulgaria's business cycle. Can you direct me to empirical studies where the business cycle phase is a binary dependent variable?
Question
For ages economic science has been swaying between two monsters - the Market and the State. The lack of alternative visions and theories, which go beyond the space between the two extremities (Pure Capitalism and Command Economy) is quite disturbing. I cannot believe that the best economists can do is a desperate convulsion between Scylla and Charybdis.  
Question
I am trying to develop an IS-LM model of the Bulgarian economy. I believe that research applying the IS-LM model to the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe could be of great help to my investigation.
Question
In your view, which structure of GDP (income or final expenditure) provides more reliable estimates of elasticities of GDP with respect to capital and labor in the aggregate production function by the equilibrium method?

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Projects (6)
Project
These are the scientific works I wrote before I obtained my doctoral degrees. Then I placed a strong emphasis on the shortcomings of capitalist system and looked for ways to reform it.
Project
My books...