Iván Noguera

• PhD
• PostDoc at UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Flash droughts are characterized by rapid onset and intensification, as well as major environmental and agricultural impacts. In this study, we developed an objective method for identifying flash droughts using the standardized evaporation precipitation index (SPEI) based on a short time scale (1‐month) and high‐frequency data (weekly). The identif...

Flash drought is the result of strong precipitation deficits and/or anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), which triggers a rapid decline in soil moisture and stresses vegetation over short periods of time. However, little is known about the role of precipitation and AED in the development of flash droughts. For this paper, we...

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), based on atmospheric evapo-rative demand, was proposed by Hobbins et al. (2016) to analyse and monitor drought. The EDDI uses a nonparametric approach in which empirically derived probabilities are converted to standardized values. This study evaluates the suitability of eight probability distributions t...

Flash droughts are characterized by rapid development and intensification, generating a new risk for drought impacts on natural and socio‐economic systems. In the current climate change scenario, the meteorological drivers involved in triggering flash droughts are uncertain. We analyzed the role of meteorological drivers underlying the development...

Flash droughts are characterized by rapid development and intensification, which makes early warning and monitoring difficult. Flash drought monitor (FDM) is a near-real time monitoring system for Spain (https://flash-drought.csic.es) based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Flash drought identification was based on...

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future¹. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2, 3–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anth...

This study analyses the evolution of annual streamflow across Europe between 1962 and 2017, focusing on the connection of streamflow trends with climate dynamics and physiographic and land cover characteristics and changes. The spatial pattern of trends in streamflow shows strong agreement with the spatial patterns of climate trends, suggesting a c...

Flash droughts (FDs) are distinguished by a rapid development associated with strong precipitation deficits and/or increases in atmospheric evaporative demand in the short‐term, but little is known about the atmospheric conditions underlying these events. In this study, we analyse for the first time the atmospheric dynamics involved in the developm...

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yi...

Flash droughts have been the subject of a great deal of scientific attention in the last decade, but the greatest emphasis has been on relatively dry climates. Here, we characterised the occurrence of this type of rapid-onset drought events in a more humid setting, the United Kingdom (UK), for the period 1969–2021. Our results show that flash droug...

This study provides a global analysis of the relationship between drought metrics obtained from several climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables in a climate change framework using CMIP6 model data. A comprehensive analysis of the evolution of drought severity on a global scale is carried out for the historical experiment (1850–2014) and for f...

This study analyzes the long‐term observed changes of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures, relative humidity (RH) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) at different elevation ranges across Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. The linear trends in air temperature series present a significant increase, with no substantial seasonal or s...

In 1639, the German naturalist Georg Marcgraf established the first astronomical observatory in the Americas, located in Recife (Brazil). There, he made the first daily systematic meteorological observations of wind direction, precipitation, fog, and thunder and lightning from 1640 to 1642. We outline the circumstances that led to this observatory...

This study provides a global analysis of drought metrics obtained from several climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables in a climate change framework using CMIP6 model data. A comprehensive analysis of the evolution of drought severity on a global scale is carried out for the historical experiment (1850-2014) and for future simulations under a...

Using observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitation is characterized by strong interannual and deca...

Using observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitation is characterized by strong interannual and deca...

Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteo...

Drought monitoring systems are real‐time information systems focused on drought severity data. They are useful for determining the drought onset and development and defining the spatial extent of drought at any time. Effective drought monitoring requires databases with high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial and temporal coverage. Re...

This study provides a long-term (1891–2014) global assessment of precipitation trends using data from two station-based gridded datasets and climate model outputs evolved through the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Our analysis employs a variety of modeling groups that incorporate...

Drought monitoring is essential to determine, at short time intervals, the main characteristics of drought events, such as their duration, severity, and spatial distribution. To ensure that drought monitoring represents a useful tool for governmental plans aimed at preventing or minimizing drought impacts, up-to-date information must be instantaneo...

Preparedness against floods in nearly pristine socio-hydrological systems The relations between preparedness and psycho-social attributes of people and communities exposed to river floods in a nearly pristine socio-hydrological system were investigated, applying hydrological-hydraulic analysis of flood risk in combination with results from a survey...

The dynamics of blue and green water partitioning under vegetation and climate change, as well as their different interactions during wet and dry periods, are poorly understood in the literature. We analyzed the impact of vegetation changes on blue water generation in a central Spanish Pyrenees basin undergoing intense afforestation. We found that...

The availability of water resources is a major challenge of the Mediterranean region. Intense land use transformation has impacted the headwaters of river basins that generate most of the water resources, reducing streamflow This study analyses the evolution of hydrological and climatic drought in headwater catchments of Spain and it explores the e...

Climate proxy data are required for improved understanding of climate variability and change in the pre-instrumental period. We present the first international initiative to compile and share information on pro pluvia rogation ceremonies, which is a well-studied proxy of agricultural drought. Currently, the database has more than 3500 dates of cele...

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), based on atmospheric evaporative demand, was proposed by Hobbins et al. (2016) to analyse and monitor drought. The EDDI uses a nonparametric approach in which empirically derived probabilities are converted to standardized values. This study evaluates the suitability of eight probability distributions to...

We analyzed the impacts of drought severity on a variety of sectors in a topographically complex basin (the upper Aragón basin 2,181 Km²) in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Using diverse data sources including meteorological and hydrological observations, remote sensing and tree rings, we analyse the possible hydrological implications of drought occu...

The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is one of the well‐established drought metrics worldwide. It is simply computed using precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) data. Although AED is considered a key driver of drought variability worldwide, it could have less impact on drought in specific regions and for p...

We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850–2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the...

We analysed long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851–2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI‐3 and SPI‐12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and...

Monitoring and management of several environmental and socioeconomic sectors require climate data that can be summarized using a set of standard and meaningful climate metrics. This study describes a newly developed gridded dataset for the whole of Europe, which employed a set of 125 climate indices spanning different periods based on data availabi...

There is a strong scientific debate on how drought will evolve under future climate change. Climate model outputs project an increase in drought frequency and severity by the end of the 21st century. However, there is a large uncertainty related to the extent of the global land area that will be impacted by enhanced climatological and hydrological...

Attribution of trends in streamflow is complex, but essential, in identifying optimal management options for water resources. Disagreement remains on the relative role of climate change and human factors, including water abstractions and land cover change, in driving change in annual streamflow. We construct a very dense network of gauging stations...

This study describes a newly developed high-resolution (1.1 km) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset for the peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands (Sp_1km_NDVI). This dataset is developed based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA–AVHRR) afternoon images, spanning the past t...

Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain, with significant impacts on crop yield, forest growth, and the occurrence of forest fires. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of vegetation to drought conditions differs largely amongst vegetation types and climates. We used a high-resolution (1.1 km) spatial dataset of the normalized difference...

This study documents the impacts of engineering works on flood risk and channel dynamics of the maximum geomorphic flow reach of the Middle Ebro River (Spain) over the last ninety years. The map reveals how the construction of transversal transport lines and their ineffective design and maintenance has contributed to an elevated risk of flooding an...

Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain, with significant impacts on crop yield, forest growth, and the occurrence of forest fires. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of vegetation to drought conditions differs largely amongst vegetation types and climates. We used a high-resolution (1.1km) spatial dataset of the Normalized Difference V...

Ephemeral rivers are not just hydro-geomorphological systems of interest because of their intrinsic value but also for its problems related to the flash floods events which generate risk situations. Seco River is representative of ephemeral streams in Aragón (Spain), where they are abundant but lack of previous studies from fluvial geomorphology. I...