Ivan William KellyUniversity of Saskatchewan | U of S
Ivan William Kelly
BEd (Dist), MSc, PhD
About
104
Publications
145,441
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
1,325
Citations
Introduction
An emigrant from Britain to Canada when a very young bloke. Obtained PhD after a non-linear path including being an (unusually bad) bass guitarist, and even worse singer, in a short-lived rock music group. University background in psychology, mathematics/statistics, research methods and philosophy (extensive philosophy coursework at both undergraduate and graduate levels). Taught mathematically gifted students in the US for eight summers early in his career. Other (continuing) interests are world history, cognitive psychology, ethics, non-Western philosophy, technology and society, philosophy of science, science fiction and world literature. He is an interdisciplinary scholar with articles in leading journals in several different fields including mathematics, philosophy and psychology.
Skills and Expertise
Additional affiliations
July 1978 - July 2014
Position
- Professor
Description
- He has collaborated on research with academics from Canada, England, Scotland, the Netherlands, Finland, United States, Germany, Australia and Belgium.
July 1978 - July 2014
Position
- Professor
Description
- Publications on eating disorders, science and mathematics education, middle age, cognitive biases, developmental theory, philosophy, health, and critical thinking. Some translated into other languages: Danish, Spanish and Australian.
Publications
Publications (104)
This study examined the views of 132 undergraduate students (35 men, 97 women) regarding what they considered to be contributing factors to a worthwhile or meaningful life. They rated, on a 5-point Likert scale, their agreement with each of 40 statements. Cluster analysis yielded three clusters which best described the data. One cluster comprised a...
Abstract: In this paper, we will illustrate the use and power of Hidden Markov models in analyzing multivariate data over time. The data examined here was obtained from the Cansim CHASS database of Statistics Canada and encompasses monthly data on the number of employed persons (both sexes combined; aged 15 years and over; Estimate; Seasonally adju...
A critique of the pseudoscience of astrology. Contemporary Western astrology is an example of a confirmatory approach bar none. Negative criticism and negative studies play no role in astrology, only positive studies count.
An interest in gambling has greatly increased over the last few decades with the more common use of slot machines and online gambling, especially sports betting. A concern that has been publically raised is addiction and eventual gambler's ruin (loss of all money). In this paper we provide a solution to the Gambler's Ruin problem in regards to roul...
In this paper we will consider several gambling games to illustrate the techniques of computing probabilities (counting techniques, rules of probability etc.).We will compute for each gambling game the expected percentage return in prize money relative to initial bet size. We will illustrate that percentage return for Casino games is much higher th...
A short recursive analysis of the notion of Gamblers Ruin, where a gambler can lose all their money. Will be of interest for those students and instructors of probability.
The claim that astrology involves as above so below, or psy�chic powers or transcendental mental faculties or realities or special links with the divine or other mysteries, achieves no more than smokescreen status. That said, astrology could hardly be better suited to the scientific study of pseudoscience. In terms of longevity and ongoing populari...
Regression analysis plays a central role in statistics and our understanding of the world. Linear regression models are the simplest type of regression and an understanding of them is an essential basis for more advanced models. In this article we will show how to use Excel to generate data from a simple linear regression model and illustrate how t...
A common view of recent astrology is that it its main appeal comes from it as a source of meaning and/or spiritual guidance in the life of the client (or native), rather than claims of factual accuracy. On this view, the birth chart functions as an exploratory discussion tool with both astrologer and client discussing the chart together. This artic...
The reliability and validity of the the sex-role egalitarianism scale (SRES). This scale is a
multi-item scale measuring egalitarian attitudes
regarding men’s and women’s roles in society.
The popular belief that our mind either depends on or (in stronger terms) is identical with brain functions and processes, along with the belief that advances in technological in virtual reality and computability will continue, has contributed to the contention that one-day (perhaps this century) it may be possible to transfer one's mind (or a simu...
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an immense effect on the health (financial, physical, and psychological) of almost every country in the world. It is therefore important for governments (administrations) to monitor the progress of this pandemic and to determine the effects of their efforts in controlling the consequences of the pandemic. In this paper...
Sleep is an essential component of health and well-being. This study examines insomnia in a sub-sample of 15 to 19 year old participants (n=2,866) using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS): Mental Health and Well-being (Cycle 1.2). A multivariate analysis showed insomnia to be significantly associated with the presence of a chroni...
Data on violence against women was obtained for 207 communities across Western Canada over the years 2008 to 2015. A k-means cluster analysis was used to identify communities with similarities of reported police violence. Three clusters were uncovered that were related to latitude and population size.
Earlier articles, Laverty, Miket, Kelly (2002c), Laverty and Kelly (2019) used Excel to simulate Hidden Markov models and calculate the probabilities of the unknown states using the forward and backward algorithms (Rabiner, 1989). In those articles, independence between observations in each state were assumed. In many situations, however, the assum...
An overview of the simulation hypothesis, the view that our reality is not what we think it is. A useful resource for those those interested in the topic. The article is wide-ranging covering a number of perspectives on the topic. An annotated refence section is included.
A short presentation on cyborg technology and some possible implications of such technologies for our lives. The aim of the paper is to promote discussion among readers from a variety of backgrounds.
In our earlier article (Laverty, Miket, & Kelly, 2002) [4] we used Excel to simulate Hidden Markov models and showed different realizations of hidden states (with differing means and standard deviations) in data. In this follow-up, we show how Excel can be used to simulate the states and calculate the probabilities of the unknown states and visuall...
Suicide is a serious social problem across the world. In this article we examine suicide rates in three Western countries over a longer period of time than is typically considered to determine if extended underlying patterns are discernable. Since assumptions of traditional time series analyses are likely violated with such long-term data, we have...
To understand any statistical tool requires not only an understanding of the relevant computational procedures but also an awareness of the assumptions upon which the procedures are based, and the effects of violations of these assumptions. In our earlier articles (Laverty, Miket, & Kelly [1]) and (Laverty & Kelly, [2] [3]) we used Microsoft Excel...
Longitudinal data are available in many disciplines, and quite often the mechanism generating the data are changing over time. These changes must be accounted for when modelling the data and subsequently drawing conclusions from the data. The three statistical models described in this article (GARCH, HMM, ARHMM) are appropriate modelling data with...
Philosophers often focus on topics such as death and old age, and much less on other stages of life. The British-American philosopher Kienan Setiya (2017) has recently taken on the topic of middle age from a philosophical perspective and offered suggestions for dealing with the angst often associated with mid-age. His suggestions are based on both...
In this paper, we will illustrate the use and power of Hidden Markov models in analyzing multivariate data over time. The data used in this study was obtained from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD. Stat database url: https://stats.oecd.org/) and encompassed monthly data on the employment rate of males and females in...
ABSTRACT
McRitchie (2016) mistakes our 2003 JCS article 'Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi' for an attack on astrology when it merely asks if the performance of astrologers has implications for consciousness and psi. For example, he attempts to validate astrology by citing studies we ignored (they were irrelevant to our investigation)...
Sleep is an essential component of health and well-being. This study examines insomnia in a sub-sample of 15 to 19 year old participants (n=2,866) using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS): Mental Health and Well-being (Cycle 1.2). A multivariate analysis showed insomnia to be significantly associated with the presence of a chroni...
The use of prescribed psychotropic medication is patterned according to socio-demographic characteristics among elderly Canadians. However, little is known about prescribed multiple psychotropic drug use patterns among the working age population. This gap is important to address given that multiple drug use is related to more side effects. The purp...
While previous research has indicated the prevalence of both sleep problems and sleeping pill usage increases with age, and that women use more sleeping medicines than men, this research has focused on single variable (main effect) analyses and ignored how various factors may interact together to influence sleeping medicine usage. Our results have...
Psychology is a social science that can be distinguished from other claimants to knowledge by its public testing of claims, its internal encouragement of critical evaluation, and the refined conceptual structure of its theories based on public studies and criticism. Psychology is contrasted with the pseudoscience of present-day mainstream astrology...
The purpose of this chapter will be to critically review the research that examines the relationship between unpaid domestic work and psychological distress. The conceptual and methodological challenges and limitations of this body of literature which need to be addressed in order to advance the field will be described.
The aim of this study was to compare levels of psychological distress in employed single fathers relative to partnered fathers and to explore the role of psychosocial job quality, work-family conflict, and work-family facilitation as explanations for differences in distress. The data were collected from a cross-sectional telephone survey conducted...
A large body of research has examined the relationship between work and physical and mental health outcomes, including psychological distress. While the main bulk of this research has addressed paid work, more recently unpaid domestic work (e.g. housework, childrearing) has also been considered. An understanding of the relationship between domestic...
Research suggests that the perception of being pressed for time is increasing in many Western societies and that such perceptions are linked with social and mental well-being. The aim of this study was to clar-ify the family and work-related characteristics associated with perceived time pressure in a sample of Ca-nadian working mothers and fathers...
The vast majority of studies examining the social and economic patterning of prescribed psychotropic drug use in general populations utilize only main effects. On average, these studies have shown use of antidepressants to be greater among women, those who are widowed/divorced/separated, and those of lower socioeconomic positions (SEP). Few studies...
The vast majority of studies examining the social and economic patterning of prescribed psychotropic drug use in general populations utilize only main effects. On average, these studies have shown use of antidepressants to be greater among women, those who are widowed/divorced/separated, and those of lower socioeconomic positions (SEP). Few studies...
Critical Thinking Education and Assessment: Can Higher Order Thinking Be Tested? edited by SobocanJan and GroarkeLeo (with JohnsonRalph H. and ElletFrederick S.Jr.) Alymer, ON: Althouse, 2009, xv + 355 pp., $42.95 (Paperback) - Volume 50 Issue 1 - Ivan W. Kelly
The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship among Effort, Reward, and Overcommitment dimensions of Siegrist's Effort-Reward Imbalance Model and Psychological Distress in a sample of 78 Canadian police officers. Ages of respondents ranged between 24 and 56 years (M=36.1, SD=8.0). 30% of respondents had been in policing for 16 ye...
The present study examined the relations among sex, work-family conflict, and psychological distress in 78 Canadian police officers (50 men and 28 women). The average age of the officers was 36.1 yr. (SD=8.0), and nearly one-third of the respondents had been in policing 16 years or more. Ordinary least-squares regression was conducted to examine th...
Many astrologers attribute a successful birth-chart reading to what they call intuition or psychic ability, where the birth chart acts like a crystal ball. As in shamanism, they relate consciousness to a transcendent reality that, if true, might require a re-assessment of present biological theories of consciousness. In Western countries roughly 1...
This study examined the relationships, using regression analysis, among bulimic symptomatology, body-image characteristics, and personality factors in a nonclinical sample of 46 undergraduate university men. They completed the Bulimia Test-Revised (a measure of bulimic symptomatology), the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (a measure of per...
Laverty, Kelly, Rotton, and Flynn conducted a regression analysis in 1992 on 9 years of automobile accidents in Saskatchewan (a total of 200,545 accidents) to find a small linear trend, season effects, holiday, and day of the week effects. The application of a hidden Markov model to the residuals of this analysis uncovered two states which are like...
The paper demonstrates the use of functions provided by EXCEL for simulation of two types of hidden Markov models. The graphical capabilities of EXCEL are then used to visualize the simulated models. The power of spreadsheet simulation comes through the fact that any change in the parameters defining a hidden Markov model can be seen immediately in...
Three years of daily crisis calls (N=2,513,478) were examined in a regression analysis with terms for effects for weekday, end and beginning of the month, holiday, seasonal trend, and long-term linear trend. This was followed by an analysis of residuals using hidden Markov models, with three states best fitting the residuals. These states may refle...
Canadian College of Education students (N = 295; M age = 20.9 yr.) and classroom teachers (n = 84; M age = 41.5 yr.) were asked to give estimates of the prevalence of learning disabilities in the schools. A factorial analysis of variance indicated that education students gave significantly higher estimates than teachers and that the sex of the stud...
295 first- and fourth-year students in the College of Education at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada were asked to describe learning disabilities. When the descriptors they used were categorized, nonparticipation in the classroom formed the largest single category.
The survival and longevity of astrology has been dependent on an astrological community that will, under no circumstances, allow it to fail. Consequently, a large array of ad hoc hypotheses (escape routes) have been marshaled over the years to prevent contrary evidence from being used to confront central tenets of astrology. The result is a closed...
Nine years of traffic accidents involving damage to property (n = 246,926 accidents) and involving nonfatal injury (n = 50,492) in Saskatchewan were examined by regression and spectral analyses. Both calendar and seasonal periodicities were found in both sets of data. After data were adjusted for calendar effects, no relationship was found with the...
Astrology, as presently practiced (in either its traditional or psychological form), has no relevance to understanding ourselves or our place in the cosmos. Modern advocates of astrology cannot account for the underlying basis of astrological associations with terrestrial affairs, have no plausible explanation for its claims, and have not contribut...
An earlier investigation indicated that the education students in this sample gave estimates of the prevalence of learning disabilities that were 4 times greater than those given by experts. In the present study, we identified the sources of information these students used to conceptualize and estimate the prevalence of these disabilities. These 14...
146 women and 47 men were given the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and the Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations. Neuroticism accounted for 37% of the variance in emotion-focused coping. Personality was not a substantial predictor of other coping strategies.
Total daily crisis calls were recorded over a 3-year period in Vancouver. Data from the first 2 years were examined using spectral analysis and regression analysis on sine and cosine functions of time to determine if periodicities existed over the time interval under consideration. Strong weekly, annual, and semiweekly cycles and weak monthly, semi...
The purpose of this study was to establish the minimum performance by teachers on the Qualitative Measures of Teaching Performance Scale required to influence students' achievement of volleyball skills. Beginning eighth-grade students and 14 teachers were examined over an instructional three-week volleyball unit. Teachers who scored 40 to 53 points...
The relationship between EPQ dimensions, proneness to depression and severity of depressive symptoms was examined in a sample of university students. The results suggest that Neuroticism is related to mood variation reflecting current depressive symptoms and depression vulnerability within nonclinical groups.
A nonclinical sample of 102 women students were given the BULIT-R to measure bulimic symptomatology and the Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire, a multidimensional measure of body-image parameters. Statistically significant relationships between Appearance Evaluation, Appearance Orientation, and Illness Orientation subscales of the t...
An examination of 222 students' learning of skill in volleyball was conducted in classes. Analysis indicated that over an eight-lesson unit performance for both serve and forearm pass improved. When classes were the unit of analysis five classes showed significant improvement on the serve and four on the pass. Present data provide a base for study...
A number of studies have suggested that educators overestimate the prevalence of learning disabilities in the schools. In this study, we found that 339 first- and second-year education students estimated the prevalence of learning disabilities to be four times higher than the upper limits of prevalence established by experts. Given that mislabellin...
Analysis of 102 undergraduate women's responses replicated the 1993 findings of Janzen, Saklofske, and Kelly considering the relationship between personality characteristics based on the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire--Revised and bulimic symptomatology as measured by the BULIT--R. Consistent with Janzen, et al., the strongest relationship with...
Martens, Kelly, and Saklofske in 1988 examined 21 studies considering the possible relationship between lunar periodicities and birthrate. They reported that the majority of studies uncovered no relationship and that the positive studies were inconsistent in their findings. The present update reports on six additional studies on birthrate and lunar...
This study investigated the relationship between common problems reported and gender for 139 middle-school children (Grades 7, 8, and 9) in Saskatchewan. Students were asked to describe in writing "a problem that has bothered you during the previous month." For boys, the order of reported problems in terms of frequency was parents, school, friends,...
This study examined the relationship between bulimic symptomatology as measured by scores on the BULIT-R and personality characteristics based on the EPQ-R in a nonclinical sample of 166 female college students. A relationship was obtained between Neuroticism, Addictiveness, and scores on the BULIT-R.
The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between teacher-related process variables as defined by the Qualitative Measures of Teacher Performance Scale and students' learning of three volleyball skills. Teachers of nine classes and 222 students were the subjects. Students were pretested and posttested on the forearm pass, underhand...
12 studies are reviewed that have examined the relationships among crisis calls to police stations, poison centers, and crisis intervention centers and the synodic lunar cycle. On the basis of the studies considered it is concluded that no good foundation exists for the belief that lunar phase is related to the frequency of crisis calls. In additio...
20 studies which have examined the relations between completed suicide or attempted suicide and suicide threats with the synodic lunar cycle are reviewed. Most studies indicated no relation between lunar phase and the measures of suicide. The positive findings conflicted, have not been replicated, or were confounded with variables such as season, w...
This study examined the relationship between bulimic symptomatology as measured by scores on the Bulimia Test--Revised and coping orientation as measured by Endler and Parker's Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations given to a nonclinical sample of 164 female college students. A relationship was obtained among emotionally oriented coping, task-o...
The daily total number of traffic accidents and traffic accident severity for the years 1984 to 1989 in Saskatchewan were analyzed to estimate relationships with day of the week, season of the year, and various lunar variables (lunar phase, distance of the moon from the earth, and moon-sun tidal index). A regression model with both a linear term an...
This study examined Thayer's model of tense and energetic arousal under conditions of relaxation and exercise. Results suggested that walking and relaxation produce differential effects on self-reported mood.
-An examination of the relationship between 9 teachers' technical knowledge of volleyball and 222 students' learning of a unit on volleyball uncovered no association. Suggestions for research are provided. Recent research in physical education is aimed at identifying relationships among various factors (teachers' characteristics, environmental situ...
This review examines 21 studies for which data relating to lunar periodicities and birth have been analyzed. There is insufficient evidence to support such a relationship. Most studies have reported negative results, and the positive studies contradict each other.
Summary.-In this paper the explanations put forward by lunar advocates to account for a "lunar effect" on human behavior are critically appraised. The hypotheses considered are ozone, moonlight, gravity, tidal force, geo- magnetism, electromagnetism, weather, ions, and ELF waves. It is concluded that none of these are sufficient to explain the alle...
This commentary repeats questions raised in prepublication reviews of “the lunar-lunacy relationship.”
The relationship between Eysenck's major personality factors and responses to the Revised UCLA Loneliness Scale were examined. E was related to loneliness for both males and females. Females also showed a moderately high correlation between N and loneliness. Regression analyses indicated a substantially stronger relationship between the Eysenck fac...
It was hypothesized that police officers and psychiatric professionals would endorse more items indicative of belief in lunar effects than members of the general public. This hypothesis was tested by having 36 psychiatric personnel, 33 police officers, and 60 pedestrians indicate agreement with each of the 9 items on the Belief in Lunar Effects (BI...
Two central concepts in probability theory are those of "independence" and of "mutually exclusive" events and their alternatives. In this article we provide for the instructor suggestions that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts.
This article addresses a common confusion among students---that of distinguishing the probability of an event occurring in the short term and its happening somewhere in the long run.
Few people would doubt that the main reason that mathematics is taught in the schools is because of its usefulness in everyday life. When one lists the mathematics with which an informed citizen comes in contact, basic skills in statistics are often included (Willoughby 1981). NCTM's (1980, 21) An Agenda for Action concludes that “emerging programs...
Reviews research on the Barnum effect (i.e., the tendency for people to accept vague, ambiguous, and general statements as descriptive of their unique personalities). The studies examined variables of the Barnum profiles in regard to generality and supposed relevance of the interpretation, favorability of interpretation, type of assessment procedur...
Normative, reliability, and validity data for a short (9-item) scale that assesses belief in lunar effects are presented. As hypothesized, scores on this scale were correlated with those on instruments measuring belief in paranormal phenomena. It is suggested that the construct validity of belief in paranormal phenomena can be improved by including...
Data from 37 published and unpublished studies were combined in a meta-analysis that examined relations between phase of the moon, type of lunar cycle, sex, publication practices, geographical features (latitude, population density), and several types of lunacy, including mental hospital admissions, psychiatric disturbances, crisis calls, homicides...
A response to Piagetian philosophical scholar on Jean Piaget's Genetic Epistemology and its relationship with Philosophical Epistemology. We contend there is no clear interdependence between the two. A central disagreement is over whether (as Piaget contends) young children freely contradict themselves. We contend Piaget's own exchanges with young...
Templer, Veleber, and Brooner in 1982 claimed that an excess number of injuries occur on nights with a full or new moon. In this note, we show that their claim is based upon trivial differences, on overlapping observations, possible violations of statistical assumptions, a failure to consider confounding between phases of the moon and days of the w...
Explains the use of contingency tables as a tool in assessing variables to determine whether a relationship exists. Develops an example hypothesis step-by-step, noting the scientific processes and attitudes being addressed. Cautions that a large difference, which suggests a relationship, is not explanation since correlation does not guarantee causa...
In this article we contend that much of the fallacious thinking by students regarding probability have psychological origins. A number of common erros in probalistic reasoning are identified and discussed.
A critical conceptual examination of Humanistic Astrology. Humanistic astrology is concerned exclusively with helping people understand themselves and their potentials and is generally more spiritual than traditional astrology. While the aims of Humanistic astrology as practised by Dane Rudhyar arelaudable, its tenets are deeply problematic.
Templer, Veleber, and Brooner in 1982 claimed that an excess number of injuries occur on nights with a full or new moon. In this note, we show that their claim is based upon trivial differences, on overlapping observations, possible violation of statistical assumptions, a failure to consider confounding between phases of the moon and days of the we...
This methodological note corrects errors in classic and recent studies on phases of the moon and abnormal behavior. It also describes more appropriate (time series analyses) procedures for detecting lunar periodicities in behavior.
This study examined the hypothesized relationships between zodiac signs and extraversion-introversion and neuroticism. New Zealand University students (N = 241) who were born under odd versus even and water versus nonwater signs completed the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. There were no significant differences between subjects classified accord...
Questions
Questions (4)
I've been reading Mid-life: a philosophical guide (2017) by Kieran Setiya on the feelings of emptiness and regret experienced by many Westerners in middle age. Is this largely a Western phenomena? I would be VERY interested in hearing from colleagues in Asia, Africa and the Middle East on this. I'm wondering if this is somewhat a manifestation of Western individuality, capitalism and the influence of Christainity. Or is it part of the general human condition? What do you think?
