Isabelle Chuine

French National Centre for Scientific Research | CNRS · Institut écologie et environnement (INEE)

The key stones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit developmen...

What links exist between climate and the annual cycle of plants? What mechanisms control the opening of buds? What are the projections in a context of climate change? These are all questions that phenology specialists answer in this book, showing how plants mark the rhythm of the changing seasons. This guide will also give you all the information...

Changes in winter and spring temperatures have been widely used to explain the diverse responses of spring phenology to climate change. However, few studies have quantified their respective effects. Using 386,320 in situ observations of leaf unfolding date (LUD) of six tree species in Europe, we show that accelerated spring thermal accumulation and...

Changes in winter and spring temperatures have been widely used to explain the diverse responses of spring phenology to climate change. However, our understanding of their respective roles remain incomplete. Using >300,000 in situ observations of leaf unfolding date (LUD) in Europe, we show that the advancement of LUD since 1950 is due both to acce...

Climate change might impact tree fecundity by altering the relative influences of meteorological and physiological drivers, and by modifying resource investment in reproduction. Using a 13‐yr monitoring of Quercus ilex reproduction in a rainfall exclusion experiment, we analysed the interactive effects of long‐term increased aridity and other envir...

Reliable phenological observations are needed to quantify the impact of climate change on tree phenology. Ground observations remain a prime source of phenological data, but their accuracy and precision have not been systematically quantified. The high subjectivity of ground phenological observations affects their accuracy, and the high within‐popu...

In seasonally cold climates, many woody plants tolerate chilling and freezing temperatures by ceasing growth, shedding leaves and entering dormancy. At the same time, transport within these plants often decreases as the vascular system exhibits reduced functionality. Since spring growth requires water and nutrients, we ask the question: How much do...

Climate change has become the third cause of biodiversity loss behind the exploitation of natural environments by humans and direct exploitation (food, health, raw materials). It could become the primary cause of biodiversity loss by the next century. Climate change has modified the biological rhythms and distributions of species, the functioning o...

Background and aims: In plants, high costs of reproduction during some years can induce trade-offs in resource allocation with other functions such as growth, survival and resistance against herbivores or extreme abiotic conditions, but also with subsequent reproduction. Such trade-offs might also occur following resource shortage at particular mo...

Many phenology models have been developed to explain historical trends in plant phenology and to forecast future ones. Two main types of model can be distinguished: correlative models, that statistically relate descriptors of climate to the date of occurrence of a phenological event, and process-based models that build upon explicit causal relation...

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of...

La rapidité du changement climatique (CC) en cours, l’incertitude des modèles climatiques et la diversité des réponses des espèces au CC motivent la communauté scientifique à accroître le volume des observations et à acquérir des données de qualité. Parmi celles-ci, la phénologie du débourrement chez les espèces ligneuses requiert une attention par...

Wie reagiert die Natur auf den Klimawandel? Pflanzen im Rhythmus der Jahreszeiten beobachten. Mit 60 ausgewählten Pflanzen, deren Beobachtung phänologisch besonders interessant ist. Mit detaillierten Fotografien und Zeichnungen. Wann blüht das Busch-Windröschen, wann färben sich die Blätter des Feld-Ahorns? Dieser Beobachtungsführer bietet sämtlic...

The phenology of plants is a major driver of agro-ecosystem processes and biosphere feedbacks to the climate system. Phenology models are classically used in ecology and agronomy to project future phenological changes. With our increasing understanding of the environmental cues affecting bud development, phenology models also increase in complexity...

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive s...

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data fro...

Drought sensitivity is known to affect plant species distribution. However, since every stage of plant life cycle has its own water requirements, plant performance and productivity is largely influenced by the timing of water stress. Variation in drought sensitivity between stages might explain recently observed changes in tree age structure along...

Mountain regions are particularly susceptible and influenced by the effects of climate change. In the Alps, temperature increased two times faster than in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century. As an immediate response in certain tree species, spring phenological phases, such as budburst and flowering, have tended to occur earlier. Howeve...

As climate change leads to global warming and modified precipitation patterns, the distribution of forest biomes and tree species is expected to shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes. Such shifts are currently projected by species distribution models fitted to different climate change scenarios. Field validation of these models for several l...

Tree species distribution, and hence forest biodiversity, relies on the reproductive capacity of trees, which is currently affected by climate change. Drought‐induced pollen sterility could increase as a consequence of more intense and more frequent droughts projected for temperate and Mediterranean regions, and threaten the sexual regeneration of...

Phenology is a key aspect of plant and animal life strategies that determines the ability to capture seasonally variable resources. It defines the season and duration of growth and reproduction and paces ecological interactions and ecosystem functions. Phenology models have become a key component of models in agronomy, forestry, ecology, and biogeo...

The degree to which climate warming and increasing drought will alter isoprenoid emissions of Mediterranean forests remains unclear, because most studies were carried out on single factors with isolated plants thus neglecting possible factor interactions and indirect effects at plant and community level. We studied foliar isoprenoid emissions, phen...

Modeling studies predict that global warming might severely affect bud dormancy release. However, growing empirical evidences suggest that long photoperiod might compensate for a lack of chilling temperature in photosensitive species. For now, attempts to integrate this effect into models remain limited. Here, we used French budburst phenological r...

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, since temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle - above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period - in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding - and the shift to earlier dates i...

Quels Liens existent entre le climat et le cycle annuel des plantes? Quels mécanismes commandent l'ouverture des bourgeons? Quelles sont les projections dans un contexte de changement climatique? Autant de questions auxquelles les spécialistes de la phénologie apportent des réponses dans cet ouvrage, en montrant comment les plantes marquent le ryth...

Fires are complex processes having important impacts on ecosystem functioning with societal consequences, especially in Brazilian biomes. The fire activity is determined by complex feedbacks between climate and vegetation types, which respond differently to water deficit. Fire danger indices (FDI) based on daily meteorological information are used...

Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), i...

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and o...

Les changements climatiques impactent fortement les processus phénologiques (débourrement et sénescence). Concernant certaines espèces comme le Hêtre, il existe de nombreuses incertitudes quant aux mécanismes impliqués dans le débourrement et à la façon dont on peut les modéliser. Or si les différents modèles donnent des résultats similaires concer...

Founded by Isablelle Chuine (CEFE-CNRS) and the NGO Tela Botanica, « Seasons Observatory » (Observatoire Des Saisons) it’s a french citizen-science program that aims to make aware, citizens of all ages, about climate change and its impact on biodiversity. The experience has shown that, more than just participate, the ODS citizen-scientist become an...

Key message. We demonstrate that, beyond leaf phenology, the phenological cycles of wood and fine roots present clear responses to environmental drivers in temperate and boreal trees. These drivers should be included in terrestrial ecosystem models. Context. In temperate and boreal trees, a dormancy period prevents organ development during adverse...

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in t...

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21(st) century using a process-based SDM coupled t...

In temperate zones, trees tend to unfold their leaves earlier due to climate warming. However, changes in the timing of the bud development also affect the dynamics of the cold-hardening process, which may increase frost injuries endured by trees because new leaves unfold at a period when frost events can still occur. This possible increase in fros...

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the p...

The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 yearsbecause of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect oftemperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development.On one hand, low tem...

The present study was an initial attempt to calibrate a phenological process-based model of dormancy release with experimental data for apricot flower buds. A large experimental database (88 data points) on dormancy release, concerning several cultivars grown at different geographical sites, was used for the model parameterization. We compared five...

Aim The effects of ongoing global change are causing increasing concern about the ability of species or biomes to shift or adapt. Tremendous efforts have been made to develop ever more sophisticated species distribution models to provide forecasts for the future of biodiversity. All these models rely on species occurrence data, either for calibrati...

Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review...

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of...

Model parameter values. (DOC)

Spatial distribution of the three monoscales kappa values of the current projection of Pinussylvestris distribution by the model PHENOFIT. (DOC)

Model description & parameterization. (DOC)

Current observed distribution of the tree species. (DOC)

Spatial distribution of the five bioclimatic variables computed by STASH for the current period (1981-2000). (DOC)

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Forecasting shifts in biome and species distribution is crucially needed in the current context of global change. So far, most projections of vegetation distribution rely on correlative species distribution models ( SDM s). Yet, process‐based or hybrid models based on explicit physiological description may be more robust to extrapolation under futu...

AimDespite the recent improvements made in species distribution models (SDMs), assessing species' ability to migrate fast enough to track their climate optimum remains a challenge. This study achieves this goal and demonstrates the reliability of a process-based SDM to provide accurate projections by simulating the post-glacial colonization of Euro...

Many regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural pests but suffer from a lack of data that hampers the development of adequate population dynamics models that could contribute to pest management strategies. Here, we present a new model relating pest survival to temperature and compare its performance with two published models. We were parti...

In a recent article (Dormann et al., 2012, Journal of Biogeography, 39, 2119—2131), we compared different approaches to species distribution modelling and depicted modelling approaches along an axis from purely 'correlative' to 'forward process-based' models. In their correspondence, Kriticos et al. (2013, Journal of Biogeography, doi:10.1111/j.136...

Aim To develop a physiologically based model of the plant niche for use in species distribution modelling. Location Europe. Methods We link the Thornley transport resistance (TTR) model with functions which describe how the TTR’s model parameters are influenced by abiotic environmental factors. The TTR model considers how carbon and nutrient uptake...

The distribution and abundance of plant species are intimately related to their reproductive success, which in turn is affected by a large number of environmental variables. Yet, reproductive success is rarely taken into account in species distribution models (SDMs). In this paper we examine the extent to which consideration of the reproduction nic...

Aim Current climate change is supposed to be beneficial to many biological invaders, especially to C4 alien plants. While several experiments have been dedicated to measuring alien plants’ response to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, very few studies have been undertaken to measure the response of alien plants to warming. This study was ai...

Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract Model‐based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision‐making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from diffe...

Ecology Letters (2012) Species may be able to respond to changing environments by a combination of adaptation and migration. We study how adaptation affects range shifts when it involves multiple quantitative traits evolving in response to local selection pressures and gene flow. All traits develop clines shifting in space, some of which may be in...

Estimates of climate conditions before the 19th century are based on proxy data reconstructions or sparse meteorological measurements. The reconstruction of the atmospheric circulation that prevailed during the European Little Ice Age (∼1500–1850) has fostered many efforts. This study illustrates a methodology, combining historical proxies and mode...