Inger-Lise Frogner

• Dr
• Norwegian Meteorological Institute

For a number of years research has been carried out in several centres which has demonstrated the potential benefits of 100‐m scale models for a range of meteorological phenomena. More recently, some meteorological services have started to consider seriously the operational implementation of practical hectometric models. Many, but by no means all,...

High-resolution, limited-area forecasting is strongly affected by errors in the initial atmospheric state, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), and physical parameterizations used by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These errors need to be accounted for through the introduction of uncertainty in an ensemble prediction system (EPS). One app...

A continuous EDA based ensemble in MetCoOp

HarmonEPS is the limited-area, short-range, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system developed and maintained by the HIRLAM consortium as part of the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system. HarmonEPS is the ensemble realization of HARMONIE–AROME, used for operational short-range forecasting in HIRLAM countries. HarmonEPS contains a range of perturbati...

Grand Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) is prepared for pan-European, short-range probabilistic numerical weather prediction of fine synoptic-scale, quasi-hydrostatic atmospheric flows. Four equally sized ensembles are combined: EuroTEPS, a version of the global ECMWF EPS with European target; AladEPS, a downscaling of EuroTEP...

ABSTRACTA global ensemble prediction system (EPS) needs initial perturbations to account for the uncertainties in the analysis. In this study singular vectors (SVs) are used to create these perturbations. In the operational EPS at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) the SVs are computed over the whole globe. The aim of th...

ABSTRACTNORLAMEPS is a 42 member short-range EPS run operationally at met.no since February 2005. It combines TEPS, a 21 member version of ECMWF's EPS with perturbations targeted to Northern Europe, and a HIRLAM-based 21 member LAMEPS, and includes two control forecasts. NORLAMEPS has been upgraded extensively since 2005, including extensions for t...

This study aims at improving 0–3 day probabilistic forecasts of precipitation events in Norway. For this purpose a limited-area ensemble prediction system (LAMEPS) is tested. The horizontal resolution of LAMEPS is 28 km, and there are 31 levels in the vertical. The state variables provided as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the limited-...

The operational limited-area model, HIRLAM, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is used at 0.25 ± latitude/longitude resolution for ensemble weather prediction over Northern Europe and adjacent parts of the North Atlantic Ocean; this system is called LAMEPS. Initial and lateral boundary perturbations are taken from coarse-resolution European...

The targeting procedure developed at ECMWF is used to make ensembles specially designed for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean. A total of 35 ensembles are integrated, consisting of 20 winter cases and 15 summer cases in 1997, each consisting of 20 members plus one control forecast. The ensembles are run up to day 10, and the ens...

The aim of this study has been to run extended tests with LAMEPS using ECMWF EPS to perturb the initial conditions and the lateral boundary conditions in the HIRLAM model. First the ECMWF EPS has been running with Northern Europe and adjacent sea areas as target area to make 20 ensemble perturbations for each case. Tests using 1) regular singular v...