Ilona Bärlund

• Dr.-Ing.
• Science Manager at Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research

Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today’s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water...

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) constitute an ambitious comprehensive global framework including monitoring mechanisms and indicators to evaluate progress towards precise targets of sustainable development. Most European countries have adapted their national sustainability indicator systems to conform to the UN Agenda 2030 for sustainable...

Meeting ecological and water quality standards in lotic ecosystems is often failed due to multiple stressors. However, disentangling stressor effects and identifying relevant stressor-effect-relationships in complex environmental settings remain major challenges. By combining state-of-the-art methods from ecotoxicology and aquatic ecosystem analysi...

Monitoring the qualitative status of freshwaters is an important goal of the international community, as stated in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDGs) indicator 6.3.2 on good ambient water quality. Monitoring data are, however, lacking in many countries, allegedly because of capacity challenges of less-developed countries. So far, however, the...

Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi‐faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has rece...

Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is an ambiguous concept and difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resi...

Salinisation can have different adverse impacts on water resources that are used for drinking, irrigation, or industrial purposes. In addition, salinisation in its turn is also strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities such as irrigation. This paper maps trade-offs between water quality (SDG 6.3) and other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)...

Stakeholder involvement in modeling studies is increasing. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are emerging as a promising tool to provide a common base for stakeholders and modelers. FCMs developed by stakeholders from three local Mediterranean case studies are used to construct a stakeholder based FCM. This is done via a workshop in which the locally dev...

The quality of surface water has noticeably improved in recent decades in many parts of the developed world, but is being challenged as economic growth, intensification of land use often combined with demographic or climate change lead to widespread and severe degradation. The need to reverse this development is reflected in the 2030 Agenda for Sus...

Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualita...

African water quality is for large parts of the continent unknown, as very little measured data exists. To gain insight into African water quality, which affects humans and ecosystems, a simulation approach with the large-scale model WorldQual was applied. Simulations were carried out for the year 2010 for faecal coliform (FC) bacteria and for the...

Carter, Timothy R., Bärlund, Ilona, Fronzek, Stefan, Kankaanpää, Susanna, Kaivo-oja, Jari, Luukkanen, Jyrki, Wilenius, Markku, Tuomenvirta, Heikki, Jylhä, Kirsti, Kahma, Kimmo, Johansson, Milla, Boman, Hanna, Launiainen, Jouko, Laurila, Tuomas, Lindfors, Virpi, Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka, Aurela, Mika, Syri, Sanna, Forsius, Martin & Karvosenoja, Niko (20...

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT)....

Our objective was to incorporate the effects of gypsum on phosphorus (P) losses into the field-scale ICECREAM model and to simulate the treatment of 93 ha of clayey soil with gypsum in a catchment located in southern Finland. In addition to the gypsum effects, a macropore flow description was added to ICECREAM. First, a sensitivity analysis was per...

Climate change and socio-economic driving forces will affect Europe's future freshwater resources. A large-scale water model is used to analyse these effects and to identify 'hot spots' of water stress in the Black Sea region, as an example of an area where future water demand is expected to exceed the available water resources. Two scenarios are a...

An export coefficient model of diffuse pollution at large scales has been developed as part of a larger study investigating and mapping the present and future patterns of the quantity and quality of European water resources. The model was developed to provide reasonable estimates across the whole of Europe based on readily accessible datasets, and...

To address the continental and large‐scale aspects of water quality assessments, new modelling approaches are required. This paper describes the development of a continental‐scale model of river water quality – WorldQual. Simple equations, consistent with the availability of data on the continental‐scale, are used to simulate the response of bioche...

A methodology for estimating the loading of pollutants to water courses across all of pan‐Europe, an area reaching to the River Don in the east and including some Mediterranean rim countries in the near east and North Africa is presented. Loadings come from point (domestic effluent, manufacturing discharge and urban runoff) and diffuse (scattered s...

Stream water temperature is an important factor used in water quality modeling. To estimate monthly stream temperature on a global scale, a simple nonlinear regression model was developed. It was applied to stream temperatures recorded over a 36-yr period (1965-2001) at 1659 globally distributed gauging stations. Representative monthly air temperat...

This paper introduces an approach to route discharge with a variable river flow velocity based on the Manning-Strickler formula within large scale hydrological models. The approach has been developed for the global scale hydrological model WaterGAP and model results have been analyzed focusing on Europe. The goal was to find a method that is simple...

Large scale water quality issues have recently become the focus of policy and research. To give insight into large scale water quality issues a scenario analysis was carried out for Europe using the continental water quality model WorldQual with total nitrogen and phosphorus as example substances. Future nitrogen and phosphorus loadings and in-stre...

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this...

The future of Europe's waters will be influenced by a combi-nation of many environmental, social, political, and policy drivers, such as climate change, population changes, land use change, as well as economical and technological develop-ments. Political developments, such as the enlargement of the European Union and relationships between EU member...

Climate change and increasing electricity production affect future freshwater requirements for thermoelectric power plants in Europe. This paper explores the reasons and shows 'hot spots' for further analysis. A scenario and simulation approach was selected to estimate water availability and water uses in Europe up to 2050. Depending on the scenari...

Purpose The aim of this study is to analyze future changes of freshwater needs in the electricity production sector and to identify hotspots where future cooling water needs may not be fulfilled. Design/methodology/approach To address the goals of this study, a scenario and simulation approach was selected to estimate water availability and water...

This deliverable reports on the results of the third and final pan-European stakeholder meeting and secondly, on the enrichment with a Pilot Area and regional perspective. The main emphasis is on backcasting as a means to arrive at long-term strategies and short-term (policy) actions.

Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide a description of the new continental-scale model of water...

Inorganic nitrogen loading was simulated using two dynamic catchment scale models, Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen (INCA-N) and the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF). The simulated N loading was compared to a standard method to calculate annual loading using measured discharge and discharge-weighted concentrations. The main...

Inorganic nitrogen (N) loading was simulated by the catchment scale INCA-N model from two large river basins with contrasting land use. The main aim was to analyze the timing and origin of inorganic N loading and the effectiveness of different water protection methods. Predicted changes in precipitation and temperature increases the nutrient load f...

Modeling tools are needed to assess (i) the amounts of loading from agricultural sources to water bodies as well as (ii) the alternative management options in varying climatic conditions. These days, the imple-mentation of Water Framework Directive (WFD) has put totally new requirements also for modeling ap-proaches. The physically based models are...

Field-scale modelling is widely used as a means to look into interdependencies of processes and to assess potential effects of agricultural management practices as well as of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Generalisation from field-scale results to cover all agricultural land in a catchment by using typical soil-crop-slope combinations has b...

The loss of soil material and nutrients from agricultural land to waters pose on the one hand a problem to farmers in form of soil degradation and on the other hand to surface water quality by enhancing the eutrophication process. Efforts undertaken, both concerning conservation practices and policy measures, show for example for the U.S.

Bärlund, i. & Kirkkala, t. 2008: examining a model and assessing its performance in describing nutrient and sediment transport dynamics in a catchment in southwestern Finland. Boreal Env. Res. 13: 195–207. The Eurajoki basin, including Pyhäjärvi, was chosen as the Finnish test catchment in an EU project on benchmarking models for the Water Framewor...

The aim of this article is to describe the background and main elements of the SCENES project (Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States) together with the approach for selecting, constructing and evaluating water scenarios up to 2050. SCENES is a multi-faceted integrated project that aims to address the complex questions about the future...

In Finland, the use of agricultural nitrogen (N) fertilizers has decreased since the beginning of the 1990's but there is not yet any clear response in observed water quality in the monitored agricultural catchments and river basins. It is therefore important to analyse how the reduction in N fertilization affects N leaching at the root zone scale....

In this study the impacts of different agricultural policies on agricultural production and nutrient leaching from agricultural lands are evaluated usin g the economic DREMFIA agricultural sector model and a field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. DREMFIA includes an evolutionary scheme of technology diffusion which considers farm investment...

The ecological status of Lake Pyhäjärvi may be classified as moderate due to its elevated nutrient concentrations and algal biomass production. Therefore, the Eurajoki river basin, including Lake Pyhäjärvi, has been chosen as the Finnish test catchment in an EU project on benchmarking models for the Water Framework Directive. One aim of the project...

On the coastal plains of Finland there are approximately 3,000km2 of acid sulfate soils developed as a result of intensive agricultural drainage of waterlogged sulfide-bearing sediments. The runoff from these soils contains very high amounts of acidity and metals that have severely deteriorated the aquaculture in several downstream rivers and estua...

The hydrological submodel of ICECREAM, which is the Finnish version of CREAMS/ GLEAMS model, was calibrated and validated against surface runoff and snow water equivalent data from a sloping clayey field under small grain crop cultivation. The field data indicated pronounced short-term and seasonal variation of surface runoff and erosion. Soil loss...

To abate the environmental problems caused by the severe acidity and high metal concentrations in rivers draining acid sulphate (AS) soils of Western Finland, control drainage (CD) and lime filter drainage (LFD), and their combination, were investigated. The effectiveness of these best management practices (BMP's) on drainage water quality was stud...

To abate the environmental problems caused by the severe acidity and high metal concentrations in rivers draining acid sulphate (AS) soils of Western Finland, control drainage (CD) and lime filter drainage (LFD), and their combination, were investigated. The effectiveness of these best management practices (BMP’s) on drainage water quality was stud...

To help local regulators mitigate non-point source agricultural pollution and implement environment-friendly agricultural practices, a comparison between different existing or simulated best management practices (BMPs) has been carried out within a pluridisciplinary project called AgriBMPWater (FP5 founded). The project has been imagined and built...

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quali...

Se reporter à la rubrique « Le collectif auteur » en fi n d'article. Les contacts Pour atteindre les objectifs de protection de la ressource en eau et de restauration de la qualité des milieux aquatiques, l'agriculture doit adopter de bonnes pratiques effi caces sur le plan environnemental, viables sur le plan économique et réalistes quant à leur a...

Pour élaborer des programmes de restauration de la qualité de l`eau tels que prévus par la Directive cadre européenne sur l`eau, les décideurs locaux sont amenés à promouvoir des modifications de pratiques agricoles, souvent prédéfinies par des techniciens. La question qui se pose est de choisir les modifications les mieux adaptées aux problématiqu...

Concentrations of inorganic nitrogen (N) in non-polluted and undisturbed northern rivers are often lower during summer than during the dormant season. The great difference between summer and winter N concentrations probably reflects higher soil water N contents in the dormant season compared with the growing season, when inorganic N is usually reta...

This paper presents the rationale, methodology and results of the three-year FINSKEN project to develop global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Scenario consistency was pursued by relating all scenarios to the same global driving factors of environmental change specified by the IPCC. Scenarios were constructed of socio- economic de...

A mathematical simulation model (ICECREAM), describing the phosphorus cycle in the soil and its losses from soil to water, was developed and applied to clayey soils in Finland. The model is based on the CREAMS and GLEAMS model, with some modifications to adapt it to local (climatic) conditions. The original erosion submodel (USLE) highly overestima...

The INCA (Integrated Nitrogen CAtchment) model is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen model which simulates nitrogen fluxes in catchments. Sources of nitrogen can be atmospheric deposition, the terrestrial environment or direct discharges. The model can simulate nitrogen processes in six land use classes. There are three components included; the h...

A questionnaire was sent to almost 600 people representing different target groups in Finland, to investigate their interest in obtaining global change scenarios. There was a 30% response rate to the questionnaire, of which 93% indicated that they could or might make use of scenarios. Priorities for scenarios differed between researchers and non-re...

Although radioactive contamination of agricultural land mayrequire food production to cease, in many situations food contamination can be kept below the intervention limits throughapplication of countermeasures. However, the radiological benefits of these measures may be accompanied by negative impacts on the environment. The aim of this work was t...

AgriBMPWater is a european research project of the 5th RTD Framework program (key action : Sustainable Mnagement and Quality of Water). The third meeting of this project took place in Italy (Bari) for 3 days (January, 23st to 25th 2002) with all the involved partners.

AgriBMPWater is an European research project of the 5th RTD Framework program (key action : Sustainable Mnagement and Quality of Water). The fourth meeting of this project took place in Finland (Suitia) for 3 days (September, 11th to 13th 2002) with all the involved partners.

The sensitivity and uncertainty model UNCSAM was implemented to study the influence of model parameters on phosphorus losses (sediment bound P and soluble P in surface runoff and deep percolation as well as P taken up by the crop). The simulations were performed using ICECREAM, a management model for predicting field-scale losses of phosphorus. The...

Boreal Environment Research, vol 6, nr 2, p. 147-158, 1239-6095 The effects of nutrient load reductions on the biomass of N-fixing cyanobacteria were evaluated in the scale of the Gulf of Finland. The two analysed reduction scenarios were Finnish national agenda and the improvement of phosphorus removal in the present purification plants of St. Pet...

AgriBMPWater is an european research project of the 5th RTD Framework program (key action : Sustainable Mnagement and Quality of Water). The second meeting of this project took place at ENGREF (French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering) in Paris 14ème for 3 days (May, 30th 2001- June, 1st 2001) with all the involved p...

The leaching of the herbicide isoproturon and the water tracer bromide in the profile of a silty loam soil at the Weiherbach Catchment area in Germany was simulated by eight different persons using the models MACRO, SIMULAT, LEACHP, WAVE, GLEAMS and PELMO (only bromide). Experimental results from different laboratory studies and from a field study...

The GLEAMS model predicts runoff, percolation and soil and chemical losses at the edge of a field and from the root zone. The objective of this study was to test the performance of the GLEAMS model against three observed data sets from different parts of Europe. Three users tested the model independently, i.e. parametrized the model without discuss...

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is widely used in mathematical models for predicting sediment yield. USLE is based on regression equations for describing rill and interrill detachment and input parameters are applied to account for external forcing. Uncertainty in estimation of input parameters as well as regression factors give rise to unc...

AgriBMPWater is a european research project of the 5th RTD Framework program. The launching meeting of this project took place at the Cemagref of Rennes during 5 days (September 5-9, 2000) with all the involved partners This report presents the conclusions of the main discussed topics : the research watersheds, the working organisation for each wor...

This paper presents the changes in cultivation practices in Finnish agriculture resulting from the Agri-Environmental Support Scheme of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. Detailed data were collected by interviewing farmers in four different areas of the country. The potential impacts of changes in cultivation practices on phosph...

This paper presents the changes in cultivation practices in Finnish agriculture resulting from the Agri-Environmental Support Scheme of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. Detailed data were collected by interviewing farmers in four different areas of the country. The potential impacts of changes in cultivation practices on phosph...

The generation of electricity in thermoelectric power plants requires large quantities of water for cooling purposes. Future predictions of water shortages due to climate change are of major concern on the part of the power generating industry. In addition, climate change and an increasing population and economic wealth lead not only to a growing d...

To design the restoration plans requested by the European Water Framework Directive, local regulators need to implement technically designed modifications of farming practices. Their main interest relies on the determination of which modifications are the most appropriate to the local conditions. To help this decision process, a selection grid has...

In: Järvet, Arvo (ed.). XXIII Nordic Hydrological Conference. Tallinn, Estonia, 8-12 August. Selected articles. Volume I. Tallinn, Nordic Association for Hydrology. P. 189-197. NHP Report ; 48., 0900-0267 WHYCOS is a global monitoring programme, coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). WHYCOS is composed by regional components, e...