Ilhyock Shim

• PhD
• Head of Department at Bank for International Settlements

Macroprudential policy involves using mainly prudential but sometimes also monetary and fiscal tools to reduce systemic risk and achieve financial stability. It is motivated by externalities associated with the buildup of systemic risk over time due to strategic complementarities, fire sales and credit crunches related to a generalized sell-off of...

The financial channel of exchange rates operates through changes in risk-taking by investors and is reflected in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements. We show that stock returns also reflect the financial channel of exchange rates, with higher local currency stock returns associated with a weaker dollar. The broad dollar...

Household debt levels relative to GDP have risen rapidly in many countries over the past decade. We investigate the relationship between household debt and growth by employing a novel estimation technique proposed by (Chudik et al. in: Hill, Gonzalez-Rivera, Lee (eds) Advances in econometrics volume 36 essays in honour of Aman Ullah, Emerald Publis...

The growing heft of institutional investors and asset managers in several Asian economies has fuelled expansion in outward portfolio investment, mainly in US dollar-denominated assets. This investment is predominantly in long-term instruments but is hedged for currency risk mainly through short-term derivatives. The rollover risk in currency hedges...

We estimate variance risk premiums (VRPs) in stock markets of selected major advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) over 2007–2015, and decompose the VRP into variance-diffusive risk premium (DRP) and variance-jump risk premium (JRP). Daily VAR analysis reveals significant spillovers from US and developed Eurozone’s VRPs to t...

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers the value of their foreign currency debt. These firms can borrow more as a result and increase their leverage. When home currency deprec...

We investigate if financial stress in countries where international banks are headquartered is a major driver of the withdrawal of these banks’ credit to emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that when financial stress, measured by sovereign or bank CDS spreads or corporate bond spreads, increases, international banks decrease their lending to...

Existing models of market participation offer contrasting predictions on the impact of asset price volatility on market participation. Utilising granular trading data from the Thai foreign exchange (FX) market, we test the empirical relevance of these predictions. We find that the volatility of the US dollar–Thai baht exchange rate has a positive e...

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers the value of their foreign currency debt. These firms can borrow more as a result and increase their leverage. When home currency deprec...

In emerging market economies, currency appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral U.S. dollar exchange rate, not the trade...

Using variance risk premiums (VRPs) nonparametrically calculated from equity markets in selected major developed economies and emerging market economies (EMEs) over 2007–15, this chapter documents the correlation of VRPs across markets, examining whether equity fund flows work as a path through which VRPs spill over globally. It finds that VRPs ten...

Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such measures on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a...

Asset portfolios of open-end mutual funds reflect both the fund flows from ultimate investors as well as discretionary trading by the fund managers. We propose a method for decomposing the change in mutual fund asset holdings into the parts due to investor flows, fund manager discretionary sales, and valuation effects. We find that discretionary sa...

Open-end mutual funds face investor redemptions, but the sale of the underlying assets depends on asset managers’ portfolio decisions. If asset managers use cash holdings as a buffer to meet redemptions, they can mitigate fire sales of the assets. If they hoard cash in response to redemptions, they will amplify fire sales. We present a global game...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of nine non-interest rate policies on house prices and housing credit using data from 57 economies and periods of up to three decades. We find that introductions or reductions in the maximum debt-service-to-income ratio, and increases in housing-related taxes, have significant negative effects on housing cr...

Macroprudential Policy: Unfinished Business for Central Banks Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, both advanced and emerging market economies have made progress in setting up macroprudential policy frameworks and implementing macroprudential measures. This article provides a summary of these measures, and discusses a number of challenges...

This paper provides a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in 12 Asia-Pacific economies over 2004-2013, using databases of domestic macroprudential policies and capital flow management (CFM) policies. We find that banking sector CFM policies and bond market CFM policies are effective in slowing down banking inflow...

Using a novel database on capital flow management measures in Asia over 2004 − 2013, we investigate the impact of bond inflow management measures on the cross-market correlations of weekly bond fund flows and of daily bond returns in 12 Asia-Pacific economies, after controlling for global, regional and local factors. We find that a bond inflow mana...

During the 2007–2009 international financial crisis, many countries experienced dislocations in their foreign exchange (FX) swap markets and cross-currency swap markets (see Baba et al., 2012).1 When foreign banks’ lending to these countries contracted sharply around the fourth quarter of 2008, domestic banks faced difficulties in borrowing in the...

This paper is motivated by the observation that there are three types of CRE loans: loans on existing CRE properties; land and construction loans (also called land acquisition, development and construction loans (ADC loans)); and CRE loans in CMBS pools and insurance company portfolios. This paper especially focuses on changes in the business envir...

Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98, policymakers in Asia and the Pacific have put a high priority on bond market development. From 2005 to 2011, the corporate bond market in emerging Asia continued to grow rapidly, even during the 2007–09 crisis. However, during the peak of the crisis, almost all major economies in Asia and the Pacific exp...

Foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets in the Korean won are comparatively thin and vulnerable to impaired functioning. During the crisis, Korea faced dislocations in its FX swap and cross-currency swap markets, so severe that covered interest parity (CIP) between the Korean won and the US dollar was seriously violated. Using a variation of the...

This volume is a collection of the speeches, presentations and papers from a conference on "The International Financial Crisis and Policy Challenges in Asia and the Pacific". The event was co-hosted by the People's Bank of China (PBC) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to mark the formal completion of the BIS Asian Research Programme....

This paper investigates the impact of CDS trading on the development of the bond market in Asia. In general, CDS trading has lowered the cost of issuing bonds and enhanced the liquidity in the bond market. The positive impact is stronger for smaller firms, non-financial firms and those firms with higher liquidity in the CDS market. These empirical...

During the financial crisis, Korea responded to dislocations in the FX swap market by both drawing on its swap line with the Federal Reserve and using its own international reserves to provide dollars to domestic banks. We show that the Bank of Korea's use of the Fed swap line was very effective in alleviating dislocations in the won/dollar FX swap...

Nascent markets for credit derivatives and structured credit in Asia and the Pacific were poised for rapid growth when the global financial turmoil hit. While there has been no significant deterioration in the quality of the underlying names, credit markets in the region have been swept up in the global widening of spreads and aversion to structure...

The paper shows that an IMF-like coinsurance arrangement among countries can play a useful role in the global financial system. The operation of the coinsurance arrangement is examined under different loan contracts. It shows that, if the IMF?s objective is to safeguard its resources and be concerned about the welfare of the borrower, an ex ante lo...

In the economic environment that has been emerging over the last couple of decades, it is more likely that the occasional build-up of financial imbalances, typically in the form of unsustainable credit and asset price booms, will occur against the background of low and stable inflation, posing a potential threat to financial and macroeconomic stabi...

This paper examines the process of distress selling and asset market feedback. It splits this process into several stages, in order to analyse what triggers distress selling, why asset prices fall, and how falling prices generate additional rounds of selling. This framework enables us to understand and compare models relevant to distress selling fr...

In many Asian countries, government institutions have played an important role in guaranteeing SME loans. Nevertheless, they have also exhibited lacklustre operating profits in recent years. Two episodes of failures involving companies offering credit guarantees highlight the importance of sufficient capitalisation and prudent risk management, as w...

Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) prescribes prompt and deterministic termination of banks with insufficient levels of book-value capital. This paper investigates whether reliance on book-value capital is a good policy choice and if PCA is an optimal regulatory approach. I use a variant of DeMarzo and Fishman's (2004) dynamic model of entrepreneurial...

Forecasts are an inherent part of economic science and the quest for perfect foresight occupies economists and researchers in multiple fields. The release of economic forecasts (and its revisions) is a popular and often publicized event, with a multitude of institutions and think-tanks devoted almost exclusively to that task. The European Central B...

This paper investigates whether a bank regulator should terminate problem banks promptly or exercise forbearance. We construct a dynamic model economy in which entrepreneurs pledge collateral, borrow from banks, and invest in long-term projects. We assume that collateral value has aggregate risk over time, that in any period entrepreneurs can absco...