Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano

• Ph.D.
• Researcher at Argonne National Laboratory

Public health experts studying infectious disease spread often seek granular insights into population health outcomes. Metapopulation models offer an effective framework for analyzing disease transmission through subpopulation mixing. These models strike a balance between traditional, homogeneous mixing compartmental models and granular but computa...

This article describes the history of the Beer Game. By triangulating information from literature, archival analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, the main changes in the game over its almost 70‐year history are identified. The article discusses three aspects of the game: 1) its structure (phases of its history, stocks and flows, param...

Decisions are made, actions are taken, and the world is changing constantly as a result. The consequences of past decisions create the information that affects future decisions in an iterative, continuous set of feedback processes. To better comprehend real-world systems, change, and complex interactions, identifying and understanding feedback is p...

Purpose: Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection. Methods: We created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conduc...

Objectives Globally, the burden of disease caused by alcohol use has been steadily increasing, including in Thailand. In this study, we aim to test the effectiveness of Anderson et al.’s suggested three approaches to change the collective social norms, which comprise of: (1) providing information and an understanding about alcohol use behaviour, it...

Background Over the past 3 decades of tobacco control, Thailand has gained international recognition as a middle‐income country with sustained achievement of declining smoking prevalence. However, the number of key Framework Convention on Tobacco Control measures implementation is still far away from the highest‐level implementation. As a result, w...

This document describes the current state of the Adversary Dynamics Modeling (ADM) project currently under development. Given the dynamic nature of the terrorist threat, the purpose of this modeling effort is to increase current understanding of adversarial decision-making processes and possible behavior in order to help guide countermeasure techno...

The significant relationship between the rule of law and resiliency in the United Nations Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) demonstrates the crucial need to incorporate the rule of law in community resiliency analyses. The rule of law is a fundamental aspect of effective governance and a critical contributor to societal resiliency. It provides a pla...

This article integrates research on rule development, compliance, and organizational change to model rule development and compliance in organizations, using causal-loop modeling from system dynamics to articulate explicitly a few key underlying processes. We focus on financial markets as a case area, suggesting that recurring regulatory problems in...

Agent-based modeling is an approach used to describe systems composed of autonomous, independent, interactive, and potentially adaptive agents. Although agent-based models (ABMs) often include endogenous relationships that exist in agent-level interactions, such relationships are seldom salient when the structural elements of the models are analyze...

This research explores opinions about best practices in system dynamics modeling elicited from a distinguished group of experts in the field. We address three questions: What do practitioners believe is the best way to undertake system dynamics modeling? What specific core activities are essential for exemplary action during the different stages of...

The growing reliance on technological infrastructures has made organizations increasingly vulnerable to threats from trusted employees, former employees, current or former contractors, and clients. Recent research indicates that successful defense from these threats depends on both technical and behavioral controls. In this paper, we report on our...

In the spirit of closing the “research-practice gap,” the authors extend evidencebased principles to statistics instruction in social science graduate education.¹ The authors employ a Delphi method to survey experienced statistics instructors to identify teaching techniques to overcome the challenges inherent in teaching statistics to students enro...

In the spirit of closing the 'research-practice gap,' the authors extend evidence-based principles to statistics instruction in social science graduate education. The authors employ a Delphi method to survey experienced statistics instructors to identify teaching techniques to overcome the challenges inherent in teaching statistics to students enro...

The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model for the identification of threats to security systems. This model integrates judgment, decision-making, and learning theories to provide a unified framework for the behavioral study of upcoming threats.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11), focused a great deal of interest and concern on how individual and social perceptions of risk change behavior and subsequently affect commercial sector venues. Argonne conducted a review of the literature to identify studies that quantify the direct and indirect economic consequences of avoidance...

While awareness is acknowledged as a key factor in crisis management, much is vague as to the meaning of the awareness concept, its measurement, how awareness impacts the lifecycle of a crisis and how awareness can be promoted. This vagueness, we hypothesize, potentially reflects the immaturity of crisis management theory. This in turn obscures the...

Achieving energy efficiency targets over time for commercial buildings strongly depends on the dynamics among the diversity of building owners and how they are affected by different physical and institutional constraints. To study this dynamic process and analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies, we propose tackling this issue by using an a...

Achieving commercial building energy-efficiency targets strongly depends on the dynamics among the various market participants and how those dynamics are impacted by different physical and institutional constraints. We develop a Commercial Buildings Sector Agent-based Model (CoBAM) prototype that considers different types of decision makers and bui...

The authors describe a behavioral theory of the dynamics of insider-threat risks. Drawing on data related to information technology security violations and on a case study created to explain the dynamics observed in that data, the authors constructed a system dynamics model of a theory of the development of insider-threat risks and conducted numeri...

This paper presents a generic model for information security implementation in organizations. The model presented here is part of an ongoing research stream related to critical infrastructure protection and insider threat and attack analysis. This paper discusses the information security implementation case.

Electronic government has been defined as the use of information and communication technologies in government settings. However, it is neither a homogeneous nor a static phenomenon. Recent empirical studies have identified two important dynamics in e-government evolution. First, e-government in general has evolved from its initial presence on the I...

Public and private organizations deal closely with each other on regulatory issues. Newer forms of regulation rely on shared enforcement and supervisory responsibilities, regulatory negotiation, and other methods that try to get beyond remote public commands while maintaining effective public involvement. This article examines how regulators and fi...

The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model as it applies to the identification of emerging threats. This model integrates judgment, decision making, and learning theories to provide an integrated framework for the behavioral study of emerging threats

In this paper, we present insights generated by modeling the emergence of insider threat vulnerabilities in organizations. In our model, we integrate concepts from social judgment theory, signal detection theory, and the cognitive psychology of memory and belief formation. With this model, we investigate the emergence of vulnerabilities (especially...

The system dynamics group at the Rockefeller College of the University at Albany has been developing techniques to create system dynamic models with groups of managers during the last 25 years. Building upon their tradition in decision conferencing, the group has developed a particular style that involves a facilitation team in which people play di...

In detection processes, decision making includes comparing indicators with thresholds that determine the preferred course of action. The prototypical detection problem deals with identification of elements that belong to a class when mixed with elements that do not belong to it. In our model, we integrate elements from social judgment theory SJT (B...

This theory-building effort is designed to attract people with an interest in digital government evolution by using formal modeling in the social sciences. By using the system dynamics approach in a group setting, the main drivers of digital government organizational and technological sophistication are explored and formally articulated in a causal...

The authors present a preliminary theory of outcome-based learning under uncertainty. We created this theory by integrating social judgment theory and signal detection theory using the system dynamics approach. This integration offers a unique framework to explore the fundamental mechanisms associated with learning dynamics using outcome feedback b...

This paper uses a system dynamics model to analyze rule compliance in organizations. The analysis takes securities regulation as an illustrative case but applies to other private, nonprofit, and public activities complying with rules overseen by external bodies in the course of producing goods and services. We consider how three levels of behavior—...

Includes bibliographical references. Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Albany, State University of New York, 2005. Photocopy. s

Recently national, state, and local governments from many countries have been attempting to reform their administrative structure, processes, and regulatory frameworks. E-government can be seen as a powerful approach for government administrative reform. The dynamics and evolution of e-government is a complex process resulting from strategic behavi...

Using a system dynamics perspective, this paper explores the links between two models in mainstream Public Choice Theory, the Median Voter Model and the Tiebout Hypothesis. By grounding this model of public choice dynamics in economic theory, we present the dynamic implications of both models as they interact and form one integrated model. Addition...

We intended this research both to discover a set of core practices in the system-dynamics modeling process and to identify the best of them according to the knowledgeable opinion of a recognized group of experts in the field. The paper addresses two questions: (1) What aspects of the system dynamics modeling process are common to all model building...

In general terms, e-government can be defined as the use of information and communication technologies in government settings. However, it is neither a homogeneous nor a static phenomenon. In recent years, empirical studies have identified two interesting dynamics in e-government evolution. First, e-government has evolved from its initial presence...

A model of how systems of rules in organizations are used and, over time, changed by learning processes and rule-following preferences of their actors is presented. The paper uses the case of the performance measurement system of the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) to articulate an endogenous theory to explore the impact that changes in perform...

This paper explores the history of the Beer Game, its rules, and lessons. By triangulating information from the literature, archival analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, we have identified the main changes in the game over its almost 50-year history. Additionally, an exploration of possible changes to the game and new games in the fi...

We created a model of how systems of rules in organizations are used and, over time, changed by learning processes and rule -following preferences of their actors. The paper uses the case of performance measurement systems of the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) using a system dynamics model to create simulated experiments to study information a...

Modeling for enhanced understanding of complex systems with policy-oriented implications sometimes requires that several different levels of aggregation be considered and formally included. In the system dynamics tradition, different levels of aggregation are not normally combined, which leaves certain classes of problems outside of the traditional...