Ignacio Pérez Domínguez

Ignacio Pérez Domínguez
European Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)

PhD

About

103
Publications
24,492
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2,278
Citations
Introduction
Agricultural markets, optimization models, climate change analysis

Publications

Publications (103)
Article
Full-text available
Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions...
Article
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Agriculture is a major source of air pollution in Europe, with adverse impacts on human health. Having recognized the serious health outcomes, and in direct response to public demand for a cleaner environment, European public policies are aiming to reduce air pollution. This study proposes a shift to more plant-based human diets to help achieve bol...
Article
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The risk of food-supply instability is expected to increase along with the frequency and intensity of extreme agro-climatic events in many regions. Assessing the sensitivity of the global agricultural system to evolving extremes requires the probability of occurrence of such events to be estimated and their links with potential food supply and dema...
Article
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Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show th...
Article
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en Insect-based food and feed have received a lot of attention recently. The EU Farm-to-Fork Strategy, for example, mentions insects as an alternative feed material that could reduce the environmental and climate impact of livestock production. Insects are an interesting source of feed because of their ability to convert many types of organic mater...
Article
en Agricultural stakeholders have concerns regarding the potential impact of the Farm-to-Fork and Biodiversity strategies on the agricultural sector. Several studies have been published recently trying to understand how these strategies would affect the sector, including a JRC report on modelling environmental and climate ambition in the agricultur...
Article
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The EU has a historical deficit of plant protein and is heavily reliant on imports to sustain domestic livestock production. Using an economic model of global agricultural markets, this article investigates three policy drivers that could have an influence on the increased production of protein-rich crops in the EU, namely coupled payments for prot...
Article
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Agriculture, forestry and other land use are important components of a global strategy to limit climate change. Using the example of EU agriculture, this paper examines the potential contribution of technological (i.e. technical and management-based) greenhouse gas mitigation options to climate targets. The quantitative framework presented allows t...
Article
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p>Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to...
Article
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Numerous studies show that insects are efficient in converting organic waste into proteins and fats, which makes them an interesting alternative source of feed. Moreover, since around one-third of global food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted, the production of insect-based meals from food waste is considered a sustainable alternativ...
Preprint
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This paper investigates how the short-lived character of methane could have important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture, sector which is often seen to have a limited contribution to a net-zero carbon economy. Motivated by the renewed attention for the short-term versus long-term warming effects...
Technical Report
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This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most rele...
Technical Report
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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused and continues to cause considerable economic hardship, with significant pressures on all agri-food markets, including the Fruit and Vegetable (F&V) sector. Several determinants, such as social distancing measures, international restrictions on travel and immigration, and an international price war in crude oil,...
Technical Report
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This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission no...
Preprint
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Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security,...
Article
The analysis of uncertainty in large-scale agricultural economic models has gained attention from a policymakers and researchers’ viewpoint. The different methodologies available vary depending on data availability and the nature of the variables subject to analysis, which in turn influences the outcomes. When evaluating the results of previously a...
Article
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Volatile prices and income uncertainties are major issues for farmers, leading to a demand for policies that mitigate such risks. However, the budgetary consequences of risk management schemes are uncertain due to their dependence on market prices. Using an agricultural multi-commodity market model, we evaluate the potential budgetary consequences...
Article
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This paper analyses the impacts on global agricultural markets of the demand shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the first wave of lockdown measures imposed by the governments in the first semester of 2020 to contain it. Specifically, we perform a scenario-based analysis on the IMF economic growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 using a global mu...
Technical Report
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This report provides quantitative modelling-based results from biophysical and agro-economic models as part of the PESETA-IV (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project. We analyse climate change projections for 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP...
Technical Report
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The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extrem...
Technical Report
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This report highlights the importance of assessing emission mitigation from a multi-dimensional perspective. For this, a quantitative framework to analyse the potential contribution of different technological mitigation options in EU agriculture is described in this report. Within the boundaries of the analysis, the need to consider land use, land-...
Technical Report
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The workshop ‘EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook’ is an integral part of the validation process of the outlook published in the European Commission’s report on ‘Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income’. The workshop provides a forum for exchanges on preliminary projections to 2030 of EU agricultural commodity...
Article
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Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yi...
Article
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Limiting climate change below a 2 degree temperature increase this century will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to a climate-friendly, low carbon society. In this paper, the economic impact of a less carbon-intensive economy on agricultural markets is estimated by means of an integrated modelling framew...
Conference Paper
Europe experienced exceptional climate conditions in spring and summer 2018. The extreme drought in central and northern Europe heavily affected key socio-economic sectors. While, anomalous wet conditions in southern Europe favoured sectors such as agriculture triggering crop yield gains that partially offset the losses in central and northern Euro...
Article
Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural...
Article
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Agroclimatic extremes can be seen as typical supply shifters that, on a par with economic and structural drivers, distort supply, demand, trade, and induce price variability. Economic simulation models typically operate under the assumption of ‘normal’ growing conditions, contain no explicit parameterization of climatic anomalies on the supply side...
Article
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Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mit...
Technical Report
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The workshop 'Medium-term Outlook for the EU Agricultural Commodity markets' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission’s report 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary medium term projections of the most relevant EU agricultura...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report presents the agro-economic analysis within the PESETA III project, focusing on the effects of climate change on crop yields and related impacts on EU agricultural production, trade, prices, consumption, income, and welfare. For this purpose the CAPRI modelling system was employed, using a combination of a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (S...
Book
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The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical northsouth divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario. ► How to cite: ◄ Ciscar Martinez, J.-C., Ibarreta Ruiz, D.,...
Technical Report
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The primary objective of this report is to document the improvements made to the Brazilian module of the Aglink-Cosimo model (Enciso et al., 2015; OECD-FAO, 2015) related to the inclusion of land use dynamics. Aglink-Cosimo is an agricultural partial equilibrium model developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) an...
Article
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Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect im...
Article
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Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable gen...
Article
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effo...
Article
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This paper contributes to the literature on the trade liberalization – climate change nexus by investigating the impact of the current free trade agenda of the European Union (EU) on the effectiveness of a possible greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy for its agricultural sector. For the analysis we implement scenarios with a carbon tax on non-CO2...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The workshop on the 'EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission’s report on 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary 10-year-ahead projections in EU agricultural...
Conference Paper
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We present a further developed CAPRI modelling approach for technological (i.e. technical and management-based) greenhouse gas emission mitigation options. The model is employed to assess the potential of mitigation technologies in EU agriculture by 2030, and how their application could impact agricultural market and emission developments. Scenario...
Conference Paper
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Our paper contributes to the literature on the trade liberalization-climate change nexus by investigating the impact of the current free trade agenda of the European Union (EU) to possible greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies for its agricultural sector. For the analysis we implement a carbon tax and trade liberalization scenarios both individua...
Article
Changes in meat consumption patterns could induce significant adjustments in agricultural markets. In this paper alternative scenarios envisaging lower meat consumption over the coming decade in high income countries and some selected emerging economies have been tested, with or without compensation by other sources of proteins. From a European per...
Technical Report
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This report presents a global integrated assessment of the range of potential economic impacts of climate change and stringent mitigation measures in the agricultural sector. The analysis employs five global multi-region multi-commodity models and covers selected combinations of socioeconomic storylines and climate signals by mid-century. Model inp...
Technical Report
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The project 'Economic Assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture (EcAMPA)' is designed to assess some aspects of a potential inclusion of the agricultural sector into the EU 2030 climate policy framework. In the context of possible reductions of non-CO2 emissions from EU agriculture, the scenario results of the EcAMPA 2 study hi...
Article
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In this paper we assess the impact of abolishing biofuel policies (mandates, tax credits, import and export tariffs) on agricultural price levels and price variability as well as some aspects related to global food security. For the analysis we employ a recursive-dynamic agricultural multi-commodity model within a stochastic framework. Results of...
Technical Report
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The aim of the expert workshop “Medium-term outlook for the EU agricultural commodity market”, held in October 2015 in Brussels, was to present and discuss the preliminary results of the outlook of the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) on European Union (EU) agricultural market developments. Participants included h...
Technical Report
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The study enables the CAPRI model to make simulations of the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production, as well as looking at the sustainable use of water and the implementation of water-related policies including water pricing. To investigate the role of irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change...
Article
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During the last decade the European Union has shown a firm determination to move to a low carbon economy. Since 2008 the agricultural sector has been part of this strategy and is included in the EU effort sharing decision. Introducing specific GHG mitigation obligations for agriculture could be one option to achieve an overall GHG emission reductio...
Article
This article discusses the role of post model processing and Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) in the context of applying large and complex economic simulation models for Impact Assessment (IA) of policies impacting the agricultural and food sectors. The calculation of indicators from different domains and decomposition approaches is presented as pa...
Technical Report
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This report contains a summary and the presentations of the expert workshop “Commodity Market Development in Europe—Outlook”, held in October 2014 in Brussels. The workshop was held in order to present and discuss the preliminary results of the DG AGRI outlook on EU agricultural market Developments. The workshop gathered high-level policy makers, m...
Article
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The contribution of the agricultural sector to climate change is gaining more and more visibility and therewith, interest is growing on policy options to induce agricultural GHG mitigation. However, so far only little is known about the different impacts of specific policies on GHG mitigation on the one hand and agricultural production and markets...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The contribution of the agricultural sector to climate change is gaining more and more visibility and therewith interest is growing on policy options to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of the implementation of specific policy options to mitigate agricultura...
Article
This article investigates the income effects of decoupled payments distributed at the farm-type or uniformly at the regional level within the European Union. The analysis was conducted using detailed information on the implementation of the Health Check policy package for agricultural activities in each of the 27 member states, which is included in...
Article
This article investigates the income effects of decoupled payments distributed at the farm-type or uniformly at the regional level within the European Union. The analysis was conducted using detailed information on the implementation of the Health Check policy package for agricultural activities in each of the 27 member states, which is included in...