Ignacio de Blas

Universidad de Valladolid | UVA · Department of Systems Engineering and Automation

The climate change that is currently occurring is due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that directly or indirectly affect GHG emissions, as well as the multiple and complex relationships between them, makes it difficult to make d...

Four explorative scenarios, depicting different strategies for the decarbonization of global transportation by 2050, have been implemented in the IAM MEDEAS-World which allows to take into account two factors understudied in the literature: the potential of lifestyle change and mineral requirements of mobility alternatives. Co, Li and Ni emerge as...

Today's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulat...

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...

Achieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) is particularly challenging for transportation due to the technical limitations of replacing oil-based fuels. We apply the integrated assessment model MEDEAS-World to study four global transportation decarbonization strategies for 2050. The results show that a massive replacement of oil-fuele...

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...

A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human...

The estimation of future energy demand is a key factor for the development of effective alternative policies towards a low carbon economy. This paper describes a novel method to estimate the energy demand in the new integrated assessment framework MEDEAS based on the projection of sectoral final energy intensities. The dynamic of each of the sector...

Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module withi...

This document documents the “World Limits Model” version 1.5 (WoLiM 1.5), reporting the methods, rationale and hypothesis applied. This model is an energy-economy-environment simulation system dynamics model that focus on future energy resource availability and its implications for human socioeconomic systems at world aggregated level. In this vers...