Ian Michael Trotter

Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) | UFV · Departamento de Economia Rural

We describe a stochastic dynamic programming model for maximising the revenue generated by regasification of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from storage tanks at importation terminals in relation to a natural gas spot market. We present three numerical resolution strategies: a posterior optimal strategy, a rolling intrinsic strategy and a full option...

We present a framework for incorporating weather uncertainty into electricity demand forecasting when weather patterns cannot be assumed to be stable, such as in climate change scenarios. This is done by first calibrating an econometric model for electricity demand on historical data, and subsequently applying the model to a large number of simulat...

Although Paraguay has a surplus of electricity generation capacity, an underdeveloped electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure has constrained economic growth. The trajectory of future electricity demand is therefore important for planning purposes. We create electricity demand scenarios for Paraguay between 2017 and 2050 for two cl...

The transition to renewable energy will require large investments in renewable power generation capacity, made under large risks regarding future revenues. This study presents an analysis of different risk factors for future power prices and renewable energy market values in Norway, a region dominated by renewable power. We use a combination of glo...

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable power for heating is a cornerstone of the sustainable energy transition. However, the simultaneous increase in power-to-heat and renewable power generation exacerbates the weather risk experienced by the power system. The aim of this study is therefore to quantify the increase in weather risk caused by...

Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change, as they often depend on agriculture and have less adaptation possibilities. The present paper assesses the economic implications of climate change in Paraguay, by incorporating projected crop productivity impacts due to climate change in a global multi-region and multi-sector general...

Brazil is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of agricultural products. And it should continue to expand its production in the coming decades, thus remaining one of the main providers of food, fiber and bioenergy for domestic and foreign consumption. This study aimed to analyze, through the Static Computable General Equilibrium model...

O propósito deste artigo foi avaliar os impactos da redução do custo de transporte para o setor de soja nas regiões brasileiras. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, foram simulados uma melhoria no sistema de transportes nas regiões brasileiras sobre o setor de soja e os impactos nos principias blocos comerciais, utilizando-se o modelo Projeto de Anál...

This paper aims to analyze the effects of a public policy based on negative income tax (NIT) ideals as an alternative to the current social programs of income transfer in Brazil. A multiregional applied computable general equilibrium model of Brazil's economy is used to analyze the impacts on households' welfare, split into 10 income classes, and 2...

Weather is one of the main drivers of both the power demand and supply, especially in the Nordic region which is characterized by high heating needs and a high share of renewable energy. Furthermore, ambitious decarbonization plans may cause power to replace fossil fuels for heating in the Nordic region, at the same time as large wind power expansi...

The present study evaluated the effects of the formation of a possible free trade agreement between Brazil, the United States, the European Union and China in the GDP, welfare and trade of the member countries. In order to achieve the objective of this work, the computable general equilibrium was used as a basis, being modeled by General Equilibriu...

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures are poorly understood. To contribute to the understanding of the economic and human consequences of such poli...

Poverty is a destructive phenomenon in the lives of children from poor families. It delays the education of these children and pushes the family to send children into the labor market. Based on data from PNAD 2015, this research examines the determinants of schooling and child labor, and especially, linking with poverty. From a bivariate probit mod...

O impacto da liberalização comercial nos níveis nacionais de desigualdade é um dos tópicos mais discutidos nos países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimentos. Este trabalho avaliou os efeitos de uma possível redução de barreiras comerciais entre o Brasil, Usa e a China na desigualdade no Brasil. Para atingir o objetivo proposto utilizou-se um modelo ap...

This study shows that access to grid electricity is an important driving mechanism of the structural transformation process. Improving electricity availability accelerates the structural transformation through generating higher returns and lowering entry costs in sectors with greater infrastructure intensity. Econometric analysis suggests that the...

Grupo de Pesquisa: GT7. Desenvolvimento rural, territorial e regional Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos do Programa Bolsa Família sobre o bem-estar econômico das famílias rurais nas macrorregiões brasileiras, contribuindo para o debate sobre programas de transferência de renda. Os objetivos do estudo são analisar o impacto do Programa Bolsa no...

The study analyzed the impacts of the implementation of a neutral environmental tax rule in the Brazilian economy, considering that this favors the more sustainable use of environmental resources. For this, the General Equilibrium Model was used, associated to the Project of Analysis of General Equilibrium of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) for the si...

This work aims to characterize the Brazilian economy productive structure as an activity network. Using networks analysis methods, 2010 national input-output matrix data from the Brazilian statistics bureau (IBGE) and 2011 subnational matrices from Haddad, Júnior and Nascimento (2017), we were able to describe the interdependence among resources em...

This study shows that access to grid electricity is an important driving mechanism of the structural transformation process. Improving electricity availability accelerates the structural transformation through generating higher returns and lowering entry costs in sectors with greater infrastructure intensity. Econometric analysis suggests that the...

This study shows that access to grid electricity is an important driving mechanism of the structural transformation process. Improving electricity availability accelerates the structural transformation through generating higher returns and lowering entry costs in sectors with greater infrastructure intensity. Econometric analysis suggests that the...

Este estudo busca averiguar o impacto de um acordo comercial entre o Mercosul e a União Europeia na produção e exportação de 19 setores agregados bem como nos preços dos fatores de produção primário, bem-estar, PIB e gastos do governo. O trabalho emprega o modelo do Projeto de Análise de Equilíbrio Geral (PAEG) 4.0, possibilitando analisar os resul...

Soft polytomies emerge due to the application of handmade supertrees in phylogenetic community analysis, thus increasing uncertainties regarding phylogenetic diversity or community structure indices. Real-time integration of advances in phylogenetic knowledge among species from public data repositories, such as Open Tree of Life, may reduce this un...

Fiscal policy is one of the most important instruments of macroeconomic policy, especially in developing countries such as Brazil. This study intends to contribute to the literature by presenting a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium - DSGE model that captures the effect of a set of fiscal policies on economic growth, in particular with applicat...

Aims The vegetation on Brazilian Páramos consists of assemblages that are driven mainly by the influence of strong environmental filtering. It is very important to understand the effect of environmental variation on taxonomic diversity and on functional diversity. Considering the lack of information about the functional diversity in Brazilian Páram...

Abstract for our individual contribution to the upcoming ICSP 2016, 25 Jun - 1 Jul, Búzios, Brazil.

This study explores the relationship between key characteristics of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects and Certified Emission Reduction (CER) prices. Using Multiple Correspondence Analysis, we show that the CER credit prices are likely to have had a greater influence than regional levels of economic development on the sectors, regions and s...