Hukum Chandra

Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute

Spatial version of multivariate Fay–Herriot model is introduced and small area predictor under this model is proposed. The residual maximum likelihood is employed for estimating the parameters of the proposed model. Analytical and bootstrap approaches for estimating the mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed predictor are also developed. The perf...

Background Local governments and other public health entities often need population health measures at the county or subcounty level for activities such as resource allocation and targeting public health interventions, among others. Information collected via national surveys alone cannot fill these needs. We propose a novel, two-step method for res...

Bangladesh has experienced a rapid national decline in fertility in recent decades, however, fertility rates vary considerably at the sub-national level (i.e., division). These variations are expected to be more pronounced at lower levels of geography (e.g., district level). However, routinely conducted demographic health surveys are designed for n...

Objective Food security is an important policy issue in India. As India recently ranked 107th out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index, there is an urgent need to dissect, and gain insights into, such a major decline at the national level. However, the existing surveys, due to small sample sizes, cannot be used directly to produce relia...

The earning inequality in India has unfavorably obstructed underprivileged in accessing elementary needs like health and education. Periodic labour force survey conducted by National Statistical Office of India generates estimates on earning status at national and state level for both rural and urban sectors separately. However, due to small sample...

The economy of India is growing continuously with its gross domestic product increasing rapidly than most of the developing countries. Nonetheless an increase in national gross domestic product is not revealing the earning parity at micro level in the country. The earning inequality in a country like India has adversely obstructed under privileged...

District-representative data are rarely collected in the surveys for identifying localised disparities in Bangladesh, and so district-level estimates of undernutrition indicators-stunting, wasting and underweight-have remained largely unexplored. This study aims to estimate district-level prevalence of these indicators by employing a multivariate F...

The management of energy consumption in agriculture is a worldwide concern because of the adverse effects of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, which are generally used as an energy source for various applications in agriculture. Renewable energy technologies are promoted in many parts of the world for various agriculture applications for mitigating...

This paper proposed a revised calibration weight based finite population ratio estimator under two phase sampling design assuming the condition that two auxiliary variable,correlated to numerator and denominator variable of the ratio were available at unit level for the first-phase sample. But, population level auxiliary variables were not availabl...

Executes nonstationary Fay-Herriot model and nonstationary generalized linear mixed model for small area estimation.The empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) under stationary and nonstationary Fay-Herriot models and empirical best predictor (EBP) under nonstationary generalized linear mixed model along with the mean squared error estimat...

Although India has progressed significantly on several health outcomes but the state of food and nutrition security in the country still requires sustained efforts to accelerate achievement. Existing data based on socio-economic surveys conducted by National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) produce precise measures of food and nutrition security status...

Spatial version of multivariate Fay–Herriot model is introduced and small area predictor under this model is proposed. The mean squared error (MSE) estimation of the proposed small area predictor is also developed. The empirical performance of the proposed small area predictor and the MSE estimator are evaluated through simulation studies. The empi...

Spatial version of multivariate Fay–Herriot model is introduced and small area predictor under this model is proposed. The mean squared error (MSE) estimation of the proposed small area predictor is also developed. The empirical performance of the proposed small area predictor and the MSE estimator are evaluated through simulation studies. The empi...

In recent times, India has achieved significant advancement on several health indicators while the state of food security in the country still needs sustained efforts to accelerate attainment. Existing data based on socio-economic surveys conducted by National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) produce precise measures of food security status at state and...

Despite having long term efforts, poverty is an important and persistent social issue in India. Existing data based on socio-economic surveys produce state and nationally representative poverty estimates but cannot be used directly to generate reliable disaggregate or local level estimates. The state and national level estimates often mask the vari...

Energy assessment and identification of energy intensive operations are the prime techniques in finding out possible solutions to energy management in agriculture. Increasing energy efficiency and reduction of energy intensity are the prime factors to utilize available energy in agriculture. These lead to improved energy efficiency and reduced cost...

India is an agriculture-based country which has experienced enormous change in food and nutrition utilization since financial changes in the mid-1990s. Agribusiness is considered as the backbone of Indian economy. Therefore, the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) holds agricultural importance, contributing to a major share of our national income. High finan...

In many surveys (for example, agriculture, forestry, environmental and ecological surveys), data are spatially correlated and independence assumption is questionable. As a result, the existing estimators for population total (or mean) based on standard survey estimation method can be biased and less efficient. Use of spatial information in sample s...

The Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger is a bold commitment towards 795 million undernourished people to end all forms of hunger and malnutrition by 2030 (http://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals/goal-2-zero-hunger/). India, sharing a quarter of the global hunger burden, has set a comprehensive action against the food insecurity a...

To draw inference from the collected data under the pilot study was taken up to examine the reliability of estimates of crop area and crop production at state and national level on the basis of sample sizes recommended by the Prof. Vaidyanathan committee report, a paper based survey was conducted in five states, namely, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Karnat...

It was observed that around 1300000 Crop Cutting Experiments (CCE) were conducted in india every year to find out the crop yield estimates of several major and minor crops under General Crop Estimation Surveys (GCES). Due to shortage of manpower and huge bulk of work day by day the data quality is becoming questionable. To tackle this problem, a pi...

Food insecurity is an important and persistent social issue in Bangladesh. Existing data based on socio-economic surveys produce divisional and nationally representative food insecurity estimates but these surveys cannot be used directly to generate reliable district level estimates. We deliberate small area estimation (SAE) approach for estimating...

This chapter describes small area estimation (SAE) approach to produce the small area estimates of the total basal cover (m²/ha) for trees, shrubs and herbs for the state of Maharashtra in India. All seven forest types are defined as small areas. The analysis uses the data of survey conducted by Tropical Forest Research Institute, Jabalpur, India d...

This book presents recent developments in statistical methodologies with particular relevance to applications in forestry and environmental sciences. It discusses important methodologies like ranked set sampling, adaptive cluster sampling, small area estimation, calibration approach-based estimators, design of experiments, multivariate techniques,...

Discriminant function analysis technique using Bayesian approach has been attempted for wheat forecasting in Kanpur district of Uttar Pradesh, India both qualitatively and quantitatively. Crop yield data and weekly weather data on temperature (maximum and minimum), relative humidity (maximum and minimum), rainfall for 16 weeks of the crop cultivati...

Improved chain-ratio estimators for the population mean based on two-phase sampling are proposed when the study variable and two auxiliary variables comprise non-response. Auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. Their biases and mean square errors are estimated under large sample approxim...

Auxiliary information is often used to improve the precision of estimators of finite population total. Calibration approach (Deville and Sarndal, 1992) is widely used for making efficient use of auxiliary information in survey estimation. Aditya et al. (2016) proposed regression type estimators of the population total using the calibration approach...

Sustainable development goal-1 of the United Nations is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. The estimates of poverty related parameters obtained from large scale sample survey are often available at large domain level (e.g. state level). But, poverty rates are not uniformly distributed across the regions. The regional variations are masked...

Chain-ratio estimators are often used to improve the efficiency of the estimation of the population total or the mean using two auxiliary variables, available in two different phases. An improved chain-ratio estimator for the population total based on double sampling is proposed when auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not...

Several factors, including weather vagaries, possess a serious threat to agricultural crop production in India and also are noteworthy risks to the economy. Crop yield depends on nutrition level of soils, fertilizer availability and cost, pest control, agro-meteorological input parameters like temperature, rainfall and other factors. Further, each...

Many often two surveys conducted independently with same or different objectives, may have some auxiliary variables in common. The first survey, which has small sample size, collects both variable of interest as well as auxiliary variables. The second survey, relatively larger in sample size, has only some auxiliary variables in common to the first...

The demand for district level statistics has increased tremendously in Bangladesh due to existence of decentralised approach to governance and service provision. The Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys (BDHS) provide a wide range of invaluable data at the national and divisional level but they cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-...

Original data set. District level direct estimates of diarrhea prevalence in Bangladesh obtained. (XLSX)

This paper considers the problem of finite population mean estimation using the information available on two auxiliary variables in the presence of nonresponse using two phase sampling scheme. Four classes of improved chain ratio type estimators have been proposed in four different situations of nonresponse along with their bias and mean square err...

Poverty estimation and analysis in India mainly gets emphasis on the national and sub-national level. The poverty related statistics generated by the different agencies are available only at these levels however, that too without any measure of precision of these estimates. Development of sub-national level policy planning to address the vicious cy...

Ratio estimator is widely used survey estimation method for estimating the finite population mean (or total) using auxiliary variable which is linearly related to study variable. However, this method requires the availability of aggregate level population information for auxiliary variable which may not be always available. As a result, in many pra...

Ratio estimator is widely used survey estimation method for estimating the finite population mean (or total) using auxiliary variable which is linearly related to study variable. However, this method requires the availability of aggregate level population information for auxiliary variable which may not be always available. As a result, in many pra...

The ELL poverty mapping method (Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw, 2003) has been criticized because of the risk of underestimating the mean squared error (MSE) of the corresponding poverty estimates when the area homogeneity assumption is violated. Das and Chambers (2017) describe a robust ELL-based MSE estimation approach that assumes unit-level homosc...

Poverty affects many people, but the ramifications and impacts affect all aspects of society. Information about the incidence of poverty is therefore an important parameter of the population for policy analysis and decision making. In order to provide specific, targeted solutions when addressing poverty disadvantage small area statistics are needed...

NSSO data district aggregate—Bihar. (XLSX)

Population census 2011 data—Bihar. (XLSX)

Deep and persistent disadvantage is an important, but statistically rare, phenomenon in the population, and sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. Survey samples are typically designed to produce estimates of population characteristics of planned areas. The sample sizes are calculated so...

We describe a methodology for small area estimation of counts that assumes an area-level version of a nonparametric generalized linear mixed model with a mean structure defined using spatial splines. The proposed method represents an alternative to other small area estimation methods based on area level spatial models that are designed for both spa...

Regression analysis is a widely used technique for studying the relationship between variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the estimation of regression coefficient in the context of two-stage survey data using single auxiliary variable. The theory of calibration approach is used to develop the estimators based on assumption th...

In this paper, we describe small area estimation (SAE) under a spatial dependent random effects model by combining data from two independent surveys. The spatial dependence is introduced using simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) structure in the random area effects part of the model. We use data from two independent surveys. The first survey, small i...

The apparent use of total food grains produced in any country is for the purpose of human consumption, animal feed and seed requirements. Despite all possible preventive efforts, large quantities are also wasted from the time the grain is harvested till it reaches the consumer. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the outcome of a pilot study fo...

Area level models are often used for small area estimation when auxiliary data are available only as area aggregates. A popular area level model used for small area estimation is the Fay-Herriot model. In many small area applications, Fay-Herriot model is often fitted on logarithm (log) scale and model parameters are estimated under this model. Thi...

In this paper, we propose a chain ratio type and a chain product type estimator of population total in two phase sampling when information on two auxiliary characters is available in different phases. It is assumed that complete information is available for one auxiliary variable while information is not available for other auxiliary variable, assu...

Estimation of major crop yield rates at the district level using calibration estimation technique is reported here when auxiliary information is available at the unit level only for the selected villages within each district and when the sampling design under consideration is two-stage equal probability without replacement. An estimator was develop...

This paper describes small area estimation (SAE) of proportions under a spatial dependent generalized linear mixed model using aggregated level data. The SAE is also applied to produce reliable district level estimates and mapping of incidence of indebtedness in the State of Uttar Pradesh in India using debt and investment survey data collected by...

For studying the relationship between different variables, regression analysis is a widely used technique. The conventional ordinary least square estimator of regression coefficient is not suitable for complex survey data. In this paper, a calibration approach based estimator of finite population regression coefficient has been developed for survey...

In every country various surveys and Censuses are carried out at fairly regular interval to generate estimates of important agricultural and social parameters. Due to several new policies and schemes demand of data is increasing but the man power remains the same. The use of conventional method of data collection, i.e. Paper Assisted Personal Inter...

Data entry software has designed to reduce the paper work and to provide the authenticity of data which collected from the fields. Software is developed using .Net Technology. ASP.net windows forms in visual c# has been used for designing of the user interface and coding of business logics in the system. The database of this system contains informa...

On the basis of a gaps analysis, a methodology has been developed to estimate crop area and crop yield in mixed and continuous cropping scenarios. In this regard, several alternatives have been considered, depending upon the information available in the agricultural statistical system. The different methods for the area apportionment of a crop mixt...

There is a growing need for current and reliable counts at small area level. The empirical predictor under a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is often used for small area estimation (SAE) of such counts. However, the fixed effect parameters of a GLMM are spatially invariant and do not account for the presence of spatial nonstationarity in the...

Auxiliary information is often used to improve the precision of estimators of finite population total. Calibration approach is widely used for making efficient use of auxiliary information in survey estimation. We proposed the regression type estimators of the population total using the calibration approach under the assumption that the population...

This technical report provides findings of field tests conducted in selected districts/study area in three countries i.e. Indonesia, Rwanda and Jamaica on the basis of methodology developed by the team at ICAR-IASRI on estimation of crop area, yield and production under mixed and continuous cropping. Different methods of determination of crop area...

Regression analysis is a widely used tool for expressing the relationship between two variables. The standard approach of estimation of regression coefficient needs to be modified in the context of survey data as it involves violation of assumption of the standard regression approach. In this paper, using the calibration approach an attempt is made...

In this article a calibration estimator for finite population total has been developed in two-stage sampling when the auxiliary information is available at the element level for the only selected first-stage units in the random sample. The expression for the variance of the estimator is also obtained. Empirical studies based on both generated and r...

Using the calibration approach, the Hansen and Hurwitz (19467. Hansen, M.H., Hurwitz, W.N. (1946). The problem of non response in sample surveys. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 46:147–190.View all references) technique-based estimator is developed for the situation where the information on auxiliary variable is assumed known for the entire population units. T...

Regression coefficient iswidely used for studying the relationship between variables. In the case of two-stage sampling design, estimation of regression coefficient using traditional ordinary least squares technique is not appropriate as it violates the assumption of independence of observations. The calibration approach is used here for developing...

Regression type estimators of the population total were developed using the calibration approach under the assumption that the population level auxiliary information is available at primary stage unit level under two stage sampling design. The variance and the estimator of the variance of the proposed estimators were also developed. Theoretical res...

This chapter focuses on small area inference methods for a unit level income-type response that is strictly positive and right-skewed. In particular, it compares three predictors based on the assumption that these data follow a lognormal distribution. The three predictors are analogous to a synthetic estimator, a model-based direct estimator, and a...

Most small area estimation (SAE) methods focus on estimation of linear parameters, for example small area means or totals, with comparatively little attention paid to estimation of small area distributions. This chapter summarizes the work of Salvati et al. on model-based direct estimator (MBDE) for the small area distribution function along with i...

This technical report focuses on methodologies used for estimation of a crop area and crop yield under mixed and continuous cropping. It provides a review of the literature on methodologies used for estimation of crop area and crop yield in developed and developing countries. The report begins with descriptions of relevant concepts and definitions...

It is an out come of research papers presented in the 68th annual conference of Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics (ISAS). It consists of 33 chapters covering wide range of topics both in Statistics and Informatics.

This technical report provides the gap analysis in the context of mixed and continuous cropping with regard to crop area and yield estimation. Based on gap analysis, an appropriate methodology is developed for carrying out estimation of crop area and crop yield in the mixed and continuous cropping scenario. Various concepts and definitions of surve...

Unit level linear mixed models are often used in small area estimation (SAE), and the empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) is widely used for the estimation of small area means under such models. However, EBLUP requires population level auxiliary data, atleast area specific aggregated values. Sometimes population level auxiliary data i...

Small area estimates based on the widely used area-level model proposed in Fay and Herriot (1979) assume that the area-level direct estimates are spatially uncorrelated. In many cases, however, this is not the case. Extensions of the Fay-Herriot model to allow for spatial correlation have been proposed, but all assume spatial stationarity; i.e., th...

Hansen and Hurwitz (1946) technique based estimator of population total is proposed using the calibration approach under the assumption that the auxiliary variable is negatively correlated with the study variable. The variance estimation is also considered. The two-phase sampling case is also explored. The theoretical results are demonstrated throu...

Role of applied Statistics in Forestry research is very crucial starting from the data collection, drawn inferences to the conclusion and interpretation of the valid results of specified objective under procedurally and economically optimized way. In forestry science, forest biometry has a pervasive influence in the development and application of s...

Bouza (1990) and Bouza & Allende (1991) proposed shrunken predictors and analyzed their behavior in stratified sampling under super-population models (0,1:1). Robustness of the shrunken predictors measured in terms of bias and mean squared error (MSE) was further studied by Bouza (1994) which depends on stratified balanced sample and difference bet...

Crop production statistics for smaller geographical (or small area) levels like Community Development Block level (Block) or Gram Panchayat (GP) level are in great demand to make area-specific plans for agricultural development programmes in India. The crop production estimates in the country are obtained through scientifically designed Crop Cuttin...

Many variables of interest in business and agricultural surveys have skewed distributions. Small area estimation methods are investigated under an assumption that the lognormal model is a reasonable approximation for the distribution of the response given covariates. Closed form expressions for an empirical Bayes (EB) predictor and for the associat...

A regression-type estimator of population total is developed using the calibration approach under the assumption that the auxiliary variable is negatively correlated with the study variable. An estimator of the variance of the proposed estimator is developed. In addition, a higher order calibration approach has been described for the estimator of t...