Hui Tong

• International Monetary Fund

A country may adopt policy measures such as raising its foreign exchange reserves to better prepare for sudden reversal of international capital flows or currency attacks, which in principle should reduce financial vulnerability for its firms and the entire economy, but the beneficial effect of such policies may be partially offset by endogenous fi...

Significance This paper adds another dimension to the analysis of equilibria in markets with sophisticated traders. There is a rat race between sophisticated investors, who purchase assets in advance of receiving information. Thereby they avoid the loss due to waiting too long if the information turns out positive, as they also take advantage of th...

This paper investigates whether and how unconventional interventions in 2008–2010 unfroze the credit market. We construct a dataset of 198 interventions for 16 countries during 2008–2010 and examine heterogeneous responses in stock prices to the interventions across 7,873 nonfinancial firms in those countries. Stock prices increase when the interve...

This paper explores several questions about credit booms and busts: When do credit booms occur? When do they end up in busts, and when do they not? What are the implications for different policies if curbing credit growth and/or mitigating the associated risks is an objective? We find that credit booms are often associated with financial reform and...

We find that capital in the range of 15–23 percent of risk-weighted assets would have been sufficient to absorb losses in the vast majority of historic banking crises in advanced economies. Further capital increases would have had only marginal effects on preventing additional crises. Appropriate capital requirements may be somewhat below this rang...

This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis affected firms and the efficacy of policies to mitigate the crisis. It analyzes stock price responses for 3,045 nonfinancial firms in 16 countries to four key policy events during 2010-11. Using precrisis benchmarks, it separates financial effects from trade effects and examines how bank and...

This paper studies the significant variation in the cross-section of standalone and systemic risk of large banks during the recent financial crisis to identify bank specific factors that determine risk. We find that systemic risk grows with bank size and is inversely related to bank capital, and this effect exists above and beyond the effect of ban...

We examine the impact of Chinese currency (renminbi) revaluation on firm valuations, focusing on the effect of surprise announcements of changes in China’s currency policy on 9,753 manufacturing firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has no significant impact on the valuation of firms in sectors exporting to China on average. But this “non-re...

We develop a model predicting two channels through which creditor protection affects stock prices: (1) the probability of a liquidity crisis leading to a binding investment-finance constraint falls with better creditor protection; (2) the stock prices under the investment-constrained regime increase with better creditor protection. We find evidence...

Large banks are riskier, and create more systemic risk, when they have lower capital and less-stable funding. Large banks create more systemic risk (but are not individually riskier) when they engage more in market-based activities or are more organizationally complex. Traditional bank regulation, which focuses on individual bank risk, may be insuf...

This paper studies the significant variation in the cross-section of standalone and systemic risk of large banks during the recent financial crisis to identify bank specific factors that determine risk. We find that systemic risk grows with bank size and is inversely related to bank capital, and this effect exists above and beyond the effect of ban...

We develop a model predicting two channels through which creditor protection enhances the performance of stock prices: (1) The probability of a liquidity crisis leading to a binding investment-finance constraint falls with a strong protection of creditors; (1) The stock prices under the investment-constrained regime increase with better protection...

This note explores the costs and benefits of different policy options to reduce the risks associated with credit booms, drawing upon several country experiences and the findings from econometric analysis.

How does increasing globalization affect corporate transparency? Freer trade represents different facets and in theory has ambiguous effects on corporate transparency. On the one hand, by exposing firms to more product market competition, it could discourage discretionary disclosure. On the other hand, by opening up foreign markets and enhancing fi...

We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but little positive or even a negative impact on those providing inputs...

This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis has affected firm valuations globally. It examines stock price responses over the past year for 3045 non-financial firms in 16 countries to three key crisis events. Using pre-crisis benchmarks, it separates effects arising from changes in external financing and trade conditions and examines...

Using accounting data for 7722 non-financial firms in 42 countries, we examine how the 2007-2009 crisis affected firm performance and how various linkages propagated shocks across borders. We isolate and compare effects from changes in external financing conditions, domestic demand, and international trade on firms’ profits, sales and investment us...

We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and employing data on some 6,000 firms in 44 economies. Stock returns rise with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction appears to reflect a combination of improvements...

This paper aims to gauge the global effect of renminbi revaluation on stock markets. Using data on 12,300 firms in operating in tradable sectors in 44 economies, we find that expectations of renminbi appreciation reduce the relative stock returns of firms providing components or raw materials to China as inputs for that country's exports. We also f...

This paper examines the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuation and, by implication, firm prospects. To deal with the potential endogeneity of exchange rate movements, we consider not just official announcements of exchange rate policy but also 27 instances of market-perceived changes in China’s currency policy driven by domestic o...

When the credit market was frozen in spite of a low nominal interest rate during the 2008-2010 global financial crisis, many governments undertook a set of unconventional measures, such as debt guarantee, bank recapitalization, and purchase of bank toxic assets. Did these unconventional interventions achieve their intended policy objective of unfre...

China’s high corporate savings rate is commonly claimed to be a key driver for the country’s large current account surplus. The mainstream explanation for high corporate savings is a combination of windfall profits in state-owned firms, especially in resource sectors, and mis-governance of state-owned firms represented by their low dividend payout....

This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy affects global stock prices. We find that global stock prices respond strongly to changes in U.S. interest rate policy, with stock prices increasing (decreasing) following unexpected monetary loosening (tightening). This impact is more pronounced for sectors that depend on external financing, and for coun...

This article studies whether the volume and composition of capital flows affect the degree of credit crunch during the 2007–2009 crisis. Using data on 3,823 firms in 24 emerging countries, we find that, on average, the decline in stock prices was more severe for firms that are intrinsically more dependent on external finance for working capital. In...

The paper presents a robust but previously undocumented data pattern: corporate risk taking is positively correlated with country-level foreign exchange reserve holdings (as a share of the GDP). With data on 5000 manufacturing firms in 24 emerging economies during 2000-2006, we show that foreign reserve accumulation is economically and statisticall...

FDI investors control the management of the firms, whereas FPI investors delegate decisions to managers. Therefore, direct investors are more informed than portfolio investors about the prospects of projects. This information enables them to manage their projects more efficiently. However, if investors need to sell their investments before maturity...

This paper proposes a simple framework (a) to quantify the importance of the finance shock to non-financial firms in 45 countries by exploring cross-firm heterogeneity in dependence on external finance for working capital and investment, and (b) to study whether and how the type of financial system, the nature of monetary and exchange rate regime,...

Data show that better creditor protection is correlated across countries with lower average stock market volatility. Moreover, countries with better creditor protection are observed to have suffered lower decline in their stock market indexes during the current financial crisis. To explain this regularity, we use a stylised Tobin-q model of investm...

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich stabilisiert. Die Produktion im zweiten Quartal 2009 verlief �berraschend positiv. Im dritten Quartal d�rfte sie deutlich angezogen haben. Alles in allem revidieren wir unsere Prognose f�r das Jahr 2009 nach oben. Wir rechnen nun mit einem R�ckgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 4,9 Prozent (Prognose vom...

We develop a methodology to study how the subprime crisis spills over to the real economy. Does it manifest itself primarily through reducing consumer demand or through tightening liquidity constraint on non-financial firms? Since most non-financial firms have much larger cash holding than before, they appear unlikely to face significant liquidity...

Debt and currency crises are closely interlinked through the government's intertemporal budget constraint. The default tax and the inflation/devaluation tax can be considered as alternative means of financing. Our empirical analysis finds that high-debt countries choose default rather than inflation/devaluation for financing, while a high m...

In a Tobin's q model with productivity and liquidity shocks, we study the mechanism through which strong creditor protection increases the level and lowers the volatility of stock market prices. There are two channels at work: (1) the Tobin's q value under a credit crunch regime increases with creditor protection; and, (2) the probability of a cred...

With every corporate scandal related to poor financial disclosure, attention is often focused on a government's role in requiring better disclosure. However, firms can voluntarily improve disclosure in response to market forces. This paper studies whether opportunities for corporate growth encourage voluntary transparency. To address potential endo...

We study a mechanism through which strong creditor protection affect positively the level, and negatively the volatility, of the aggregate stock market price. In a Tobin-q model with liquidity and productivity shocks, two channels are at work: (1) Creditor protection raises the stock value in a credit-constraint regime; (2) Creditor protection lowe...

We examine the choice between Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment at the level of the source country. Based on a theoretical model, we predict that (1) source countries with higher probability of aggregate liquidity crises export relatively more FPI than FDI, and (2) this effect strengthens as the source country’s capital m...

This paper analyzes the effect of creditor protection on the volatility of stock market returns. Our application of the Tobin’s q model predicts that credit protection reduces the probability of oscillations between binding and nonbinding states of the credit constraint, which result from liquidity crises and their aftermath. In this way creditor p...

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt m...

This paper addresses how creditor protection affects the volatility of stock market prices. Credit protection reduces the probability of oscillations between binding and non-binding states of the credit constraint; thereby lowering the rate of return variance. We test this prediction of a Tobin’s q model, by using cross-country panel regression on...

Foreign direct investors are more informed than foreign portfolio investors regarding changes in the prospects of their projects. This inside information, acquired through rigorous monitoring of management, enables foreign direct investors to manage their firms more efficiently. Having better information, however, comes at a cost. If projects can b...

This paper studies whether recent international transparency initiatives affect information accuracy and dispersion. I show that the impact of these initiatives is limited because public disclosure crowds out private investments in information. I first develop a theoretical model of the incentive to invest in information and the impact of public di...

We analyze how China's emergence as a destination for foreign direct investment is affecting the ability of other countries to attract FDI. We do so using an approach that accounts for the endogeneity of China's FDI. The impact turns out to vary by region. China's rapid growth and attractions as a destination for FDI also encourages FDI flows to ot...

This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political auton...

We establish an empirical regularity that a weak creditor protection index is associated with high stock price volatility. Using a standard Tobin Q model we demonstrate two distinct mechanisms that are responsible for increased volatility: credit guarantees and weak creditor protection that tightens credit constraints. In a panel of OECD and non OE...

We examine the impact of China on the exports and FDI receipts of other countries and ask whether there are grounds for “fear of China.” We find that China's emergence is having very different effects on different groups of countries. While low-wage exporters of labor-intensive consumer goods have reason to fear Chinese competition, technologically...

We analyze the impact of China's integration into the global economy on other countries, Asian countries in particular. We first examine how the growth of China's exports is affecting the exports of other countries in Asia and the rest of the world. Our innovation is to distinguish exports of capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediates and to...

The main result of Morris and Shin (2002) (restated in papers by Amato, Morris, and Shin (2002) and Amato and Shin (2003) and commented upon by Economist (2004)) has been presented and interpreted as an anti-transparency result: more public information can be bad. However, some scrutiny of the result shows that it is actually pro transparency: exce...

A positive productivity shock in the host country tends typically to increase the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country, through the standard marginal profitability effect. But, at the same time, such a shock may lower the likelihood of making any new FDI flows by the source country, through a total profitability effect, derived from...

We analyze the impact of China's growth on the exports of other Asian countries. Our innovation is to distinguish the increase in China's demand for imports from its increased penetration of export markets. Using the gravity model, we disaggregate among commodity types and account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports. We confirm the tendency for...

In contrast to the well-known twin currency and banking crises the literature has so far neglected a second type of twin crises, the simultaneous occurrence of currency and debt crises. The decision of a government to devalue and/or to default is closely interlinked through the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. In our empirical analysis...

Does a positive growth shock encourage a firm to improve its financial disclosure voluntarily? The answer helps to gauge the strength of market forces as a source of voluntary corporate governance reform. A challenge to empirical tests is that both firm growth and corporate disclosure are endogenous, and the causality can also go from better disclo...

Since the Mexican and Asian crises, there has been a proliferation of international initiatives, including an ambitious standard-setting agenda, to encourage banks, firms and governments to disclose more information about their financial affairs. This paper studies whether and how such transparency standards affect the information efficiency of mac...