Hugh Rudnick

Hugh Rudnick
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile | UC · Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica

Ph.D., U. of Manchester, UK

About

226
Publications
76,164
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4,004
Citations
Citations since 2017
21 Research Items
1337 Citations
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Introduction
Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Engineering at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. His research activities and publications focus in the market and economic aspects of the electrical power sector and other power-engineering subjects, with more than three hundred articles in indexed publications and international technical conferences.
Additional affiliations
July 1974 - present
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Publications

Publications (226)
Article
Decarbonization goals have created a technological revolution that has enabled renewables—in particular, solar and wind generation—to be in the center of most electricity markets all over the world. Renewables are inherently characterized by high production variability combined with limited predictability and controllability, which have created sig...
Article
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Large reductions in the cost of renewable energy technologies, particularly wind and solar, as well as various instruments used to achieve decarbonization targets (e.g., renewable mandates, renewable auctions, subsidies, and carbon pricing mechanisms) are driving the rapid growth of investments in these generation technologies worldwide.
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The world needs renewables, and renewables need transmission. This chapter reviews some of the key issues in transmission expansion for renewable generation, focusing on practical applications and examples from the Chilean experience. Chile has become one of the leading countries in renewable generation deployment in the region, but difficulties to...
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Although extreme events, mainly natural disasters and climate change-driven severe weather, are the result of naturally occurring processes, power system planners, regulators, and policy makers do not usually recognize them within network reliability standards. Instead, planners have historically designed the electric power infrastructure accountin...
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Following the trend observed in developed economies, various Latin American governments are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the power sector. In countries such as Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico, various regulatory policies have been issued to meet renewable-generation integration targets and satisfy the in...
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Countries around the world suffer the dramatic impact of earthquakes and other natural hazards reflected in casualties, infrastructure damage, service interruptions, and recovery costs. Although disaster exposure consciousness of electric power systems has increased in recent years, mitigation and adaptation actions, such as reserve scheduling and...
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Although extreme natural disasters have occurred all over the world throughout history, power systems planners do not usually recognize them within network investment methodologies. Moreover, planners had historically focused on reliability approaches based on average (rather than risk) performance indicators, undermining the effects of high impact...
Article
Distributed energy resources (DERs), including distributed renewable generation, have changed the operational, commercial, and regulatory dynamics of power systems. The growth of DERs has challenged the classic organization of power systems, which was generally based on centralized supply from larger plants, and there has been a broad, worldwide di...
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Questions on whether the power system of the future will be centralized or distributed occupy institutions and agents of the South American electricity industry as well as their peers in other regions of the world. A fundamental discussion concerns whether generation expansion will be dominated by large-scale power plants developed by traditional a...
Article
Due to their uncertain and variable nature, the large-scale integration of wind and solar power poses significant challenges to the generator scheduling process in power systems. To support this process, system operators require using repeatedly updated forecasts of the best quality for renewable power. Motivated by this, the present work aims to s...
Conference Paper
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We propose an optimization framework for designing resilient power grids against high impact low probability events (such as natural hazards). We use an Optimization via Simulation approach to solve this discrete decision problem, where the measure of resilience corresponds to the expected energy not supplied (EENS). The EENS assessment is undertak...
Conference Paper
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Historically, reliability analysis has ignored the occurrence of natural hazards such as those associated with extreme weather, flooding, earthquakes and tsunamis, which are becoming more and more relevant due to recent events. In this context, we present an assessment methodology to determine the resiliency levels of a distribution system exposed...
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The articles in this special section focus on the technologies that will support future energy storage systems. In modern power systems, we are transitioning to an increasing penetration of massive low-cost wind and solar generation, which will require indispensable system flexibility for balancing requirements to maintain system performance. The e...
Conference Paper
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Even though the concept of resilience is becoming widely used in electric power systems, there is no consensus on how to systematically model or quantify it. This article begins by proposing a classification for different types of system risk analyses, associating them to the concept of power systems resilience. Thereafter, it describes and applies...
Conference Paper
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Solving optimization problems in power systems planning often imposes a compromise between the accurate representation of the power system operation and the simplifications made in the mathematical methodologies used to find the optimal solution. Hence, classic heuristic algorithms go deep modelling operational details without having a clear messag...
Conference Paper
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Due to the stochastic nature of equipment failures, the accurate assessment of power system reliability is a complex task. Consequently, the optimal selection of new network infrastructure to improve reliability is even harder. In this paper, an optimization via simulation approach is proposed to find the optimal set of network assets to improve sy...
Article
Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which a...
Conference Paper
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The adequate performance of critical infrastructure such as transportation, telecommunications, healthcare, and electric power systems are essential to the resilience of communities after major earthquakes. However, assessing the seismic risk of networks is more complex than for individual structures since the performance of systems depend on sever...
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Integration of renewable generation can lead to both diversification of energy sources (which can improve the overall economic performance of the power sector) and cost increase due to the need for further resources to provide flexibility and thus secure operation from unpredictable, variable and asynchronous generation. In this context, we propose...
Article
Extreme weather hazards, as high-impact low-probability events, have catastrophic consequences on critical infrastructures. As a direct impact of climate change, the frequency and severity of some of these events is expected to increase in the future, which highlights the necessity of evaluating their impact and investigating how can systems withst...
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Power system transmission is at the core of modern wholesale electricity markets, allowing for competition to take place among generators. Thus, its adequate development is of utmost importance to ensure market efficiency with benefits to consumers. However, with the rapid incorporation of massive renewables into current power markets, new economic...
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Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP), a complex problem that is vital to ensure the proper functioning of restructured electricity markets, is clouded by uncertainties. Timely and cost-effective transmission expansion is necessary for providing secure and reliable electricity service to customers, enhancing competition, and ensuring market efficie...
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Transmission system expansion boomed in several South American countries in the 2000s and the early 2010s. Network capacity additions were required to cope with fast-growing electricity demand, prompted by average gross domestic product growth rates of around 5% per year in 2003?2008 and 3% per year in 2008-2013. Following a trend verified in most...
Article
ENERGY TRANSPORTATION COSTS TYPICALLY make up a quarter of consumers? electricity bills, and most of this amount (90% in the United Kingdom, 75% in Brazil and Spain, and 60% in India, for example) is due to energy transportation through the distribution network. This cost could escalate over the next few decades as distributed energy resources are...
Article
The articles in this special section focus on new markets, resource, and government policies that are affecting the global power markets. We are facing new paradigms in the worldwide power sector. These paradigms affect every aspect of the system, including the technologies that exist today coupled with environmental factors, renewables, demand res...
Article
Transmission planning has been broadly studied through the development of minimum cost models, adapting to the forecasts of generator and consumer requirements. This research considers that a single planner determines the transmission system expansion, while the generation expansion is decided by different independent market agents, and generation...
Article
The formulation of a Price Stabilization Fund to encourage the development of renewable projects is formulated. It seeks to reduce the risks associated with the volatility of the spot market prices, to facilitate access to project financing. This fund acts as a virtual trader, buying energy to developers of renewable projects, offering a fixed stab...
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This paper analyzes the levels of competition and the existence of market power in the Chilean electricity market using econometric models. Previous studies of this subject are based on simulations models, but this one is the first using information of market transactions. We study the contracts markups in two different situations. First, we analyz...
Article
South America is one of the most dynamic regions for the joint development of natural gas and electricity. Gas is abundant in the region, although unevenly distributed (see Figure 1), with significant new reserves projected in Brazil (in its Pre-Salt basins) and in Argentina (shale gas). Unconventional gas reserves in South America are estimated at...
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Climate change has become a major concern worldwide. Major scientific organizations now agree that it is taking place, that human activities are contributing significantly to it, and?most important?that climate change and the resulting global warming pose significant future risks to humanity. Increasing the average global temperature by even a degr...
Article
The implementation of a centralized transmission expansion plan is a complex task when several investors compete and bid to build a new transmission asset, as is the case now in Chile. The assessment of a transmission project depends on the number of competitors, where the project is subject to risks, such as delays, penalties, and cost overruns. T...
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Presents the guest editorial for this issue of the publication.
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According to the World Bank, there are about 1.2 billion people who do not have access to electricity, most of them in rural and remote areas in the developing world. Developed nations faced a similar challenge to improve electricity access at the turn of the last century. Electricity access, especially in rural areas, is therefore a global challen...
Article
Electricity contracts are long-term supply assurance mechanism still in critical conditions, encourage competition and mitigate the risk of price volatility. However, it is necessary to evaluate design alternatives that balance contracts market versus expectations of the producers and the planner and/or regulator of the system. In this paper an int...
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An optimization model that incorporates demand in the paradigm of smart grids and distributed generation is formulated. The objective is to transform the demand into an active agent that helps minimizing costs incurred by a distribution company for energy purchases and capacity payments, in a cost based marginal pricing scheme, also extrapolated to...
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Hydroelectricity was, for many years, one of the main ways to meet the new electricity needs of Latin American countries. This is evidenced by the presence of some of the larger plants worldwide and the high hydroelectric participation in all electricity matrices (Figure 1). Faced with growing prospects for future economic development, an underlyin...
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The articles in this special issues focus on the global impact of environmental change and climate change on society.
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Different regulatory frameworks have implemented competitive mechanisms to increase efficiency in transmission, a natural monopoly. Conflicts of interest and hidden costs make necessary to define methods to obtain an appropriate valuation of new transmission assets. This paper is the first one of a two-paper series and presents the fundamentals of...
Article
This paper is the second of a two-paper series and presents a model to assess and promote investment projects defined in a plan of expansion of the transmission. We propose a model that consists of three main elements: valuation of a project based on the design of a linear contract, a principal-agent model to assess the optimal effort of an agent,...
Conference Paper
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Demand Response (DR) programs are not a new concept; moreover, the key technologies for their implementation are already successful. However, DR applications in a worldwide context have been slow, especially in the industrial and commercial sector. Despite this, emerging countries have great opportunities to internalize these policies in their ener...
Conference Paper
This paper formulates and develops a peak demand control tool for electric systems within the framework of direct load control plans. This tool allows defining a load dispatch centre for central air conditioning systems in commercial buildings, hence allowing a measured control of peak demand for such pieces of equipment, which are known for their...
Conference Paper
Defining and making decisions about network investments has become a hard task in a competitive environment. This work defines a methodology to look for expansion alternatives in a transmission system. We propose a Transmission Expansion Game model that consists of four main elements: i) generating transmission expansion plan scenarios, ii) valuati...
Conference Paper
Transmission expansion in fast growing economies imposes severe challenges to electricity markets, given the need for planning and executing major midterm investments in an environment of uncertainty in load growth and generation expansion, coupled to the arrival of distributed renewable energy resources. This paper describes the approaches of two...
Article
The special issue editor chose as the central theme for this issue a long-term view of energy developments worldwide, reflecting the different conditions faced in different regions and focusing essentially on electricity supply. Experts were asked to review the electricity matrices of different regions and countries worldwide and predict future evo...
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In Latin America, primary energy demand is projected to grow on average by 1.7% per year and to reach 830 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency's 2011 World Energy Outlook. Demand for renewables in the power generation sector in the region will double over that period, reaching nearly 140 mtoe i...
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South American countries account for a small portion of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHE), as seen in Figure 1, which shows the percentage of worldwide GHE originating in Brazil (1.35%), Argentina (0.64%), Chile (0.24%), and Peru (0.13%). While the low level of GHE is partially due to the relatively low level of economic development of these na...
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A new auction scheme for supply contracts for the distribution companies was introduced in 2005 in the Chilean electricity regulation. It was intended to establish a contract market scheme that not only would stimulate supply development to ensure future electricity supply, but would also give certainty to investors. Through competitive bidding, it...
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The paper reports on the evolution of the planning function in the restructured electric markets in South America. It formulates the role of governments in infrastructure development and the required regulations in the energy field. It describes how the planning function is defined in the new electric regulations. It provides insights of the Chilea...
Article
Generation expansion planning plays a key role in the development of a power system. This paper contributes by developing a heuristic based on the results of a simulation model of the Central Interconnected System (SIC), which iteratively optimizes the number of expansion units necessary to accomplish certain assumptions and restrictions that a com...
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A proposal is made to analyze the problem of investments under uncertainty in electric power generation through the development of a methodology that uses real options and electric prices modeling. A trinomial tree numerical procedure is implemented using parameters estimated from a stochastic one-factor mean reversion model, integrating a system's...
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A method is presented that allows finding the market clearance prices within a hydrothermal power exchange market that incorporates network constraints. An analysis is made of the degree of market power exerted by the various agents. The Nash-Cournot equilibrium solution of the market is achieved using the Nikaido-Isoda function, which is derived f...
Conference Paper
Most fast developing countries have set targets to achieve a developed status in the near future. Nonetheless, emerging economies from developing countries must struggle to balance the need for energy but coping with environmental sustainability principles, both local and globally. Chile has set a voluntary target of capping CO2 emissions by 20 % b...
Conference Paper
The paper discusses the conflicts that arise between traditional incentive regulation, where consumers pay a fixed tariff to the distribution company for providing the wire service, and the arrival of distributed generation that alters this arrangement. The Chilean case, where a model company approach is used for tariff building is explained, and h...
Article
Electric energy transmission is essential for the operation of competitive energy markets. Transmission expansion planning has been defined as a complex combinatorial optimization problem. This work puts forward a description of the solution techniques and alternatives to implement the transmission system's expansion. A model that considers Multi-o...
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This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources – bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy – as well as their integration into present and future energy syst...
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The Security of Energy Supply has become a major concern worldwide, given modern society's strong dependence on its adequate delivery. Not only does the functioning of industry, transportation, and communication and computer systems depend on a continuous energy supply, but our complete style of living collapses when energy fails. Surges in fuel pr...
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In this paper its is discussed that the transmission and distribution facilities are more vulnerable to major earthquakes than the generation facilities. The design of the generation facilities usually adopts a higher design and building standards.
Conference Paper
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El crecimiento de la demanda de energía ha traído consigo un mayor consumo de fuentes de energía. A su vez, la alta incertidumbre respecto al suministro de fuentes de energía y la demanda de estas en el sector energético hace necesario realizar procesos de planeación energética que permitan identificar y evaluar la dinámica de estos. Consideramos c...
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This paper discusses future challenges in Latin-american countries associated with long-term contracting and auction design to ensure generation investment.
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An analysis is made of the impact of diverse regulatory mechanisms and financial incentives that aim at conciliating the interests of the regulating entity and distribution companies, while tending towards the implementation of energy efficiency policies on the power distribution sector. To assess the outcome of the power distributors on a given re...
Conference Paper
Security of energy supply is a main concern worldwide, given the strong dependence on society functioning on its adequate delivery. Surges in fuel prices, political conflicts, wars and natural disasters threaten directly energy supply, and countries look at ways to protect themselves. On February 2010 an 8.8 Richter scale earthquake hit the central...
Conference Paper
The Chilean Electricity Law introduced an obligation to power traders, from 2010 to 2014, to certify that at least 5% of the electricity traded comes from renewable sources. From 2015 onwards, the obligation will increase by 0.5% annually until 10% in 2024. Several challenges need to be addressed to permit efficient access for renewable energies. O...
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Renewable energy technologies are being welcomed in many countries worldwide because of their minor or nonimpact on the environment, as compared to the adverse impact of traditional fossil fuel generation alternatives. Although renewable energy in the form of hydroelectricity has been present since the dawn of electricity, the emphasis is presently...
Article
The need to diversify away from fossil fuel generation due to concerns over energy security, fuel price volatility, and the climate challenge is driving the deployment of nonconventional renewable (wind, small hydro, solar, tidal, geothermal, and in some cases waste) or green energy worldwide (in this article, these will all be termed renewable ene...
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The implementation of auctions of long-term electricity contracts is arising as an alternative to ensure generation investment and therefore achieve a reliable electricity supply. The aim is to reconcile generation adequacy with efficient energy purchase, correct risk allocation among investors and consumers, and the politico-economic environment o...
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Transmission has established itself as a natural monopoly, and as such, the prices and remaining access and operating conditions of the transmission system have been regulated. In the regulations existing before the electric sector reform there was a single planner that determined the generation and transmission expansion. However, each time more m...
Article
Electrical Engineering and Power Engineering are alive and well in Latin America. While IEEE and IEEE Power and Energy Society look for ways to entice high school students in the United States to go into engineering, the demand for engineering slots in Latin American universities grows every year, with the best students in those countries aiming fo...
Conference Paper
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The debate on which is the best incentive for transmission expansion is still active. Discussions center on economic mechanisms based on game theory to expand transmission. There is a mix of experiences and they vary in function of the level of interaction of market agents. Identifying the agents' strategies will allow a better understanding of the...
Conference Paper
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The Chilean electricity regulation introduced in 2008 an obligation to contract 10% of renewable energy, excluding large hydro, in the wholesale market. This paper assesses the impact of that obligation into the market, revises renewable projects that have been submitted for environmental assessment, the actual plants being built and the requiremen...
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The reforms carried out in various energy markets assign a central place to the transmission and hence this has created a dynamic research area, which is reported in this paper. There are various research topics, so it is required to identify the different areas and scientific advances in the field. Setting the types of assumptions used in the mode...
Conference Paper
This paper summarises main lessons in auctions of long term energy contracts based on the experiences of some countries in South America between 2005 and 2010.
Conference Paper
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Renewable energy has had a steady growth in power systems worldwide. The high uncertainty about what type of renewable technology meets technical and economic variables of the energy markets and what could be the participation in the energy matrix are important long term energy planning challenges that need to be identified and evaluated. This work...
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Access to abundant clean energy and access to water are probably two of the major challenges that humanity will face in the future. Societies are having trouble creating the conditions for adequate energy supply to take place and defining public policy to address the problem. Authors were invited to provide a sample of how energy public policies ar...
Conference Paper
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Electricity Energy markets do not operate in isolation. These markets are not just driven by load demand, but they are also impacted by fuel supply factors and are directed by regulators. This paper focuses on the interdependencies between the Electric Energy markets and the Natural Gas markets and the conditions and influences on both markets. Lo...
Conference Paper
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The connection of renewable energy distributed generators (DG) to radial feeders is assessed. Often, the long distance between renewable power sources and the transmission system, in addition to the small capacity of these generators, renders unprofitable the installation of private lines from the DG to that system. This situation motivates the DG...
Conference Paper
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Electricity transmission planning does not have a common solution worldwide, with most countries trusting on alternatives adapted to the local energy markets' regulatory regime. The fast-growing conditions of the Chilean energy market, driven by private agents, meant the need to introduce changes to the original 1982 regulatory framework, being tra...
Conference Paper
The adequacy problem in electricity market is becoming a very important issue as there is neither theoretical proof nor practical evidence of correct delivering of sufficient and timely generation capacity when it is needed in a real (imperfect) environment. In contrast, classical market design seems to fail when facing high demand growth and/or la...
Conference Paper
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Long term supply contracts (LTSC) auctions are being used worldwide as a tool to stimulate system expansion in electrical markets. The need to assess the strategic behavior of generation investors is herein addressed. The assumption made is that risk aversion considerations directly affect Genco's strategic behavior, and an ad-hoc static competitiv...
Conference Paper
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Under the need for anticipatory efficient investment in transmission, several problems arise at the regulation and incentives level; economies of scale justify carrying out larger initial transmission investments that existing generation and demand may be not willing to pay. This problem is increased with high demand growth where anticipatory inves...
Article
This paper is the first of two and presents a planning methodology for low-voltage distribution networks. Combined optimization of transformers and associated networks is performed, considering the street layout which connects the different consumers. In this first part, micro-optimization, the planning zone is divided into small zones, mini-zones,...