Hubert Gabrisch

The Vienna Institute Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

This essay analyses the relationship of two Great transformations: the first from socialism to capitalism, more specifically, in Eastern Europe in the 1990s, and the second from regulated to unregulated capitalism since the 1980s, with respect to their intellectual foundations and social results. Applying Karl Polanyi's double-movement concept, it...

Kazimierz Łaski (1921 in-2015) 2 belonged to the group of economists who particularly clearly and convincingly criticized the application of neoliberal doctrines to the transition of socialist countries into market economies. His analysis of the transition agendas was deeply rooted in the Kaleckian tradition of reasoning and brought him much respec...

This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested...

In contrast to 'normal' crises in capitalism, multiple, partly overlapping crises that may cumulate to a fateful maelstrom have hit the European Union (EU). Many, if not all of these crises are due to the global order of the contemporary capitalism. The political and economic system of the EU contains a considerable portion of neoliberal elements,...

Zusammenfassung: Neoliberalismus und autokratische Herrschaft In diesem Essay geht es um das Verhältnis neoliberaler Denkmuster zu autokratischer Herrschaft im Kapitalismus, in der der Faschismus eine extreme Form ist. Es wird deutlich, dass der Neoliberalismus Sympathien für autoritäre Herrschaft hat und die Demokratie lediglich als funktional im...

Publiziert unter dem Titel "Auf schwankendem historischen Grund", und mit einer kl,einen Aktualisierung in: Makroskop. Das Magazin für Wirtschaftspolitik Nr.08/2022. https://makroskop.eu/08-2022/auf-schwankendem-historischen-grund/ Viele Autoren suchen gegenwärtig nach Wegen zur Überwindung des neoliberalen Kapitalismus und seiner Hyper-Globalisie...

This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest-rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested...

Zusammenfassung Die EU befindet sich seit 2008 im Krisenmodus. Die Sehnsucht nach der alten Normalität ist das große politische Ziel, aber eine Rückkehr zum Status quo ante wäre nicht wirklich wünschenswert. Leider besitzt die europäische Politik kein Konzept für die Zukunft der EU nach der COVID-19-Pandemie. Das könnte sich als existenzielles Prob...

Die EU befindet sich seit 2008 im Krisenmodus. Die Sehnsucht nach der Normalität davor ist das große politische Ziel, aber eine Rückkehr zum Status quo ante wäre nicht wirklich wünschenswert. Leider besitzt die europäische Politik kein Konzept für die Zukunft der Union besitzt, wenn die Covid-Pandemie einmal vorbei sein sollte. Das könnte sich als...

This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor–Verdoorn (KV) law. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The claim is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of conve...

This essay analyses the relationship of two ‘Great Transformations’: the first from socialism to capitalism, more specifically in Eastern Europe in the 1990s, and the second from regulated to unregulated capitalism in the global economy since the 1980s, with respect to their common origins, elements and social results. Applying Karl Polanyi’s doubl...

Kazimierz Łaski belonged to the group of economists who particularly clearly and convincingly criticized the application of neoliberal doctrines to the transition of socialist countries into market economies. His analysis of the transition agendas was deeply rooted in the Kaleckian tradition of reasoning and brought him much respect but also fierce...

This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor-Verdoorn (KV) law. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The claim is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of conve...

Undoubtedly, there is much economic success of Central European countries since their accession to the EU. This observation holds above all for Poland, which even in the financial crisis of 2008/2009 did not suffer from a decline in its GDP. The success can also be expressed in terms of income convergence with the euro area, usually measured as the...

This text updates former versions in the project ‘Modern finance and effective demand’ at the researchgate-platform. It summarizes them, and includes extensions and some corrections

This essay investigates the necessity of and options for a central fiscal risk-sharing capacity in the Euro area. How can these aims be reconciled with the member countries’ responsibility for sound fiscal policy that also considers constitutional sovereignty, institutional efficiency and economic effectiveness? As a result, such a capacity can be...

The essay provides (i) an overview on risk-sharing in EA, discusses (ii) why public risk-sharing might be necessary to complete private risk-sharing, and examines(iii) some solutions for a central fiscal capacity that are not in conflict with the unique character of the EA as a confederation of sovereign states.

This study measures the degree of de-facto monetary policy independence of a national central bank. This measurement might allow a central bank to assess the gains and losses in sovereign affecting the national money market when the country’s own currency is given up and a common one is adopted. The study applies a multivariate GARCH-model to the m...

Extant literature nearly exclusively explains the current account imbalances in the euro area by blaming wage policy. Mainstream economics considers wage policy as responsible for both trade imbalances and the split between debtor and creditor countries. In contrast, this article argues that cross-border capital flows come first, and affect aggrega...

Dieser Beitrag diskutiert den Vorschlag der EU-Kommission für eine Kapitalmarktunion. Dieser Vorschlag basiert auf der Idee unbegrenzter Risikoteilung durch Finanzmarktintegration, so dass dadurch asymmetrische Schocks in einem nicht-optimalen Währungsraum ohne fiskalische Transfers abgefedert werden können. Risikoteilung soll insbesondere durch da...

Vor der Finanzkrise hatte die Liberalisierung der Kapitalmärkte zur Aufhebung der traditionellen Trennung zwischen bank- und marktbasierter Finanzierung geführt. Dadurch sind hybride Kapitalmärkte entstanden, bei denen die Verflechtung zwischen den einzelnen Marktsegmenten und Instituten die Risikoteilung verbessert. Das Vorhaben der EU-Kommission...

This is the slightly updated English version of the chapter " Monetäre Transformation " published in " Handbuch Transformationsforschung " edited by Kollmorgen, R., Merkel, W. Wagener, H.-J. (eds.):.Springer: Wiesbaden 2015, 635-641. Please, cite this German edition.

Presentation; it includes a brief formal presentation of how expected capital gains attract foreign finanancial flows, which led to interest rate convergence, changes in current account and competitiveness positions in the euro area. ***Please, note that the presentation transformed into a paper "Explaining trade imbalances in the euro area: Liquid...

The nearly exclusive explanation for current account imbalances in the euro area blames real economy differences between countries, prominently the competitiveness of the participating states. This essay questions the common opinion that wage policy is crucial for rebalancing the European economies. This essay attempts to unfurl the real economy pr...

(Revised version from 12th October 2015). Den offiziellen Dokumenten der EU zufolge werden Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte in der Währungsunion überwiegend auf Unterschiede in der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Teilnehmerstaaten zurückgeführt, und hier auf die Lohnstückkosten. Diese Studie hat einen anderen Ursachenkomplex zum Gegenstand, und zwar grenzü...

This article applies an adjusted growth diagnostic approach to identify the currently most binding constraint on financing growth in the West Balkan countries. Since this group of economies faces both structural and systemic transformation problems, the original supply-side approach might not be sufficient to detect the most binding constraint. The...

The Euro Plus Pact was approved by the European Union in March 2011. The Pact stipulates various measures to strengthen competitiveness with with the ultimate aim of preventing the accumulation of unsustainable external imbalances. This article uses Granger causality tests to assess the short-term linkages between changes in the relative unit labou...

This study measures the degree of de-facto monetary policy independence of a national central bank. This measurement might allow a central bank to assess the gains and losses in sovereign affecting the national money market when the country’s own currency is given up and a common one is adopted. The study applies a multivariate GARCH-model to the m...

Conference paper Rome 25-27 June 2015 (1st World Congress of Comparative Economics)

Ein Kernelement der monetären Transformation einer sozialistischen Planwirtschaft ist die Herstellung jener Funktionen, die Geld in einer Marktwirtschaft ausübt. Diese Monetarisierung bestimmt die Effektivität und Effizienz aller anderen Reformbereiche, beispielsweise die Privatisierung, also den Verkauf von realem Kapital auf Vermögensmärkten. Die...

This paper uses Granger causality tests to assess the linkages between changes in the real exchange rate and net capital inflows using the example of Western Balkan countries, which have suffered from low competitiveness and external imbalances for many years. The real exchange rate is a measure of a country's price competitiveness, and the paper u...

This Essay is in German and French language. Here are the abstracts: IN GERMAN: Die aktuelle Krise der Europäischen Union ist vor allem eine Krise ih res am stärksten integrierten Teils – der Währungsunion. Auf sie konzentriert sich die Diskussion über die ökonomische Steuerung (governance) der EU, und zwar über eine Auflösung bzw. Verkleinerung ode...

Die aktuelle Krise der Europäischen Union ist vor allem eine Krise ihres am weitestgehend integrierten Teils – der Währungsunion. Auf sie konzentriert sich die Diskussion über die ökonomische Steuerung (governance) der EU, und zwar über eine Auflösung bzw. Verkleinerung oder Reform der Währungsunion, und jede dieser Lösungen wird die Economic Gover...

This study applies a GARCH-in-Mean model to the money market rates of seven members of the European Union (EU) which have not yet adopted the common currency – Sweden, Denmark, the UK, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The aim is to evaluate whether there is a need for local monetary policy judged by the existence of persistent and...

The Euro Plus Pact was approved by 23 EU countries in March 2011. The Pact stipulates a range of quantitative targets meant to strengthen competitiveness and convergence with the ultimate aim of preventing the accumulation of unsustainable financial imbalances. This paper uses Granger causality tests and vector autoregressive models to assess the s...

The study applies an adjusted growth diagnostic approach to identify the actual binding constraint on financing growth in the West Balkan countries. This group of economies includes combined structural and systemic transformation problems. The results of the analysis indicate that the binding constraint on credit and investment growth in the region...

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy...

I argue that each currency needs a sovereign for stabilizing financial markets and the real economy. Failing this, a currency union would sooner or later decay. Therefore, I explain the ongoing crisis of the Euro area by the lack of a sovereign. The theory of optimum currency does not equip us with sufficient knowledge for overcoming the crisis for...

Currency without a sovereign: on the causes of the Euro crisis and its overcoming Abstract I argue that each currency needs a sovereign for stabilizing financial markets and the real economy. Failing this, a currency union would sooner or later decay. Therefore, I explain the ongoing crisis of the Euro area by the lack of a sovereign. The theory o...

The Euro Plus Pact was approved by 23 EU countries in March 2011. The Pact stipulates a range of quantitative targets meant to strengthen competitiveness and convergence with the ultimate aim of preventing unsustainable financial imbalances from accumulating. This paper uses Granger causality tests and VAR models to assess the direction of causalit...

This study examines the key drivers of sovereign default risk in five euro area periphery countries and three euro-candidates that are currently pursuing independent monetary policies. We argue that the recent proliferation of sovereign risk premiums stems from both domestic and international sources. We focus on contagion effects of external finan...

The construction of the European Monetary Union and the policies followed since 1999 is responsible for the emerging deep imbalances among the member countries that made some countries vulnerable against the external shock of the global financial crisis. Since then, reforms of the governance system have been seen as necessary, but the design of ref...

This paper discusses the need for macroeconomic policy coordination in E(M)U. Coordination of national policies with cross-border effects does not exist on the macroeconomic level, although requested by the EU Treaty. The need for coordination stems from current account imbalances, which origin in market-induced capital flows destabilizing the real...

This article aims to explain the increasing deficits in the trade and current account balances of three post-transition countries-Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland-by testing two hypotheses: the twin deficit hypothesis and increasing import intensity of export production. The method uses co-integration and related techniques to test for a long-ru...

This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that...

We test the hypothesis of an endogenous currency area for the labor market of the Euro area: has the introduction of a common currency caused wage dynamics to become more synchronized and to be able to cushion for asymmetric shocks? Trade intensity, sector specialization and financial integration are tested for being the driving forces for the endo...

This study deals with the question whether the central banks of Sweden, Denmark and the UK can really influence short-term money markets and thus, would lose this influence in case of Euro adoption. We use a GARCH-M-GED model with daily money market rates. The model reveals the co-movement between the Euribor and the shortterm interest rates in the...

We argue that monetary policies in euro-candidate countries should also aim at mitigating excessive instability of the key target and instrument variables of monetary policy during turbulent market periods. Our empirical tests show a significant degree of leptokurtosis, thus prevalence of tail-risks, in the conditional volatility series of such var...

We argue that a "static" specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not conducive to assessing stability of financial systems in euro-candidate countries. Instead, we advocate a dynamic approach to assessing interest rate convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accord...

Our study tries to find out whether wage dynamics between Euro member countries became more synchronized through the adoption of the common currency. We calculate bivarate correlation coefficients of wage and wage cost dynamics and run a model of endogenously induced changes of coefficients, which are explained by other variables being also endogen...

This paper tests a neo-Heckscher-Ohlin versus a neo-Ricardian framework for explaining vertical intra-industry trade. The study applies panel techniques with instrument variables to analyse trade between old EU and 10 Central-East European countries in their post-transition period. Results show country-pair fixed effects to be of high relevance for...

The study advocates a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, the study tests empirically volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the euro zone yields during the January 2, 2001 to Janua...

We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the tenyear sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001 untill January 22, 2009 sa...

The global financial crisis reached the Central and Eastern European region. Fears of a recession are spreading among investors in Russia and the Ukraine due to the heavy decline of oil and steel prices and provoked a first wave of short-term capital withdrawals. The export sector of all countries in the region is affected by weakening global deman...

The long lasting, but externally financed boom in the new EU countries has collapsed under the impacts of the global financial crisis. The countries’ fiscal and monetary authorizes do not seem to be able to effectively resist – a deep crisis is under way. The situation is particularly dramatic in the Baltic countries, where the hands of the monetar...

Diese Studie untersucht die Bedeutung der Realkapitalbildung für die Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Deutschland. Augenscheinlich fällt ein Rückgang der Investitionsquote mit dem Rückgang des Arbeitsvolumens der Arbeitnehmer zusammen. Die Einkommens- und Kapazitätseffekte der Bruttoanlageinvestitionen werden mit einem Fehlerkorrekturmodell für den Zei...

The paper analyses vertical intra-industry trade between EU and Accession countries, and concentrates on two country-specific determinants: Differences in personal income distribution and in technology. Both determinants have a strong link to national policies and to cross-border investment flows. In contrast to most other studies, income distribut...

Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, which may be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or may be caused by high labour market rigidity or aggregate demand that is too weak. This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and outpu...

Chapter 4 addresses the relationship between ownership transformation and the establishment of competition. Competition is the driving force of an innovative market economy with private ownership. But privatization — the core of ownership transformation — is a necessary policy to generate a competitive private sector, but it is far from being suffi...

Chapter 6 distinguishes between the benefits of an open economy and the specific risks of opening the economy. A first challenge to transition policy is how to mitigate the shocks on production stemming from getting distorted price relations right after the removal of trade controls and selective protection. The chapter explains why, and how, outpu...

Chapter 2 presents two different intellectual concepts of transition. On the surface, these concepts were initially identified with the debate about ‘shock-therapy versus gradualism’. However, the differences were deeper and rooted in different schools of economic thought. Behind the shock approach we find the so-called ‘Washington Consensus’, whic...

Chapter 5 provides an overview on the impact of transition on labour markets. It starts with some indicators describing the liberalization of labour relations. It then directs the focus on to the unemployment problem during and, possibly after, transition. The chapter introduces a model that describes the conditions for an initial rise and later fa...

The treaty on the economic, currency, and social union with the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) of 1 July 1990 implanted the West German economic and social constitution almost instantly in the GDR. The economic union imposed the constitution that ruled the West German market economy including the common law of the European Union on a so...

Chapter 8 looks at the challenges for transformation concerning membership of the European Union. We concentrate on competition policy as the core of a competitive transformation and membership within the European Monetary Union (EMU) and its fiscal requirements. The chapter concludes with an exploration of fiscal transparency in the biggest new EU...

A relatively even distribution of income was one of the classic attributes of the socialist system. This changed dramatically during the period of transformation but stabilized in CEE to almost continental European levels. Not so in Russia, where inequality levels remained significant. Chapter 7 is structured as follows. We first summarize the stan...

Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the characteristics of economic transition. We explain transition as a fundamental change in institutions, and show that progress in transition has been made above all in changing formal institutions; the transformation of informal institutions, however, still lags behind. Corruption, little interpersonal trust an...

Chapter 3 stresses the importance of well-functioning financial systems for economic development in a market economy. It is no exaggeration to claim that the transition countries had to build up their financial institutions from scratch. In the planned economy money had no economic function and had to be re-established in the process of transformat...

In The Plausible World, the intersections of literature and cartography enable readers to understand that place is anything but purely geographic: a plausible world is created as a strategy to fill the void. Innovative in his approach, Westphal challenges the view that perceptions and representations of space are stable or straightforward. © Hubert...

Im ersten Jahr ihrer Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union kam es zu starken Nettokapitalzuflüssen in die neuen Mitgliedsländer Mittelosteuropas. Allein die Portfolioinvestitionen nahmen um 18 Mrd. USDollar zu, während sich der Zustrom an Direktinvestitionen verlangsamte. Die Folge der Zuflüsse war eine nominale und reale Aufwertung der Währunge...

The aim of this paper is to provide a measure of the relationship between employment and output growth in Italy and to illustrate its dynamics across a relatively extended time-span (1970-2004). Given the well-known and persisting regional differences of labour market performance and dynamics in Italy, our analytical approach favours the exploitati...

Wachstum und Beschäftigung fallen in Ostdeutschland weiterhin unbefriedigend aus. Durch die Osterweiterung der EU wird der Wettbewerb für ostdeutsche Produzenten und Standorte intensiver werden. Langfristig werden Fördermittel wegfallen, sodass Wettbewerbsfaktoren wie Arbeitskosten und Innovationsaktivitäten auf Industrie- und Unternehmensebene an...

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalisation unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and...

Methods measuring capital flight unfortunately yield a too wide band of estimates. A striking example is provided by estimates of capital flight from Russia. This study introduces unit-values analysis as a new and, hopefully, more robust tool in order to estimate trade-related capital flight. Trade-related capital flight prevails when capital accou...

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Das Wechselkurssystem der meisten Beitrittskandidaten entspricht zur Zeit nicht dem Wechselkursmechanismus der EU (WKM II). Die EU sieht auch die Currency boards (Estland, Litauen und Bulgarien) als nicht akzeptable Substitute an. Gleichwohl ist die Aufrechterhaltung dieser Systeme auch nach Beitritt zum WKM II unter bestimmten formalen Voraussetzu...

Trade between the European Union (EU) and the Transition Economies (TE) is increasingly characterised by intra-industry trade. The decomposition of intra-industry trade into horizontal and vertical shares reveals predominantly vertical structures with decisively more quality advantages for the EU and less quality advantages for TE countries wheneve...

Trade between the European Union (EU) and the Transition Economies (TE) is increas-ingly characterised by intra-industry trade. The decomposition of intra-industry trade in-to horizontal and vertical shares reveals predominantly vertical structures with decisively more quality advantages for the EU and less quality advantages for TE countries whene...

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs i...

The steep increase of oil prices, general threats rooting from Iran’s nuclear program, and doubts about the future policy of important central banks recently caused more uncertainties of investors on international financial markets. This explains the higher volatility and the fall of indices on stock markets including those of some Central and East...

Währungskrisen verursachen neben hohen realwirtschaftlichen Kosten auch politische und wirtschaftliche Instabilitäten. Besondere Bedeutung hat die Vermeidung von Währungskrisen für diejenigen mittel- und osteuropäischen Staaten, die eine Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union anstreben. Wie hoch ist die Krisenanfälligkeit der Transformationslände...

Russia’s economy recovered relatively quickly after the financial- and currency crisis from August 1998. External conditions were supportive, among them the elimination of overvaluation of the Ruble, the increase of the oil price, and the recovery of the world economy. Domestic conditions improved, too. Most economic indicators signaled a significa...

Die russische Währungskrise vom August 1998 ist der vorläufige Höhepunkt einer sich seit November 1997 verstärkenden Krise der Staatsfinanzen und des Bankensektors. Die Krise entstand durch eine zunehmende kurzfristige Defizitfinanzierung und Spekulationsgeschäfte der Banken. Gefördert wurde beides durch die Geldpolitik der Zentralbank, die nicht n...

Die Erwartungen der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder an die eigene Beitrittsfähigkeit sind zu hoch. Die Anpassungslasten sind für sie so groß, daß sie es auch bis zum Jahr 2002 kaum geschafft haben werden, dem Wettbewerbsdruck auf dem gemeinsamen Markt standzuhalten. Somit ist es aus ökonomischer Sicht wenig sinnvoll, den Beginn der Beitrittsverh...