Hernando Zuleta

Los Andes University (Colombia) | UNIANDES · Faculty of Economics

We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares...

Presentation made at the University of Valencia. Seminar Department of Economic Structure.

We explore the relationship between union membership rates and labor shares using panel data on 35 industries, spanning the entire US economy, for the years 1983–2005. For the full sample, a standard deviation increase in union membership rates is associated with an increase in an industry’s labor share of about 10%. Starting from the mean labor sh...

We model the strategy of an insurgent group that follows a pattern of prolonged popular war but negotiates with the government. The main results of the model are the following: (i) If the marginal probability of signing a peace treaty is significantly low when the guerrilla invests little on non-violent strategies, then they will continue to fight...

Factor shares vary over time and across countries, so incorporating variable factor shares into growth and development accounting is both warranted and desirable. However, variable factor shares create an index number problem in analyses that rely on our most commonly used production functions. We show that in the presence of competitive factor mar...

We present a theoretical model in order to study the causal relation between commodity prices and poverty traps. Using an overlapping generation’s framework where savings, education, fertility and child labor are endogenous variables we find four central results: 1) High commodity prices may generate poverty traps. 2) Given commodity prices, high l...

We consider a neoclassical growth model where labor collectively chooses labor share to maximize its steady-state wage rate. In the basic two-factor model, labor maximizes the steadystate wage rate by setting labor share equal to the elasticity of output with respect to labor. This is precisely the competitive outcome. Only when we consider the mod...

I present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor saving and model the choice of technologies in an Overlapping Generations framework. Markets are competitive and factor prices are determined by marginal productivity of factors; therefore, the income share of reproducible factors increases with the stage of development. Beyond the s...

Variation in factor shares, extensively documented in recent years, implies that standard growth accounting exercises are plagued by measurement issues. First, the standard assumption of constant shares generates a bias in the estimation of the contribution of factors to economic growth. Second, the effect that changes in factor shares have on outp...

I present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor saving and model the choice of technologies in an Overlapping Generations framework. Markets are competitive and factor prices are determined by marginal productivity of factors; therefore, the income share of reproducible factors increases with the stage of development. Beyond the s...

We model conflict between two agents in which each one has two possible strategies: cease-fire or rejection of the truce. We use the concept of pre-donations, namely, a redefinition of the game in which each agent commits to transfer a share of its output to the other agent (Sertel, 1991). Conditions are established under which a system of pre-dona...

Krueger (199916. Krueger , A. B. 1999. Measuring labor's share. American Economic Review, 89: 45–51. [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®]View all references) provides a measure of ‘raw’ labour's share for the US post-war economy based on Mincerian regressions. He finds that raw labour's share fell by over 8 percentage points from 1959 to 1996. We provid...

Krueger (1999) provides a measure of ‘raw’ labour's share for the US post-war economy based on Mincerian regressions. He finds that raw labour's share fell by over 8 percentage points from 1959 to 1996. We provide an alternative estimate using direct observations on the wage rates of raw labour units, i.e. those with 8 years of education or less; a...

The industrial revolution and the subsequent industrialization of the economies occurred first in temperate regions. We argue that this and the associated positive correlation between absolute latitude and GDP per capita are due to the fact that countries located far from the equator suffered more profound seasonal fluctuations in climate, namely s...

We modify the standard trade model introducing the possibility of biased technological changes. This model help to explain the falling labor shares as well as the mixed changes in skill premium in developing countries after trade liberalization takes place.

There is a significant positive statistical connection between GDP per capita and the satisfaction rate. However, Bulgaria, being a middle income economy, is one of the saddest places on Earth. We try to identify possible reasons for this phenomenon and we put forward some policy implications. The evolution of fertility rates, income per capita and...

We consider a decentralized version of the neoclassical growth model where labor share is chosen by workers to maximize their long run (permanent) wages. In this framework, if the labor share increases relative to the competitive share, workers capture a larger share of a smaller total income in the steady-state. This is because the incentives to i...

Recent evidence shows that factor shares are not constant. Consequently, growth accounting exercises rely on a false assumption and a measurement problem arises. We propose an empirical methodology to solve the measurement issue and estimate TFP growth. Article Outline

The relative stability of aggregate labor share constitutes one of the great macroeconomic ratios. However, relative stability at the aggregate level masks the unbalanced nature of sectoral labor shares. We present a two-sector (manufacturing and services) model with induced innovation that can rationalize these phenomena as well as several other e...

We explore the relationship between union density and labor’s shares using panel data on 35 industries, spanning the entire US economy, for the years 1983 through 2005. For the full sample, a standard deviation increase in union density (membership or coverage rates) is associated with an increase in an industry’s labor’s share of about one and a h...

We present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor-saving and model the choice of technologies in an Overlapping Generations Model where any technology can be adopted paying a cost. Markets are competitive and marginal productivity of factors determines factor prices; therefore, the income share of reproducible factors increases wit...

We provide three basic elements for the analysis of the economic growth in Colombia: In order to get the factor shares, we separate produced physical capital income from natural capital income and raw labor income from the human capital income. We find that the share of reproducible factors has an increasing trend (as suggested by biased innovation...

We use annual data on capital’s share and relative factor prices from 35 US industries from 1960 to 2005 to test the induced innovation hypothesis. We derive, from a production function framework, testable implications for the effect of contemporaneous and lagged factor price ratios on capital’s share of production. The predicted effect is positive...

Measuring labor's share of an economy's aggregate income seems straightforward, at least in principle. Count up wage and salary income, along with the value of benefits provided to employees, and divide it by total income. However, one fundamental concept of labor's share in macroeconomic theory is not the amount of aggregate income paid out to lab...

In this paper, I present empirical evidence for …ve European countries (Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy) and the Euro-zone on whether monetary policy shocks produce di¤erent e¤ects on real output growth depending on the phase of the business cycle that the economy is undergoing (the socalled ‘state’ asymmetry). To do so, I apply a multivariate...

We present an Overlapping Generations Model with two final goods: tradable goods are produced with a standard Cobb-Douglas production function and non-tradable goods are produced with linear production function where the only factor is labor. We maintain the fundamental assumption of factor mobility between sectors so model is consistent with the B...

In many countries governments are helpless to prevent appropriation, whatever the degree of protection promised by the law. In this context, we use a simple model where workers can either work peacefully or join a guerrilla movement that expropriates entrepreneurs. We find one low-income, low-wage equilibrium with guerrilla activity and one peacefu...

Recent evidence show that factor shares, if properly measured, are far from constant. Moreover, the shares of natural resources and raw labor seem to be negatively correlated with income per capita while the share of human and physical capital is positively correlated with income per capita. Now, if factor shares are not constant then (i) growth ac...

In general, empirical studies on economics rely on the assumption of constant capital share of income both at the aggregate level and at the sector level. However, there is no empirical evidence supporting the constancy of capital share at the sector level. In this paper, using Colombian data, we measure capital share for 48 sectors during the peri...

Este trabajo aporta dos elementos b�sicos para el an�lisis del crecimiento econ�mico en Colombia: En primer lugar, para el c�lculo de la participaci�n de los factores en el producto, se separa el ingreso de capital f�sico del ingreso de capital natural y el ingreso del trabajo b�sico del ingreso de capital humano. Con esta metodolog�a se comprueba...

We study economic conflicts using a game theoretical approach. We model a conflict between two agents where each one has two possible strategies: cease-fire or neglect the truce. Under this setting, we use the concept of pre-donations, namely, a redefinition of the game where agents commit to transfer a share of their output to the other agent (Ser...

We provide two basic elements for the analysis of the economic growth in Colombia: In order to get the factor shares, we separate produced physical capital income from natural capital income and raw labor income from the human capital income. We find that the share of reproducible factors has an increasing trend (as suggested by biased innovations...

Measuring labor's share of an economy's aggregate income seems straightforward, at least in principle. Count up wage and salary income, along with the value of benefits provided to employees, and divide it by total income. However, one fundamental concept of labor's share in macroeconomic theory is not the amount of aggregate income paid out to lab...

Se formula y resuelve un modelo de cambio tecnológico ahorrador de factores de producción que considera tres factores: capital, trabajo y energía. El modelo cuenta con características específicas con respecto a la interacción entre la energía (la cual, de acuerdo a su fuente puede ser renovable y no renovable) y el capital. Una vez esta economía se...

The industrial revolution and the subsequent industrialization of the economies occurred fi…rst in temperate regions. We argue that this and the associated positive correlation between absolute latitude and GDP per capita is due to the fact that countries located far from the equator suffered more profound seasonal ‡fluctuations in climate, namely...

We present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor saving. Technologies can be changed paying a cost and technological change takes place only if the benefits are larger than the costs. Since the gains derived from factor saving innovations depend on factor abundance, biased innovations respond to changes in factors' supply. Therefo...

In this study, we propose an explanation for why labor and capital shares do not seem to have a trend: an increasing trend in physical capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in land share. Similarly, an increasing trend in human capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in raw labor share. We also find empirical support for the...

We explain why economic conflicts and illegal business often take place in poor countries. We use the concept of subsistence level of consumption (d) and assume a regular concave utility function for consumption levels higher than d. For consumption levels lower than d utility is constant and equal to zero. Under this framework poor agents are risk...

Para evaluar el impacto de un Tratado de libre comercio (TLC) entre Colombia y Estados Unidos, describimos las características de la economía colombiana, enfatizando en sus patrones y perspectivas de comercio, e identificando los sectores y regiones más sensibles a la firma de un TLC. Afirmamos que los efectos de un acuerdo bilateral entre Colombia...

**Para evaluar el impacto de un Tratado de libre comercio (TLC) entre Colombia y Estados Unidos, describimos las características de la economía colombiana, enfatizando en sus patrones y perspectivas de comercio, e identificando los sectores y regiones más sensibles a la firma de un TLC. Afirmamos que los efectos de un acuerdo bilateral entre Colomb...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the effect that weak enforceability of property rights has on the human resource practices of firms operating in hostile business environment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper questions the role of the state as the only provider of stability and guarantor of property rights and hypothesizes t...

We consider a model of factor saving innovations and study the effects of exogenous changes in labor supply. In a biased innovations setting, as economies accumulate capital, labor becomes relatively scarce and expensive. As a consequence, incentives for labor saving and capital using innovations appear. By the same token, exogenous changes in labo...

The common assumptions that labor income share does not change over time or across countries and that factor income shares are equal to the elasticity of output with respect to factors have had important implications for economic theory. However, there are several theoretical reasons for why the elasticity of output with respect to reproducible fac...

This paper presents an endogenous growth model where the aggre- gate production function is a Leontief (1941) and long run growth is completely explained through biased technological change. Under this framework we get two results: (i) if the income share of reproducible factors is high enough, in the long run the economy presents a positive balanc...

The relative stability of aggregate labor's share constitutes one of the great macroeconomic ratios. However, relative stability at the aggregate level masks the unbalanced nature of industry labor's shares - the Kuznets stylized facts underlie those of Kaldor. We present a two-sector - one labor-only and the other using both capital and labor - mo...

En este artículo se presenta un modelo de crecimiento donde la función de producción es del tipo Leontief (1941), la tasa de ahorro es endógena y el crecimiento de largo plazo es explicado por cambio tecnológico sesgado. En este entorno se obtienen dos resultados: (i) si la participación de los factores reproducibles en el producto es suficientemen...

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips stock price has been predicted using the difference between core and headline CPI in the United States. Linear trends in the CPI difference allow accurate prediction of the prices at a five to ten-year horizon.

Firms’ compensation practices affect the protection of investors’ interests and the degree of economic inequality by changing the stakes of engaging in appropriation activities versus respecting the status quo. We use a general equilibrium model where workers can either work peacefully or join a guerrilla movement that expropriates entrepreneurs. I...

El objetivo de este trabajo es contribuir a identificar el efecto de las remesas que envían los emigrantes a sus comunidades de origen en México. Del mismo modo, se estudia el efecto que la participación de la mujer tiene en este proceso. La fuente de información es el Consejo Nacional de Población de México CONAPO y contiene variables a nivel esta...

We study the relationship between remittances and development from an empirical point of view. We also identify the role that non-migrant women play in this relationship. The source of information is Consejo Nacional de Población de México CONAPO. The data base contains Human Development Index, migratory intensity and remittances for the 2443 Mexic...

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips stock price has been predicted using the difference between core and headline CPI in the United States. Linear trends in the CPI difference allow accurate prediction of the prices at a five to ten-year horizon.

El objetivo de este trabajo es contribuir a identificar el efecto de las remesas que env�an los emigrantes a sus comunidades de origen en M�xico. Del mismo modo, se estudia el efecto que la participaci�n de la mujer tiene en este proceso. La fuente de informaci�n es el Consejo Nacional de Poblaci�n de M�xico CONAPO y contiene variables a nivel esta...

A vast and often confusing economics literature relates competition to investment in innovation. Following Joseph Schumpeter, one view is that monopoly and large scale promote investment in research and development by allowing a firm to capture a larger fraction of its benefits and by providing a more stable platform for a firm to invest in R&D. Ot...

In order to assess the impact of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Colombia and the United States of America, we describe the characteristics of the Colombian economy emphasizing its trade patterns and perspectives and identifying the sectors and regions that are likely to be the most sensitive to a FTA. We argue that the effects of a bilateral...

Este trabajo aporta tres elementos básicos para el análisis del crecimiento económico en Colombia. En primer lugar, para el cálculo de la participación de los factores en el producto, se separa el ingreso de capital físico del ingreso de capital natural, y el ingreso del trabajo básico del ingreso de capital humano. Con esta metodología se comprueb...

In this paper I present a dynamic model that provides an explanation for why violent movements arise, why armed conflicts can persist over long periods, why guerrilla movements operate in rich places, and whether or not redistributive policies can eliminate the incentives for guerrilla movements. I analyze these questions using a model of competiti...

This note presents a simple extension of the seminal Romer (1990, Journal of Political Economy 98(2), 71â102) paper. Allowing for elasticity of substitution between labor and capital to be different from one (CES production function instead of CobbâDouglas), the following results are obtained. (a) The existence of a scale effect depends on the elas...

The common assumptions that labor income share does not change over time and that factor income shares are equal to the elasticity of output with respect to factors have had important implications for economic theory. However, there are various theoretical reasons why the elasticity of output with respect to reproducible factors should be correlate...

La economía colombiana ha venido experimentando un fuerte proceso de apreciación real en lo que va corrido de los noventas. En efecto, tomando un índice del tipo de cambio real definido como la relación entre el precio de los bienes transables y el precio de los bienes no transables se evidencia que el tipo de cambio colombiano se apreció un 23.45%...

Desde finales de los 80 el sistema financiero colombiano ha experimentado cambios sensibles. En efecto, la liberalización financiera, el fortalecimiento de la regulación prudencial, la conversión de un número importante de sociedades en establecimientos de crédito, el aumento en los requisitos de capital, etc. han determinado un cambio de perfil en...

Desde la propuesta de Schumpeter (1911)(1)de que los servicios prestados por el sistema financiero son importantes para la promoción de la innovación tecnológica y el crecimiento económico(2). ha existido un relativo consenso entre los economistas en el sentido de que el desarrollo del sistema es importante para el crecimiento de largo plazo. A pes...

Desde el punto de vista de las finanzas públicas, el dinero está sujeto a impuestos. Sin embargo, mientras el gravamen a otros bienes se recolecta a través de una entidad específica, la recolección del impuesto al dinero se realiza cuando se emiten saldos monetarios y/o aumenta el nivel de precios. En la literatura económica, el impuesto recolectad...

We present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor-saving. We model the choice of technologies in an Overlapping Genera-tions Model where any technology can be adopted paying a cost. Markets are competitive and marginal productivity of factors determines factor prices; therefore, innovations affect factor income shares. The main re-...