Henrik Singmann

Henrik Singmann
University College London | UCL · Division of Psychology and Language Sciences

PhD

About

82
Publications
21,843
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1,491
Citations
Additional affiliations
July 2009 - present
University of Freiburg
Position
  • PhD Student
July 2009 - October 2014
University of Freiburg
Position
  • PostDoc Position

Publications

Publications (82)
Article
The present research examines descriptive models of probabilistic conditional reasoning, that is of reasoning from uncertain conditionals with contents about which reasoners have rich background knowledge. According to our dual-source model, two types of information shape such reasoning: knowledge-based information elicited by the contents of the m...
Article
Full-text available
The two high threshold model (2HTM) of recognition memory makes strong predictions regarding differences between receiver operating characteristics (ROC) functions across strength manipulations. Province and Rouder (2012) tested these predictions and showed that the 2HTM provided a better account of the data than a continuous signal detection model...
Article
Full-text available
There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we pr...
Article
Full-text available
We introduce MPTinR, a software package developed for the analysis of multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. MPT models represent a prominent class of cognitive measurement models for categorical data with applications in a wide variety of fields. MPTinR is the first software for the analysis of MPT models in the statistical programming language...
Preprint
When modeling recognition-memory judgments, it is typically assumed that requesting participants to judge whether a given test item is ‘old’ is the equivalent to asking whether that very same item is ‘new’. The only difference between the two test probes being that the meaning of “yes” and “no” responses are switched. Following up on previous findi...
Article
An ongoing debate in the literature on human reasoning concerns whether or not the logical status (valid vs. invalid) of an argument can be intuitively detected. The finding that conclusions of logically valid inferences are liked more compared to conclusions of logically invalid ones-called the logic-liking effect-is one of the most prominent piec...
Preprint
Full-text available
Safer gambling messages can potentially form a part of a public health approach to preventing gambling-related harms, if found effective. This study tested the effect of the new UK safer gambling message, “take time to think”, on a range of gambling behaviours in a sample of UK-based online gamblers. UK-based online gamblers could earn monetary end...
Article
Full-text available
Statistical modeling is generally meant to describe patterns in data in service of the broader scientific goal of developing theories to explain those patterns. Statistical models support meaningful inferences when models are built so as to align parameters of the model with potential causal mechanisms and how they manifest in data. When statistica...
Article
Full-text available
Statistical modeling is generally meant to describe patterns in data in service of the broader scientific goal of developing theories to explain those patterns. Statistical models support meaningful inferences when models are built so as to align parameters of the model with potential causal mechanisms and how they manifest in data. When statistica...
Article
Full-text available
Background Safer gambling messages are a common freedom-preserving method of protecting individuals from gambling-related harm. Yet, there is little independent and rigorous evidence assessing the effectiveness of safer gambling messages. In our study, we aimed to test the effect of the historically most commonly-used UK safer gambling message on c...
Article
Full-text available
UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on speed-of-play or stakes. One recent policy proposal is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. Another policy proposal is to limit the maximum stakes on online casino games to £2, to match the current stake limit on electronic gam...
Preprint
Full-text available
Statistical modeling is generally meant to describe patterns in data in service of the broader scientific goal of developing theories to explain those patterns. Statistical models support meaningful inferences when models are built so as to align parameters of the model with potential causal mechanisms and how they manifest in data. When statistica...
Article
Full-text available
Signal detection theory (SDT) plays a central role in the characterization of human judgments in a wide range of domains, most prominently in recognition memory. But despite its success, many of its fundamental properties are often misunderstood, especially when it comes to its testability. The present work examines five main properties that are ch...
Preprint
Full-text available
We present a novel method for approximating the probability density function (PDF) of the first-passage times in the Ratcliff diffusion decision model (DDM). We implemented this approximation method in $\texttt{C++}$ using the $\texttt{R}$ package $\texttt{Rcpp}$ to utilize the faster $\texttt{C++}$ language while maintaining the $\texttt{R}$ langu...
Preprint
UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on stakes or speed-of-play. Two policy recommendations have been recently put forward: One proposal is to limit the maximum bet to £2, and another is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. However, any policy proposal may be ineffec...
Preprint
Mixed-state models of visual working memory assume discrete mental states ofknowing and guessing; information is either represented in memory or not at all. At the core of most conceptualizations of mixed-state models is the notion of conditional independence, that is, the probability of a process taking place when a given memory state is reached i...
Preprint
Full-text available
Safer gambling messages are a common freedom-preserving method of protecting individuals from gambling-related harm. Yet, there is a striking lack of independent and rigorous evidence to attest to the effectiveness of safer gambling messages. This study presents results from three large (N ≈ 3,000), preregistered, and incentivized experimental test...
Article
Full-text available
People differ in their sleep timings that are often referred to as a chronotype and can be operationalized as mid-sleep (midpoint between sleep onset and wake-up). The aims of the present studies were to examine intraindividual variability and longer-term temporal stability of mid-sleep on free and workdays, while also considering the effect of age...
Article
Full-text available
There is much recent evidence showing that explanation is central to various cognitive processes. On the other hand, philosophers have argued that the notions of explanation and explanation quality are too subjective for explanation to play any role in science: what may be an adequate explanation for one person may fail to be so for another. We com...
Article
Ongoing discussions on the nature of storage in visual working memory have mostly focused on 2 theoretical accounts: On one hand we have a discrete-state account, postulating that information in working memory is supported with high fidelity for a limited number of discrete items by a given number of "slots," with no information being retained beyo...
Article
In many real-life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making it necessary to search sequentially through them, often without a chance to return to a rejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that is above a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicit decisio...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ongoing discussions on the nature of storage in visual working memory have mostlyfocused on two theoretical accounts: On one hand we have a discrete-state accountpostulating that information in working memory is supported with high fidelity for alimited number of discrete items by a given number of “slots”, with no informationbeing retained beyond...
Chapter
Full-text available
A consistent finding in research on conditional reasoning is that individuals are more likely to endorse the valid modus ponens (MP) inference than the equally valid modus tollens (MT) inference. This pattern holds for both abstract task and probabilistic task. The existing explanation for this phenomenon within a Bayesian framework (e.g., Oaksford...
Preprint
In many real life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making itnecessary to search sequentially through them, often without a chance to return to arejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that isabove a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicitdecision ma...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter describes a class of statistical model that is able to account for most of the cases of nonindependence that are typically encountered in psychological experiments, linear mixed-effects models, or mixed models for short. It introduces the concepts underlying mixed models and how they allow accounting for different types of nonindepende...
Article
Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs....
Preprint
Full-text available
Responsible gambling campaigns are one measure enacted by a number of statutory bodies and gambling operators in response to concerns about gambling marketing and the accessibility of modern gambling products. For example, since 2015 a number of the UK‘s largest gambling operators have attached the following warning label to TV and shop window adve...
Article
Full-text available
In previous published research (“Conditionals and Inferential Connections: A Hypothetical Inferential Theory,” Cognitive Psychology, 2018), we investigated experimentally what role the presence and strength of an inferential connection between a conditional’s antecedent and consequent plays in how people process that conditional. Our analysis showe...
Preprint
In many real life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making itnecessary to sequentially search through them, often without a chance to return to arejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that isabove a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicitdecision ma...
Preprint
In many real life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making it necessary to sequentially search through them, often without a chance to return to a rejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that is above a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicit decisio...
Article
In working memory research, individual items are sometimes said to be in the "focus of attention". According to one view, this occurs for the last item in a sequentially presented list (last-item benefit). According to a second view, this occurs when items are externally cued during the retention interval (retro-cue benefit). We investigated both p...
Article
Full-text available
For many years the Diffusion Decision Model (DDM) has successfully accounted for behavioral data from a wide range of domains. Important contributors to the DDM’s success are the across-trial variability parameters, which allow the model to account for the various shapes of response time distributions encountered in practice. However, several resea...
Preprint
Full-text available
In working memory research, individual items are sometimes said to be in the "focus of attention". According to one view, this occurs for the last item in a sequentially presented list (last-item benefit). According to a second view, this occurs when items are externally cued during the retention interval (retro-cue benefit). We investigated both p...
Preprint
Signal Detection Theory (SDT) plays a central role in the characterization of human judgments in a wide range of domains, most prominently in recognition memory. But despite its success, many of its fundamental notions are often misunderstood, especially when its comes to its testability. The present work clarifies these misconceptions in the conte...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In an optimal stopping problem, people encounter a sequence of options and are tasked with choosing the best one; once an option is rejected, it is no longer available. Recent studies of optimal stopping suggest that people compare the current option with an internal threshold and accept it when the option exceeds the threshold. In contrast, we pro...
Article
Full-text available
The belief-bias effect is one of the most-studied biases in reasoning. A recent study of the phenomenon using the signal detection theory (SDT) model called into question all theoretical accounts of belief bias by demonstrating that belief-based differences in the ability to discriminate between valid and invalid syllogisms may be an artifact stemm...
Article
Full-text available
The idea that inferential performance cannot be analyzed within a single model has been suggested within two theoretical contexts. The dual strategy model suggests that people reason using different approaches to processing statistical information. The dual-source model suggests that people reason probabilistically using both statistical informatio...
Article
Refreshing and elaboration are cognitive processes assumed to underlie verbal working-memory maintenance and assumed to support long-term memory formation. Whereas refreshing refers to the attentional focussing on representations, elaboration refers to linking representations in working memory into existing semantic networks. We measured the impact...
Preprint
For many years the Diffusion Decision Model (DDM) has successfully accounted for behavioral data from a wide range of domains. Important contributors to the DDM’s success are the between-trial variability parameters, which allow the model to account for the various shapes of response time distributions encountered in practice. However, several rese...
Preprint
Full-text available
Cognitive measurement models decompose observed behavior into latent cognitive processes. For situations with more than one condition, such models allow to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes. We propose a fully Bayesian ensemble model approach to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes in situations in which multiple...
Chapter
Full-text available
p>Cognitive measurement models decompose observed behavior into latent cognitive processes. For situations with more than one condition, such models allow to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes. We propose a fully Bayesian ensemble model approach to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes in situations in which multipl...
Article
p>Cognitive measurement models decompose observed behavior into latent cognitive processes. For situations with more than one condition, such models allow to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes. We propose a fully Bayesian ensemble model approach to test hypotheses on the level of the latent processes in situations in which multipl...
Article
Full-text available
Proactive interference (PI) is the tendency for information learned earlier to interfere with more recently learned information. In the present study we induced PI by presenting items from the same category over several trials. This results in a build-up of PI and reduces the discriminability of the items in each subsequent trial. We introduced emo...
Preprint
Statistical procedures such as Bayes factor model selection and Bayesian model averaging require the computation of normalizing constants (e.g., marginal likelihoods). These normalizing constants are notoriously difficult to obtain, as they usually involve high-dimensional integrals that cannot be solved analytically. Here we introduce an R package...
Article
Full-text available
Statistical procedures such as Bayes factor model selection and Bayesian model averaging require the computation of normalizing constants (e.g., marginal likelihoods). These normalizing constants are notoriously difficult to obtain, as they usually involve high-dimensional integrals that cannot be solved analytically. Here we introduce an R package...
Article
Full-text available
Intuition suggests that for a conditional to be evaluated as true, there must be some kind of connection between its component clauses. In this paper, we formulate and test a new psychological theory to account for this intuition. We combined previous semantic and psychological theorizing to propose that the key to the intuition is a relevance-driv...
Preprint
Full-text available
The belief-bias effect is one of the most-studied biases in reasoning. A recent study of the phenomenon using the signal detection theory (SDT) model called into question all theoretical accounts of belief-bias by demonstrating that belief-based differences in the ability to discriminate between valid and invalid syllogisms may be an artifact stemm...
Article
Using a large data corpus, Wang, Solloway, Shiffrin, and Busemeyer (2014) showed that order effects in the responses given to pairs of related agree/disagree questions presented in succession follow a specific pattern termed QQ-equality. The fact that QQ-equality corresponds to a parameter-free prediction of a proposed quantum-probability model, to...
Article
Cooper, Greve, and Henson (2017) discussed the use of different approaches for measuring item and source memory, and how choices among these can affect the comparison between different groups (e.g., younger versus older adults). The authors argue that the tree structure adopted in the specification of item- and source-memory retrieval in multinomia...
Article
Full-text available
The present paper examines precursors and consequents of perceived relevance of a proposition A for a proposition C. In Experiment 1, we test Spohn’s (2012, ch. 6) assumption that ΔP = P(C|A) – P(C|∼A) is a good predictor of ratings of perceived relevance and reason relations, and we examine whether it is a better predictor than the difference meas...
Article
More than a decade of research has found strong evidence for P(if A, then C) = P(C vertical bar A) ("the Equation"). We argue, however, that this hypothesis provides an overly simplified picture due to its inability to account for relevance. We manipulated relevance in the evaluation of the probability and acceptability of indicative conditionals a...
Article
In a celebrated experiment, Joshua Knobe showed that people are much more prone to attribute intentionality to an agent for a side effect of a given act when that side effect is harmful than when it is beneficial. This asymmetry has become known as " the Knobe Effect." According to Knobe's Moral Valence Explanation (as we call it), bad effects trig...
Article
Full-text available
Kolmogorov-Chaitin complexity has long been believed to be unapproachable when it comes to short sequences (e.g. of length 5-50). However, with the newly developed coding theorem method the complexity of strings of length 2-11 can now be numerically estimated. We present the theoretical basis of algorithmic complexity for short strings (ACSS) and d...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The response deadline speed accuracy trade-off (SAT) procedure allows a full time-course function that describes how cognitive processing unfolds over time. In memory research, SAT data have been utilized to independently estimate retrieval success from processing speed, as well as to differentiate the contributions of automatic and controlled memo...
Article
Full-text available
According to GLOMOsys (the GLObal versus LOcal processing MOdel, a systems account), an important distinction is that between a local and a global processing system: The former processes information in parts, the latter processes it globally. These systems can be activated by perceptual processing and carry over to subsequent conceptual processing,...
Article
Full-text available
When referring to an object in relation to another, speakers of many languages can adopt a relative frame of reference (FoR). Following Levinson (2003), this kind of FoR can be established by projecting an observer's perspective onto the ground object either by translation, reflection, or rotation. So far, research on spatial FoRs has largely ignor...
Article
Full-text available
A long-standing debate in the recognition-memory literature concerns which model provides the best account. Prominent candidates in this debate are the unequal-variance signal detection model (UVSD), the dual-process model (DPSD), and two versions of the mixture model (MSD). The present work evaluates a recently proposed ROC-based method for compar...
Article
Full-text available
Signal Detection Theory (SDT; Wickens, 2002) is a prominent measurement model that characterizes observed classification responses in terms of discriminability and response bias. In recent years, SDT has been increasingly applied within the psychology of reasoning (Rotello and Heit, 2009; Dube et al., 2010; Heit and Rotello, 2010, 2014; Trippas et...
Article
Full-text available
Recent research on syllogistic reasoning suggests that the logical status (valid vs. invalid) of even difficult syllogisms can be intuitively detected via differences in conceptual fluency between logically valid and invalid syllogisms when participants are asked to rate how much they like a conclusion following from a syllogism (Morsanyi & Handley...
Article
Kellen, Klauer, and Singmann (2012) questioned whether possible criterion noise would contribute significantly to modeling recognition memory. Our arguments were based on a reanalysis of the data by Benjamin, Diaz, and Wee (2009) as well as on new experimental data. In a comment, Benjamin (2013) questioned some of Kellen et al.'s conclusions and ra...