Henri Waisman

• School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are expected to be both ambitious and actionable. To date, ambition is primarily assessed based on emission targets, while actionability is often judged by references to existing regulations, plans, and stakeholder engagement in policy development. While these are important elements, another perspective mu...

The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due in 2025, is a critical milestone in global climate efforts. A key challenge will be ensuring that these short-term plans align with the long-term systemic transformations needed to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. Alignment involves strategically designing short-term p...

THIS REPORT PROVIDES BENCHMARKS TO ASSESS GLOBAL PROGRESS TOWARDS NET ZERO, BASED ON 10 COUNTRIES' PERSPECTIVES. LONG-TERM TRANSFORMATIONS and IMMEDIATE ACTIONS IN NATIONAL PATHWAYS TO NET ZERO. THIS REPORT SERVES AS A TOOLBOX TO GUIDE COUNTRIES AS THEY PREPARE THEIR NDCS.

Our progress on climate action is too slow, the window is closing fast and an urgent and transformational change is required to stay within the temperature ranges defined by the Paris Climate Agreement The problem cannot be addressed by a simple juxtaposition of solutions emerging from a mitigation-focused, siloed approach or by a straightforward a...

The latest IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C highlights that reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 will require unprecedented, rapid and far-reaching systemic transitions in energy systems but also land, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems, and will imply deep emission reductions in all sectors, including the freight transport sector. This s...

This report seeks to open the box of emission pathways, by considering the multidimensional feasibility conditions-i.e. the technical, economic, political, social and institutional- that will enable the required far-reaching and systemic transformation towards the long-term goal. A detailed understanding of the transformations is indeed key to supp...

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) represent 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the AFOLU sector greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced and eventually transformed to net negative CO2e within this century. The decarbonisation choices will have significant environmental, social...

Depuis la signature de l'Accord de Paris sur le climat, la neutralité carbone s'est progressivement imposée à l'international comme l'objectif inévitable des politiques climatiques. La France l'a d'ail-leurs inscrite depuis 2019 dans la loi comme le nouveau référentiel d'ambition. La neutralité carbone se distingue d'objectifs moins ambitieux (comm...

Energy modelling is the process of using mathematical models to develop abstractions and then seek insights into future energy systems. It can be an abstract academic activity. Or, it can insert threads that influence our development. We argue therefore, that energy modelling that provides policy support (EMoPS) should not only be grounded in rigor...

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America Project (DDPLAC), which included teams from Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and Mexico, ran from early 2018 through 2020 with the following goals. 1) Building of energy and emissions models where they did not previously exist to allow the establishment of domestic capacities for anal...

Having remained stable at around 18% between 1990 and 2000, the share of rail in freight transport has steadily declined since 2010 to around 10%. At the same time, two recovery plans and strategies, launched in 2009 and 2016, have set ambitious targets, 25% in 2022 and 20% in 2030 respectively. The most recent 2019 strategic law on mobility, in it...

The transport sector represents 25% of global CO2 emissions, and large-scale emission reductions are needed in this sector to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategies are key enabling instruments to reconcile near-to-medium term action with long term objectives. While a range of optio...

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentin...

All Latin America and the Caribbean countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to between 1.5C and 2C above pre-industrial levels. Those goals require reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by around 2050 and substantial reductions of CO2 emissions by 2030. Getting to Net-Zero Emissions takes stock of the le...

Carbon emissions from the transport sector, including international air and sea transport, account for about 14% of global emissions and 23% of energy-related emissions. According to the IPCC, without targeted measures, the sector’s emissions could double by 2050. Such a trend would be in strong contrast with the achievement of carbon neutrality be...

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century l...

Detailed long-term mitigation pathways are key instruments to inform short-term planning and decisions and to avoid lock-in situations (e.g. do they lead to long-lived assets or machinery that cannot be retrofitted?). Different communities of stakeholders have strong opinions about the long-term evolution of the transport sector and argue for speci...

With country-specific development objectives and constraints, multiple market failures and limited international transfers, carbon prices do not need to be uniform across countries, but must be part of broader policy packages.

IMeg Argyriou, Chris Bataille, Michel Colombier, Patrick Criqu, Amandine Denis, Sandrine, David Sawyer, Henri Waisman The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collab- orative global research initiative seeking to understand how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy con- sistent with ambitious climate targets. In...

Reflections from Southern Modeling Forum-Towards a research agenda Who we are We come from a Southern perspective, informed by a lived reality that includes poverty and inequality-while being part of an increasingly globalised world. So our key questions are about sustainable development and climate We are primarily from Southern countries, but we...

Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We...

Le Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP) est un projet international qui vise à élaborer des trajectoires de décarbonation nationales compatibles avec l’objectif global des 2?C de réchauffement global maximal à l’horizon 2050. Ce travail est mené conjointement dans 15 pays parmi les principaux émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre par des « équi...

This paper presents an integrated model of urban agglomeration economies within a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global economic activity, energy use and carbon emissions to explore the theoretical and empirical nature of the interdependence of cities and the world economy in a climate policy context. Based on calibration data for 74...

This paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under intern...

This article contributes to the controversial debate over the effect of spatial organization on CO2 emissions by investigating the potential of infrastructure measures that favour lower mobility in achieving the transition to a low-carbon economy. The energyeconomyenvironment (E3) IMACLIM-R model is used to provide a detailed representation of pass...

This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate tha...

This paper analyzes the regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime. Four stylized burden-sharing rules are considered, ranging from GDP-based permit allocations to schemes that foresee a long-term convergence of per-capita emission permits. The comparison of results from three structurally different hy...

This paper analyzes the transition costs of moving towards a low carbon society when the second-best nature of the economy is accounted for. We emphasize the consequences on mitigation costs of considering the interplay between a ) technical systems inertia, including slow infrastructure turnover in transportation and construction; and b ) imperfec...

This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectati...

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as t...

Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. I...

To assess the sustainability of future development pathways requires models to compute long-run Economy?Energy?Environment scenarios. This paper presents the IMACLIM-R framework, aimed at investigating climate, energy and development inter-related issues. The model was built in an attempt to address three methodological challenges: to incoporate kn...

An hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM -R is implemented to capture the macro economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

The global economy's appetite for energy is big and rising. At the same time, the Earth's ability to digest the waste products of energy consumption is decreasing. Newest scientific evidence suggests that global warming proceeds more rapidly than previously anticipated: CO2 emissions growth is higher than thought, the oceans' capacity to act as nat...

This paper envisages endogenous technical change that results from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model Imaclim-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. Ima...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This paper develops a theoretical model to formalize the notions of spatial sustainability and sustainable trade. It incorporates agglomeration effects, production-and trade-related environmental externalities, and dynamics of migration and pollution. The model can generate different spatial configurations of the economy and transitions between the...

Alors que des efforts importants de réduction des nuisances sont envisagés dans certains secteurs de l'économie (comme l'industrie qui est au cœur du processus de Kyoto), le transport apparaît comme un enjeu essentiel des politiques de développement durable dans les 20 prochaines années. Plus précisément, la première partie de ce rapport a permis d...

Alors que des efforts importants de réduction des nuisances sont envisagés danscertains secteurs de l'économie (comme l'industrie qui est au cœur du processus de Kyoto), letransport apparaît comme un enjeu essentiel des politiques de développement durable dans les20 prochaines années. Plus précisément, la première partie de ce rapport a permis de s...