Harry J de Koning

Erasmus MC | Erasmus MC · Department of Public Health

Background: HPV vaccination is most efficacious in preventing cervical cancer and its precursors when administered during preadolescence. Because in Slovenia women are invited for cytology screening from age 20, women targeted for preadolescent HPV vaccination have been screening-eligible since 2018. We aim to assess the impact of preadolescent HPV...

Purpose Breast cancer (BC) screening enables early detection of BC, which may lead to improved quality of life (QoL). We aim to compare QoL between women with a screen-detected and clinically detected BC in the Netherlands. Methods We used data from the ‘Utrecht cohort for Multiple BREast cancer intervention studies and Long-term evaluation’ (UMBR...

Importance Information on long-term benefits and harms of screening with digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) with or without supplemental breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is needed for clinical and policy discussions, particularly for patients with dense breasts. Objective To project long-term population-based outcomes for breast cancer mamm...

Background Recommendations regarding personalized lung cancer screening are being informed by natural-history modeling. Therefore, understanding how differences in model assumptions affect model-based personalized screening recommendations is essential. Design Five Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models were evaluate...

Importance The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling...

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of...

Objectives: To define the optimal and cost-effective breast cancer screening strategy for Georgia. Methods: We used the Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Breast (MISCAN-Breast) model that has been adapted to theGeorgian situation to evaluate 736 mammography screening strategies varied by interval (biennial and triennial), startingages (40-60 year...

Background: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early interventio...

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especial...

Women tend to make a decision about participation in breast cancer screening and adhere to this for future invitations. Therefore, our study aimed to provide high‐quality information on cumulative risks of false‐positive (FP) recall and screen‐detected breast cancer over multiple screening examinations. Individual Dutch screening registry data (200...

Objectives: Organized breast cancer screening may not achieve its full potential due to organizational and cultural barriers. In Italy, two identified barriers were low attendance in Southern Italy and, in Italy as a whole, underscreening and overscreening in parts of the eligible population. The objective of this study was to identify potential c...

Background: In their 2021 lung cancer screening recommendation update, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) evaluated strategies that select people based on their personal lung cancer risk (risk model-based strategies), highlighting the need for further research on the benefits and harms of risk model-based screening. Objective: To e...

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening. Methods Two microsimulation m...

Background Many European countries offer organised population-based breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening programmes. Around age 55 and 60, Dutch women are invited to all three screening programmes. We examined the extent to which participation concurs and identified factors influencing concurrent participation. Materials and methods I...

Breast cancer screening is associated with harms, such as false-positives and overdiagnoses, and, thus, novel screen tests can be considered. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of cancer, but low cell-free DNA tumor fraction might pose a problem for the use in population screening. Using breast cancer micro...

Childhood vision screening programmes in Europe differ by age, frequency and location at which the child is screened, and by the professional who performs the test. The aim of this study is to compare the cost-effectiveness for three countries with different health care structures. We developed a microsimulation model of amblyopia. The natural hist...

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) causes irreversible myocardial damage, heart failure, life-threatening arrythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD), and is a main driver of CVD mortality and morbidity. To control the forecasted increase in CVD burden for both the...

Breast cancer screening policies have been designed decades ago, but current screening strategies may not be optimal anymore. Next to that, screening capacity issues may restrict feasibility. This cost‐effectiveness study evaluates an extensive set of breast cancer screening strategies in the Netherlands. Using the Microsimulation Screening Analysi...

Importance: Screening mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are recommended for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. However, there are few data to guide screening regimens for these women. Objective: To estimate the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening strategies using mammography and MRI at various start ag...

Background CRC mortality rates are higher for individuals with a lower socioeconomic status (SES). Screening could influence health inequalities. We therefore aimed to investigate SES differences in participation and diagnostic yield of FIT screening. Methods All invitees in 2014 and 2015 in the Dutch national CRC screening programme were included...

There are currently screening programmes for breast, cervical and colorectal cancer in many European countries. However, the uptake of cancer screening in general may vary within and between countries. The aim of this study is to assess the inequalities in testing utilization by socio-economic status and whether the amount of inequality varies acro...

Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) burden for society is expected to steeply increase over the next decade. Improved feasibility and efficiency of preventive strategies is necessary to flatten the curve. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the main determinant of CAD-related mortality and morbidity, and predominantly occurs in individuals wi...

Lung cancer screening is effective if offered to people at increased risk of the disease. Currently, direct contact with potential participants is required for evaluating risk. A way to reduce the number of ineligible people contacted might be to apply risk-prediction models directly to digital primary care data, but model performance in this setti...

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) issued its 2021 recommendation on lung cancer screening, which lowered the starting age for screening from 55 to 50 years and the minimum cumulative smoking exposure from 30 to 20 pack-years relative to its 2013 recommendation. Although costs are expected to increase because of the expande...

Background High volumes of standardized coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans are generated in screening that need to be scored accurately and efficiently to risk stratify individuals. Purpose To evaluate the performance of deep learning based software for automatic coronary calcium scoring in a screening setting. Methods Participants from the Robi...

Background: Extremely dense breast tissue is associated with increased breast cancer risk and limited sensitivity of mammography. The DENSE trial showed that additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening in women with extremely dense breasts resulted in a substantial reduction in interval cancers. The cost-effectiveness of MRI screening fo...

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol‐related liver disease (ALD), although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the...

Background High breast density increases breast cancer risk and lowers mammographic sensitivity. Supplemental MRI screening improves cancer detection but increases the number of false-positive screenings. Thus, methods to distinguish true-positive MRI screening results from false-positive ones are needed. Purpose To build prediction models based on...

Background: High volumes of standardized coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans are generated in screening that need to be scored accurately and efficiently to risk stratify individuals. Purpose: To evaluate the performance of deep learning based software for automatic coronary calcium scoring in a screening setting. Methods: Participants from the...

Introduction In cost-effectiveness analyses, the future costs, disutility and mortality from alternative causes of morbidity are often not completely taken into account. We explored the impact of different assumed values for each of these factors on the cost-effectiveness of screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC)....

Background The introduction of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and MRI‐guided biopsy has improved the diagnosis of prostate cancer. However, it remains uncertain whether it is cost‐effective, especially in a population‐based screening strategy. Methods We used a micro‐simulation model to assess the cost‐effectiveness of an MRI‐b...

Randomised clinical trials have shown the efficacy of computed tomography lung cancer screening, initiating discussions on whether and how to implement population‐based screening programs. Due to smoking behaviour being the primary risk‐factor for lung cancer and part of the criteria for determining screening eligibility, lung cancer screening is i...

Importance In 2018, only half of US women obtained all evidence-based cancer screenings. This proportion may have declined during the COVID-19 pandemic because of social distancing, high-risk factors, and fear. Objective To evaluate optimal screening strategies in women who obtain some, but not all, US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF)–recom...

Background Aiming to support European countries in improving their breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes, the EU-TOPIA consortium has developed an online user-friendly tool (the EU-TOPIA evaluation tool; https://miscan.eu-topia.org) based on the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) model. Methods We designed an...

Background In the first (prevalent) supplemental MRI screening round of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial, a considerable number of breast cancers were found at the cost of an increased false-positive rate (FPR). In incident screening rounds, a lower cancer detection rate (CDR) is expected due to a smaller pool of p...

Background To determine, using testicular germ cell cancer screening as an example, whether screening can also be effective for cancers with a good prognosis. Methods Based on the Dutch incidence, stage distribution, and survival and mortality data of testicular germ cell cancer, we developed a microsimulation model. This model simulates screening...

Importance The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2013 lung cancer screening guidelines, which recommend annual screening for adults aged 55 through 80 years who have a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Objective To inform the USPSTF guidelines by estimating...

Two large-scale RCTs have shown computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening to be efficacious in reducing lung cancer mortality (8-24% in men, 26-59% in women). However, lung cancer screening implicitly means personalised and risk-based approaches. Health care systems' implementation of personalised screening and prevention is still sparse, and...

Randomized-controlled trials have confirmed substantial reductions in lung cancer mortality with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening. Evidence on how to integrate smoking cessation support in lung cancer screening is however scarce. This represents a significant gap in the literature, as a combined strategy of lung cancer screening and sm...

Background A paucity of research addresses breast cancer screening strategies for women at lower-than-average breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to examine screening harms and benefits among women aged 50-74 years at lower-than-average breast cancer risk by breast density. Methods Three well-established, validated Cancer Intervention an...

Background. Validated microsimulation models have been shown to be useful tools in providing support for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening decisions. Aiming to assist European countries in reducing CRC mortality, we developed and validated three regional models for evaluating CRC screening in Europe. Methods. Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colo...

Objectives To quantify the impact of mammography-based screening on the quality of life, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted or quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained can be used. We aimed to assess whether the use of DALYs averted or QALYs gained will lead to different cost-effective screening strategies. Methods Using the microsim...

The benefit of prostate cancer screening is counterbalanced by the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The use of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) test after a positive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test followed by magnetic resonance imaging-guided biopsy (MRIGB) may reduce these harms. The aim of this study was to dete...

Background Several studies have investigated MRI breast cancer screening in women at increased risk, but little is known about their preferences. In this study, experiences, expectations and preferences for MRI and mammography were evaluated among women undergoing screening with MRI and/or mammography in the randomized FaMRIsc trial. Methods A 17-...

Objectives: Early detection of neonatal hearing impairment moderates the negative effects on speech and language development. Universal neonatal hearing screening protocols vary in tests used, timing of testing and the number of stages of screening. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of various protocols in the preparation of implementati...

Objective Eastern European countries are contemplating to introduce the high-risk Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-test as the primary screening test for their cervical cancer screening programme, but its optimal protocol is yet unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of different primary HPV-screening prot...

Aims Screening for a high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk followed by preventive treatment can potentially reduce coronary heart disease (CHD)-related morbidity and mortality. ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease) is a population-based randomized controlled screening trial that investigates the effectiveness of CVD sc...

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Background and study aims Low adherence to the Dutch guideline for colonoscopy surveillance after polypectomy led to release of a new guideline in 2013. This new guideline was risk-stratified at a more detailed level than the previous one to achieve more efficient use of colonoscopy resources. This study assessed the feasibility of the risk-stratif...

Background: We assessed the clinical utility of a first-degree breast cancer family history (FH) and polygenic risk score (PRS) to inform screening decisions among women aged 30-50 years. Method: Two established breast cancer models evaluated digital mammography screening strategies in the 1985 US birth cohort by risk groups defined by family hi...

Background Prostate cancer screening incurs a high risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. An organized and age‐targeted screening strategy may reduce the associated harms while retaining or enhancing the benefits. Methods Using a micro‐simulation analysis (MISCAN) model, we assessed the harms, benefits, and cost‐effectiveness of 230 prostate‐spe...

Background Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a promising screening test, but its outcomes and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain.PurposeTo determine if biennial DBT is cost-effective in a screening setting, when compared with digital mammography (DM) in the Netherlands, and to quantify the uncertainty.Materials and Methods In this study, perfo...

Background Using appropriate health state utility values (HSUVs) is critical for economic evaluation of new lung cancer interventions, such as low-dose computed tomography screening and immunotherapy. Therefore, we provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of community- and choice-based HSUVs for lung cancer.Methods On 6 March 2017, we conducte...

Background and aims Many countries have introduced colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs with fecal immunochemical tests (FITs), and follow-up colonoscopies for individuals with a positive FIT result. In order to make an informed decision to participate, individuals must be informed about the benefits and harms of FIT-based screening and subse...