Harald Winkler

Harald Winkler
University of Cape Town | UCT · Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment

PhD Energy Studies, UCT

About

233
Publications
109,535
Reads
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7,418
Citations
Citations since 2016
39 Research Items
5338 Citations
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Introduction
Professor: Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment (EBE), University of Cape Town. Harald’s research interests are at the intersection of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. His approach is transdisciplinary, seeking to understand how to accelerate mitigation and shifting development pathways towards sustainability. Specific focus areas for future research include equity and inequality between and within countries; just transitions; the global stock-take; and low emis
Additional affiliations
April 2018 - present
University of Cape Town
Position
  • Professor
April 2013 - March 2018
University of Cape Town
Position
  • Managing Director
January 2011 - March 2013
University of Cape Town
Position
  • Professor

Publications

Publications (233)
Article
Full-text available
A just transition transaction (JTT) in South Africa aims to address complex challenges of financing a transition away from coal, and social justice. Accelerated decarbonisation of electricity is essential for mitigation globally and in SA. However, the national utility Eskom, a state-owned enterprise, is in crisis with major operational, structural...
Article
The Parties to the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement agreed to act on the basis of equity to protect the climate system. Equitable effort sharing is an irreducibly normative matter, yet some influential studies have sought to create quantitative indicators of equitable effort that claim to be value-neutral (despite evident biases). Many of these studies f...
Article
As a global community, we need to understand better how a just transition can shift development paths to achieve net zero emissions and eliminate poverty. Our past development trajectories have led to high emissions, persistent inequality and a world that is fragmented across multiple contradictions. How can countries shift to development pathways...
Research
Full-text available
Just transition from historically high-emissions and exclusive development to low-emissions, inclusive development. A just transition in South Africa’s electricity sector from coal to cleaner energy is critical for climate change mitigation. And to be just, the transition must leave no-one behind. A just transition transaction would finance two key...
Article
Full-text available
New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris. New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris.
Preprint
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In the lead-up to COP21 in Paris, 2015, all Parties to the UNFCCC were invited to communicate their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), which could include information on how the Party considers its INDC is fair and ambitious (1/CP.20, para 14). The same information to accompany nationally determined contributions (NDCs) was inclu...
Article
Equity has started to be put into practice in the global stocktake (GST), a key process in implementing the Paris Agreement. The Paris rulebook specifies inputs and modalities for the GST, explicitly referring to equity or fairness in seven places, with an important additional implicit reference. This paper illustrates how equity is part of informa...
Article
The 24th international climate conference in Katowice, Poland, in December 2018 was a major achievement in the multilateral response to climate change. More than 190 countries managed to agree on nearly all elements of a comprehensive rulebook that puts flesh on the bones of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The rules require, for the first time, that all...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Para for web Tracking progress of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is a central feature of the Paris Agreement and its rule-book. This policy brief focuses on tracking progress on mitigation. The modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPG) agreed at COP 24 in Katowice, and we consider chapter III on the mitigation components of NDCs. We s...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In the lead-up to COP21 in Paris, 2015, all Parties to the UNFCCC were invited to communicate their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), which could include information on how the Party considers its INDC is fair and ambitious (1/CP.20, para 14). The same information to accompany nationally determined contributions (NDCs) was inclu...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century l...
Article
Full-text available
Professor Harald Winkler is the recipient of the 2017/2018 NSTF-South32 Special Annual Theme Award: Sustainable Energy for All (in recognition of the United Nations 'International Decade of Sustainable Energy for All').
Article
The author names are presented incorrectly in the published paper. The corrected author list is presented below. Sonja Klinsky1 and HaraldWinkler2 1Arizona State University School of Sustainability, Tempe, AZ, USA 2University of Cape Town Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa. © 2018 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All right...
Article
Emission pathways consistent with limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C raise pressing questions from an equity perspective. These pathways would limit impacts and benefit vulnerable communities but also present trade-offs that could increase inequality. Meanwhile, rapid mitigation could exacerbate political debates in which equity has played a ce...
Article
Full-text available
In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, every country was invited to submit an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), and indicate how it is fair. We analyse how countries have explained the equity of mitigation and adaptation in 163 INDCs, providing a bottom-up analysis of equity to complement a literature that has focused on top-down...
Article
Full-text available
Two cod stocks (western Baltic cod, WBC, and eastern Baltic cod, EBC) are managed in the Baltic Sea which is characterized by different main spawning areas and different main spawning periods. In this study we analyse the spatial and temporal occurrence of spawning individuals of both cod stocks in the main spawning grounds of the Baltic Sea based...
Article
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How much can poverty be reduced through carbon tax revenue? This study analyses specific programmes, with carbon taxes generating revenues and equivalent spending on programmes to reduce energy poverty. The twin challenges of development and climate change could be addressed in this way in South Africa. A simple spreadsheet model was used to estima...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Executive Summary: The purpose of this Commission is to explore explicit carbon-pricing options and levels that would induce the change in behaviors— particularly in those driving the investments in infrastructure, technology, and equipment—needed to deliver on the temperature objective of the Paris Agreement, in a way that fosters economic growth...
Article
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The transparency framework under Article 13 of the Paris Agreement further enhances existing arrangements, in which commitments and actions were ‘measurable, reportable, and verifiable’ (MRV). Locating itself in the earlier MRV literature, the article examines the Paris transparency framework comprehensively, while deepening analysis of key aspects...
Article
This paper examines climate change impact on hydropower will affect the expansion of the regional electricity system, as well as system costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The output from major Zambezi hydropower plants could decline by 10–20% under a drying climate, while wetting of the basin produces only a marginal increase. At a regional level,...
Book
Full-text available
The potential economic and energy security opportunities of a medium to large shale gas resource could be substantial for South Africa; as are both the potential social and environmental risks associated with a domestic gas industry in the Central Karoo. The development of shale gas using vertical and horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing or...
Article
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggr...
Article
Improved tools are required to deliver good information for decision-making on the potential socio-economic benefits of a transition to a low-carbon society. This article reports on modelling approaches to answer policy-relevant questions carried out research teams in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. The teams link detailed models of...
Article
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Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South...
Article
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[The final article is available on springer.com] Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change means rethinking development goals, more than pursuing climate targets. Much analysis in the development–climate literature has framed development as a co-benefit, while the objective has been climate stabilization. This misses the point that...
Research
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The Energy Research Centre at UCT provided technical background information on mitigation for the development of South Africa's INDC, it's intended nationally determined contribution.
Book
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The book summarizes findings of research of 16 country teams on deep decarbonization pathways, aiming at limiting the global warming by 2 degrees Celsius.
Book
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This supplementary material contains case studies presenting specific aspects of the DDPP country pathways. They illustrate and complement the cross-cutting analysis included in the 2015 DDPP synthesis report
Article
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The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of...
Article
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This forum article outlines a research agenda focused on linkages between the UNFCCC and other governance arrangements that also address climate change. We take as our point of departure the recognition that the UNFCCC is no longer the sole site of global climate change governance, and thus the types of linkage across what we call the global climat...
Article
This study explores the relations between agricultural productivity improvement and mitigation potentiality in Africa mainly in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zambia characterized by different agricultural production system and agroecological zones. Firstly it used Decomposition of Productivity Number Index approach to evaluate the country’s agricultura...
Article
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The principle of common, but differentiated, responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC) is fundamental to the UNFCCC. Some options for a nuanced model of differentiation that addresses both responsibility and capability in a changing world are explored, such as new categories of countries, and some of the political issues that such a mo...
Technical Report
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Key points • The REIPPPP is largely viewed as a positive and innovative programme • We need a base load procurement model that builds on the successes of the REIPPP and extends these to base load IPPs • Eskom's future financial health presents a significant risk to procurement of renewables, thermal baseload and nuclear power • The contribution to...
Book
Full-text available
This report stated the key concepts of decarbonization of 15 leading economies aiming at limiting global warming by 2 degrees Celsius. The report was presented to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in support of the UN Climate Leaders’ Summit in New York on September 23, 2014 and the UNFCCC COP21, where the historic Paris Climate Agreement was signed...
Article
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It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, works...
Article
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There is increased interest, both in South Africa and globally, in the use of shale gas for electricity and energy supply. The exploitation of shale gas is, however, not without controversy, because of the reported environmental impacts associated with its extraction. The focus of this article is on the greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas, which...
Article
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The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with...
Article
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The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental develo...
Article
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This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of th...
Article
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In order to provide a framework for the country case studies that follow, this review article outlines how the concept of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) arose in the context of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. The paper outlines how the NAMA concept is being developed internationally in...
Article
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Efforts towards Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+) have grown in importance in developing countries following negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This has favoured investments in...
Article
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Using the AGP*, PGI-1*, PGI-2*, LDH*, IDH*, and PGM* allozyme markers, the differentiation of cod groups during the spawning period in Baltic Sea was evaluated. It was demonstrated that cod samples from the eastern and western parts of Baltic Sea (being statistically significantly different from the cod samples from the Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea,...
Article
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The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for thei...
Article
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In light of the ongoing international discussions about the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action concept, this study takes instead a more ‘bottom-up’ approach through a comparative analysis of five studies of mitigation actions (MAs) in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru and South Africa. The analysis shows that MAs are driven by both developmental...
Article
Equitable access to sustainable development (EASD) is crucial for the future of the climate regime as it applies to adaptation, mitigation, and the means of implementation. An approach to allocating effort and deriving carbon budgets is presented here based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of responsi...