Hans-Hermann Thulke

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research | UFZ · Department of Ecological Modelling

Surveillance approaches for wildlife diseases often are based on strategies devised for livestock diseases. Following standard protocols, surveillance sometimes continues after apparent disease elimination. However, in the case of recurrent wildlife diseases that cause decisive morbidity and mortality, efficient and effective surveillance strategie...

Mechanistic epidemiological modelling has a role in predicting the spatial and temporal spread of emerging disease outbreaks and purposeful application of control treatment in animal populations. Especially in the case of infectious diseases newly emerging in an ecological habitat, lack of knowledge may hamper direct parameterisation of model algor...

Decision makers must have sufficient confidence in models if they are to influence their decisions. We propose three screening questions to critically evaluate models with respect to their purpose, organization, and evidence. They enable a more transparent, robust, and secure use of model outputs.

Multiple global change pressures, and their interplay, cause plant-pollinator extinctions and modify species assemblages and interactions. This may alter the risks of pathogen host shifts, intra- or interspecific pathogen spread, and emergence of novel population or community epidemics. Flowers are hubs for pathogen transmission. Consequently, the...

We present a new modelling framework to address the evaluation of national control/surveillance programs planned in line with the European Animal Health Law (AHL) for livestock diseases. Our modelling framework is applied to the cattle sector in Ireland where there is need for policy support to design an optimal programme to achieve bovine herpesvi...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a group pest categorisation for the EU territory of non‐EU Scolytinae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on non‐coniferous hosts, which total 6495 known species. Most species attack apparently healthy, weakened or dead trees, either feeding on the phloem (‘bark beetles’ subgroup) or on fungi inoculated into the sap...

In accordance with the EFSA Strategy 2027 outlining the need for fit‐for‐purpose protocols for EFSA generic scientific assessments, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH Panel) developed standard protocols to harmonise the problem formulation process and outputs for mandates addressing recurrent scientific questions. Three types of recurring EFSA pla...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to deliver a risk assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom from Union quarantine pests and pests subject to measures adopted pursuant to Article 30 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/2031 for the maple veneer sheets manufactured according to the process set out by Canada, with emphasis on...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants and bundles of bare‐root plants or cell...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Matsucoccus matsumurae (Hemiptera: Matsucoccidae), the Massonian pine bast scale, for the EU territory. This pest categorisation was initiated following the commodity risk assessment of artificially dwarfed plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora (Japanese white pine) grafte...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Monema flavescens (Lepidoptera, Limacodidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which M. flavescens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This species can be identified by morphological t...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera: Coccidae), following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii and Pinus parviflora bonsai plants grafted on P. thunbergii from China, in which C. rubens was identified as a p...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Coniella castaneicola (Ellis & Everh) Sutton, following commodity risk assessments of Acer campestre, A. palmatum, A. platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Quercus petraea and Q. robur plants from the UK, in which C. castaneicola was identified as a pest...

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Phlyctinus callosus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a polyphagous pest occurring in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus avium possibly grafted on rootstocks...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani (Trombidiformes: Tenuipalpidae), known as the Iranian false spider mite, following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye, in which C. irani was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union (EU). The p...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which P. quadriguttata was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union. This is a univolt...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘high risk plants, plant products and other objects’. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the ap...

African swine fever is a transmissible virus impacting wild and domestic swine populations. In Europe, it is non-native and the recently introduced genotype affects wild boar populations with occasional outbreaks in domestic pigs. The ability to predict short-term spatial dynamics of this disease will greatly improve our ability to control and limi...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Diaphania indica (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the cucumber moth for the territory of the European Union (EU), following the commodity risk assessment of Jasminum polyanthum from Uganda, in which D. indica was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. D. indica is n...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Bailey's rust mite, Calepitrimerus baileyi Keifer (Acariformes: Eriophyidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye performed by EFSA, in which C. baileyi was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This mite is not lis...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss, 1937) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on P. thunbergii, in which S. patruelis was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU)....

The poster aims to present the progress and challenges in the eradication of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) in Ireland and highlight the unresolved issues that require further research and action.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Tilia cordata and T. platyphyllos imported...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Eulecanium giganteum (Hemiptera: Coccidae), the giant eulecanium scale, for the territory of the European Union, following the commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants from China, in which E. giganteum came to attention as a pest of possible concern. The pest is only known t...

Following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which Crisicoccus matsumotoi (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) was identified as a pest of possible concern, the European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of C. matsumotoi for the territory of the Europ...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Kenya. The relevance of any pest for...

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Retithrips syriacus (Mayet) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), a polyphagous thrips, regarded as a tropical/subtropical pest occurring in several countries of Africa, South America, Asia and in the EU in Cyprus. The curren...

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested im...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘high risk plants, plant products and other objects’. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the ap...

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment of Leucinodes orbonalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, for the EU. The assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, climatic conditions favouring establishment, spread and impact. Options fo...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Dendrolimus punctatus (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which D. punctatus was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). D. punctatus, also known as the M...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Garella musculana (Erschov) (Lepidoptera: Nolidae), following a commodity risk assessment of Juglans regia plants for planting from Türkiye, in which G. musculana was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). Commonly know...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of the evergreen Ligustrum ovalifolium and the...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High‐risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by defoliated 1‐ or 2‐year old bare root plants for plan...

Following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants (Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii) from China performed by EFSA, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pyrrhoderma noxium, a clearly defined plant pathogenic basidiomycete fungus of the order Hymenochaetales and the family Hymenochaetaceae. The pathogen is...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes malicola (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), the Armenian mussel scale, for the territory of the European Union, following commodity risk assessments of Prunus persica and P. dulcis plants for planting from Türkiye, in which L. malicola was identified as a pest of possible concern...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both, regulated and non‐regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Guatemala. The relevance of any pest for...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Malacosoma parallela (Staudinger) (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) for the territory of the European Union, following commodity risk assessments of Berberis thunbergii, Malus domestica, Prunus persica and P. dulcis plants for planting from Türkiye, in which M. parallela came to attention...

Following the EFSA commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants imported from Türkiye into the EU, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Pratylenchus loosi (Nematoda: Pratylenchidae) for the EU. Pratylenchus loosi belongs to the order Rhabditida, subfamily Pratylenchidae. This nematode is not known to be present i...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Corylus avellana imported from the United K...

The poster highlights some of the pitfalls when analyzing age-related prevalence data

Summary of a model study to examine the impact and costs of a potential IBR eradication program in Ireland

Following the commodity risk assessments of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on P. thunbergii performed by EFSA, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis disseminata, a clearly defined plant pathogenic fungus of the family Pestalotiopsidaceae. The pathogen has been reported on herb...

Following an EFSA commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants (Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii) imported from China, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis microspora, a clearly defined plant pathogenic fungus of the family Pestalotiopsidaceae. The pathogen was reported on a wide range of monocotyl...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes pineti Borchsenius the pine oyster scale, Lepidosaphes pini (Maskell) the Oriental pine scale and Lepidosaphes piniphila Borchsenius (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) for the EU, following a commodity risk assessment of dwarfed Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from Chi...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Mimela testaceipes (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), the striated chafer, for the EU, following a commodity risk assessment of dwarfed Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China in which M. testaceipes was identified as a pest of possible concern to the EU. M. testaceipes occur...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the citrus root weevil Diaprepes abbreviatus (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) for the European Union (EU) following the commodity risk assessment of Ligustrum delavayanum topiary grafted on L. japonicum plants from the UK in which D. abbreviatus was identified as a relevant non‐regul...

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathwa...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Didesmococcus unifasciatus (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Coccidae) for the EU following commodity risk assessments of Malus domestica (apple), Prunus dulcis (almond) and P. persica (peach) plants for planting from Türkiye in which D. unifasciatus was identified as a pest that could pot...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High-risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by bare root plants of Malus domestica grafted on rootst...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High‐risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Quercus robur imported from the UK as: (a)...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High‐risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Quercus petraea imported from the UK as: (a...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Pochazia shantungensis (Hemiptera: Auchenorrhyncha: Ricaniidae) for the EU following commodity risk assessments of Malus domestica, Prunus persica, P. dulcis and Robinia pseudoacacia plants for planting from Türkiye in which P. shantungensis was identified as a pest that could potent...

The EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Setoptus parviflorae (Acari: Eriophyoidea: Phytoptidae) for the European Union (EU). This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. It is known to occur in the Nanjing Botanical Garden (China) on Pinus parviflora. This is its only known host pl...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Fagus sylvatica imported from the United Ki...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Blissus insularis (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Blissidae) for the European Union (EU) territory. B. insularis, known in the US as the southern chinch bug, primarily feeds on St. Augustine grass (Stenotaphrum secundatum, Poaceae, subfamily Panicoideae). This is a lawn grass grown in warm,...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Euzophera semifuneralis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the American plum borer for the EU. This insect is native to North America, reported from the United States, Canada and Mexico. Out of its native range it is only present in Türkiye. It has not been reported in the EU and is not liste...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Hoplolaimus galeatus (Nematoda: Hoplolaimidae) for the EU. H. galeatus belongs to the order Rhabditida, subfamily Hoplolaiminae. This nematode is not reported from the EU and is not included in the EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. It is widely distributed in the USA a...

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest categorisation of the avocado sunblotch viroid (ASBVd) for the EU. The identity of ASBVd, a member of the genus Avsunviroid (family Avsunviroidae) is clearly defined and detection and identification methods are available. The pathogen is not included in the EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer campestre imported from the UK as: (a)...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer palmatum imported from the United King...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer platanoides imported from the United K...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer pseudoplatanus imported from the Unite...

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by rooted plants and bundles of bare root plants or root...

The EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Diplodia bulgarica, a clearly defined plant pathogenic fungus of the family Botryosphaeriaceae. The pathogen affects Malus domestica, M. sylvestris and Pyrus communis causing various symptoms such as canker, twig blight, gummosis, pre- and post-harvest fruit rot, dieback and tree declin...