Hancheng Dai

Hancheng Dai
Peking University | PKU · Laboratory of Energy & Environmental Economics and Policy (LEEEP)

PhD

About

103
Publications
35,340
Reads
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4,189
Citations
Introduction
Prof. Dai’s research focuses on developing state-of-the-art integrated assessment models to explore how the society could transit into a low-carbon and sustainable future for a healthy planet and healthy people at the local, national and global scales. Dr. Dai ranked as the World's Top 2% most-cited scientists released by Stanford University in 2020. His main publications include 8 ESI 1% highly cited papers. See more: http://scholar.pku.edu.cn/hanchengdai
Additional affiliations
January 2017 - December 2022
Peking University
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
Description
  • Head, Laboratory of Energy & Environmental Economics and Policy (LEEEP)
January 2013 - present
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Position
  • Research Associate
October 2009 - December 2012
Tokyo Institute of Technology
Position
  • PhD Student
Education
October 2006 - March 2009
Technische Universität München
Field of study
  • Environmental Planning

Publications

Publications (103)
Article
Securing the supply of platinum-group metals (PGMs) is crucial for the development of fuel cell vehicles (FCV), which are among the most promising low-carbon vehicle technologies in the future. Existing research has evaluated the worldwide demand and supply of platinum-group metals in this century with bottom-up models on the competing battery tech...
Article
China has put great efforts into air pollution control over the past years and recently committed to its most ambitious climate target. Cost and benefit analysis has been widely used to evaluate the control policies in terms of past performance, future reduction potential, and direct and indirect impacts. To understand the cost and benefit analysis...
Article
Full-text available
China is the world’s top water consumer and CO2 emitter. The government has deployed Three Red Lines (TRLs) to improve water security by 2030 and committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s industries, which account for half of national CO2 emissions and >20% water withdrawals, is key to decarbonization and water conservation. However...
Article
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PM2.5 pollution-related diseases lead to additional medical expenses and the loss of working hours, thus affecting the macro-economy. To evaluate the health-related economic impacts of PM2.5, the Integrated Assessment Model of Climate, Economic, and Environment (ICEEH), combined with the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Greenhouse Ga...
Article
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Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential traject...
Article
Iron and steel production in China contributes to 14% of China’s total energy-related CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing the iron and steel sector will therefore play an important role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. This study explored possible low-carbon transition pathways for China’s iron and steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality by...
Article
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Facing the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, China has set ambitious goals and made decisive efforts to reduce its carbon emission and win the 'Battle for Blue Sky'. However, how the low-carbon transition and air quality targets could be simultaneously achieved at the sub-national levels remains unclear. The questions arise wheth...
Article
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s National-scale energy systems optimisation models (ESOMs) have been limited in the past by the lack of sub-national data availability leading to aggregated treatment of spatial dynamics. This review paper first determines how a combination of supply and demand data requirements and socio-economic, environmental and political issues, can challenge...
Article
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Global greenhouse gas emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimate...
Article
We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though Top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy policies to assess emission redu...
Chapter
Renewable energy (RE) development could have a positive effect on CO2 emission and towards productive energy utilization and the establishment of a high capacity power generation from wind and solar photovoltaic power. In this regard, this study presents a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for analysing the climate and economic benefits...
Article
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Background: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health...
Article
China's national carbon emissions trading system (ETS) initially started by covering the power generation sector with a rate-based allocation of emission allowances. This single-sector ETS scheme is a tradable performance standard and loosens the participants' emission abatement effort. Given the stringent emission reduction targets implied by Chin...
Article
The coal-dominated electricity system poses major challenges for India to tackle air pollution and climate change. Although the government has issued a series of clean air policies and low-carbon energy targets, a key barrier remains enforcement. Here, we quantify the importance of policy implementation in India’s electricity sector using an integr...
Article
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Synergies and trade-offs exist between climate mitigation actions and target indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Some studies have assessed such relationships, but the degree of such interaction remains poorly understood. Here, we show the SDG implications associated with CO 2 emissions reductions. We developed ‘marginal SDG-emi...
Article
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Agriculture consumes huge amounts of water in China and is profoundly affected by climate change. This study projects the agricultural water use towards 2030 under the climate change mitigation target at the provincial level in China by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a regression model. By solving the endogeneities amongst...
Book
Full-text available
北京大学环境科学与工程学院能源环境经济与政策研究室致力于开发能源-环境-经济可持续发展综合评价模型(IMED模型),为实现绿色低碳可持续发展的学术研究和政策制定贡献力量。IMED模型,全称为Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development,是一套包括经济能源环境资源数据库和模型的体系,目的是以系统和定量的方法,在市区、省级、国家、全球尺度上,分析经济、能源、环境和气候政策,为相关决策提供科学支撑。IMED模型近年来被系统地应用于综合评价我国国家层面和省级层面的空气污染减排、人群健康、资源效率以及能源和气候政策。
Book
Full-text available
Global climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- sions is one of the major challenges facing humankind this century. As global GHG emissions increase, global temperatures have risen significantly, exceeding the pre-industrial revolution level and resulting in many consequences such as glacier shrinkage, sea level rise, extre...
Article
Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and pr...
Article
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In this paper, we adopt a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of achieving Taiwan’s target of nationally determined contributions (NDC). We consider two types of scenarios: one implemented with the emission trading system (ETS) and the other designed under cap without trade. Our findings suggest that Taiwan’s NDC target...
Article
Background Co-benefit assessments on health and economic impacts of climate change mitigation towards the 2-degree target are still largely insufficient in literature, especially from a sectoral perspective. Objectives This study aims to (1) evaluate PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on China's road transport sector at both national and provi...
Presentation
Full-text available
This presentation gives an overview of the IMED model and its application in assessing energy and climate policies in China and the world.
Article
In this study, we have analyzed possible policy options to improve the air quality in an industrialized region - Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH) in China. A comprehensive model framework integrating GAINS-China, GEOS-Chem, and IMED/HEL is established to investigate the impacts of various policies on air pollution and health effects. The model esta...
Article
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Many studies have reported associations between air pollution and health impacts, but few studies have explicitly differentiated the economic effects of PM2.5 and ozone at China's regional level. This study compares the PM2.5 and ozone pollution-related health impacts based on an integrated approach. The research framework combines an air pollutant...
Article
This study provides a feasible approach for decreasing the carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry (ISI) by 2030 using the environmental-economic simulation model. The ISI and its upstream industries are optimized by introducing both technological upgrades and environmental policies. Six scenarios are designed, including business-as-usu...
Article
Sectoral adjustment for China’s export is vital to transform the Chinese economic structure so that high-quality development can be achieved. However, it is unknown to what extent export restructuring will affect the national economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study quantifies the potential economic and CO2 emission impacts of export...
Article
Carbon mitigation strategies have been developed without sufficient consideration of their impacts on the water system. Here, our study evaluates whether carbon mitigation strategies would decrease or increase local industrial water use and water-related pollutants discharge by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with a water...
Article
Millions of households in many underdeveloped countries use coal stoves for heating, which remains a major air pollution source. Since 2015, policies for substituting residential coal use with electricity have been implemented at unprecedented levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the most severely air polluted areas in China. Th...
Article
Integrated Assessment Models based on Computable General Equilibrium (IAM/CGE) and dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dynamic MFA) are two most widely used prospective model families to assess large-scale and long-term socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) and inform sustainable SEM transition. The latter approach could complement the former by a more explic...
Article
In the Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C. A more ambitious target of 1.5 °C also appears in the agreement. In order to address whether this target is achievable or not, studies about the 1.5 °C target's emission pathway are essential. Recently a few studies have presented modelling results of the global emissi...
Article
Energy and water systems are interdependent and have complex dynamic interactions with the socioeconomic system and climate change. Few tools exist to aid decision-making regarding the management of water and energy resources at a watershed level. In this study, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and System Dynamics and Water Environmenta...
Article
As one of the most cost-effective means of carbon emission reduction, carbon tax has attracted considerable attention from economists and international organizations. This study applied a two-region dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to discover how differentiated carbon taxes among regions would affect the competitiveness of local...
Article
Climate change mitigation involves reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which is expensive, particularly under stringent mitigation targets. The co-benefits of reducing air pollutants and improving human health are often ignored, but can play significant roles in decision-making. In this study, we quantified the co-benefit...
Article
Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States (US), the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the int...
Article
Keywords: Material footprint Raw material consumption Material flow analysis Input-output analysis Structural decomposition analysis China A B S T R A C T Liaoning Province is one of the most important industrial bases in China that is confronting the challenges of resource restriction during the rapid industrialization and urbanization process. To...
Article
It is necessary to measure the economic impacts of the attempts to achieve China’s carbon emission intensity reduction target. Consequently, this study analyzes the economic impacts of the differentiated CO2 intensity targets between Guangxi Province and the rest of China. An improved two-region computable general equilibrium model with eight scena...
Article
Full-text available
It is critical to adapt to climate change and reduce the overall carbon emissions. China announced its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the Paris climate conference in 2015. The carbon cap-and-trade scheme, which plays a key role in carbon emissions abatement, is an effective policy for China to achieve its NDC. This study focuses on th...
Article
Economic impact assessments of air pollution-related health effects from a sectoral perspective in China is still deficient. This study evaluates the PM 2.5 pollution-related health impacts of the road transport sector on China's economy at both national and provincial levels in 2030 under various air mitigation technologies scenarios. Health impac...
Article
Carbon tax is regarded as a useful policy instrument to achieve the environmental target efficiently. However, the effect of regional unbalanced carbon tax is still unknown. In this study, an improved two-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to fill this research gap with Liaoning Province and the rest of China (ROC) as th...
Article
The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model could capture the full range of interaction and feedback effects among different agents in the economic system. This study analyzes the economic impacts of differentiated carbon reduction targets by using a two-region CGE model in Tianjin Municipal City of China (hereafter “Tianjin”). Firstly, based on...
Article
This study evaluates the economic impact of achieving China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) through emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy policy, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. We explored the behavior of different sectors in the carbon market, carbon trade amount, carbon price and the econo...
Article
Full-text available
On one hand, natural resources and energy provide the basis for life on earth, but waste and emissions are produced during their throughput on the other hand. China, as the most populous country and an emerging economic powerhouse, has taken on the challenge of hitting peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030. Pursuing resource co-benefits from...
Article
Full-text available
Many studies have reported associations between ozone pollution and morbidity and mortality, but few studies focus on the health and economic effects at China's regional level. This study evaluates the ozone pollution-related health impacts on China's national and provincial economy and compares them with the impacts from PM2.5. We also explore the...
Article
Electric power generation poses a high stress to the water supply in China. In this study, we quantified China's water consumption by electricity generation from 2015 to 2030 by considering different scenarios of electric power generation structure and water consumption intensity, and analyzed water consumption by different sources of electric powe...
Article
Both air pollutant and carbon emissions are serious problems in China, particularly the economic and pollution intensive urban agglomerations. Therefore, this paper selected the most severely polluted Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei urban clusters) to study the potential of mitigating both carbon and air pollutant emission. The Compu...
Chapter
This study investigates the options and sectors that are essential for China to achieve carbon emissions peak by 2030. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to generate 14 scenarios from a scenario matrix incorporating three levels of carbon constraints and four options of low-carbon measures. Results suggest that if there is...
Chapter
India has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 33-35% in the year 2030 compared to 2005 level in its Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDC). The goal of limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 °C was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement adopted under UNFCCC. This chapter assesses three scenarios for India spa...
Chapter
Under the Paris Agreement, parties would set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change risk. The international carbon emissions trading (ET) is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here we show the benefit of ET under both NDCs. The results show that the global welfare lo...
Article
With fast development, it is not easy for China to achieve carbon reduction targets only by traditional command and control measures (e.g., the measures for energy-efficiency). Carbon tax is advocated as one effective complementary measure and has high possibility to be implemented for China’s future low carbon development. Under such a circumstanc...
Article
Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU), and Japan are assessed under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2 °C scenarios due to the changed emission pathway of t...
Article
Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, this article explains the driving forces behind U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impacts of this withdrawal on the compliance prospects of the agreement, and proposes how China should respond. The withdrawal undercuts the foundation of global cli...
Article
The Chinese government has committed to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit gross domestic product by 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030. In order to achieve this commitment, various measures should be taken. Due to the complex relationship between carbon emission and economic development, it is critical to quantify the impacts of different m...
Article
应用全球多部门、多区域动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,采用情景分析方法,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》后,由于其碳排放路径的变化对国际气候谈判中的3个重要谈判方中国、欧盟和日本实现国家自主贡献(NDC)和2℃目标情景下碳排放空间和减排成本的影响。结果表明:在全球碳排放固定且分配方式固定的条件下,美国不同程度的退约将为自身获得较大的碳排放空间,同时挤压其他地区,包括中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳排放空间,将推高中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2^∘C目标的碳价。2030年,2℃目标下中国碳价的升幅将达4.4~14.6美元/t,欧盟为9.7~35.4美元/t,日本为16.0~53.5美元/t。同时将增加中国、欧盟和日本等其他国家和地区的GDP损失。2030年,2℃目标下中国GDP损失的升幅将达...
Article
A passenger transport model, Asia-pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Transport, incorporating travelers’ mode of choice and transport technological details was developed in this study. This AIM/Transport was coupled with the AIM/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to capture interactive mechanisms between the transport sector, energy consumption,...
Article
Full-text available
A bottom-up passenger transport model named AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model)/Transport model is developed by incorporating behavioral parameters and transportation technological details. This model is based on discrete based choice modelling covering 17 global regions soft-linked with the AIM/CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In this p...